KenPom Expectations - The Final 7

[HungryHuskies]

KenPom has UConn winning 2 out of the final 7 games in the regular season (vs Memphis and @East Carolina). I think that's a bit harsh and I don't agree with it.

Quite frankly, I think UConn wins at least 5 out of 7. Thankfully, UConn plays their two toughest opponents at home. I expect that UConn will win at least one out of three playing @Houston, SMU, and Cincinnati. It's going to be a tough stretch of games, but I think if UConn wins @UCF it will be a good start to the final 7 and we may see some good things happen. UConn is coming off a win against USF that improved players (Enoch, CV, Durham) confidence, which will help down the road.

But, what do I know? When this team decides to show up and play I think they can beat anyone in this conference. When they don't show up, yeah, let's not talk about that.

One game at a time.

 

[Balker]

If you play like crap for most of the season, KenPom will generally think you will keep playing like crap. Can't blame them for not building their predictive model around recent game play more than the entire body of work...

Fortunately, we have played less crappy lately. And seem to be finally reaching our potential. So I agree, we'd damn well better win more than 2 of the next 7 games. I think they will win 5 of 7. I think they can win 7 of 7. But all that matters is that they win the AAC tournament. Anything else really has no meaning at this point other than getting themselves a 5 seed+ in the AAC tournament. But even that... a warm up game against ECU or USF wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

It's not that harsh considering it's February and we have a losing record.

 

[Waquoit]

Never forget how winning an NC and 11 post-season games in a row wasn't good enough to get UConn in Ken Poms Top 10.

 

[joober jones]

They'll beat UCF. Put it in the bank.

 

[pepband99]

Never forget how winning an NC and 11 post-season games in a row wasn't good enough to get UConn in Ken Poms Top 10.

So? It's a statistical model. It's not like he picks these things.

 

[Brochacho]

Never forget how winning an NC and 11 post-season games in a row wasn't good enough to get UConn in Ken Poms Top 10.

UConn is in the top 10 for 2011. And when you are 21-9 before that win streak its kind of hard to break into a group where half the teams have 3-5 losses.

 

[Waquoit]

UConn is in the top 10 for 2011. And when you are 21-9 before that win streak its kind of hard to break into a group where half the teams have 3-5 losses.

They were some tweaks since 2011. I checked Ken Pom soon after the game, the season records were updated, and they were 11th. And that's my point, if 11 wins in a row, 7 against ranked teams isn't enough to really move the needle, what good is their rankings?

 

[Brochacho]

They were some tweaks since 2011. I checked Ken Pom soon after the game, the season records were updated, and they were 11th. And that's my point, if 11 wins in a row, 7 against ranked teams isn't enough to really move the needle, what good is their rankings?

We went from pretty good, to mediocre, to really good. A great 11 game sample won't wipe away the 41 game body of work.

 

[Waquoit]

We went from pretty good, to mediocre, to really good. A great 11 game sample won't wipe away the 41 game body of work.

Considering when the "11-game sample" occurred, perhaps it should.

 

[Brochacho]

Considering when the "11-game sample" occurred, perhaps it should.

If anything, it just goes to reinforce the historic runs we had in 2011 and 2014. For the 15 years his data is available, a top 3 team has won it all every season, except for 8 Syracuse (2003), 10 UConn (2011), 15 UConn (2014). The best team in the kenpom wins the championship 53% of the time. From those 15 years:
Mean: 3.4
Median: 1
Mode: 1

Once again, I think the kenpom just goes to show that neither 2011 nor 2014 were elite teams which makes the runs all the more impressive.

 

[HuskyHawk]

If anything, it just goes to reinforce the historic runs we had in 2011 and 2014. For the 15 years his data is available, a top 3 team has won it all every season, except for 8 Syracuse (2003), 10 UConn (2011), 15 UConn (2014). The best team in the kenpom wins the championship 53% of the time. From those 15 years:
Mean: 3.4
Median: 1
Mode: 1

Once again, I think the kenpom just goes to show that neither 2011 nor 2014 were elite teams which makes the runs all the more impressive.

No, they weren't elite teams. 2014 certainly wasn't. But the reality is that KenPom does a bad job of adjusting to shifts in quality of play, or injuries, etc. It isn't a very good predictor when those factors are involved.

This UConn team has been devastated by injuries, not just the guys who are out for the year, but Adams' concussion and Enoch and Durham. Plus the level of play, especially shooting from outside, truly has changed. So KenPom has UConn way under-rated based on what the Huskies can do right now.

 

[champs99and04]

No, they weren't elite teams. 2014 certainly wasn't. But the reality is that KenPom does a bad job of adjusting to shifts in quality of play, or injuries, etc. It isn't a very good predictor when those factors are involved.

This UConn team has been devastated by injuries, not just the guys who are out for the year, but Adams' concussion and Enoch and Durham. Plus the level of play, especially shooting from outside, truly has changed. So KenPom has UConn way under-rated based on what the Huskies can do right now.

There are some flaws with the KenPom model, but of all the metrics, it is the best predictor of future results. There is a reason there is a far greater correlation between KenPom and the betting lines than things like RPI, human polls, etc. Point differential is proven to be a better indicator than anything of future results.

The '11 team was extremely good but also extremely lucky. During the 11 game run alone, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Arizona, and Kentucky were either overtime or one possession games, and San Diego State was a one point game in the final two minutes.

The '14 team, on the other hand, probably doesn't get the credit they deserve - for a supposed Cinderella, they pretty much took the toughest possible road and handled everybody. Besides for Kentucky, every team they beat won either their conference tournament or regular season title (and those were four power conferences + the A-10, the premier mid-major league).

