Kenpom vs Barttorvik

[Jorgensen]

I posted this in another thread too, but we seem to do very well if we’re doing well in KenPom

 

[ScuderiaDiU]

since so much of this 'ology' stuff seems gambling oriented, im wondering if someone has figgered out a way to have folks bet on which one did the best after the field is announced?
the post-selection 'who guessed best' show could be a tv ratings beast.

I agree. I haven't seen that yet.

As for the ratings, all are backward looking. Some are better at measuring pure strength of resume and are also good at predicting MOV. Others are better at predicting Ws and Ls. Typically, those also emphasize recent play and a team's trajectory. Massey has a huge ratings comparison page. The problem is that his "consensus" includes some crappy systems. I did my own analysis where I dropped the crappy ones and developed a better consensus. Then you can see which one really is the best of the best. For predicting Ws and Ls in the tournament, I suspect the ratings that are best at that should perform the best.

 

[ScuderiaDiU]

Great research. I like to submit multiple sheets in my office pool. For one of my bracket sheets, I like to use a sound ranking system and use “straight chalk” using that system. I submitted this thread trying to search out “the best overall ranking system”.

I am dealing with side effects of a covid vaccination but I will try to update my analysis today. As of last week, I would have said to use Lawler for filling out the brackets. Second choice would be CBR. Third would be Logan.