Ivy League Cancels Hoops Tournament

[tykurez]

Stop equating this to the flu. This is not the flu. So far it doubles the flu in both deadliness and the rate at which it can spread. It also keeps a person hospitalized for far longer - our hospitals cannot handle this growing exponentially.

It is absurdly selfish to take this lightly because you’re not in the demographic that is at risk.

 

[krinklecut]

Cancel Everything

Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

www.theatlantic.com

I found this to be very helpful in understanding why it's important to take action now.

 

[FatElvis]

The big issue that many people seem to be missing is that symptoms from the flu appear far earlier than with the coronavirus. Often within 24 hours but up to five days.

The coronavirus can take up to two weeks before people even realize they have it. That alone makes it far more scary. Try and remember everyone you were in contact with two weeks ago and you can see where this is going. If they don't contain it ASAP, it's going to wreak havoc far worse than any flu.

 

[auror]

I'm amazed at the degree of panic-driven overreaction to this thing. The advice for protection against this virus is consistent with the time-tested advisories which include hand washing, avoiding touching facial orifices, wiping down surfaces, etc. If people choose to avoid travel or public gatherings, let it be a personal decision. Exponentially more people were diagnosed and died from non-corona flu virus here in the US last year but I don't recall hearing about events being canceled and people panicking. Why can't people just be sensible? Practice good and sensible hygiene practices, and if you are at higher risk with a compromised immune system, avoid putting yourself at greater risk for infection. The vast majority of people, those in low-risk categories, are experiencing only typical, non-life threatening flu symptoms. I have to think somewhere there are people grinning at the frenzied response to this thing and the effect it is having on everyday life and the economy.

Preventing large gatherings of people IS being sensible. I agree travel should be more of a personal decision until the disease has ramped up even more.

A German virus expert who discovered the initial SARS-CoV and who has developed a test for COVID-19 thinks it will infect 60-70% of the German population in a year or two. If those same numbers were to be accurate for the whole world, a simplistic assumption to be sure, and presuming the per case fatality rates were mostly accurate and sustained through increased attention being paid to the disease, that would mean 35 million deaths of people aged 50+ in a year or two.

He says:

"It can take two years or even longer," he said. The infection process only becomes problematic if it occurs in a compressed, short time. "That is why the authorities are doing everything they can to detect and slow down outbreaks" ... "If the whole pandemic happens before the virus becomes a common cold virus and no longer stands out, it can be dealt with in two years," said Drosten. "If it is a year, it will be much harder because we have a lot more cases at the same time."

 

[auror]

 

[glastonbury50]

And can someone explain to me the toilet paper thing? I mean, I guess I understand hand sanitizer selling out, but why toilet paper? I mean is it just a social media experiment just to see how much we can get people to panic?

Been using leaves for years in preparation for this.

 

[BlueMAB]

Cancel Everything

Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

www.theatlantic.com

I found this to be very helpful in understanding why it's important to take action now.

Thanks for sharing, the article makes sense, but who is fact-checking? Can you explain this to me on behalf of the writer?

"The same story is now playing out in other countries around the world. Italy had 62 identified cases of COVID-19 on the 22nd of February. It had 888 cases by the 29th of February, and 4,636 by the 6th of March...

...Meanwhile, the news from Italy, another country with a highly developed medical system, has so far been shockingly bad. In the affluent region of Lombardy, for example, there have been 7,375 confirmed cases of the virus as of Sunday."

Sunday was 3/8.

Is the author saying there were nearly 3k more cases in Lombardy alone than there was in all of Italy just 2 days later? What am I missing?

 

[auror]

Thanks for sharing, the article makes sense, but who is fact-checking? Can you explain this to me on behalf of the writer?

"The same story is now playing out in other countries around the world. Italy had 62 identified cases of COVID-19 on the 22nd of February. It had 888 cases by the 29th of February, and 4,636 by the 6th of March...

...Meanwhile, the news from Italy, another country with a highly developed medical system, has so far been shockingly bad. In the affluent region of Lombardy, for example, there have been 7,375 confirmed cases of the virus as of Sunday."

