KenPom #1

[Leebo]

Yeah, Quad Win conversations are a NET-specific thing.

 

[MTBingNinja]

Ummmmm. Houston has 1 loss. UConn has 0.

 

[Vuce]

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Look at UConn's most recent games:

Now, look at Purdue's most recent games:

Which results of their respective slate look more like the #1 team in the country?

Also, if we played Purdue, we'd win at least 6 times out of 10. Edey/Sanogo would be almost a wash, but we'd smother their freshman backcourt.

I try to stay objective and not let my fandom get in the way of guessing AP polls, but it's pretty clear that UConn SHOULD be the #1 team in the country.

 

[auror]

Evan and Bart are dead to us.

 

[tzznandrew]

When you look at the KenPom AdjEM, there are a few tiers, with some minitiers within them

Tier 1
A
1. UConn 31.20
B
2. Houston 30.13
C
3. UCLA (28.22), 4. Tennessee (28.06)

Tier 2
5. Kansas (25.79) to 15. Baylor (22.29)
You could further break these down into sub-tiers, but the difference between Kansas and Tennessee is pretty stark, and the difference between Kansas and Baylor is barely more than between UConn and Tennessee. The drop from Baylor to St. Mary's is stark.

Tier 3
16. St. Mary's (20.47) to 23. Iowa (19.67)

It's hard to know where we should cut it, but there's almost a full point drop to down to 24 Virginia Tech. This doesn't seem to have sub-tiers.

 

[ihatepants]

Look at UConn's most recent games:

View attachment 82060

Now, look at Purdue's most recent games:

View attachment 82061

Which results of their respective slate look more like the #1 team in the country?

Also, if we played Purdue, we'd win at least 6 times out of 10. Edey/Sanogo would be almost a wash, but we'd smother their freshman backcourt.

I try to stay objective and not let my fandom get in the way of guessing AP polls, but it's pretty clear that UConn SHOULD be the #1 team in the country.

Don’t tell that to the Purdue fans

 

[Blue Idiaco]

Being in the big East is going to hurt UConn's resume' and also may hurt its prep for NCAA as really only facing one first round NBA talent (Cam Whitmore) and maybe no ranked team the rest of the season. That being said, as one Villanova fan told me, it was the same for them in 2016 and 2018, but every game WAS the season for their opponent and they played way over their scouting report, especially at home. That was enough for Villanova and hopefully enough for UConn to have some tourney success, but Wright was also smart enough to put together a very challenging OOC schedule. As bad as the AAC and ACC are this year, playing Houston, UVA and/or Duke would each be 100x better than any BE game this year.

 

[Waquoit]

Don’t tell that to the Purdue fans

These people are from the Midwest. You have to adjust the algorithm to get the correct opinion. Instead of 1.0 as a factor you use from someone in the Northeast, from the Midwest you have to use .80

 

[Vuce]

Being in the big East is going to hurt UConn's resume' and also may hurt its prep for NCAA as really only facing one first round NBA talent (Cam Whitmore) and maybe no ranked team the rest of the season. That being said, as one Villanova fan told me, it was the same for them in 2016 and 2018, but every game WAS the season for their opponent and they played way over their scouting report, especially at home. That was enough for Villanova and hopefully enough for UConn to have some tourney success, but Wright was also smart enough to put together a very challenging OOC schedule. As bad as the AAC and ACC are this year, playing Houston, UVA and/or Duke would each be 100x better than any BE game this year.

Yeah if we only lose a couple games the rest of the way we might only get a 1 seed and play in Albany and MSG.

 

[NJHoops]

That being said, as one Villanova fan told me, it was the same for them in 2016 and 2018, but every game WAS the season for their opponent and they played way over their scouting report, especially at home. That was enough for Villanova and hopefully enough for UConn to have some tourney success, but Wright was also smart enough to put together a very challenging OOC schedule.

Yes, the legendary 2018 challenges of Columbia, Nicholls State, Lafayette, Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Penn, St. Joe’s, Gonzaga, La Salle, Temple, and Hofstra.

Or, the treacherous 2016 OOC schedule that was FDU, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech, St. Joe’s, Oklahoma, La Salle, Virginia, Delaware, Temple, and Penn.

UConn is going to be very successful this year, or they’re not, but you are absolutely not going to be finding me trying to dissect every little possible negative thing, lest we actually experience happiness and joy related to college basketball. Of course they are going to get every conference opponents best shot, they’re freaking UConn- that’s the way it is supposed to be.

 

[Blue Idiaco]

Yes, the legendary 2018 challenges of Columbia, Nicholls State, Lafayette, Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Penn, St. Joe’s, Gonzaga, La Salle, Temple, and Hofstra.

