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Kenpom is out

RuffRuff said:
They don't mean everything but they mean something. StJ has a group of guys that played last year, so the model should be fairly on point.

How Uconn is better is pretty clear for anyone that is paying attention. In addition to returning minutes:

Playing a Center in Reed that actually outplayed Zubi in their matchups last year (take a look at box if you can't remember), that's had a year in the system and committed to as starter. Very high upside. We started a guy last year that couldn't rebound.

Flexing AK back into more of a role playing position

Ball with another year under his belt after his first year as a starter/getting real minutes

2 PGS, when we had 1/2 of one last year - we had no on ball creation at all last year

Another 5 star 3 better built for the UConn system, and can defend. McNeeley ended up being reckless as a primary creator and couldn't defend a road cone.

Deep bench, when we had nothing last year. I'm not taking away anything from StJ potential as it's an experiment and unknown at this point. Don't have much other than the roster, some Pitino bites and Rothstein's take. My guess is they'll be a work in progress for a couple months before we understand what they are.
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Actually Tarris outplayed Zuby in first matchup but was outplayed second matchup. We have a very, very different roster this year and it’s much more talented. Now we have Bryce Hopkins and Mitchell up front as well when we really had no power forward at all last year. Ruben Prey back as another center and was fire for a freshman last year.

I don’t foresee defense being a problem, except for maybe early in the season. I expect a very difficult SJU team to deal with second half of season at both ends of court: This sju team are vastly better shooters and scorers and it’s not even close. Once team matures a bit early I think you will be surprised.
 
Inyatkin said:
KenPom loves Houston, part 1,000. Only surprised it's not Duke-Gonzaga rounding out the top three
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No, his metrics love returning players. The teams with returning guys will push teams higher. It’s all metrics from last season which are useless entering a new year.
 
HW611 said:
There’s been a few people who have said the portal is good for guys to come up and get exposure who have succeeded at lower levels, IE Cam Spencer and Tristan Newton. Not sure what would be different here.
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Cam came from the Big 10 and Tristen from the AAC. Darling is coming from the Big Sky. Please stop.
 
MCNPA said:
How is UConn getting better is my question, losing by far your best player? I know you have Karaban and Ball back but McNeeley was your best player imo and it wasn’t close. Nothing confusing about it. You say sju not making a Final 4 but it’s lack of a Pitino team playing defense that changes the formula?
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If that’s what you meant it’s a bad question . Potential lotto pick Braylon Mullins says hello. Never mind Silas, Taris, ball and Stewart being a year better. McNeeley will be replaced 10 fold
 
MCNPA said:
Actually Tarris outplayed Zuby in first matchup but was outplayed second matchup. We have a very, very different roster this year and it’s much more talented. Now we have Bryce Hopkins and Mitchell up front as well when we really had no power forward at all last year. Ruben Prey back as another center and was fire for a freshman last year.

I don’t foresee defense being a problem, except for maybe early in the season. I expect a very difficult SJU team to deal with second half of season at both ends of court: This sju team are vastly better shooters and scorers and it’s not even close. Once team matures a bit early I think you will be surprised.
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First game
Zubi 11/5 in 37 minutes. 12/6 over 40mpg.
Tarris 15/12 in 33 minutes. 15.5/18 over 40mpg.

Second game
Zubi 18/9 over 34. 21/10.5 over 40mpg
Tarris 15/6 in 20 minutes. 30/12 over 40mpg

Watching both games closely, Reed had the physical edge anytime he was on the floor with Zubi, which isn't easy to do. He's bigger and he's stronger. Now of course, a part of Reed's challenge is going to be staying on the floor. Reed reaching potential is a big variable in this team being NC caliber. He's talented enough.

The value of returning minutes is there because they have data that expounds on the fact that it matters.

You know as much about the potential of this team as we do - you have no clue. You haven't seen them play together in a meaningful game, so how the heck do you know how they will gel?
 
MCNPA said:
Which big scorer is Demary passing to this season that UConn didn’t have last year?
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Mullins for one.

Tarris Reed has the potential to up his 9.6 PPG average with better PG play.
 
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MCNPA said:
Ken Pom’s analytics don’t really mean much entering a new year with new teams which was my original point. Sure UConn analytics do because you have returners. Lots of the top 4 last year were not veteran returners.
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Yea, preseason/early season KenPom is heavily driven by last years performance. With some secret sauce KP new season projection fluff based on new roster. Remember how the KP ratings get computed. This is basically a few steps above throwing darts at a dartboard (being a little facetious of course). Quibbling over a few spots here and there is nonsense. Which makes it perfect BY fodder.
 
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MCNPA said:
I know you guys are still excited annd hang your hat on a competitive game against Florida but that doesn’t mean much entering this season.
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No, it doesn't. You're right. But this year's UConn team should be a lot better than last year's team. By you not watching UConn enough you're not aware of the issues last year's team had and how they should be solved. Most of us on here know a lot more about our team than you do.
 
MCNPA said:
I know you guys are still excited annd hang your hat on a competitive game against Florida but that doesn’t mean much entering this season.
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That's not what I meant. I meant the team had a lot of issues that have hopefully been fixed. McNeeley was one of the issues. I think he was still hurting after the ankle injury and he was very inefficient in most of the games once he came back.

Pitino declared Sellers, a Stanford (and previously USC) transfer, the team’s starting “point guard” earlier this week following an inter-squad scrimmage at Madison Square Garden.

Sellers tallied 71 assists in 93 career games for the Trojans and Cardinal, or 0.8 per game. That number will have to go up – either on his own accord or by Pitino’s force – especially in a system that will be predicated on spreading the wealth.

