ITM, Hawk continues to fly high

[Beowulf]

I understand wanting to give the time to guys who have been there, but Hawkins has scored 25+ three times this season. Daniels’ season (and career) high is 17. When he was getting minutes, he was also up there as one of the better rebounders on the team.

He was playing his way onto the rookie 1st team while Dyson and Naji are trying to play their way into being decent bench pieces. Small sample size but the levels seem very different right now

He’s not a plus defender, but neither is half of the Pelicans roster. They’re very average on defense. Are your bench guards going to move the needle defensively when half of your starting 5 can’t, or doesn’t want to, defend?

The question for me is what else do you want Hawkins to do? He was drafted as offensive sharpshooting firepower and he delivered. If there’s nothing else he can do and he’s just stuck behind the guys ahead of him (which seems like the case), why use a lottery pick on him?

I get what you’re saying but I’m also just assuming at this point a lot of people here don’t understand how playing time works for rookies and late lottery picks. Go back and see guys drafted from like 11-15….do any of them play 82 games at 25 minutes a night?

Hawkins didn’t get vanquished to a different country. Hes just temporarily out of the rotation. It happens. It’s happened to better rookies on better teams. Guys like haliburton, Devin vassell….same thing. And now they signed max extensions. Was their development stunted because they only played 59 games as rookies?

It’s a long season and the pelicans have a lot of guys and higher expectations than being .500. Their first rotation tweak was always gonna be a rookie shooting under 40% rather. It’s okay. Hawkins will be fine, he’ll be fine when his number is inevitably called again.

 

[Beowulf]

Let's do some math here and discover how little you've bothered to cover your tracks.

1) 29% of Hawkins's shots have been contested (defender within 0-4 feet) per the NBA shooting dashboard. Last season, 35% of 3s were contested in that range across the league.

2) He's shooting just under 35% on contested 3s this season, which is well above the league average of 29%.

3) The average shooting guard is hitting 36.8% of 3s on 3.9 attempts. Jordan is hitting 36.6% on 6.7 attempts per.

So... he's taking a few less contested shots compared to his overall # of shots taken than most, hitting a substantial percent more when he does take contested shots, and is hitting a league average % from deep for guards despite taking close to 3 more attempts per game.

Explain to me what I was missing? It's startlingly obvious just how much the Pels are screwing this up.

4) He's sat more than 1 game, and his coach has also indicated he's out of the regular rotation.

Good effort, though!

He is taking 2 contested threes per game total. And shooting them well! But over 22 games….that means he’s made TWO total contested threes more than a league average shooting guard would have. Which is great! Hes clearly a good shooter. But that doesn’t make him unbenchable. He’s going through the exact same process that virtually every player ever picked in this spot has gone through. It’s the nba, it happens. You guys are acting like he got blacklisted

 

[husky429]

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I was wrong. Silly me. @husky429 you really do know your stuff, and I am a complete and utter clownshow.

FIFY

 

[husky429]

Over half his attempts per game (5.6 of 10.1) are considered “open” or “wide open”. And take a guess how his percentage compares to the league in all regards. I’ll give you a hint…..

You gonna admit this was a blatantly wrong post? Because you implied his % was worse on contested shots, when that blatantly false. Do you feel silly yet?

Let's recap:

• His shooting % compared to other guards on all 3s taken is about the same, and he's taking quite a few more shots.
• His shooting % on contested shots is higher than league average, on less than 1 attempt fewer than average per game. I agree that the difference is negligible (per your last post), but YOU are the one who brought up his contested shooting %, big guy.

So what is it? What's the "hint?"

Is it that his % is equal or better "in all regards" or were you just making things up and hoping I wouldn't check? Do you even know me?

Try to not change the subject when you respond this time. It's okay to admit you were wrong, big fella. I'm not talking about whether or not he should be benched--I don't care. I'm talking about you overtly lying about stats. Are you prepared to address that?

 

[Waquoit]

View attachment 94023

He is taking 2 contested threes per game total. And shooting them well! But over 22 games….that means he’s made TWO total contested threes more than a league average shooting guard would have. Which is great! Hes clearly a good shooter. But that doesn’t make him unbenchable. He’s going through the exact same process that virtually every player ever picked in this spot has gone through. It’s the nba, it happens. You guys are acting like he got blacklisted

Great, just what we need here, another self-proclaimed voice of reason.

 

[Beowulf]

Remember when you said this, and both you and I showed that he 1) takes a negligible amount of fewer contested shots, 2) makes a higher % of them than league average?

