KenPom Expectations - The Final 7

[joober jones]

They'll beat UCF. Put it in the bank.

I was actually right about something for once. Mark your calendars folks.

 

[temery]

I think if it comes down to us being on the bubble, I think we get into the tournament. The UConn name and injuries this year should help us win the argument. UConn basketball makes headlines in March and everyone knows that.

UConn isn't even close to the bubble. Winning the AAC tournament is the only chance.

 

[Scottzer]

There are some flaws with the KenPom model, but of all the metrics, it is the best predictor of future results. There is a reason there is a far greater correlation between KenPom and the betting lines than things like RPI, human polls, etc. Point differential is proven to be a better indicator than anything of future results.

The '11 team was extremely good but also extremely lucky. During the 11 game run alone, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Arizona, and Kentucky were either overtime or one possession games, and San Diego State was a one point game in the final two minutes.

The '14 team, on the other hand, probably doesn't get the credit they deserve - for a supposed Cinderella, they pretty much took the toughest possible road and handled everybody. Besides for Kentucky, every team they beat won either their conference tournament or regular season title (and those were four power conferences + the A-10, the premier mid-major league).

Yeah, but you really don't think the '11 team wouldn't beat the '14 team by 10-13 points? Lot more talent on that '11 team. Better role players on '14.

 

[zls44]

I don't think that'd be enough, but stranger things have happened. Going 13-2 in the season's last 15 games is a pretty decent argument despite our abysmal start to the year.

Irrelevant to the committee. They don't look at stuff like "Last 10" anymore, nor should they.

 

[zls44]

But the reality is that KenPom does a bad job of adjusting to shifts in quality of play, or injuries, etc. It isn't a very good predictor when those factors are involved.

His rankings literally incorporate those things. BPI incorporates the injury side better, but KP does factor it in.

Unlike RPI. Which is total crap.

 

[Matrim55]

Irrelevant to the committee. They don't look at stuff like "Last 10" anymore, nor should they.

Are you sure? Because they definitely didn't factor in the first half of Syracuse's season last year.

 

[tzznandrew]

Are you sure? Because they definitely didn't factor in the first half of Syracuse's season last year.

But Boehem was out, and that was how they were able to use it more logically.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I'd love to be in the tournament as a 12 seed. The 5 seed would be so mad haha.

I think the 12 seed wins like 70% of the time. If we lost in the finals to Memphis last year we would have probably been a 12 seed and would not have had to face #1 overall Kansas. 12 is one of the better seeds to be. 7-11 are tough because any way you slice it you have to have to beat a top 3 seed (barring another huge upset) to get to the sweet 16. If you're a 12 you need to beat at most a 4 seed. These types of things are the glaring flaws with the tourney but also what makes it great.

 

[Jerry1714]

Never forget how winning an NC and 11 post-season games in a row wasn't good enough to get UConn in Ken Poms Top 10.

I will never forgot how you had and still have no idea how the Kenpom rankings work.

 

[Waquoit]

I will never forgot how you had and still have no idea how the Kenpom rankings work.

True, but I went to UConn and passed Statistics 101 so I'm pretty sure I would understand it if I gave a crap. My point is no matter how it works, if it results in that team being ranked 11th I consider it suspect. You disagree, OK.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think the 12 seed wins like 70% of the time.

The No. 5 seed is 82–46 against the No. 12 seed (.641)

It just feels like there are more upsets there because the drop from the 4-seed's winning percentage is huge (.797). Honestly, the 12 seed usually gets the best of the mid-majors, or talented but underachieving major schools who can beat anyone on any given night (why they made it) but most nights haven't (why their a 12-seed). 2000 Missouri is the easy go-to example for that.

 

[HuskyHawk]

True, but I went to UConn and passed Statistics 101 so I'm pretty sure I would understand it if I gave a crap. My point is no matter how it works, if it results in that team being ranked 11th I consider it suspect. You disagree, OK.

I hated that class.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

The No. 5 seed is 82–46 against the No. 12 seed (.641)

It just feels like there are more upsets there because the drop from the 4-seed's winning percentage is huge (.797). Honestly, the 12 seed usually gets the best of the mid-majors, or talented but underachieving major schools who can beat anyone on any given night (why they made it) but most nights haven't (why their a 12-seed). 2000 Missouri is the easy go-to example for that.

