Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[jostar1]

Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerCBS · May 21
For talk of BYU getting muscled out of Power 5 scheduling, how many schools, TV rev aside, are really more powerful than BYU? Def not all 65

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerCBS · May 21
For talk of BYU getting muscled out of Power 5 scheduling, how many schools, TV rev aside, are really more powerful than BYU? Def not all 65

Jeremy, you mean to tell me there are "G5" schools more powerful than "P5" schools?! Groundbreaking.

 

[Dooley]

Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerCBS · May 21
For talk of BYU getting muscled out of Power 5 scheduling, how many schools, TV rev aside, are really more powerful than BYU? Def not all 65

The last little bit is the most important when we start talking splits, grandfathered deadweights, and long down the road...possibly lawsuits. The P5 conferences can't continue to shut out schools because they say so. BYU not being in a P5 model is absolutely ridiculous - I'd say they are a bigger football brand than more than half of the B12 and PAC12 conferences. They'd be a good partner with us in 5-10 years for a lawsuit if we aren't any closer to a P5 conference than where we are today.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Dan Wolken ‏@DanWolken 5h
Wyoming AD seems to think not everyone in the Mountain West will do “full cost of attendance” http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/wyoming-athletics-prepares-to-face-potential-ncaa-autonomy-changes/article_262c3059-5a7a-579b-9451-787d3c2190c0.html…

 

[OkaForPrez]

Dan Wolken ‏@DanWolken 5h
Wyoming AD seems to think not everyone in the Mountain West will do “full cost of attendance” http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/wyoming-athletics-prepares-to-face-potential-ncaa-autonomy-changes/article_262c3059-5a7a-579b-9451-787d3c2190c0.html…

Interesting coincidence. The 36 million in revenue figure that the Wyoming AD cites they need to be at to afford COA? That's the cutline for the 64 top revenue programs in the country according to this link.

 

[noeynox]

That is a good article. I keep expecting a new league to form on an east/west split, of schools that want to go all in. They have to fight fort equal access to the playoffs.

 

[SAMCRO]

That is a good article. I keep expecting a new league to form on an east/west split, of schools that want to go all in. They have to fight fort equal access to the playoffs.

I'm guessing that is what will eventually happen, an East/West league (or two leagues with scheduling/championship game alignment) to accomodate those non P5 schools who are committed to going all in. This "thinning" process by the P5's will have the desirred effect, and you probably end up with another 20+/- schools outside the P5 who make a run at playing by the same rules that will eventually be established by the P5. I wish them all luck and hope they find every success, as I truly believe UConn will be in a P5 when the dust settles.

 

[itgoeslike]

Interesting coincidence. The 36 million in revenue figure that the Wyoming AD cites they need to be at to afford COA? That's the cutline for the 64 top revenue programs in the country according to this link.

Landthieves has a thread titled: Conference Realignment Part VII where some were kicking around similar cutoffs, which could include as many as 70+ teams. I'm not sure if the link will work but here goes.

http://www.landthieves.com/board/sh...ally-tied-the-room-together-did-it-not/page48

If the P5 continues to shut out UConn, it should adopt an "if you can't join 'em, beat 'em" policy and offer its ten "franchise" players each a Corvette. Per the article, it works out to be about the same cost, perhaps slightly less. I'm thinking we may get some 4-star recruits. . .

 

[B1Gtymer]

Interesting coincidence. The 36 million in revenue figure that the Wyoming AD cites they need to be at to afford COA? That's the cutline for the 64 top revenue programs in the country according to this link.

Long time lurker first time poster. What's really interesting to me is if you take the 64 teams from that cutoff and add the 16 private schools that were a part of an AQ conference during the BCS era (technically there were only 15 but I'm adding BYU because they deserve to be) that equals a nice round 80 number. I think the split will occur with somewhere between a minimum of 64 and maximum of 80 schools, with either four or five conferences. With 80 schools we could see either five conferences with 16 schools each or four conferences with 20 schools each. With UConn at 42 on that list you would assume they'd get in no matter what, but its a catch 22 because I also think that if there are 80 schools in the power league and it consolidates into four conferences of 20 teams each, there is less of a chance UConn gets into the B1G, which is where I prefer them. It doesn't seem right that if there are MORE slots available in the B1G that its LESS likely for UConn to get one but here is my theory...

IF the conferences consolidate down to four AND 80 teams are in play then the following happens....

3 conferences (B1G, SEC and PAC) are safe while the ACC or B12 will die and along with it the GOR for that conference. Jim Delany will be after the best of either conference.
If the B1G has a chance for Texas they will go after them and likely add Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech. I realize KSU, OSU and TTU are not desirable to the B1G but these schools will likely be tied legally to their better halves and if the B1G can get Texas/OU/KU i think they will make exceptions for KSU/OSU/TTU.

The other option for the B1G would be to carve out the best of the ACC by taking Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Notre Dame. Some say the B1G will never take Duke because they are private and the B1G can control the state of NC with just UNC but I don't think UNC and Duke would ever agree to split. Also some say FSU is a no go because of no AAU and ND will never join a conference but A) UConn's argument is that they are close to attaining AAU status and so is FSU according to some sources and B) if the B1G destroys Notre Dame's home again I think they will be forced to join the B1G, no way they would join the SEC, B12 or PAC.

