Offshores post the lines at low maximums and the market sets it from there as the maximums get larger.
Everyone in Vegas moves on air based on what the legitimate offshores do - i.e Pinnacle. The terrible companies that run the books in Vegas just piggyback what offshore already solved for.
You can watch it happen all day with any odds service. Pinnacle, Bookmaker and CRIS move and everyone moves right along with them.
The idea that everyone is trying to take equal money can be disproven just by watching the lines for one game... say UConn and Syracuse Saturday.
On 9/19 Pinnacle moved UConn to -5.5 at around 10am. William Hill opened UConn at -5.5 that afternoon.
At 5:37 Pinnacle moved UConn to -4.5 and at 5:43 to -4. William Hill at 5:45 moved UConn to... -4.
Now did William Hill take enough money in 8 minutes to move the line 1.5 points or did they just follow a book that actually takes risk from legitimate players? Are they really going to balance the plays following someone else's line moves?
WH follows the line bouncing around at Pinny for the next few days. On the 22nd at 4:46 Pinnacle moves the line to UConn -3 for the first time. I wonder what happened at William Hill... in less than an hour they hit -3 for the first time.
Two lessons here:
1. Nobody can possibly try and take equal money on both sides while
moving on air. If you follow the market regardless of what you've taken clearly you aren't trying to take half in each side.
2. Vegas doesn't set any lines. The market is already liquid and the lines have been hammered before any of the lame companies in Vegas even post a line.
My advise to you is to have a conversation with the CFO of any of the public or private casinos that have large sports book operations. They can explain how their risk management on sports betting works. They capture and vig and want as little "risk" as possible.
I will admit to not know much about WH financials--maybe they want risk. Maybe they offload some in another way.
As for Uconn, I would imagine there's not a tremendous amount of action on this game a week before it's played. So moving lines and taking money may not be as important in an 8 min span. The line change indicates that early action was on Cuse and the 5.5pts was too much -- so they lower it to balance the action on UConn. If heading into Fri/Sat they aren't getting closer to balanced, you will see the lines move -- perhaps differently at one casino vs another.
Have you never been in Vegas when you can get a different line on a game at a different casino at the same time?
