Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[bobbyinaz]

I don't see any way a Big 12 team leaves for the ACC -- right now. If something were to happen to the ACC TV deal to disrupt it, possibly, but what's the incentive for ESPN to do that? They have the ACC long-term = 9 more years for a bargain. Big 12 has momentum. The two leaving teams haven't played in the Big 12 football championship in the last two years. They will have had teams in the 4-team playoffs in back to back years (Cincinnati + TCU) -- with zero appearances for the ACC.

The Big 12 has back to back national championships in basketball and are adding Houston and Cincinnati. Their TV expires well before the ACCs so they can re-up again. They've had really solid ratings on non-Texlahoma teams. TV rights values are close to a wash.

The other thing the B12 offers is long term stability. It's not going to pay them the most money but the schools know where they stand. None of it's members are targets for the SEC or B1G (some may think Kansas is a B1G target but I don't) so they are what they are. Depending on how things shake out with the PAC they may even get to expand.

While the new B12 contract is only for 6 years, it is based on the current conference makeup. The ACC contract runs for another 13 years but it's likely that half it's members have at least 1 foot out the door and would be gone in seconds if not for the GOR. And, as you said, the TV money is basically the same.

When the smoke clears (and it may not be until the ACC GOR expires) the B12 will likely be the 3rd best conference after the SEC & B1G. Who knows what the ACC will look like.

 

[Kolumbo]

The Big 12 was in trouble losing 2 of the biggest brands in the country, but then it added Cincy, Houston and BYU and then the Pac 12 lost 2 of the biggest brands in the country. Suddenly the Big 12 looks strong. Plus it really can go in any direction, east - west - north. To me the most intriguing move could be made by the corner schools because geographically they fit the Pac 12 or the Big 12 and they could determine which conference lands 3rd and by how much. I have to believe the people in Phoenix and Tucson are very intrigued too.

 

[billybud]

Brands still count....even brands in an off season.

Despite Oklahoma's 6-6 year...the FSU-Oklahoma bowl was the most watched of the non NY6 bowls.

What is worrying to many fans..is with the NIL, how do you compete with the big money NIL programs?

Will, over time, the paid athletes drift towards the money? Many worry about this dynamic.

 

[bobbyinaz]

The Big 12 was in trouble losing 2 of the biggest brands in the country, but then it added Cincy, Houston and BYU and then the Pac 12 lost 2 of the biggest brands in the country. Suddenly the Big 12 looks strong. Plus it really can go in any direction, east - west - north. To me the most intriguing move could be made by the corner schools because geographically they fit the Pac 12 or the Big 12 and they could determine which conference lands 3rd and by how much. I have to believe the people in Phoenix and Tucson are very intrigued too.

I think Colorado & Utah are waiting to see what the new PAC deal looks like in terms of money and exposure before they make any commitments either way.

UofA & ASU may be caught in a tough spot. They not only need access to California athletes but, they rely on California kids making up a big part of their out of state student body contingent as well. Disconnecting from a California based conference may have a bigger affect on the overall school finances and not just the athletic departments.

As you said they could also look east and grab some leftovers from the ACC when/if it blows up. Schools like VaTech & Louisville may prefer them to whatever the ACC is.

All of these reasons are why I think the B12 ends up #3 when it's all over.

 

[Rufus]

The PAC and ACC can be raided by the B1G and SEC. The Big 12 didn’t have any brand names left in football, so it is safe from a B1G or SEC raid. This gives the Big 12 better positioning.

The PAC most likely only needs to worry about a B1G raid. The SEC is not likely to raid the PAC and the Big 12 is not likely to raid the PAC unless the B1G takes Oregon and Washington first.

The ACC, while having the longest GOR in place, is arguably the least stable. Both the B1G and SEC are likely to raid eventually. Does anyone honestly think Clemson, Florida State or Miami will sign another GOR with the ACC after 2036? They are off to the B1G or SEC. Georgia Tech (for the B1G only), Virginia and North Carolina are likely targets as well. Virginia Tech and Duke might be targets. The rest? Not so much.

 

[Rufus]

I also don’t believe the P2 will be a true north/south split. The B1G is going to want some presence in the south from a recruiting perspective. If it markets itself a national conference, it will need southern representation as well.

The SEC will not want Georgia Tech. The B1G might.

The SEC will not want Miami. The B1G might.

The interesting battle to me will be the schools who may have interest from both conferences: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, North Carolina. Academically, FSU and Clemson fit better with the SEC while UVA and UNC fit better with the B1G. However, I’m sure the SEC would love to improve its academic profile with UVA and UNC. The B1G would love to add more football brands and the only brands not in the P2 are Notre Dame, Oregon, Florida State, Clemson and Miami.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Nothing in realignment is done w/basketball in mind. Nothing. We are Exhibit A.