So in either of those cases, if the B1G has 6 available slots and the ability to carve out schools from either the B12 or the ACC then they will likely not take UConn. My preference...80 schools, 5 conferences, 16 schools each. If all five current power conferences stay intact and 80 schools are invited to the new power league UConn has its best chance at the B1G because ACC and B12 schools would likely be off limits to the B1G.

My ideal B1G final set up:

East - Connecticut, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
North - Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue
Central - Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Northwestern
West - Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Northwestern and Wisconsin could be switched to provider more competitive balance. If Notre Dame continues with their snubbing of the B1G I would like to see like the B1G take a chance at Missouri. I know Missouri is likely solid in the SEC because its the best conference, but Missouri has always had an interest in the B1G so why not try again. If you can sway a school away from the SEC then the B1G would have successfully stolen teams from the B12, ACC, AAC and SEC which would really prove its dominance (at least financially).

East - Connecticut, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
North - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Central - Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
West - Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska

And finally...because I have a soft spot for Iowa State, my ultimate (albeit not in a million years likely so don't start giving me all the reasons why Iowa State will never be in the B1G because I already know them) scenario. Screw Notre Dame and screw GORs.

East - Connecticut, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
North - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Central - Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
West - Iowa, Iowa Sate, Minnesota, Nebraska

20 team B1G scenarios:

1 - The B12 annex

East - Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West - Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
North - Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin
South - Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

2 - The ACC annex

East - Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West - Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Central - Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
South - Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia

Hope for the max 80 schools getting into P5 conferences NOT P4 conferences, that way the B1G is forced to look elsewhere besides B12 and ACC, if so no way UConn doesn't go B1G.

 

[kyleslamb]

If (when) the third subdivision is implemented, I don't think the cutoff point is going to be drawn arbitrarily at threshold of the 64th team.

What they'll do is set the bar slightly lower in terms of revenue, but require a higher number of varsity sports sponsored as well as full COA. Initially, the five power conferences will be grandfathered in and anyone wishing to join will either a) require an invite from an existing conference or b) must form a new league. However, the new league will need at least 6 or 8 teams that all meet the existing eligibility thresholds.

From what I've heard, and more from my own educated speculation, it will be something like $25-30 million annually in revenue, attendance of at least 20,000 over a rolling period, at least 16 varsity sports sponsored with 200 or more FTE grants-in-aid and at least $2,500 per year per equivalent scholarship in COA.

 

[clmssun]

If (when) the third subdivision is implemented, I don't think the cutoff point is going to be drawn arbitrarily at threshold of the 64th team.

What they'll do is set the bar slightly lower in terms of revenue, but require a higher number of varsity sports sponsored as well as full COA. Initially, the five power conferences will be grandfathered in and anyone wishing to join will either a) require an invite from an existing conference or b) must form a new league. However, the new league will need at least 6 or 8 teams that all meet the existing eligibility thresholds.

From what I've heard, and more from my own educated speculation, it will be something like $25-30 million annually in revenue, attendance of at least 20,000 over a rolling period, at least 16 varsity sports sponsored with 200 or more FTE grants-in-aid and at least $2,500 per year per equivalent scholarship in COA.

"attendance" = "enrollment" or "athletic event attendance"?

 

[kyleslamb]

"attendance" = "enrollment" or "athletic event attendance"?

Apologize for not being clear... I meant football attendance.

 

[whaler11]

If (when) the third subdivision is implemented, I don't think the cutoff point is going to be drawn arbitrarily at threshold of the 64th team.

What they'll do is set the bar slightly lower in terms of revenue, but require a higher number of varsity sports sponsored as well as full COA. Initially, the five power conferences will be grandfathered in and anyone wishing to join will either a) require an invite from an existing conference or b) must form a new league. However, the new league will need at least 6 or 8 teams that all meet the existing eligibility thresholds.

From what I've heard, and more from my own educated speculation, it will be something like $25-30 million annually in revenue, attendance of at least 20,000 over a rolling period, at least 16 varsity sports sponsored with 200 or more FTE grants-in-aid and at least $2,500 per year per equivalent scholarship in COA.

This seems reasonable and plausible. I still don't see how the teams in that 'division' but outside of a conference aren't screwed.

 

[woomba]

If (when) the third subdivision is implemented, I don't think the cutoff point is going to be drawn arbitrarily at threshold of the 64th team.

What they'll do is set the bar slightly lower in terms of revenue, but require a higher number of varsity sports sponsored as well as full COA. Initially, the five power conferences will be grandfathered in and anyone wishing to join will either a) require an invite from an existing conference or b) must form a new league. However, the new league will need at least 6 or 8 teams that all meet the existing eligibility thresholds.

From what I've heard, and more from my own educated speculation, it will be something like $25-30 million annually in revenue, attendance of at least 20,000 over a rolling period, at least 16 varsity sports sponsored with 200 or more FTE grants-in-aid and at least $2,500 per year per equivalent scholarship in COA.