Sounds like you guys found your point guard. 😂

www.on3.com

2025 Big East Basketball Previews: St. John's Red Storm

The city is starving for a winner, and Pitino, alongside his band of highly touted transfers, could be the group that satiates those growing pangs.
www.on3.com www.on3.com
 
MCNPA said:
I know you guys are still excited annd hang your hat on a competitive game against Florida but that doesn’t mean much entering this season.
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We’re the ones excited by a season that ended in the round of 32???
 
BGesus4 said:
We’re the ones excited by a season that ended in the round of 32???
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As I said, I think 3 of 4 of last years final 4 went out in first round year prior. I don’t care about last year though. SjU was still building
 
MCNPA said:
As I said, I think 3 of 4 of last years final 4 went out in first round year prior. I don’t care about last year though. SjU was still building
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You guys have been building for decades, but I guess, to your point, you’ve had plenty of good precursor seasons to final fours apparently
 
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MCNPA said:
As I said, I think 3 of 4 of last years final 4 went out in first round year prior. I don’t care about last year though. SjU was still building
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EvanMiya has a study on the necessary amount of returning minutes needed to be serious contenders.

Between having a brand new roster and no PG, looks like you all will still be building.
blog.evanmiya.com

How To Build A CBB Roster In 2025

A study on the roster construction strategies that lead to success for high majors
blog.evanmiya.com blog.evanmiya.com
 
HooperScooper said:
No, it doesn't. You're right. But this year's UConn team should be a lot better than last year's team. By you not watching UConn enough you're not aware of the issues last year's team had and how they should be solved. Most of us on here know a lot more about our team than you do.
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What are you talking about? I watched UConn all season including in the post season. We don't know what will be solved until this season. Demary is a nice player but from what I see UConn fans are putting McNeeley into “problem” category rather than the guy who was a difference maker.

As a SjU fan I couldn’t stand McNeeley over all the rest which means he was a problem and your best player. I couldn’t stand Ball either. He’s back so definitely worrisome lol. Also didn’t care for Tarriss but we have more talented and experienced depth to counter this season.

I’m just still trying to find where UConn gets ton better except for Demary and returning players. Sju has clear upgrades at almost all spots. Who takes McNeeley’s spot and outproduces?
 
BGesus4 said:
You guys have been building for decades, but I guess, to your point, you’ve had plenty of good precursor seasons to final fours apparently
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Just silly. Not arguing UConn’s illustrious history.
 
MCNPA said:
As I said, I think 3 of 4 of last years final 4 went out in first round year prior. I don’t care about last year though. SjU was still building
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St John's is a throw of the dice every year. 15 scholarships. 15 new guys. Every year.
 
MCNPA said:
As I said, I think 3 of 4 of last years final 4 went out in first round year prior. I don’t care about last year though. SjU was still building
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SJU has been building for 40 years 😂.
 
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MCNPA said:
sounds great but college ball has changed. Teams are rebuilding instantly.
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I guess you didn’t read the article that referenced seasons as recent as… last year lol
 
MCNPA said:
What are you talking about? I watched UConn all season including in the post season. We don't know what will be solved until this season. Demary is a nice player but from what I see UConn fans are putting McNeeley into “problem” category rather than the guy who was a difference maker.

As a SjU fan I couldn’t stand McNeeley over all the rest which means he was a problem and your best player. I couldn’t stand Ball either. He’s back so definitely worrisome lol. Also didn’t care for Tarriss but we have more talented and experienced depth to counter this season.

I’m just still trying to find where UConn gets ton better except for Demary and returning players. Sju has clear upgrades at almost all spots. Who takes McNeeley’s spot and outproduces?
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Dude, hoops isn’t a math equation or a fantasy sport. It requires roster building to build balance. Take a look at McNeelys efficiency stats after injury and you’ll see a guy that shot poorly (38% FG, 31% from 3 for season) turned the ball over and just played out of control. He was not additive. There are so many unique situations and matchups in a year, key is having an answer, or being “bullet proof”. StJ is not that out of the gate, but maybe they find some player that steps up to be a lead guard and other players learn how to compliment. I’d call them a WIP for awhile. They also looked awful early last year.

I know you’re excited that your Vitamin Water backing bought you the best roster money could buy, but as goes team sports, it requires a lot more than that to win.
 
RuffRuff said:
Dude, hoops isn’t a math equation or a fantasy sport. It requires roster building to build balance. Take a look at McNeelys efficiency stats after injury and you’ll see a guy that shot poorly (38% FG, 31% from 3 for season) turned the ball over and just played out of control. He was not additive. There are so many unique situations and matchups in a year, key is having an answer, or being “bullet proof”. StJ is not that out of the gate, but maybe they find some player that steps up to be a lead guard and other players learn how to compliment. I’d call them a WIP for awhile. They also looked awful early last year.

I know you’re excited that your Vitamin Water backing bought you the best roster money could buy, but as goes team sports, it requires a lot more than that to win.
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Kenpom and Evan both use math equations. That’s exactly what I’m refuting and the topic of the thread is.
 
MCNPA said:
How is UConn getting better is my question, losing by far your best player? I know you have Karaban and Ball back but McNeeley was your best player imo and it wasn’t close. Nothing confusing about it. You say sju not making a Final 4 but it’s lack of a Pitino team playing defense that changes the formula?
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McNeeley was UConns best player? Not close. Most potential, yes. Best when healthy, arguable. Best actually on the court at end of year, nope.
 
Best outcome for the season is obviously winning #7
Second best is Duke not winning #6
Third best is Florida not following our back to back with their second back to back
So If not us I wouldn’t mind Houston or Purdue
 
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