Ivy League Cancels Hoops Tournament

[superjohn]

Because the answer is in your numbers. The flu has a 0.1% death rate. The most conservative estimates (which attempt to account for the lack of better testing) put this virus as 10x more deadly and initial studies have shown more contagious. As has been pointed out, China's death rate has been 20-30x more and Italy is currently experiencing a 60x more deadly effect. The true rate is probably in the 15-25x more deadly range.

The most proactive country who limited a decent sized outbreak and kept it to only a small sect of their population has been South Korea. They successfully kept it to mostly one small quarantined community which skewed younger and female, and they tested extensively in order to ensure that was the case. Their date rate was only 0.7%, so still 7x more deadly than the average flu in the pretty much absolute best case scenario of intense zeal.

But again why the public reaction. The numbers are seriously declining in China and we all know the people who really have to fear this are the old and infirmed. Why is everything shutting down?

Numbers came directly from CDC site. What news media site should we be looking at? The media is reporting 10's of thousand when the CDC is saying 647? I wonder why people are panicking.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

I agree the media is freaking out more than they should but where have you seen them report 10's of thousands? I do a sweep of the news all the time and never saw that.

 

[auror]

But again why the public reaction. The numbers are seriously declining in China and we all know the people who really have to fear this are the old and infirmed. Why is everything shutting down?

I agree the media is freaking out more than they should but where have you seen them report 10's of thousands? I do a sweep of the news all the time and never saw that.

The numbers are declining because they shut everything down.

 

[Marat]

March Madness 2020 facing fanless games after governor’s coronavirus warning

March Madness 2020 games could be played without fans. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced Tuesday he is asking indoor sporting events take place without spectators “other than the athletes, pare…

nypost.com

 

[casual-yardin]

But again why the public reaction. The numbers are seriously declining in China and we all know the people who really have to fear this are the old and infirmed. Why is everything shutting down?

I agree the media is freaking out more than they should but where have you seen them report 10's of thousands? I do a sweep of the news all the time and never saw that.

LOL. We probably aren't "freaking out" enough.

 

[casual-yardin]

Numbers came directly from CDC site. What news media site should we be looking at? The media is reporting 10's of thousand when the CDC is saying 647? I wonder why people are panicking.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

I meant the flu numbers. Pretty sure 50k haven't died this season. I think that was around the number 3 years ago when it was really bad.

 

[Kathy]

I meant the flu numbers. Pretty sure 50k haven't died this season. I think that was around the number 3 years ago when it was really bad.

20K so far this season

 

[Marbles90]

I agree the media is freaking out more than they should but where have you seen them report 10's of thousands? I do a sweep of the news all the time and never saw that.

I haven’t. I was just repeating what someone said here — “upwards of 10K”. I assume they got that # from some media source.

 

[superjohn]

LOL. We probably aren't "freaking out" enough.

Are you 60 or older? Do you have pulmonary disease?

 

[Greedo]

Are you 60 or older? Do you have pulmonary disease?

I’m not but there are many people in my life that I care about that would fall into the at risk subset of the population. It’s a little callous to say welp I won’t die so who cares.

 

[navery12]

It's astonishing how many people are using the excuse of I won't die from it when that completely ignores the number of vulnerable people you can affect

 

[Leebo]

The numbers are declining because they shut everything down.

For some reason people don't seem to be aware that if you lived in the area around Wuhan you could barely leave your house for weeks.

Edit: in some areas it was as strict as only allowing one family member to leave every two days for essential goods only.

 

[casual-yardin]

No, I never get sick. I'm not worried about myself. I'm worried about others, our economy, the stock market, the tournament and our society in no particular order.

 

[Marbles90]

I meant the flu numbers. Pretty sure 50k haven't died this season. I think that was around the number 3 years ago when it was really bad.

The flu numbers are also pulled from the CDC site. As of 2/29/19:

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

 

[casual-yardin]

It's astonishing how many people are using the excuse of I won't die from it when that completely ignores the number of vulnerable people you can effect

This. It's like flu shots. People say "I don't get sick" without understanding that it's not about preventing them from getting sick. Its about the people that can't get the shot and are vulnerable. What's amazing is how many of these people there are. They are literally everywhere the past few days.