Sunday was 3/8.

Is the author saying there were nearly 3k more cases in Lombardy alone than there was in all of Italy just 2 days later? What am I missing?

Probably got their numbers from WHO. They're the same as the ones here:

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

But they do appear to both be numbers for Italy as a whole, not just Lombardy for the latter, so that's a mistake of wording. But yeah, Italy gained 60% more cases in 2 days.

 

[BlueMAB]

Probably got their numbers from WHO. They're the same as the ones here:

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

But they do appear to both be numbers for Italy as a whole, not just Lombardy for the latter, so that's a mistake of wording. But yeah, Italy gained 60% more cases in 2 days.

Thanks for the explanation. They've gotta fact-check these things. People will use mistakes like that to question all of the numbers, and eventually the entire premise made in the article.

 

[gtcam]

Stop equating this to the flu. This is not the flu. So far it doubles the flu in both deadliness and the rate at which it can spread. It also keeps a person hospitalized for far longer - our hospitals cannot handle this growing exponentially.

It is absurdly selfish to take this lightly because you’re not in the demographic that is at risk.

Firstly, I do not take this or any disease/virus lightly and any ounce of prevention is important.

It is a flu strain - a virus
And this strain has not killed more people than the ordinary flu strains but It may be a higher rate of spread. The head of infectious diseases at John Hopkins today stated that the number of deaths attributed to the regular flu strains in 2020 have and will outnumber those of the corona strain will realize.
Many people who are physically fit can have the symptoms and never step into a hospital
What demographic are you speaking of? Does it discriminate?
Precautions should be taken like any other flu strain but the press and other folks who want to spread the worse case scenarios to fit a message with a mission does not help anything.
Remember when Ebola hit this country? - look at the stats on that and there was minimal upset despite the USA government lack of initial action until it started to get out of hand.
I am not saying that people won't die from this strain and any death is horrible. I have several customers who are doctors and they are concerned but say they are uneasy when any new strain of disease comes from different parts of the world - they all feel that this country as a whole is well prepared and limiting travel into the USA has been key. They say most of cases are basic flu-like and the concern comes when it develops into pneumonia in those with respiratory and heart related pre existing conditions. The same is true with all strains of virus.
If people want to postpone events due to it, fine, keeping folks from congregating may be a quick fix and place those who are nervous at ease to that extent. As with any shared disease, mumps, measles, chicken pox - you name it - the first rule is not touch or come within physical contact. If you feel sick please stay home and convalesce.

 

[BlueMAB]

I'm not "attacking" anyone who says "if you're sick, stay home"...(and I don't disagree with the logic) but the reality is that's a lot easier said than done for most people.

 

[Kathy]

Firstly, I do not take this or any disease/virus lightly and any ounce of prevention is important.

It is a flu strain - a virus
And this strain has not killed more people than the ordinary flu strains but It may be a higher rate of spread. The head of infectious diseases at John Hopkins today stated that the number of deaths attributed to the regular flu strains in 2020 have and will outnumber those of the corona strain will realize.
Many people who are physically fit can have the symptoms and never step into a hospital
What demographic are you speaking of? Does it discriminate?
Precautions should be taken like any other flu strain but the press and other folks who want to spread the worse case scenarios to fit a message with a mission does not help anything.
Remember when Ebola hit this country? - look at the stats on that and there was minimal upset despite the USA government lack of initial action until it started to get out of hand.
I am not saying that people won't die from this strain and any death is horrible. I have several customers who are doctors and they are concerned but say they are uneasy when any new strain of disease comes from different parts of the world - they all feel that this country as a whole is well prepared and limiting travel into the USA has been key. They say most of cases are basic flu-like and the concern comes when it develops into pneumonia in those with respiratory and heart related pre existing conditions. The same is true with all strains of virus.
If people want to postpone events due to it, fine, keeping folks from congregating may be a quick fix and place those who are nervous at ease to that extent. As with any shared disease, mumps, measles, chicken pox - you name it - the first rule is not touch or come within physical contact. If you feel sick please stay home and convalesce.

