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Kenpom is out

RuffRuff said:
I think he confused you with Uconn. It's not a mystery that shooting & scoring the basketball was StJ's main issue last year. There is no point posturing on what StJ is in advance and arguing over it. When you have a roster that is entirely new, you need to be patient and see them in action to draw on anything. New key pieces are two sophomore 5 star HS kids that played under the other Hurley & Hubert, really hard to tell what Pitino can do with them right now. I know it's easy to get sucked into their upside because of they were bluechip. Hopkins is coming off two years of inactivity. So you know, Mitchell was also a top ten bluechip that hasn't really played out. Great athlete, but can barely make a free throw. Lot's of variability with StJ as of now, and "if's". The one constant is Pitino.
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Agree totally. And sticking to the topic it’s why I argued that kenpom’s preseason rankings are very difficult, but get stronger as season starts.
 
MCNPA said:
Agree totally. And sticking to the topic it’s why I argued that kenpom’s preseason rankings are very difficult, but get stronger as season starts.
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Directional but imperfect data & talking point. Take a look at UF last year, 28th in the preseason. But it was pretty accurate with the other 3 teams in the Final 4. UF had two new transfer guards. It'll probably be similar this year where a couple teams come out of the top group, and a couple teams surprise. You're probably going to have a decent sense of how it looks by January.

www.si.com

KenPom Preseason College Basketball Rankings For 2024-25

UConn has been the gold standard in men's college basketball recently, winning back-to-back national championships under coach Dan Hurley. But as the Huskies go
www.si.com www.si.com
 
KingAG said:
SJ has been the most overrated team in the country this pre season imo. I think it’s so obvious they’re going to be a disaster.
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St. John's is going to give us fits, they're significantly more athletic than us. They have way more talent than they had last season and Pitino with great talent is scary. If they get good point guard play they're going to be really scary.
 
While preseason predictions are not perfect and there will always be teams who drastically overperform or underperform, there is typically a strong correlation between Ken Pomeroy’s preseason rankings and final rankings. Here are two of his articles - one about the strong correlation despite the increasing number of transfers, and another about the considerable variability.

open.substack.com

Some dense reading about preseason ratings

Well, here we are.
open.substack.com open.substack.com

open.substack.com

Preseason ratings are live

Why is your computer so far off on my team?
open.substack.com open.substack.com

This graph from last year is interesting. While the season-to-season correlation was low in 2024, the preseason to final correlation remained high.

And please, no need to call me a nerd; I yelled it at myself as I typed this.

IMG_1028.jpeg
 
superjohn said:
St. John's is going to give us fits, they're significantly more athletic than us. They have way more talent than they had last season and Pitino with great talent is scary. If they get good point guard play they're going to be really scary.
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I just disagree. They’ll be good not great. I could be wrong. I hope I am. The BE needs me to be.

They have a lot of no substance all potential guys. Hopkins hasn’t played in 2 years. They may have some boom potential, but I don’t think enough is being made of their bust potential. And when it’s brought up you just get “but Pitino”. I guess we’ll see.
 
ToolzieFan said:
While preseason predictions are not perfect and there will always be teams who drastically overperform or underperform, there is typically a strong correlation between Ken Pomeroy’s preseason rankings and final rankings. Here are two of his articles - one about the strong correlation despite the increasing number of transfers, and another about the considerable variability.

open.substack.com

Some dense reading about preseason ratings

Well, here we are.
open.substack.com open.substack.com

open.substack.com

Preseason ratings are live

Why is your computer so far off on my team?
open.substack.com open.substack.com

This graph from last year is interesting. While the season-to-season correlation was low in 2024, the preseason to final correlation remained high.

And please, no need to call me a nerd; I yelled it at myself as I typed this.

View attachment 112297
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And of course he posted this year’s article right after I posted here. Last year’s ratings were good as well!

open.substack.com

Preseason ratings are here

We're so back
open.substack.com open.substack.com
 
KingAG said:
I just disagree. They’ll be good not great. I could be wrong. I hope I am. The BE needs me to be.

