Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell. | Page 240 | The Boneyard

Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

NYUConn said:
Exactly.

Unless the game is being picked by a German Octopus there is no way to set a logical line for the game.
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The market sets the line - and it has zero to do with Vegas.

The money line conversion at the close is easily the best indicator of a team's chance of winning.
 
whaler11 said:
I beg people to please stop posting this nonsense.

.
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It's actually the spread (-5) where Vegas believes there will be equal amounts of betting on both sides. That's the lowest risk/highest reward for sports book. So it's really an indication of where they think "consensus" is. If too much action is placed on either side, they will adjust the line to balance out the betting as best they can.

Oh wait did you say not to post that?
 
whaler11 said:
I beg people to please stop posting this nonsense.

We have been down this road 10,000 times. If you think this is the case you have no idea what you are talking about and should do everyone a favor and stop saying it.

And stop with 'Vegas'. Literally not a single college football line is set by 'Vegas'.
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whaler11 said:
The market sets the line - and it has zero to do with Vegas.

The money line conversion at the close is easily the best indicator of a team's chance of winning.
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The sport books actually pay a service to "set the line" -- its where the initial spread opens. The market then moves the line. Its the same thing with IPO pricing.
 
WhartonHusky said:
The sport books actually pay a service to "set the line" -- its where the initial spread opens. The market then moves the line. Its the same thing with IPO pricing.
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Offshores post the lines at low maximums and the market sets it from there as the maximums get larger.

Everyone in Vegas moves on air based on what the legitimate offshores do - i.e Pinnacle. The terrible companies that run the books in Vegas just piggyback what offshore already solved for.

You can watch it happen all day with any odds service. Pinnacle, Bookmaker and CRIS move and everyone moves right along with them.

The idea that everyone is trying to take equal money can be disproven just by watching the lines for one game... say UConn and Syracuse Saturday.


On 9/19 Pinnacle moved UConn to -5.5 at around 10am. William Hill opened UConn at -5.5 that afternoon.

At 5:37 Pinnacle moved UConn to -4.5 and at 5:43 to -4. William Hill at 5:45 moved UConn to... -4.

Now did William Hill take enough money in 8 minutes to move the line 1.5 points or did they just follow a book that actually takes risk from legitimate players? Are they really going to balance the plays following someone else's line moves?

WH follows the line bouncing around at Pinny for the next few days. On the 22nd at 4:46 Pinnacle moves the line to UConn -3 for the first time. I wonder what happened at William Hill... in less than an hour they hit -3 for the first time.

Two lessons here:
1. Nobody can possibly try and take equal money on both sides while
moving on air. If you follow the market regardless of what you've taken clearly you aren't trying to take half in each side.

2. Vegas doesn't set any lines. The market is already liquid and the lines have been hammered before any of the lame companies in Vegas even post a line.
 
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whaler11 said:
Offshores post the lines at low maximums and the market sets it from there as the maximums get larger.

Everyone in Vegas moves on air based on what the legitimate offshores do - i.e Pinnacle. The terrible companies that run the books in Vegas just piggyback what offshore already solved for.

You can watch it happen all day with any odds service. Pinnacle, Bookmaker and CRIS move and everyone moves right along with them.

The idea that everyone is trying to take equal money can be disproven just by watching the lines for one game... say UConn and Syracuse Saturday.


On 9/19 Pinnacle moved UConn to -5.5 at around 10am. William Hill opened UConn at -5.5 that afternoon.

At 5:37 Pinnacle moved UConn to -4.5 and at 5:43 to -4. William Hill at 5:45 moved UConn to... -4.

Now did William Hill take enough money in 8 minutes to move the line 1.5 points or did they just follow a book that actually takes risk from legitimate players? Are they really going to balance the plays following someone else's line moves?

WH follows the line bouncing around at Pinny for the next few days. On the 22nd at 4:46 Pinnacle moves the line to UConn -3 for the first time. I wonder what happened at William Hill... in less than an hour they hit -3 for the first time.

Two lessons here:
1. Nobody can possibly try and take equal money on both sides while
moving on air. If you follow the market regardless of what you've taken clearly you aren't trying to take half in each side.

2. Vegas doesn't set any lines. The market is already liquid and the lines have been hammered before any of the lame companies in Vegas even post a line.
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My advise to you is to have a conversation with the CFO of any of the public or private casinos that have large sports book operations. They can explain how their risk management on sports betting works. They capture and vig and want as little "risk" as possible.

I will admit to not know much about WH financials--maybe they want risk. Maybe they offload some in another way.

As for Uconn, I would imagine there's not a tremendous amount of action on this game a week before it's played. So moving lines and taking money may not be as important in an 8 min span. The line change indicates that early action was on Cuse and the 5.5pts was too much -- so they lower it to balance the action on UConn. If heading into Fri/Sat they aren't getting closer to balanced, you will see the lines move -- perhaps differently at one casino vs another.

Have you never been in Vegas when you can get a different line on a game at a different casino at the same time?
 
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WhartonHusky said:
My advise to you is to have a conversation with the CFO of any of the public or private casinos that have large sports book operations. They can explain how their risk management on sports betting works. They capture and vig and want as little "risk" as possible.

I will admit to not know much about WH financials--maybe they want risk. Maybe they offload some in another way.