This seems to be the consensus view on the different boards of how breakaway will look like - it'll probably be closer to 80 teams total when all said and done made up of P5, AAC, and the remaining teams that can afford to spend that much on athletics.

 

[kyleslamb]

This seems reasonable and plausible. I still don't see how the teams in that 'division' but outside of a conference aren't screwed.

Sadly, that's what ultimately will happen. What's worse is that if they bump the conference membership minimum to eight teams, even a league like the AAC might not meet the requirements for inclusion, as-is. So in order for those teams to move up, they'd have to find an even bigger hodgepodge of members to make it work. That could wind up seeing a league that stretches from Storrs to San Diego and points in between.

The only bright side is that I suspect they'll still funnel *some* revenue down to the middle subdivision and FCS as they do now, or they might just wind up combining the leftovers of FBS with FCS.

 

[whaler11]

Sadly, that's what ultimately will happen. What's worse is that if they bump the conference membership minimum to eight teams, even a league like the AAC might not meet the requirements for inclusion, as-is. So in order for those teams to move up, they'd have to find an even bigger hodgepodge of members to make it work. That could wind up seeing a league that stretches from Storrs to San Diego and points in between.

The only bright side is that I suspect they'll still funnel *some* revenue down to the middle subdivision and FCS as they do now, or they might just wind up combining the leftovers of FBS with FCS.

While the revenue is important it still seems impossible to recruit once the delination becomes that clear.

 

[kyleslamb]

While the revenue is important it still seems impossible to recruit once the delination becomes that clear.

I still think UConn fans need not worry, though. When the dust settles, they'll wind up in a major league IMHO. I still believe it will eventually be the Big Ten.

 

[whaler11]

I still think UConn fans need not worry, though. When the dust settles, they'll wind up in a major league IMHO. I still believe it will eventually be the Big Ten.

Hope you are right. To me UConn to the Big Ten is a creation of Boneyard posters who have talked each other into it.

 

[kyleslamb]

Hope you are right. To me UConn to the Big Ten is a creation of Boneyard posters who have talked each other into it.

If it helps, there are a lot of Big Ten fans and non-Big Ten fans alike that think it's eventually going to happen. So it's not just Boneyarders that think it.

 

[whaler11]

If it helps, there are a lot of Big Ten fans and non-Big Ten fans alike that think it's eventually going to happen. So it's not just Boneyarders that think it.

You mean the ones posting here or a few stray people in Connecticut?

Sadly it's a figment of some strong imaginations based on nothing.

 

[Fishy]

The hive gets angry when people say stuff like that.

My biggest worry is that we can see the ropes being thrown up around the P5 and there is absolutely no movement towards further expansion. (Please don't bother me with stories about how quiet it always is before storm - nothing is happening because nothing is happening.)

It seems impossible that a school with a $65-70M athletic is on the wrong side, but we are - no one with a bigger budget is outside of the P5 and a couple of dozen in the P5 are behind us. (I have a feeling that we'll fall down that list pretty quickly as the P5 spends their booty - I think $80-85M athletic budgets will be the norm and we'll be marked down by comparison.)

Again, it seems impossible, but right now, it's the odds-on scenario.

 

[RMoore1999]

If it helps, there are a lot of Big Ten fans and non-Big Ten fans alike that think it's eventually going to happen. So it's not just Boneyarders that think it.

Wallowing in negativity is a favorite pastime of many in this State. Pessimism is a badge of honor too many wear proudly.

I have no idea if or when UConn will end up in the B1G or some comparable conference, though I do think its more likely than not that we will eventually. In the meantime, I'll excitedly watch Ollie, Diaco and the others grow their programs while optimistically awaiting UConn's ascension to a sustainable conference of similarly situated institutions.

 

[RMoore1999]

The hive gets angry when people say stuff like that.

My biggest worry is that we can see the ropes being thrown up around the P5 and there is absolutely no movement towards further expansion. (Please don't bother me with stories about how quiet it always is before storm - nothing is happening because nothing is happening.)

It seems impossible that a school with a $65-70M athletic is on the wrong side, but we are - no one with a bigger budget is outside of the P5 and a couple of dozen in the P5 are behind us. (I have a feeling that we'll fall down that list pretty quickly as the P5 spends their booty - I think $80-85M athletic budgets will be the norm and we'll be marked down by comparison.)

Again, it seems impossible, but right now, it's the odds-on scenario.

EDIT: Wallowing in negativity is a favorite pastime of many UConn fans in and out of State.

 

[whaler11]

EDIT: Wallowing in negativity is a favorite pastime of many UConn fans in and out of State.

Reality does not equal negativity. That some prefer to enjoy fantasies to reality does not make realists negative.

 

[RMoore1999]

Reality does not equal negativity. That some prefer to enjoy fantasies to reality does not make realists negative.

Reality is that UConn is currently not B1G nor a member of any other P5 league.

The reality of UConn's conference home in 2018, 2020 0r 2022, is neither known by me or any other optimist, nor by Fishy, you or any of the other pessimists.

Time will tell...