I don’t get the B12 momentum stuff. Once bevo and boomer leave, what’s left? A bunch of directional community colleges and Kansas? I get the P12 is reeling, but the B12? It’s the best of the AAC and MWC.

B12 momentum is real - arguably the best basketball conference for the past few years (with multiple recent natty's) and their football is in the third slot behind SEC and B1G (with very committed fan bases). Not sure why you're not impressed? Your comment about directional community colleges shows you don't value any of these schools at all and if that were true, then what is UConn?

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Tallahassee has been my home since 1975...Still have my home there although I spend more time at my North Carolina house.

You are right about FSU fans...they never liked the ACC too much anyway and really don't like the BC and Cuse additions.

Tallahassee's northern county line abuts Georgia, the pan handle borders Alabama, and there are piles of Florida Gator grads in the city...The Noles primary rival is the University of Florida....

The fans yearn for playing the SEC...they played LSU this season and will play them next, have home and homes with Alabama and Georgia scheduled, and of course play Florida every year.

Many are hoping for a media collaboration that ends up with a P2 that looks like a north and south league that, of course, includes them.

Two schools that aren’t in the leagues really make the most sense- FSU not in the SEC and UConn not in the ACC.

 

[uconndogs]

Will, over time, the paid athletes drift towards the money?

Without a doubt. My sense is that the NIL money is still getting figured out and it will only grow in scope. It will turn into pay for play and some very young people are going to gravitate to where the money is. Personally, I find it very disappointing.

 

[billybud]

I also don’t believe the P2 will be a true north/south split. The B1G is going to want some presence in the south from a recruiting perspective. If it markets itself a national conference, it will need southern representation as well.

The SEC will not want Georgia Tech. The B1G might.

The SEC will not want Miami. The B1G might.

The interesting battle to me will be the schools who may have interest from both conferences: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, North Carolina. Academically, FSU and Clemson fit better with the SEC while UVA and UNC fit better with the B1G. However, I’m sure the SEC would love to improve its academic profile with UVA and UNC. The B1G would love to add more football brands and the only brands not in the P2 are Notre Dame, Oregon, Florida State, Clemson and Miami.

Rufus....."academically, FSU and Clemson fit better with the SEC"

While FSU is not yet AAU...FSU does rank higher on the USNWR rankings than Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana,Iowa, and Michigan State..

But I do not see a Florida team as a good fit geographically.

 

[CL82]

Your comment about directional community colleges shows you don't value any of these schools at all and if that were true, then what is UConn?

A Land Grant university? A Carnegie R1 University? The 26th ranked public university? I mean those things all come to mind.

 

[dayooper]

Rufus....."academically, FSU and Clemson fit better with the SEC"

While FSU is not yet AAU...FSU does rank higher on the USNWR rankings than Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana,Iowa, and Michigan State..

But I do not see a Florida team as a good fit geographically.

Geography isn’t much of a factor anymore with the Big10. I personally think FSU is at the top of the Big10’s wish list. I couldn’t tell you if the feeling is mutual with the school (seems fans are partial to the SEC), but my guess is that the Big10 would not turn down FSU. If the Noles were worried about partners, my guess is that could be fixed with Miami and GT.

 

[CL82]

Geography isn’t much of a factor anymore with the Big10. I personally think FSU is at the top of the Big10’s wish list. I couldn’t tell you if the feeling is mutual with the school (seems fans are partial to the SEC), but my guess is that the Big10 would not turn down FSU. If the Noles were worried about partners, my guess is that could be fixed with Miami and GT.

If that would help Connecticut’s shot at it ACC bid considerably. Personally, I am hoping for an Big 10/SEC bidding war.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

A Land Grant university? A Carnegie R1 University? The 26th ranked public university? I mean those things all come to mind.

I know what UConn is. My point is that he isn't giving much credit to the B12 schools. While none are super great, they're not directional community colleges either.

 

[TheCatsLair]

Nothing in realignment is done w/basketball in mind. Nothing. We are Exhibit A.

I don’t get the B12 momentum stuff. Once bevo and boomer leave, what’s left? A bunch of directional community colleges and Kansas? I get the P12 is reeling, but the B12? It’s the best of the AAC and MWC.

First off I want to say hi, new to the board. Also, this is a lazy narrative. Iowa State is not a "directional community college" they were just in the AAU. Cincinnati is a powerhouse research school as well with Top notch academics. The Big 12's academics are fine for the most part and saying it is the best of the AAC and MWC when it is #3 in ratings numbers and has a school playing for a football national championship and has been two the last 3 basketball national championships (winning the last 2) makes that attack silly. I think most UConn fans respect the Big 12 though they prefer the ACC for obvious reasons. I just had to respond to that attack on the Big 12. The same goes for the Big East, someone said that it would be a mid-major if UConn left. It was a great conference made better with the addition of UConn. And if/when UConn gets a P5 invite the Big East will still be a great conference. UConn would be a tough loss but the Big Eas would still be a P6.