Or, the treacherous 2016 OOC schedule that was FDU, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech, St. Joe’s, Oklahoma, La Salle, Virginia, Delaware, Temple, and Penn.

UConn is going to be very successful this year, or they’re not, but you are absolutely not going to be finding me trying to dissect every little possible negative thing, lest we actually experience happiness and joy related to college basketball. Of course they are going to get every conference opponents best shot, they’re freaking UConn- that’s the way it is supposed to be.

In 2018 TN and Gonzaga were both top 13 teams in KenPom (plus Xavier and Butler and Seton hall were top 25). In 2016, UVa was 4th and Oklahoma was 10th. right now Uconn will have faced Alabama (12th) and that's it in top 25.

Not dissecting, just saying that the Big East sucks this year and the non-conf schedule broke easier than it could have on paper (Florida sucks, PK, etc). Will it matter? I hope not, and did not for Villanova, but the quoted Purdue fan tweet was not wrong.

 

[Umami Zen]

It's good to be back in the conversation.. But if you know anything about UConn history.. It's about what happens in March.. We got ourselves a March team this year.. Let's get our two other trophies first(after PKI)..Big East season champs.. BET champs.. Then you know what's next.

 

[Leebo]

Don’t tell that to the Purdue fans

Purdue is about to spend this week playing New Orleans and Florida A&M, so that SOS ranking is going to dip before it comes back up.

 

[Alum1620]

Purdue is about to spend this week playing New Orleans and Florida A&M, so that SOS ranking is going to dip before it comes back up.

They are fighting it because they are scared that they will lose a chance of having a 1 next to their name in their next game which is at home.

 

[RayRay]

In 2018 TN and Gonzaga were both top 13 teams in KenPom (plus Xavier and Butler and Seton hall were top 25). In 2016, UVa was 4th and Oklahoma was 10th. right now Uconn will have faced Alabama (12th) and that's it in top 25.

Not dissecting, just saying that the Big East sucks this year and the non-conf schedule broke easier than it could have on paper (Florida sucks, PK, etc). Will it matter? I hope not, and did not for Villanova, but the quoted Purdue fan tweet was not wrong.

There’s always multiple ways to look at any scenario, and you could say, “hey, they aren’t wrong” for all of the different ways. Sure, Purdue fan isn’t wrong, but the way we have beaten our opponents is telling enough for me.

Put Purdue, Houston, Virginia, Tennessee, whatever good top team, and I would bet a lot of money that they wouldn’t beat all 12 teams by double figures and in the fashion that we did. Unfortunately there’s no way to show concrete evidence for this point like you can with the resume, but it’s hard to argue against this too.

We’re really really good but we’re going to have to continue to prove it in the big east, the big east tourney, and then in March. No one is giving us anything this year, and why should they? We’re back, let us prove it and show the world that we’re back.

 

[UChusky916]

Who cares if we're 1 or 2? These are opinions of voters... many of which barely watch the games outside of the team they cover. I could give 2 what they think.

What's more important to me is that the team stays healthy, guys improve a bit, and that we play well in March. I don't doubt that we'll eventually lose, but it's how the team responds and how they peak in March.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Who cares if we're 1 or 2? These are opinions of voters... many of which barely watch the games outside of the team they cover. I could give 2 what they think.

What's more important to me is that the team stays healthy, guys improve a bit, and that we play well in March. I don't doubt that we'll eventually lose, but it's how the team responds and how they peak in March.

For the love of all things holy, can people please stop saying “who cares?”

There’s nothing lamer than this ‘I’m too cool to care about rankings’ attitude some of you have. I promise you aren’t special, nobody cares that you’re supposedly above it, while simultaneously making sure everyone knows how much you’re above it.

People care, fans and analysts talk about who the best team is all the time. Do you just miss all these conversations?

Casual fans see it, recruits see it, analysts are forced to talk about it. It’s great marketing material for a program we all spend too much time obsessing over. Success breeds more success.

On top of all of that, does the team not deserve the proper credit they’re due for busting their behinds through the first third of the season? Why shouldn’t they want to take their proper spot atop the college basketball world, when they’ve more than earned it? Demand the respect they’ve earned.

This post isn’t just about you, it’s directed at everyone who posts similar sentiments all the time that just don’t get it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

As this board's foremest KenPom expert/enthusiast....

I'm so happy.

Since you are the expert on KenPom, you are also responsible for some of its obvious mistakes.

How is a 7-3 Kentucky team number 8 in KenPom? 4 of its wins are against teams ranked 229 or worse, and it only has 2 Top 100 wins (#50 Michigan and #79 Yale). It lost to all three Top 40 opponents, and its losses to UCLA and Gonzaga were by 10 or more points, which should ding a team pretty badly in an efficiency-based rating.

Why is Kentucky ranked ahead of Gonzaga, which is 9-3 against a much better schedule and has more quality wins? And Gonzaga beat Kentucky by 16 when they played.

And Kentucky is ranked higher than multiple teams (Alabama, Baylor, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia) that have better records against tougher schedules.

How does that happen?

 

[Leebo]

Since you are the expert on KenPom, you are also responsible for some of its obvious mistakes.

How is a 7-3 Kentucky team number 8 in KenPom? 4 of its wins are against teams ranked 229 or worse, and it only has 2 Top 100 wins (#50 Michigan and #79 Yale). It lost to all three Top 40 opponents, and its losses to UCLA and Gonzaga were by 10 or more points, which should ding a team pretty badly in an efficiency-based rating.

Why is Kentucky ranked ahead of Gonzaga, which is 9-3 against a much better schedule and has more quality wins? And Gonzaga beat Kentucky by 16 when they played.

And Kentucky is ranked higher than multiple teams (Alabama, Baylor, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia) that have better records against tougher schedules.

How does that happen?

Wasn't Kentucky the preseason #1 in kenpom? In other words, they have the most weighting of preseason expectations holding them up. It'll continue to dissipate over time.

There may be other reasons as well, that's just what came to my mind first.

 

[jibsey]

Since you are the expert on KenPom, you are also responsible for some of its obvious mistakes.

How is a 7-3 Kentucky team number 8 in KenPom? 4 of its wins are against teams ranked 229 or worse, and it only has 2 Top 100 wins (#50 Michigan and #79 Yale). It lost to all three Top 40 opponents, and its losses to UCLA and Gonzaga were by 10 or more points, which should ding a team pretty badly in an efficiency-based rating.

Why is Kentucky ranked ahead of Gonzaga, which is 9-3 against a much better schedule and has more quality wins? And Gonzaga beat Kentucky by 16 when they played.

And Kentucky is ranked higher than multiple teams (Alabama, Baylor, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia) that have better records against tougher schedules.

How does that happen?

They probably have 5 NBA lottery picks.

 

[auror]

Since you are the expert on KenPom, you are also responsible for some of its obvious mistakes.

How is a 7-3 Kentucky team number 8 in KenPom? 4 of its wins are against teams ranked 229 or worse, and it only has 2 Top 100 wins (#50 Michigan and #79 Yale). It lost to all three Top 40 opponents, and its losses to UCLA and Gonzaga were by 10 or more points, which should ding a team pretty badly in an efficiency-based rating.

Why is Kentucky ranked ahead of Gonzaga, which is 9-3 against a much better schedule and has more quality wins? And Gonzaga beat Kentucky by 16 when they played.

And Kentucky is ranked higher than multiple teams (Alabama, Baylor, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia) that have better records against tougher schedules.

How does that happen?

Wasn't Kentucky the preseason #1 in kenpom? In other words, they have the most weighting of preseason expectations holding them up. It'll continue to dissipate over time.

There may be other reasons as well, that's just what came to my mind first.

Yes to preseason #1. And they've only played 10 games so there's more proportional preseason weight still than teams that have played 12. The main thing is that ranks aren't created equal. Sometimes there's more adjEM separation between ranks. They've fallen 5 adjEM, which if they started at ~20th rank and lost 5 adjEM it would put them closer to 50th (so loss of 30 ranks instead of 6). They weren't just #1 preseason, they were 1.3 clear of #2. They've fallen quite a bit and are basically now back in the pack as it were.

Also to mitigate their losses they took care of business against their cupcakes by decently big margins, especially North Florida. Their losses are all neutral or away, 2 of which to top 10 teams. The Gonzaga loss was big margin but lots of possessions so per possession margin isnt as stark (but they did drop a bunch from that game).

 

[Get a Job]

Houston jumped back in front for the moment. Time to beat up on Villanofun and regain the top spot!

 

[Scrutineer]

Since you are the expert on KenPom, you are also responsible for some of its obvious mistakes.

How is a 7-3 Kentucky team number 8 in KenPom? 4 of its wins are against teams ranked 229 or worse, and it only has 2 Top 100 wins (#50 Michigan and #79 Yale). It lost to all three Top 40 opponents, and its losses to UCLA and Gonzaga were by 10 or more points, which should ding a team pretty badly in an efficiency-based rating.

Why is Kentucky ranked ahead of Gonzaga, which is 9-3 against a much better schedule and has more quality wins? And Gonzaga beat Kentucky by 16 when they played.

And Kentucky is ranked higher than multiple teams (Alabama, Baylor, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia) that have better records against tougher schedules.

How does that happen?

If all you said is true, who could argue against it?

 

[prankster]

I repair human beings for a living. I always want a perfect process leading to a perfect outcome.

Where do you buy your parts?