Ebola isn't ia good comparison- the contagion level for Covid-19 is is much greater than Ebola and higher than SARS or MERS. and yes it is a virus but not an influenza virus. It is more closely related to the virus that causes the common cold.
People can be contagious for 2 weeks before symptoms appear. That length of incubation period cannlead to a huge number of infections before anyone knows it has hit.
Hospitals don't have the staff or equipment to handle the numbers they may see. Italy is having that issue now.

 

[Marat]

Cancel Everything

Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

www.theatlantic.com

I found this to be very helpful in understanding why it's important to take action now.

My company is ready to go with the social distancing scheme, telling us we will take weekly turns working from home/not going into the office.

 

[sledog]

Been using leaves for years in preparation for this.

I remember years back when Johnny Carson joked about a TP shortage on his TV show, and caused a nation-wide run on it. In the meantime, watch out for those 3-pointed shiny green leaves.

 

[Marbles90]

Stop equating this to the flu.

Not equating this virus to the flu, only the public reaction.

According the the CDC site, there are 49 million cases of the flu this year 620,000 hospitalizations and 52,000 deaths. In the United States this year alone. So why are we not reacting to the flu the same way with cancellations and trying to put everyone in a glass box? Even if you say, well, Corona could end up being twice as bad, isn't the flu is still a mass killer and should be looked at the same way? Yet, it is not and the risk group is similar.

And, oh by the way, according to CDC as of noon today there have been 649 cases of Corona in the US. 25 deaths so far. That's six hundred forty-nine out of three hundred million people in the US.

I agree let's be cautious. But the reaction just seems way over the top to me.

 

[casual-yardin]

This is at least 5x more deadly than the flu, there isn't a vaccine and you can walk around with it for several days having no idea, not actually get sick, but still spread it. This isn't hard.

 

[BlueMAB]

Not equating this virus to the flu, only the public reaction.

According the the CDC site, there are 49 million cases of the flu this year 620,000 hospitalizations and 52,000 deaths. In the United States this year alone. So why are we not reacting to the flu the same way with cancellations and trying to put everyone in a glass box? Even if you say, well, Corona could end up being twice as bad, isn't the flu is still a mass killer and should be looked at the same way? Yet, it is not and the risk group is similar.

And, oh by the way, according to CDC as of noon today there have been 649 cases of Corona in the US. 25 deaths so far. That's six hundred forty-nine out of three hundred million people in the US.

I agree let's be cautious. But the reaction just seems way over the top to me.

I don't fully disagree, however, if the reaction isn't sufficient, that number will grow exponentially due to the fact that people will (not could) have it for a week or two without realizing it, causing them to infect others, and so on and so on. This could be far more catastrophic.

As of yesterday I would have agreed with you. Today, as the numbers continue to come in, and the virus continues to spread, social distancing really seems to be the absolute best way to contain the spread and slow the growth. The numbers can go from dozens, to hundreds, to thousands in literally a couple of weeks. And within that 2 weeks, hundreds, if not thousands more may have contracted the virus without even realizing.

 

[BlueMAB]

This is at least 5x more deadly than the flu, there isn't a vaccine and you can walk around with it for several days weeks having no idea, not actually get sick, but still spread it. This isn't hard.

FIFY

 

[Edward Sargent]

At first I didn't think we were overreacting but now it seems pretty clear we are. If you're 65-70 plus and have copd, pulmonary fibrosis, a compromised immune system. You should maybe avoid huge crowds for the next couple months and probably postpone your cruise or flight if you can, other than that carry on as usual and wash your hands more than usual.

People are in an absolute panic and we're heading towards Martial Law in areas. All it's doing is creating fear and disruption.

Panic is the result of a complete failure of our public health system to prepare for this. If our government at least acted like they knew what they were doing we'd be fine!

 

[casual-yardin]

Not equating this virus to the flu, only the public reaction.

According the the CDC site, there are 49 million cases of the flu this year 620,000 hospitalizations and 52,000 deaths. In the United States this year alone. So why are we not reacting to the flu the same way with cancellations and trying to put everyone in a glass box? Even if you say, well, Corona could end up being twice as bad, isn't the flu is still a mass killer and should be looked at the same way? Yet, it is not and the risk group is similar.