 

[HungryHuskies]

Would UConn be on or close to the bubble if they win the rest of their regular season games? That would be wins against #75, #78, #109, #39, #15, #207, and #20. We are currently #96. Not sure how he calculates these rankings.

 

[lange10]

Would UConn be on or close to the bubble if they win the rest of their regular season games? That would be wins against #75, #78, #109, #39, #15, #207, and #20. We are currently #96. Not sure how he calculates these rankings.

No. Win out the regular season, lose in AAC final and I still don't think we're really even comsidered. Perhaps from the late steam we get a look but also it's an unrealistic hypothetical. That's not being a pessimist, just realistic. This team won't win out the regular season

 

[gwhuskyfan]

No. Win out the regular season, lose in AAC final and I still don't think we're really even comsidered. Perhaps from the late steam we get a look but also it's an unrealistic hypothetical. That's not being a pessimist, just realistic. This team won't win out the regular season

Bubble really weak this year. 20-12. Would be tough but wouldn't same impossible

 

[gtcam]

The regular season means squat right now, the only target the next 7 games is to get better and better
The only thing that makes any difference is to win the AAC tournament.
If it takes 4 0r 3 games, I don't care
This team can do it - BUT - a whole lot of things have to happen and come together. Luck is one of them, hot shooting and full concentration on the defensive end are the others
KenPom always has and will always be a nothing rating system
UConn needs to be UConn

 

[HuskyHawk]

Bubble really weak this year. 20-12. Would be tough but wouldn't same impossible

We would get some credit for the injuries I assume, and for name recognition. The real benefit of making a run are two-fold in my opinion.
1. Seeding for the AAC as @gtcam points out
2. The NIT

Let's not forget that this team is no lock to even reach the NIT. And we really need to. Missing the NCAAs is one thing, but it can be redeemed by a strong run in the NIT...or hell, another NIT championship. That would really help the young guys for the future.

 

[lange10]

Bubble really weak this year. 20-12. Would be tough but wouldn't same impossible

Perhaps. Regardless, if any Husky fan actually thinks we're going to win out this season I'd like a little bit of what they're having.

 

[auror]

If you play like crap for most of the season, KenPom will generally think you will keep playing like crap. Can't blame them for not building their predictive model around recent game play more than the entire body of work..

Indeed. It's been studied and the full body of work is more predictive than any amount of more recent games. Of course that's on average, and some teams will "turn it on", especially young teams. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Speaking of which..

KenPom has UConn winning 2 out of the final 7 games in the regular season (vs Memphis and @East Carolina). I think that's a bit harsh and I don't agree with it.

Quite frankly, I think UConn wins at least 5 out of 7.

Would love to take the under 4.5 wins, please and thank you sir.

Never forget how winning an NC and 11 post-season games in a row wasn't good enough to get UConn in Ken Poms Top 10.

UConn did finish exactly 10th. We did also lose 4/5 before the streak to blow our rank up to 26th and then won 5 of the 11 games by 3 points or less. Let's just say we won a lot of metaphorical coin flips because Kemba is unbelievable and we got a little lucky (Derrick Williams miss, Kemba stepback, Kemba flop T, Cuse OT, Liggins missed 3,

 

[tzznandrew]

If they won out--and they won't--going into the AAC tournament they'd be 17-12, RPI around 57, and SOS around 45. 2 Top 25 wins, but both at home, and some bad losses (Wagner, Northeastern, Tulsa all sub-100).

If, as the 4/5 seed they played Memphis/Cincy/SMU, losing in the final, 19-13, 49 RPI, 30 SOS.

Which means, of course, they need to win. 20-12 with the conference championship--however unlikely that is--gets them a 10 or 11 seed...maybe 12 (which is best case, in a way, I'd guess).

 

[Matrim55]

Bubble really weak this year. 20-12. Would be tough but wouldn't same impossible

If we win out in the regular season & make it to the AAC title game, we finish 20-13 with, presumably, four quality wins (Syracuse, then two vs. either SMU or Cincinnati, and one vs. the other).

I don't think that'd be enough, but stranger things have happened. Going 13-2 in the season's last 15 games is a pretty decent argument despite our abysmal start to the year.

 

[Waquoit]

Going 13-2 in the season's last 15 games is a pretty decent argument despite our abysmal start to the year.

+1

 

[HungryHuskies]

If we win out in the regular season & make it to the AAC title game, we finish 20-13 with, presumably, four quality wins (Syracuse, then two vs. either SMU or Cincinnati, and one vs. the other).

I don't think that'd be enough, but stranger things have happened. Going 13-2 in the season's last 15 games is a pretty decent argument despite our abysmal start to the year.

I think if it comes down to us being on the bubble, I think we get into the tournament. The UConn name and injuries this year should help us win the argument. UConn basketball makes headlines in March and everyone knows that.

 

[HungryHuskies]

If they won out--and they won't--going into the AAC tournament they'd be 17-12, RPI around 57, and SOS around 45. 2 Top 25 wins, but both at home, and some bad losses (Wagner, Northeastern, Tulsa all sub-100).

If, as the 4/5 seed they played Memphis/Cincy/SMU, losing in the final, 19-13, 49 RPI, 30 SOS.

Which means, of course, they need to win. 20-12 with the conference championship--however unlikely that is--gets them a 10 or 11 seed..maybe 12 (which is best case, in a way, I'd guess).

I'd love to be in the tournament as a 12 seed. The 5 seed would be so mad haha.