A bit of hyperbole on my part but I'd still rather be a 12 than an 8.

 

[tzznandrew]

A bit of hyperbole on my part but I'd still rather be a 12 than an 8.

Me too.

20 times a 12 seed has made the S16, an 8 has only done it 12 times.

If you are an 8/9, you are definitely playing the 1 seed. As a 12, the 5 is a very good team, but not great, similar to the 4...but you might get a 13 seed, which has happened 11 times (12 vs. 13). Much higher odds.

Now, a 12 has never beaten the 1 seed, but you always have the chance the 8/9 seed will take care of business there for you.

Long point of saying that I agree with your overall assertion.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Me too.

20 times a 12 seed has made the S16, an 8 has only done it 12 times.

If you are an 8/9, you are definitely playing the 1 seed. As a 12, the 5 is a very good team, but not great, similar to the 4..but you might get a 13 seed, which has happened 11 times (12 vs. 13). Much higher odds.

Now, a 12 has never beaten the 1 seed, but you always have the chance the 8/9 seed will take care of business there for you.

Long point of saying that I agree with your overall assertion.

Absolutely. Last year sucked having to play Kansas meanwhile Cuse is beating riff raff all the way to the Final Four.

 

[auror]

If you want to make the F4 as a double digit seed, 11 is the seed to be. You avoid the 1 until E8, which gives maximum upset time. You get an average team as a 6 which you have decent odds to upset (same rate as 12s over 5s), then the 3, and 11s have beaten 3s at roughly the same rate that 12s beat 4s. But they've beaten the next opponent (usually 2) 6 times more often than the 12 has theirs (usually 1). The 1 has ~70% chance to be there in that round for the 12, while 2 is only 47%. Much better odds for a weaker team. The 12 has never made the F4, while 11 has 3 times.

 

[willie99]

never forget

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

4-0

 

[Pudge]

I hated that class.

Waquoit and HuskyHawk ... you could take more Statistics. They actually had 200 level courses.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Waquoit and HuskyHawk ... you could take more Statistics. They actually had 200 level courses.

Is there a 200 level course in pulling your fingernails out with pliers? Because that would be more fun.

 

[Pudge]

Is there a 200 level course in pulling your fingernails out with pliers? Because that would be more fun.

You guys probably took the course with business majors surrounding you.

Take a Grad level Stats course with NOTHING but Social Science kids that NEED the course for their Masters/PhD. And ... they avoid taking any quantitative courses all their lives cause "they think they aren't good at it". That is unbelievably fun.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You guys probably took the course with business majors surrounding you.

Take a Grad level Stats course with NOTHING but Social Science kids that NEED the course for their Masters/PhD. And ... they avoid taking any quantitative courses all their lives cause "they think they aren't good at it". That is unbelievably fun.

I was one of the business majors, so yeah. Finance was plenty math heavy, I just thought the Stats prof sucked.

 

[Leebo]

True, but I went to UConn and passed Statistics 101 so I'm pretty sure I would understand it if I gave a crap. My point is no matter how it works, if it results in that team being ranked 11th I consider it suspect. You disagree, OK.

Kenpom spreads are usually pretty close to Vegas lines. What you're saying is you think UConn should be favorites in spreads against those other teams if you think they should be higher in Kenpom for that year. Imagine UConn being matched up against those other teams in a game that takes place outside of the tournament. Would, should, that team be favored against them all?

 

[Jerry1714]

Kenpom spreads are usually pretty close to Vegas lines. What you're saying is you think UConn should be favorites in spreads against those other teams if you think they should be higher in Kenpom for that year. Imagine UConn being matched up against those other teams in a game that takes place outside of the tournament. Would, should, that team be favored against them all?

It is amazing that people are unable to grasp the fact that upsets happen in sports, or that sometimes a team who has performed on average better over 30 games does not win on a certain day to a myriad of reasons.

 

[EROCK CONN]

Absolutely. Last year sucked having to play Kansas meanwhile Cuse is beating riff raff all the way to the Final Four.

Meh, let that nice little program have their nice little dance to the final four: our runs end up with the title and the prom queen.