You gonna admit this was a stupid post to make?

Clown. Show.

he's made 2 total contested threes more than a regular shooting guard would have, i was wrong. he's shooting open shots (over half of his attempts per game) at a reggie jackson clip. open shots around 38ish% which seems like it's very slightly below league average. sooooo it looks like he 1. doesn't take very many contested threes and 2. overall as a shooter right now is average? for a guy who that's his thing? he's made 2 threes more than an average guy would have across 22 games this year and that means he can't ever ever be out of the rotation?

Did kansas message board have this big of a meltdown for Agbaji last year? I'm just saying no one should have expected him to play 82 games this year.

 

[auror]

I get what you’re saying but I’m also just assuming at this point a lot of people here don’t understand how playing time works for rookies and late lottery picks. Go back and see guys drafted from like 11-15….do any of them play 82 games at 25 minutes a night?

Hawkins didn’t get vanquished to a different country. Hes just temporarily out of the rotation. It happens. It’s happened to better rookies on better teams. Guys like haliburton, Devin vassell….same thing. And now they signed max extensions. Was their development stunted because they only played 59 games as rookies?

It’s a long season and the pelicans have a lot of guys and higher expectations than being .500. Their first rotation tweak was always gonna be a rookie shooting under 40% rather. It’s okay. Hawkins will be fine, he’ll be fine when his number is inevitably called again.

Haliburton was never out of his team's rotation even as a rookie.

Vassell was, yes.

 

[caw]

Yeah I would keep him of the two but they seem to love Dyson's potential. They are a team falling for suck cost right now.

Can’t edit but that’s supposed to “sunk cost” but my subconscious/auto correct changed it.

 

[Excalibur]

i dont mean breather in the literal sense. i mean it's not the worst thing in the world for a rookie to have a reduced role every now and then. i love hawk, think he should be playing, and think he will be in the rotation for their eventual playin/playoff series. but this is a professional team with playoff aspirations, not the new orleans jordan hawkins showcase. you can't design every single game's rotations around your 14th overall pick.

they are better (by a lot) when he's off the court: Jordan Hawkins 2023-24 On Off Stats | Basketball-Reference.com

he's gonna get plenty of chances. this is not the end of the world. this team is in a win-now era because zion is a ticking time bomb. im sure they'll push some chips in to consolidate at some point, which will open up more minutes for hawk. but right now this is nothing.

Those on-off stats are pretty useless, given the number of "on" minutes he's played in games where they were missing either Zion, Ingram, or McCollum (or more than one of those).

 

[husky429]

he's made 2 total contested threes more than a regular shooting guard would have, i was wrong. he's shooting open shots (over half of his attempts per game) at a reggie jackson clip. open shots around 38ish% which seems like it's very slightly below league average. sooooo it looks like he 1. doesn't take very many contested threes and 2. overall as a shooter right now is average? for a guy who that's his thing? he's made 2 threes more than an average guy would have across 22 games this year and that means he can't ever ever be out of the rotation?

Did kansas message board have this big of a meltdown for Agbaji last year? I'm just saying no one should have expected him to play 82 games this year.

I'm proud of you for admitting you were wrong. It's a first step!

But more importantly: Why did you choose to lie? It's a weird thing to do. Do you just want attention? Did you expect me not to check your #s to see if you were BS'ing us? Do you even know me?

1) He's taking essentially a league-average # of contested 3s for a player in the rotation. He's a few short.

2) He's not an average shooter. He's at an average PERCENTAGE for guards--but that's not the whole story. He's also shooting close to double the attempts as your average in-rotation NBA player. Maybe we define good shooter differently.

Somehow, with both #1 and #2 you have managed to STILL be misleading.

 

[Beowulf]

I'm proud of you for admitting you were wrong. It's a first step!

But more importantly: Why did you choose to lie? It's a weird thing to do. Do you just want attention? Did you expect me not to check your #s to see if you were BS'ing us? Do you even know me?

1) He's taking essentially a league-average # of contested 3s for a player in the rotation. He's a few short.

2) He's not an average shooter. He's at an average PERCENTAGE for guards--but that's not the whole story. He's also shooting close to double the attempts as your average in-rotation NBA player. Maybe we define good shooter differently.