They have a lot of no substance all potential guys. Hopkins hasn’t played in 2 years. They may have some boom potential, but I don’t think enough is being made of their bust potential. And when it’s brought up you just get “but Pitino”. I guess we’ll see.
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Pitino has a way of squeezing potential.

Reality is no one knows right now what they'll be. It's all a guessing game. 2-5 they are stacked.
 
RuffRuff said:
Pitino has a way of squeezing potential.

Reality is no one knows right now what they'll be. It's all a guessing game. 2-5 they are stacked.
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They’ll probably get by like those old Bob Huggins WVU teams that used to be long, athletic, and can play defense. But guard play was suspect.
 
HW611 said:
They’ll probably get by like those old Bob Huggins WVU teams that used to be long, athletic, and can play defense. But guard play was suspect.
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Guard play overall won’t be suspect. We have some super talented sg’s. PG play may be a work in progress. Darling was a conference POY at PG at worst case scenario. At best, we also have Sellers and Jackson. I’ll reserve judgement on sellers until I see him against competition, but he’s an alpha scorer. Can he be the PG? Not sure.

Btw this is not like an old Huggins team. They will not just get by. Gonna be a very dynamic team with excellent coach.
 
MCNPA said:
Guard play overall won’t be suspect. We have some super talented sg’s. PG play may be a work in progress. Darling was a conference POY at PG at worst case scenario. At best, we also have Sellers and Jackson. I’ll reserve judgement on sellers until I see him against competition, but he’s an alpha scorer. Can he be the PG? Not sure.

Btw this is not like an old Huggins team. They will not just get by. Gonna be a very dynamic team with excellent coach.
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Huggins had strong top 25 teams consistently. They were really good usually. They just usually lost in the tournament because they didn’t have the guards (pgs specifically) to keep up.

But he’s usually good for a Sweet 16.
 
KenPom has us at +28.something.
He has BC at +8.something.

We won by 19, without, arguably, 2 of our best players.

We pretty much played to, or just a bit above our pre season ranking last night.
 
prankster said:
KenPom has us at +28.something.
He has BC at +8.something.

We won by 19, without, arguably, 2 of our best players.

We pretty much played to, or just a bit above our pre season ranking last night.
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Those numbers are per 100 possessions, so a typical 65-68 possession game would put the spread between 13 and 14. We won by 19 over 66 possessions, so our ranking would have improved minus 2 starters.
 
RuffRuff said:
Rothstein had some interesting sound bites on StJ after watching their practice this week - his views that still a work in progress figuring out chemistry. Not surprising.
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I just hope it doesn't take them too long to gel, as it did last year. They were pretty mediocre in the non con last year, losing a couple games by really close margins. They have some really big games in November, including Alabama in their 2nd game of the season. I want them to win as many big games OOC as possible so they'll be an elite win for any team that beats them in league play this season.

I also just really want them to beat both of their SEC and Big XII opponents for Big East bragging rights, lol. I'm confident we'll do our part to rep the top of the league and hope they do the same.
 
The entire Big East -- even the bottom tier needs to do work and perform better than last year in the non-con. I never understand why some fans don't understand (or don't care about) the system: that it's in our interest for these other teams to excel to boost SOS and quad 1 opportunities in the BE. And thinking longer term, a stronger BE makes it less likely a future superleague would leave teams like UConn, St John's, and Villanova out.
 
Tiamat7 said:
The entire Big East -- even the bottom tier needs to do work and perform better than last year in the non-con. I never understand why some fans don't understand (or don't care about) the system: that it's in our interest for these other teams to excel to boost SOS and quad 1 opportunities in the BE. And thinking longer term, a stronger BE makes it less likely a future superleague would leave teams like UConn, St John's, and Villanova out.
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Hard when your best players leave for other programs - Isiah Coleman of SHU went off for 28 against Auburn in a scrimmage and looks like their best player.
 
MCNPA said:
What are you talking about? I watched UConn all season including in the post season. We don't know what will be solved until this season. Demary is a nice player but from what I see UConn fans are putting McNeeley into “problem” category rather than the guy who was a difference maker.