As for Uconn, I would imagine there's not a tremendous amount of action on this game a week before it's played. So moving lines and taking money may not be as important in an 8 min span. The line change indicates that early action was on Cuse and the 5.5pts was too much -- so they lower it to balance the action on UConn. If heading into Fri/Sat they aren't getting closer to balanced, you will see the lines move -- perhaps differently at one casino vs another.

Have you never been in Vegas when you can get a different line on a game at a different casino at the same time?
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I spend 20-30 hours a week on this stuff at this time of year. I know exactly how the industry works and I know it inside and out.

If you want to believe that bookmakers are taking equal money on games, while looking at evidence that makes it clear that it is impossible - knock yourself out.
 
I invest in public companies (among them casinos) all times of the year for 20+ years. I know their financials inside and out. I never said they take exactly equal money on every game. It's theoretical. However, I do know how their risk management tools work.
 
WhartonHusky said:
I invest in public companies (among them casinos) all times of the year for 20+ years. I know their financials inside and out. I never said they take exactly equal money on every game. It's theoretical. However, I do know how their risk management tools work.
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They limit their risk very simply.

They let offshores solve for the right line and they don't take action from
people who beat them.

That's their risk management - it's not a theoretical attempt to split the action. They don't even pretend to try and do that.
 
Whaler is correct on all this. Back when I was younger and took risk I loved casino junk bonds and actually did decently. Anyway, I discovered that casinos in LV were poorly run and that included their sports books. Individually, there probably won't be a lot of $$ bet on the UConn game and it would be unlikely that any LV book would take a suspiciously large bet from someone on "the list."
 
WhartonHusky said:
Then what's the "right line"? If they only take bets from losers, the line shouldn't matter.
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LOL If you are investing other people's money I hope you know the companies better than you know sports bookmaking.
 
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I never said they take action from guys on "the list". That's another part of their risk management.

Technology has changed things. Being public companies means investors demand consistent cash flow and earnings in order to pay debt and reward shareholders. That's done through risk management.

You can choose to believe they are as cavalier as you want...good luck out there.
 
WhartonHusky said:
I never said they take action from guys on "the list". That's another part of their risk management.

Technology has changed things. Being public companies means investors demand consistent cash flow and earnings in order to pay debt and reward shareholders. That's done through risk management.

You can choose to believe they are as cavalier as you want...good luck out there.
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Thanks. Since most of the casinos have outsourced their sportsbook operations, it's pretty easy to see how they manage risk.


They don't take bets early in the week, they let offshores set the lines and they limit or bar winners from playing. CG and WH both have apps - it's not hard to see who and how they limit the people that beat them.

That's their risk management in a nutshell: If they were balancing bets on boths sides they would have a 4.5% hold - a single google search will tell you they do better than that every year so it would be a fairly stupid goal even if it existed.
 
Exit 4 said:
S - I need a new avatar....Damn you car wash!Head bang
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2759213510_62c9721cfe.jpg
 
jho said:
Oh yeah, this is the Key Tweets thread. I almost forgot.
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There is no such thing as a key tweet. There is nothing but people making things up for attention and/or traffic.
 
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For us to be in the Big 12's top 4 is
still huge from a perception POV.
 
Butch said:
For us to be in the Big 12's top 4 is
still huge from a perception POV.
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I guess. I'd feel better if being the bridesmaid for a third time get us a prize, like auto entry to the ACC or B1G.
 
Exit 4 said:
I guess. I'd feel better if being the bridesmaid for a third time get us a prize, like auto entry to the ACC or B1G.
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That's pretty much what this accomplishes, at least. If ACC expands again, who are they going to take?

This is the price we have to pay for being new at the elite level.
 
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Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 3h3 hours ago
For Big 12 schools NOT Texas/Oklahoma expansion is about what do we need to do to bring stability, which means keeping UT/OU happy. ...

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 3h3 hours ago
But it is unclear that expansion will make UT/OU happy and make them commit to the conference longer. Then why expand... short-term money?

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 3h3 hours ago
Was suggested to me maybe ESPN/Fox could save money by giving TV deal/GOR extension to B12 to forego expansion. But why would UT/OU sign?

 
[QUOTE=" who are they going to take?
[/QUOTE]

Since you asked; I dunno - maybe Cincy or WV or Houston or Texas or "whatever - as long as its not UConn U."

If we get squeezed into the ACC it will be because ESPN actually did us a favor and believes in the tv value we can add to the ACC channel. However, for the ACC we don't really offer new cable boxes (unlike the other schools I mentioned)...unless the ACC struggles in NYC and needs to get over the hump...which it might.
 
We have a Big Ten/SEC level fanbase in basketball, no doubt. In football, we have the same potential, as well. I am sure people know we actually do have a football fanbase that travels well. We already are amongst the best in the Hockey East.
 
West Virginia is concerned about a school that is not even in it's state. That's classic. You can kind of see the definitive writing on the wall that this conference is not going to last. Way, way too dysfunctional.
 
don356 said:
West Virginia is concerned about a school that is not even in it's state. That's classic. You can kind of see the definitive writing on the wall that this conference is not going to last. Way, way too dysfunctional.
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Although maybe it's an opportunity for us:

Morgantown to Cincinnati
469.4 mi (8 hrs 23 mins)

Morgantown to Storrs
716.6 mi (7 hrs 46 mins)

From WVU's world view, perhaps they'd rather see us in the Big 12.
 
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