KenPom Expectations - The Final 7 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

KenPom Expectations - The Final 7

zls44 said:
Irrelevant to the committee. They don't look at stuff like "Last 10" anymore, nor should they.
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Are you sure? Because they definitely didn't factor in the first half of Syracuse's season last year.
 
Matrim55 said:
Are you sure? Because they definitely didn't factor in the first half of Syracuse's season last year.
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But Boehem was out, and that was how they were able to use it more logically.
 
HungryHuskies said:
I'd love to be in the tournament as a 12 seed. The 5 seed would be so mad haha.
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I think the 12 seed wins like 70% of the time. If we lost in the finals to Memphis last year we would have probably been a 12 seed and would not have had to face #1 overall Kansas. 12 is one of the better seeds to be. 7-11 are tough because any way you slice it you have to have to beat a top 3 seed (barring another huge upset) to get to the sweet 16. If you're a 12 you need to beat at most a 4 seed. These types of things are the glaring flaws with the tourney but also what makes it great.
 
Jerry1714 said:
I will never forgot how you had and still have no idea how the Kenpom rankings work.
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True, but I went to UConn and passed Statistics 101 so I'm pretty sure I would understand it if I gave a crap. My point is no matter how it works, if it results in that team being ranked 11th I consider it suspect. You disagree, OK.
 
Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
I think the 12 seed wins like 70% of the time.
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The No. 5 seed is 82–46 against the No. 12 seed (.641)

It just feels like there are more upsets there because the drop from the 4-seed's winning percentage is huge (.797). Honestly, the 12 seed usually gets the best of the mid-majors, or talented but underachieving major schools who can beat anyone on any given night (why they made it) but most nights haven't (why their a 12-seed). 2000 Missouri is the easy go-to example for that.
 
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Waquoit said:
True, but I went to UConn and passed Statistics 101 so I'm pretty sure I would understand it if I gave a crap. My point is no matter how it works, if it results in that team being ranked 11th I consider it suspect. You disagree, OK.
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I hated that class.
 
tzznandrew said:
The No. 5 seed is 82–46 against the No. 12 seed (.641)

It just feels like there are more upsets there because the drop from the 4-seed's winning percentage is huge (.797). Honestly, the 12 seed usually gets the best of the mid-majors, or talented but underachieving major schools who can beat anyone on any given night (why they made it) but most nights haven't (why their a 12-seed). 2000 Missouri is the easy go-to example for that.
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A bit of hyperbole on my part but I'd still rather be a 12 than an 8.
 
Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
A bit of hyperbole on my part but I'd still rather be a 12 than an 8.
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Me too.

20 times a 12 seed has made the S16, an 8 has only done it 12 times.

If you are an 8/9, you are definitely playing the 1 seed. As a 12, the 5 is a very good team, but not great, similar to the 4...but you might get a 13 seed, which has happened 11 times (12 vs. 13). Much higher odds.

Now, a 12 has never beaten the 1 seed, but you always have the chance the 8/9 seed will take care of business there for you.

Long point of saying that I agree with your overall assertion.
 
tzznandrew said:
Me too.

20 times a 12 seed has made the S16, an 8 has only done it 12 times.

If you are an 8/9, you are definitely playing the 1 seed. As a 12, the 5 is a very good team, but not great, similar to the 4..but you might get a 13 seed, which has happened 11 times (12 vs. 13). Much higher odds.

Now, a 12 has never beaten the 1 seed, but you always have the chance the 8/9 seed will take care of business there for you.

Long point of saying that I agree with your overall assertion.
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Absolutely. Last year sucked having to play Kansas meanwhile Cuse is beating riff raff all the way to the Final Four.
 
If you want to make the F4 as a double digit seed, 11 is the seed to be. You avoid the 1 until E8, which gives maximum upset time. You get an average team as a 6 which you have decent odds to upset (same rate as 12s over 5s), then the 3, and 11s have beaten 3s at roughly the same rate that 12s beat 4s. But they've beaten the next opponent (usually 2) 6 times more often than the 12 has theirs (usually 1). The 1 has ~70% chance to be there in that round for the 12, while 2 is only 47%. Much better odds for a weaker team. The 12 has never made the F4, while 11 has 3 times.
 
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Pudge said:
Waquoit and HuskyHawk ... you could take more Statistics. They actually had 200 level courses.
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Is there a 200 level course in pulling your fingernails out with pliers? Because that would be more fun.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Is there a 200 level course in pulling your fingernails out with pliers? Because that would be more fun.
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You guys probably took the course with business majors surrounding you.

Take a Grad level Stats course with NOTHING but Social Science kids that NEED the course for their Masters/PhD. And ... they avoid taking any quantitative courses all their lives cause "they think they aren't good at it". That is unbelievably fun.
 
Pudge said:
You guys probably took the course with business majors surrounding you.

Take a Grad level Stats course with NOTHING but Social Science kids that NEED the course for their Masters/PhD. And ... they avoid taking any quantitative courses all their lives cause "they think they aren't good at it". That is unbelievably fun.
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I was one of the business majors, so yeah. Finance was plenty math heavy, I just thought the Stats prof sucked.
 
Waquoit said:
True, but I went to UConn and passed Statistics 101 so I'm pretty sure I would understand it if I gave a crap. My point is no matter how it works, if it results in that team being ranked 11th I consider it suspect. You disagree, OK.
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Kenpom spreads are usually pretty close to Vegas lines. What you're saying is you think UConn should be favorites in spreads against those other teams if you think they should be higher in Kenpom for that year. Imagine UConn being matched up against those other teams in a game that takes place outside of the tournament. Would, should, that team be favored against them all?
 
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Leebo said:
Kenpom spreads are usually pretty close to Vegas lines. What you're saying is you think UConn should be favorites in spreads against those other teams if you think they should be higher in Kenpom for that year. Imagine UConn being matched up against those other teams in a game that takes place outside of the tournament. Would, should, that team be favored against them all?
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It is amazing that people are unable to grasp the fact that upsets happen in sports, or that sometimes a team who has performed on average better over 30 games does not win on a certain day to a myriad of reasons.
 
Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
Absolutely. Last year sucked having to play Kansas meanwhile Cuse is beating riff raff all the way to the Final Four.
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Meh, let that nice little program have their nice little dance to the final four: our runs end up with the title and the prom queen.
 
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