As a SjU fan I couldn’t stand McNeeley over all the rest which means he was a problem and your best player. I couldn’t stand Ball either. He’s back so definitely worrisome lol. Also didn’t care for Tarriss but we have more talented and experienced depth to counter this season.

I’m just still trying to find where UConn gets ton better except for Demary and returning players. Sju has clear upgrades at almost all spots. Who takes McNeeley’s spot and outproduces?
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Perhaps you use a red can to walk around then?

If you looked at what DID work the year before last it was having Newton, a combo guard as point and a plus defender in Castle as well as a healthy dose of Cam. Clingan was instrumental and Alex was the best 3rd-4th option player.

Last year we had Diarra and Maheney and injuries kept Diarra at 1/2 to 3/4 a player but 6’0 and Mahaney at 6’3” were not great perimeter defensive players.

So what changed? Demary and Mullins bring height and defense to the perimeter. Reed as a starting 5 brings scoring, rebounding, and good defense. Offensively Demary can score, Mullins is a bucket, Solo is a marksman, Reed can dominate on offense.

And with so many saying Tarris needs to stop fouling he was disqualified on a handful of games and one in Maui we lost 4 guys to the same.

Feel free to be a St John’s homer but try harder if coming back to a UConn board.
 
Lafayette said:
Perhaps you use a red can to walk around then?

If you looked at what DID work the year before last it was having Newton, a combo guard as point and a plus defender in Castle as well as a healthy dose of Cam. Clingan was instrumental and Alex was the best 3rd-4th option player.

Last year we had Diarra and Maheney and injuries kept Diarra at 1/2 to 3/4 a player but 6’0 and Mahaney at 6’3” were not great perimeter defensive players.

So what changed? Demary and Mullins bring height and defense to the perimeter. Reed as a starting 5 brings scoring, rebounding, and good defense. Offensively Demary can score, Mullins is a bucket, Solo is a marksman, Reed can dominate on offense.

And with so many saying Tarris needs to stop fouling he was disqualified on a handful of games and one in Maui we lost 4 guys to the same.

Feel free to be a St John’s homer but try harder if coming back to a UConn board.
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Last year the roster building effort was a C- at best.

Over-indexed on AK in a feature role
5 a career backup who had backup skills/ceiling
Tried to convert a transfer CG Mahaney to PG, ended up being a total wash with a ripple effect down the roster
Didn't have any back court insurance by stopping at Mahaney
Didn't diagnose Solo's defensive deficiencies to accommodate in the portal (Mahaney sure wasn't it)
Overstated Ross' & Stewart's "leaps"
Recruited HS level poorly
Didn't forecast for Diarra's chronic injury

Tried to make lemonade out of a lemon, attempted to make a transition year a 3peat year.

We had a lack of ball handling, on-ball creation, toughness and defensive footspeed. It was kind of a disaster, here as a hindsight warrior. The jewel of the disaster was putting so many eggs in the Mahaney experiment. It bombed and we had no answer behind him. A Millender type kid would have been good to have on the bench last year.

I will say it forever, but Hurley was too busy showering in the afterglow, entertaining the Lakers, than thinking about the roster. This year he got depth behind the depth, and then more depth internationally.

Now:

Have a real, physical starting 5 with a year in the system (+1)
Can reduce AK into a more natural role (+2)
Have 2 tough, real PG's, both defensively strong (+3)
Mullins should blend into the system in a more natural role, and has better foot-speed for defense (+4)
Ball should show progression both defensively & defensively (+5)
Have depth this year if something isn't working, as insurance, and mixed pieces for matchups (+6)
No Mahaney, addition by substraction (+7)
 
superjohn said:
St. John's is going to give us fits, they're significantly more athletic than us. They have way more talent than they had last season and Pitino with great talent is scary. If they get good point guard play they're going to be really scary.
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Doomed
 
superjohn said:
St. John's is going to give us fits, they're significantly more athletic than us. They have way more talent than they had last season and Pitino with great talent is scary. If they get good point guard play they're going to be really scary.
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Never noticed, is there any portal/transfer action at mid-year, or is that one of the few rules?
 

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