Here's a table of the last 10 teams to be KenPom #1 at this point in the season and some notes on how their season ended.
Year | Team | AdjEM | Seed | Result | End Rank | Notes |
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2021-2022 | Gonzaga | 29.23 | 1 | Sweet 16 | 1 | Chet foul trouble and guards failed. |
2020-2021* | Gonzaga | 31.17 | 1 | Runner Up | 1 | Undefeated and then killed by Baylor in title game |
2019-2020 | Ohio St | 29.31 | 5* | N/A | 8 | COVID no tournament, 5 seed estimated by bracket matrix. |
2018-2019 | Duke | 30.61 | 1 | Elite 8 | 4 | Zion team, lost by 1. Had 2 FTs down 2 with 5 sec left |
2017-2018 | Villanova | 29.35 | 1 | Champion | 1 | Best team to win title in last 10 years |
2016-2017 | Duke | 30.29 | 2 | Round of 32 | 14 | Struggled ACC play but won ACC tournament, lost to South Carolina who did end up making Final 4 |
2015-2016 | Virginia | 0.9438 | 1 | Elite 8 | 4 | Lost to Syracuse. Good not great team |
2014-2015 | Kentucky | 0.9728 | 1 | Final 4 | 1 | Probably best team in last 10 years. |
2013-2014 | Louisville | 0.9556 | 4 | Sweet 16 | 1 | Lost to Kentucky who lost to us in title game |
2012-2013 | Indiana | 0.9725 | 1 | Sweet 16 | 3 | Lost to Syracuse. Didn't make any shots against the zone (career 44% guy went 0/5). |
| | | | | | |
2022-2023 | UConn | 29.51 | ? | ? | ? | |
* used later date in season since season started later.
So 7 of the 10 got a 1-seed in the tournament. 5 of the 10 finished the season as the #1 ranked KenPom team. But only 1 won the title, and 2 others made the Final 4 out of the 9 tournaments. 2 others made Elite 8, but 3 made only the Sweet 16. 1 didn't even get that far (but the team had been tailing off obviously as the season went on).
We're firmly in the middle of the pack as far as team quality at the moment, which is a good sign (although Adh EM isn't necessarily designed to compare across years so much as within one year)..