It's about to get real ugly

[brasssbonanzaa]

Which is why all we can do is delay that decision until it can't be delayed anymore. Unfortunately, every year is another year closer to that decision.

You made the point a lot better than I did. There's not an indeterminate amount of time that we can continue to wait around for a P5 spot to open up, much less be qualified to take it. What exactly are we waiting for to occur that'll open a P5 spot? ND to go full ACC, B1G/ACC/B12 reup their TV contracts. The ND side is unlikely to occur and the TV reups aren't likely to lead to increased revenue due to ESPN and cable companies bleeding profits.

UConn's case for P5 entry is predicated on things that happened in the 90s, 2000s, and first half of this decade. As those fade further into history, the brand of UConn further becomes that of a mid-major school. We can excel in the AAC, but the ceiling there is far below that of the Big East, not to mention UConn fans have spoken loud and clear at the box office that they aren't interested in going to see these teams.

 

[intlzncster]

You made the point a lot better than I did. There's not an indeterminate amount of time that we can continue to wait around for a P5 spot to open up, much less be qualified to take it. What exactly are we waiting for to occur that'll open a P5 spot? ND to go full ACC, B1G/ACC/B12 reup their TV contracts. The ND side is unlikely to occur and the TV reups aren't likely to lead to increased revenue due to ESPN and cable companies bleeding profits.

UConn's case for P5 entry is predicated on things that happened in the 90s, 2000s, and first half of this decade. As those fade further into history, the brand of UConn further becomes that of a mid-major school. We can excel in the AAC, but the ceiling there is far below that of the Big East, not to mention UConn fans have spoken loud and clear at the box office that they aren't interested in going to see these teams.

You need to wait for the next round of TV contracts. 2022-2024. That's how long you got to hold on for. After that, do whatever you want. It's not about them getting more money, it's about structure of the conference and TV sets. They'll likely try to maximize that. Which means potential shakeups.

The NBE is doing ok right now, results-wise, but have you seen their TV ratings? Their next TV contract will likely drop as a result, on top of the overall contract market shrinking. As the P5 breaks off, the funding difference is going to be massive, especially for small private schools. Long term, the conference will likely fizzle. The NBE is on notice.

Once the P5 split occurs, nothing really matters. Either you in, or your out....and likely @#$ked.

 

[The Viking]

The B1G's contract opens up in 2022 I believe, that will likely be the final realignment for another 10-15 years. No one knows how many schools that may affect and what kind of trickle down affect that would have on us - either being an initial target by the B1G (highly doubtful obviously) or taking a seat from another conference with holes (Big 12 remnants) - or taking a seat in the ACC due to them reacting to the B1G (doubtful but who the hell knows).

We very well could be in the Big East in 5 years - I'd probably bet on that if I had extra money - but we've gotten this far, we're going to probably keep our chips in the pot for 5 more years.

 

[Danzz]

Dave doesn’t fire someone without a replacement waiting in the wings. That’s how he operates.

Hope you are right but pretty hard to keep the interview process under wraps for long. He would have had to make the decision to fire KO some time ago if he already has the next coach.

 

[The Viking]

The NBE is doing ok right now, results-wise, but have you seen their TV ratings? Their next TV contract will likely drop as a result, on top of the overall contract market shrinking. As the P5 breaks off, the funding difference is going to be massive, especially for small private schools. Long term, the conference will likely fizzle. The NBE is on notice.

Once the P5 split occurs, nothing really matters. Either you in, or your out....and likely @#$ked.

This is what I don't get about the whole argument about how the Big East is doomed to fail. They aren't making that much money NOW while the P5 schools are making a ton. What is going to really change in terms of the gulf between haves and have nots with the next deal? Even if the BE deal goes down in value it can't drop that much because it currently isn't that much. The Big East is situated in a basketball hotbed and calls MSG it's home. Kids WANT to play in the Big East. The Big East will survive. And if we end up joining it again it will continue to elevate. They have 5 teams in the top 27 KenPom. The ACC has 4.

The only way the BE falls off a cliff is if the P5 end up doing their own march madness and the outcry from the public would be massive if they tried that. Part of the reason people watch these tourneys is for the cinderella moments and the Big East conference teams or Gonzagas or lesser teams taking on the heavy weights and making runs. The passion for college hoops would drop quite a big in March if they tried that.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

This is what I don't get about the whole argument about how the Big East is doomed to fail. They aren't making that much money NOW while the P5 schools are making a ton. What is going to really change in terms of the gulf between haves and have nots with the next deal? Even if the BE deal goes down in value it can't drop that much because it currently isn't that much. The Big East is situated in a basketball hotbed and calls MSG it's home. Kids WANT to play in the Big East. The Big East will survive. And if we end up joining it again it will continue to elevate. They have 5 teams in the top 27 KenPom. The ACC has 4.

The only way the BE falls off a cliff is if the P5 end up doing their own march madness and the outcry from the public would be massive if they tried that. Part of the reason people watch these tourneys is for the cinderella moments and the Big East conference teams or Gonzagas or lesser teams taking on the heavy weights and making runs. The passion for college hoops would drop quite a big in March if they tried that.

The Big East's ratings are also partially the result of the crappy TV deal they signed when the new league was formed and everyone thought it'd be a subpar league. That's of course not panned out and the league is in a position to negotiate a FAR better deal than the one they have now. UConn's addition would only bolster that claim, so long as we don't continue to slide further into irrelevance.

 

[ctchamps]

UConn had to make the move. Can’t get excited just because a change is happening.

Next year has a high probability of being worse than this year even with a decent hire. What players can any coach bring in at this late date of the recruiting cycle given the likelihood of defections?

That event would put most of the coaches named by the BY in a hole for years. Short of Donovan (my preference) or the instant comer (absolutely no; I’d want the program to die before that hire) I don’t see cause for optimism.

 

[Padutch5]

With Ollie out, Akinjo already de-committing, and the rumors of a mass exudes, it's about to get real ugly.

The new NCAA transfer rule that is expected to pass will allow players to transfer and play right away if their coach leave is going to make this real interesting.

What would stop Gilbert, Wilson, Adams, Vital, and any of the other players from transferring to a school that they have a better opportunity right away?

Nothing. However, the conventional wisdom was that we would probably lose 4 to 6 players if Ollie stayed.

 

[captainron2]

it's not. It's very poorly positioned for the future of college athletics. It's small-time, and not a good landing spot for a University with higher aspirations.

It is if your focus is 100% men’s basketball. Oh, and you don’t need to take as much money in if you aren’t funding 100 scholarships for football.

 

[gtcam]

it's not. It's very poorly positioned for the future of college athletics. It's small-time, and not a good landing spot for a University with higher aspirations.

You are so wrong
For any school that isn't in that all for football mode it is a great basketball conference and there will always be a niche for those programs.
Not every school can or wants to field a football team or a program that can play P5 level

 

[uconnfan68]

A move back to the BE only happens if we are left in the dark after the P5 split.

And only then if they invite us. We just can’t show up.

 

[gtcam]

The AAC is actually a very good football league and will be very tough to win in on a consistent basis and winning is what UConn football needs to do to get out of this league for the sake of basketball and soccer - two programs that have been successful but suffer the most with this league affiliation.
IF the P5 set-up remains and IF teams like Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati produce better football than UConn there will be more reason to be very concerned.

 

[Huskies2324]

I hope you all have warm parkas...bundle up as we are going to spend the next three seasons in basketball Siberia during this rebuild.