 

[casual-yardin]

The flu numbers are also pulled from the CDC site. As of 2/29/19:

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

Those are estimates (and using a purposely large range) for the entire season which hasn't ended yet. 50k have not died.

 

[superjohn]

I’m not but there are many people in my life that I care about that would fall into the at risk subset of the population. It’s a little callous to say welp I won’t die so who cares.

Who the hell said that?

Why am I not hearing about the people this effects overwhelmingly more than anyone else? All I hear and read is everyone should bunker down, we're rationing Tyler Phommachanh, cancelling schools, cancelling sports, Martial Law in some areas.

Wouldn't it be far more helpful to communicate who is by far the most at risk and who is least at risk. Shouldn't things be designed to have the truly at risk of getting sick and dying seperated from the rest of the population for like 2 weeks/until we have a better handle on things.

Of course I don't want any older people with pulmonary disease to die. This has nothing to do with compassion. My dad died from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

 

[Kathy]

Who the hell said that?

Why am I not hearing about the people this effects overwhelmingly more than anyone else? All I hear and read is everyone should bunker down, we're rationing Tyler Phommachanh, cancelling schools, cancelling sports, Martial Law in some areas.

Wouldn't it be far more helpful to communicate who is by far the most at risk and who is least at risk. Shouldn't things be designed to have the truly at risk of getting sick and dying seperated from the rest of the population for like 2 weeks/until we have a better handle on things.

Of course I don't want any older people with pulmonary disease to die. This has nothing to do with compassion. My dad died from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Except for ages 0-9 the mortality rate for covid is at least double that of the flu across all age groups
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

they should otherwise this all seems hypocritical.

Maybe.
It could be overly cautious of the Ivy League,and impact all mber schools.
More may be revealed to confirm or contradict the wisdom of not playing.
It needn't be hypocrisy, though it's legitimate for you to raise the question, and hedge with the word "seem."

Fwiw, Yale School of Music today announced cancelation of all concerts, as well as on-campus Met Opera sattelite live broadcasts through April 19th, after earlier in the week canceling an Eastern seaboard tour of a choral group.

 

[don356]

I would not have thought it possible, but i wonder if any team will decline an Ncaa tourney bid? Seems crazy, but this hysteria is out of control.

 

[tykurez]

This is from a doctor in Italy:

“The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

“The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

So have patience, too, that you cannot go to the theater, museums or gym. Try to have mercy on that myriad of older people you could exterminate.

Yes, this sucks for everyone. Sucks for the kids who have tournaments. The kids who are finishing their semesters at school. It’s especially awful for people who cannot afford to miss work and will not have a paid leave.

But there is overwhelming evidence that this is a SERIOUS deal but that if we take it as such and take drastic action we can stop it from being so much worse.

​

 

[BugsyCT]

Hard to tell yet whether it's been overblown or not. Eventually we'll find out. Sure the media is all over this but look what's happening worldwide. China's been basically shut down for over a month. Italy just followed suit. This virus, unlike flu strains, has no vaccine as of now and seems to be much more potent. Is it worth risking lives just to keep the games going? This goes way beyond sports and the economic hit it would take. I have an elderly mother to be concerned about, as do many of us have loved ones who could be vulnerable to this outbreak.

 

[tykurez]

Also for those who don’t understand how exponential growth works (particularly with viruses):

 

[HobokenHusky]

Cancel Everything

Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

www.theatlantic.com

I found this to be very helpful in understanding why it's important to take action now.

“Early guesstimates, made before data were widely available, suggested that the fatality rate for the coronavirus might wind up being about 1 percent. If that guess proves true, the coronavirus is 10 times as deadly as the flu.”

Seems legit

 

[djct1999]

This is from a doctor in Italy:







Yes, this sucks for everyone. Sucks for the kids who have tournaments. The kids who are finishing their semesters at school. It’s especially awful for people who cannot afford to miss work and will not have a paid leave.

But there is overwhelming evidence that this is a SERIOUS deal but that if we take it as such and take drastic action we can stop it from being so much worse.

​

there is no disputing that. so then cancel the whole damn thing. if the ivy league finds it a risk to play its tournament, then surely its a risk to play in a 20k arena in some city. can yale really send its team to play a first round game in spokane wa? what would the backlash be if someone on the team contacted the virus while out there?