 

[Eavesdrop]

Geography isn’t much of a factor anymore with the Big10. I personally think FSU is at the top of the Big10’s wish list. I couldn’t tell you if the feeling is mutual with the school (seems fans are partial to the SEC), but my guess is that the Big10 would not turn down FSU. If the Noles were worried about partners, my guess is that could be fixed with Miami and GT.

Billy is correct. If given a choice between the SEC and Big Ten, the majority of Florida State alumni/fans would choose the SEC. However, there is a decent sized minority that would vote for the Big Ten. My guess is the current split is something like 70% to 30% (plus or minus 5%).

The thing is that most of those who prefer the SEC understand the university might not have a choice. And nearly all of them would prefer to move to the Big Ten rather than stay in the ACC.

 

[uconndogs]

I think the BiG and SEC have a "wink and a nod" to stay largely north and south. They know they need each other to carve out the best markets for themselves. So I don't think FSU will have much choice in the matter assuming the GOR issue can ever be addressed.

 

[CL82]

I know what UConn is.

Then why’d you ask?

 

[gioff2323]

I know what UConn is. My point is that he isn't giving much credit to the B12 schools. While none are super great, they're not directional community colleges either.

You have a brilliant child in hs. Where are they applying - Iowa state? Ok state? KSU? Baylor? BYU? Ucf? Houston?

You’re right, I’m giving them no credit. In fairness, I’m giving their academic prowess as much credit as I do your comments about basketball - no one cares about Bball in terms of conf realignment. NOONE.

 

[TheCatsLair]

You have a brilliant child in hs. Where are they applying - Iowa state? Ok state? KSU? Baylor? BYU? Ucf? Houston?

You’re right, I’m giving them no credit. In fairness, I’m giving their academic prowess as much credit as I do your comments about basketball - no one cares about Bball in terms of conf realignment. NOONE.

So you're criticizing academic institutions based on athletics? Because those are quality academic institutions but you're criticizing them because of conferences. I mean Iowa State was an AAU school as recently as last year and they would still qualify as one now but they withdrew on their own. You criticize the University of Cincinnati's academics but they are considered a top tier academics institution and are likely one of the next 2 or 3 schools to be invited to the AAU when it expands again.

 

[Slasher]

You have a brilliant child in hs. Where are they applying - Iowa state? Ok state? KSU? Baylor? BYU? Ucf? Houston?

You’re right, I’m giving them no credit. In fairness, I’m giving their academic prowess as much credit as I do your comments about basketball - no one cares about Bball in terms of conf realignment. NOONE.

Dumb argument, but a truly brilliant child isn't going to any school that has a real football/basketball team. Ivy League schools, MIT, CIT, Johns Hopkins, maybe Stanford. Those kids aren't going to UNC or Ohio State.

 

[billybud]

So you're criticizing academic institutions based on athletics? Because those are quality academic institutions but you're criticizing them because of conferences. I mean Iowa State was an AAU school as recently as last year and they would still qualify as one now but they withdrew on their own. You criticize the University of Cincinnati's academics but they are considered a top tier academics institution and are likely one of the next 2 or 3 schools to be invited to the AAU when it expands again.

Iowa State is a good uni...but ranked by USNWR far below Clemson, Georgia, NC State and below USF, Auburn, South Carolina, and Tennessee....

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

You have a brilliant child in hs. Where are they applying - Iowa state? Ok state? KSU? Baylor? BYU? Ucf? Houston?

You’re right, I’m giving them no credit. In fairness, I’m giving their academic prowess as much credit as I do your comments about basketball - no one cares about Bball in terms of conf realignment. NOONE.

I didn't say that basketball was the driver of conference realignment - you just dragged that in.

You were the one broad-stroking how the B12 is so awful academically... I would be open minded to consider any institution of higher learning. It would depend on so many factors and I would imagine that a brilliant kid could thrive in so many environments.

 

[TheCatsLair]

Iowa State is a good uni...but ranked by USNWR far below Clemson, Georgia, NC State and below USF, Auburn, South Carolina, and Tennessee....

Which are all good schools. Also USNWR is more of a popularity poll as opposed to a real technical poll.

 

[CL82]

Which are all good schools. Also USNWR is more of a popularity poll as opposed to a real technical poll.

I don’t know if it’s a popularity poll, per se, but its metrics are easily, and often, manipulated by schools. It is a popular reference though.