Somehow, with both #1 and #2 you have managed to STILL be misleading.

i don't think this is that deep man. you said he was taking 7 high degree of difficulty shots a game. i said no he wasn't. i laid out how he's shooting okay. i don't think any of that was misleading or misrepresented. he's shooting okay. i'm just an nba fan who very closely follows the league and knows that rookies get benched sometimes. it's a long season and they have a deep roster and expectations. it's december. hawk is fine. i've been very clear that i think he's good, should be playing, and will be playing again soon. you guys are acting there is some sort of crusade against him. i'm just saying this is normal, and somewhat even justifiable given the other pieces they have on this team. i get he went to uconn and won us a championship and we love him, but 14th overall picks aren't given the keys to the castle by dec 13th. it'll all work out in the end. him getting benched december of his rookie year means nothing.

willie green's quote on the situation makes perfect sense. it's a long season. they have a lot of guys. guys come in and out of the rotation. he'll be fine.

 

[husky429]

i don't think this is that deep man. you said he was taking 7 high degree of difficulty shots a game. i said no he wasn't. i laid out how he's shooting okay. i don't think any of that was misleading or misrepresented. he's shooting okay.

I give up. This has to be a troll. No one is this stupid.

 

[Beowulf]

the best part about this is gonna be when he is reinserted in the lineup and plays well and someone gonna be like SEEEEE TOLD YOU as if that's not what i've been saying this entire time

 

[husky429]

the best part about this is gonna be when he is reinserted in the lineup and plays well and someone gonna be like SEEEEE TOLD YOU as if that's not what i've been saying this entire time

This guy needs a conservator

 

[Waquoit]

the best part about this is gonna be when he is reinserted in the lineup and plays well and someone gonna be like SEEEEE TOLD YOU as if that's not what i've been saying this entire time

No they won't. We already forgot your name.

 

[HuskyFich]

He's not being benched because of his shooting...
He needs to shore up his defense. We said the same thing his Frosh year here. He's going to blossom into an unbelievable player once he strengthens up and gets a full offseason of practice.

Hawk has the mindset to fix his flaws. He won't sign his mega deal with NOLA anyways lol.

 

[Beowulf]

He's not being benched because of his shooting...
He needs to shore up his defense. We said the same thing his Frosh year here. He's going to blossom into an unbelievable player once he strengthens up and gets a full offseason of practice.

Hawk has the mindset to fix his flaws. He won't sign his mega deal with NOLA anyways lol.
View attachment 94026

yeah i think this started out by saying his shooting wasn't enough to offset the other stuff before it divulged into a pissing contest on percentages.

 

[BIIIG]

Na @Beowulf def right guys, there's no way Hawkins could ever get playing time over the great Naji Marshall or Dyson Daniels...give me a break

 

[ThabeetDown]

Didn't want Hawk to go to NOLA for this reason -- bad franchises stay bad for a reason, and it's examples like this. I respect, David Griffin as a GM which is why I was hopeful for Hawk in NOLA, but at the end of the day you can only spray so much perfume on a pile of poop.

Same reason why I didn't want Bouk going to Charlotte, granted Bouk has since brought a lot of his problems onto himself. But if he was in a better situation from the start, he'd probably be more likely to stay on the straight and narrow.

I feel bad for any rookie going to DET, CHA, NOLA, CHI, WAS, etc. It's hard enough to have an NBA career. Starting it with one of these franchises makes it nearly impossible unless you're extra special. The only team in recent memory to right the ship it appears was SAC (although it took them like what, 15 years?).

 

[ToolzieFan]

 

[auror]

Zion resting, so he got in to start the 2nd Q.

 

[Malamute]

Rolling post 199 forward from Palatine. Fantastic breakdown of Hawkins. Can watch over and over. No surprise stats appear to show below average closely guarded shots attempts / makes, who can keep up with his movement? Kind of a misleading stat. How does a team put this on ice?

 

[REB1094]

Woof. Rough game besides the monster dunk. Has to make his shots in his limited time, since it appears he’s only going to get limited time

 

[Excalibur]

Woof. Rough game besides the monster dunk. Has to make his shots in his limited time, since it appears he’s only going to get limited time

Yet he was +15 in a game they won by 20, which shows you how worthless that stat is.

 

[ibleedhuskyblue]

Yet he was +15 in a game they won by 20, which shows you how worthless that stat is.

Players know who Hawk is and what he does. His "gravity" is nearly as important as his actual statistics right now when it comes to +/- and winning/losing.
Having him on the court takes one eye of every defender on his side of the court away from their primary defensive assignment. It opens up driving lanes for Zion and Ingram.