And, oh by the way, according to CDC as of noon today there have been 649 cases of Corona in the US. 25 deaths so far. That's six hundred forty-nine out of three hundred million people in the US.

I agree let's be cautious. But the reaction just seems way over the top to me.

I don't think those numbers are accurate

 

[krinklecut]

And, oh by the way, according to CDC as of noon today there have been 649 cases of Corona in the US. 25 deaths so far. That's six hundred forty-nine out of three hundred million people in the US.

Those numbers aren't very inaccurate, as we're not testing. Most health orgs are putting the infected number upwards of 10,000 as of today.

 

[auror]

Not equating this virus to the flu, only the public reaction.

According the the CDC site, there are 49 million cases of the flu this year 620,000 hospitalizations and 52,000 deaths. In the United States this year alone. So why are we not reacting to the flu the same way with cancellations and trying to put everyone in a glass box? Even if you say, well, Corona could end up being twice as bad, isn't the flu is still a mass killer and should be looked at the same way? Yet, it is not and the risk group is similar.

And, oh by the way, according to CDC as of noon today there have been 649 cases of Corona in the US. 25 deaths so far. That's six hundred forty-nine out of three hundred million people in the US.

I agree let's be cautious. But the reaction just seems way over the top to me.

Because the answer is in your numbers. The flu has a 0.1% death rate. The most conservative estimates (which attempt to account for the lack of better testing) put this virus as 10x more deadly and initial studies have shown more contagious. As has been pointed out, China's death rate has been 20-30x more and Italy is currently experiencing a 60x more deadly scenario. The true rate is probably in the 15-25x more deadly range.

The most proactive country who limited a decent sized outbreak and kept it to only a small sect of their population has been South Korea. They successfully kept it to mostly one small heavily watched community which skewed younger and female, and they tested extensively in order to ensure that was the case. Their date rate was only 0.7%, so still 7x more deadly than the average flu in a pretty much absolute best case scenario of intense zeal.

 

[tykurez]

Not equating this virus to the flu, only the public reaction.

According the the CDC site, there are 49 million cases of the flu this year 620,000 hospitalizations and 52,000 deaths. In the United States this year alone. So why are we not reacting to the flu the same way with cancellations and trying to put everyone in a glass box? Even if you say, well, Corona could end up being twice as bad, isn't the flu is still a mass killer and should be looked at the same way? Yet, it is not and the risk group is similar.

And, oh by the way, according to CDC as of noon today there have been 649 cases of Corona in the US. 25 deaths so far. That's six hundred forty-nine out of three hundred million people in the US.

I agree let's be cautious. But the reaction just seems way over the top to me.

The fact you took the time to spell out 649 but not figure out that the death rate is astoundingly different between the two is :chef’s kiss:

 

[djct1999]

It's possible Yale decides they will not play in the NCAA tournament...

they should otherwise this all seems hypocritical.

 

[Marbles90]

I don't think those numbers are accurate

Those numbers aren't very inaccurate, as we're not testing. Most health orgs are putting the infected number upwards of 10,000 as of today.

Because the answer is in your numbers. The flu has a 0.1% death rate. The most conservative estimates (which attempt to account for the lack of better testing) put this virus as 10x more deadly and initial studies have shown more contagious. As has been pointed out, China's death rate has been 20-30x more and Italy is currently experiencing a 60x more deadly scenario. The true rate is probably in the 15-25x more deadly range.

The most proactive country who limited a decent sized outbreak and kept it to only a small sect of their population has been South Korea. They successfully kept it to mostly one small quarantined community which skewed younger and female, and they tested extensively in order to ensure that was the case. Their date rate was only 0.7%, so still 7x more deadly than the average flu in a pretty much absolute best case scenario of intense zeal.

The fact you took the time to spell out 649 but not figure out that the death rate is astoundingly different between the two is :chef’s kiss:

Numbers came directly from CDC site. What news media site should we be looking at? The media is reporting 10's of thousand when the CDC is saying 647? I wonder why people are panicking.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov