Kansas, Nova, Virginia and the ESPN Hype Machine

[huskiesNhoos]

Either Michigan State and Izzo are awesome or Virginia is a paper tiger. It can't be both.

Izzo is an "awesome" coach in march. Coupled with several uva injuries, that's what you get.

 

[tzznandrew]

Or maybe Bill Self is a great coach whose teams win 30 games in a down year and they lost to a really good, highly motivated Wichita State team. You know, the team that was in the Final Four two years ago and started 35-0 last season.

This loss was no surprise. Wichita State wanted to get them badly, and Kansas overachieved all season.

That said, the narrative around Self is there for a reason. They've flamed out with a number of good teams. Were the Northern Iowa game the exception--and you couldn't also point to Bucknell and a number of other schools, it would be wrong.

Not to say the dude is a bad coach. He's actually really good. You can't win any conference that frequently without being a good coach. And he had great tournament runs as a lower seed, most notably taking Tulsa to the E8 in 2000.

I just think the pressure of the moment gets to him sometimes when he's got something to lose (i.e. the higher seed...or like in 2010 the odds on favorite by most to win).

 

[Inyatkin]

This loss was no surprise. Wichita State wanted to get them badly, and Kansas overachieved all season.

That said, the narrative around Self is there for a reason. They've flamed out with a number of good teams. Were the Northern Iowa game the exception--and you couldn't also point to Bucknell and a number of other schools, it would be wrong.

Not to say the dude is a bad coach. He's actually really good. You can't win any conference that frequently without being a good coach. And he had great tournament runs as a lower seed, most notably taking Tulsa to the E8 in 2000.

I just think the pressure of the moment gets to him sometimes when he's got something to lose (i.e. the higher seed...or like in 2010 the odds on favorite by most to win).

Eh, maybe. You're a top-2 seed every year, you're going to have some flameouts. But he has a title, other Final Fours and they never have a down year. The number of schools that wouldn't trade their record for his is really small.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

I posted a long thing in another topic and I'm not going to repeat all of it, but Self's teams consistently overachieve in the regular season (finish higher in final poll than pre-season poll), and thus always have a good seed. Therefore, when they get beat, it's a major upset. If they had been 5 or 6 seeds lower, where probably they deserved to be a few of the years they got upset, we wouldn't be having this conversation. It's all about how the narrative is framed by their seeding.

Honestly, we all knew they weren't a 2-seed this year. Anyone who didn't pick Wichita to beat them hasn't been watching this season. But they had a 2-seed's resume, because once again they overachieved this year. They won the Big 12 (the supposed best conference) with 10 freshmen and sophomores. Last year they lost Embiid to injury. And then 8 years ago they got upset twice in a row as high-ish seeds. In Self's other years they made 7 Sweet Sixteens.

UConn has a down year, we miss the tourny. Self's down years are a 2-seed getting beat in round of 64/32.

What are you talking about? Bill Self has been bringing in Calipari type talent for years now. How have they been overachieving?

They had the top 2 picks in the draft last year and got a gift 2 seed last year with 10 losses. They've lost 20 games in the last two years with 7 top 10 recruits.

 

[tzznandrew]

Eh, maybe. You're a top-2 seed every year, you're going to have some flameouts. But he has a title, other Final Fours and they never have a down year. The number of schools that wouldn't trade their record for his is really small.

You are. But I think there are more here than there should be.

He overachieved his first year as a 1 seed in 2004, taking them to the E8 (although he did get a 12 seed in the second round and a 9 seed rather than the 1 seed in the S16).

He promptly lost to a 14 seed (Bucknell) and a 13 seed (Bradley) the next two years.

In 2007, he made the E8 as a 1 and lost to 2 UCLA. Fine.

In 2008 he won the whole damn thing.

2009 they were a 3 seed and lost to 2 seed Michigan state. Fine.

2010 they were a 1 seed and lost to 9 Northern Iowa.

2011 they were a 1 seed and lost in the E8 to 11 VCU (akin to our George Mason loss).

2012 they lost in the title game as a 2 seed.

2013 they lost as a 1 to a 4 (akin to our Mississippi State loss).

In the last two years, in the second round as a 2 seed, they've lost to a 10 and a 7.

All in all, they've planted on their faces more than they should. You could make the argument that planting on your face early in the tournament is better than not making it--especially when they have a good regular season. That's fine. I probably agree.

But damn, I would think they should have more than 2 Final Fours with all those 1 and 2 seeds (8 in Self's time).

 

[tzznandrew]

What are you talking about? Bill Self has been bringing in Calipari type talent for years now. How have they been overachieving?

They had the top 2 picks in the draft last year and got a gift 2 seed last year with 10 losses. They've lost 20 games in the last two years with 7 top 10 recruits.

In the recruiting world, it's been Kentucky on it's own level, and then Kansas/UNC/Duke right behind them, with Duke in the last few years coming in right behind Kentucky (at least for top level recruits, if not depth).

 

[Inyatkin]

But damn, I would think they should have more than 2 Final Fours with all those 1 and 2 seeds (8 in Self's time).

I don't want to belabor the point, but in Calhoun's first seven times as a 1 or 2 seed, he had one Final Four. No first weekend losses, granted, but you'd take those, I think, over the NIT appearance we like to sprinkle in the mix. And that's comparing him to one of the handful of best coaches ever.

 

[ctchamps]

In the recruiting world, it's been Kentucky on it's own level, and then Kansas/UNC/Duke right behind them, with Duke in the last few years coming in right behind Kentucky (at least for top level recruits, if not depth).

You are talking recently aren't you. Kentucky didn't recruit better than those three during the Tubby era.

 

[tzznandrew]

You are talking recently aren't you. Kentucky didn't recruit better than those three during the Tubby era.

I mean in the John Calipari era.

Before that, UNC, Duke, and Kansas more or less had their choice after Pitino left UK.

 

[tzznandrew]

I don't want to belabor the point, but in Calhoun's first seven times as a 1 or 2 seed, he had one Final Four. No first weekend losses, granted, but you'd take those, I think, over the NIT appearance we like to sprinkle in the mix. And that's comparing him to one of the handful of best coaches ever.

True, but Calhoun never recruited like Self did. And Calhoun had to build UConn, whereas Self walked into a Kansas team that just came off a title loss.

So, while I might take the first weekend losses over an NIT, Calhoun's first 7 times as a 1 or 2 seed (1990, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2002) had fewer McDonald's All-Americans total than this Kansas team has...

 

[lange10]

Might get some hate for this but outside of UConn there's no coach I have more respect for than Izzo. Not a lot of talent this year and has a great shot at a FF. Sure it's all about matchups and they played an injury plagued Virginia team but if you told me this Michigan St. team would have a chance at the final four coming into the season I'd laugh at you considering what they lose.

As for Self, I've never understood those who think he pads the OOC schedule for early season wins and a padded record.
Recent OOC SOS for Kansas according to teamrankings:
2015 - 1
2014 - 2
2013 - 5
2012 - 1
2011 - 17

That coupled with 11 straight big 12 reg. season titles is enough to gain my respect. Besides the past 2 years and the early exits his tournament resume is pretty damn good. 2 sweet 16, 3 E8, 1 runner up and 1 title. A lot better than that bum Boeheim.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Kansas loaded up OOC this year. They went out of their league to play Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida, Georgetown, Utah, Temple, and UNLV. Yeah, those teams didn't all have good years, but those are all real programs.

 

[Fishy]

It's just been constant all year. These were their network coaching stars Self, Wright, and Bennett, the dream dies hard. So far the only one left out is Roy Williams and his program of term paperback writers.

Why would ESPN hype Villanova?

They spend more time on teams in the top 5/10.

The rest of this is in your head.

 

[auror]

They've lost 20 games in the last two years with 7 top 10 recruits.

They had the highest KenPom SOS since 2007 this year and went 27-9 and lost in the tournament to a team who is 95-14 in the last 3 years, again with a team composed of 5 freshmen and 5 sophomores. And last year they played the tournament without Embiid.

What are you talking about? Bill Self has been bringing in Calipari type talent for years now. How have they been overachieving?

It's really not as easy to win with freshmen as Calipari is making it seem. Even Kentucky missed the tournament in 2013 with the #1 recruiting class. Forget missing the tournament, Self hasn't earned less than a 4 seed in his 12 seasons at Kansas. I'm not saying the cupboard is bare, but the consistency to win 12 straight conference titles and never be less than a 4 seed requires overachieving just to overcome the variance. Hell, even Duke has a 6 seed in that span.

 

[jibsey]

Might get some hate for this but outside of UConn there's no coach I have more respect for than Izzo. Not a lot of talent this year and has a great shot at a FF. Sure it's all about matchups and they played an injury plagued Virginia team but if you told me this Michigan St. team would have a chance at the final four coming into the season I'd laugh at you considering what they lose.

As for Self, I've never understood those who think he pads the OOC schedule for early season wins and a padded record.
Recent OOC SOS for Kansas according to teamrankings:
2015 - 1
2014 - 2
2013 - 5
2012 - 1
2011 - 17

That coupled with 11 straight big 12 reg. season titles is enough to gain my respect. Besides the past 2 years and the early exits his tournament resume is pretty damn good. 2 sweet 16, 3 E8, 1 runner up and 1 title. A lot better than that bum Boeheim.

"Not a lot of talent?" MSU's players are less talented than ours?

 

[tzznandrew]

"Not a lot of talent?" MSU's players are less talented than ours?

According to 247, they had the 23rd ranked class in 2011 (this year's seniors), headed by Branden Dawson at 20. UConn was ranked 20.

2012: They had the 12th ranked class, headed by Gary Harris at 26; UConn was ranked 21.
2013: Their class wasn't ranked by 247 sports in the Top 50; UConn was 43
2014: Their class was ranked 50; UConn was 36.

The last two years look like they were rough for MSU. 2011 and 2012 they had a number of Top 100 players. But definitely not a ton.

 

[ctchamps]

According to 247, they had the 23rd ranked class in 2011 (this year's seniors), headed by Branden Dawson at 20. UConn was ranked 20.

2012: They had the 12th ranked class, headed by Gary Harris at 26; UConn was ranked 21.
2013: Their class wasn't ranked by 247 sports in the Top 50; UConn was 43
2014: Their class was ranked 50; UConn was 36.

The last two years look like they were rough for MSU. 2011 and 2012 they had a number of Top 100 players. But definitely not a ton.

You killed several birds with this. Perception is a biatch!

 

[businesslawyer]

Gotta love the Boneyard. No upsets -- it's a conspiracy and the refs are preventing the lower seeds from winning. Upsets -- it's a conspiracy because it proves the favorites were overhyped.

Or, upsets happen sometimes but not most of the time and it proves nothing but that anyone can win a basketball game.

 

[ctchamps]

Gotta love the Boneyard. No upsets -- it's a conspiracy and the refs are preventing the lower seeds from winning. Upsets -- it's a conspiracy because it proves the favorites were overhyped.

Or, upsets happen sometimes but not most of the time and it proves nothing but that anyone can win a basketball game.

you left out the P5 conspiracy!

 

[jibsey]

According to 247, they had the 23rd ranked class in 2011 (this year's seniors), headed by Branden Dawson at 20. UConn was ranked 20.

2012: They had the 12th ranked class, headed by Gary Harris at 26; UConn was ranked 21.
2013: Their class wasn't ranked by 247 sports in the Top 50; UConn was 43
2014: Their class was ranked 50; UConn was 36.

The last two years look like they were rough for MSU. 2011 and 2012 they had a number of Top 100 players. But definitely not a ton.

What I said refers to the actual talent of the team, not what the classes were ranked. If you're going by preseason team rankings we were top 20. Izzo's team this year was more talented than ours in their more difficult league and obviously in the tournament. Testament to how he evaluates, chooses, and develops players? So we were higher ranked but they turned out more talented this year.

 

[Lefty2one]

KU is just like Duke - they always get the benefit of the doubt in the polls, play in a weak conference (pre-CR Duke I'm talking about) and recruit well enough that their down years still allow them to compete for conference championships. That's a perfect formula for getting overseeded. Duke went through the same thing 2005-2013 when the ACC was horrible outside of Duke/UNC and they wound up overseeded many times and had some bad tourney losses.

The Big 12 is also just Kansas, the rest of the programs are overrated or bad. There is no secondary or tertiary program to knock them off here and there and rule the conference. No P5 conference should have one school win 11 straight titles, that's idiotic. When you keep winning a perceived "power" conference regular season championship you're going to get high seeds in the Big Dance. Some years you get upset but you'll hit your one good run every 3-5 years when you legitimately have a good team.

This year, anyone who watched KU knew they weren't going far in the tournament. A ton of analysts picked them to lose to WSU.