Is UConn's Roster A Forward Short?

[JoePgh]

I think that the problem that you have identified is undeniable, and (given what happened with Boykin and the recruiting whiffs on front court players) it falls under the general heading of "Compost Happens".

So assuming that the roster we see is the roster that UConn will have in November (i.e., no manna from Azura), what does that mean? Undeniably it means that UConn won't be as intimidating in the paint as it has been basically since the beginning of the Tina Charles era (which was the fall of 2006). And therefore UConn won't be as good a team. They won't be nearly as good next year as they have been in the recent past.

But what does THAT mean? Instead of beating good opponents (like in the Final Four) by 30 points and very good opponents playing their A game by 10 points, it means that they will probably beat good opponents by 10 to 15 points and lose some games to very good opponents playing their A game. That does not rule out a National Championship (although it would be a close call and require some tactical wins in close games), and it does not make a Final Four unlikely -- but it makes it LESS likely.

And I agree with those who say that Lou will play in the paint on defense -- not so much on offense. She will not be as good as Stewart, Tuck, Stokes, or Dolson, but she will be a B or B+ defensive forward. And that will be enough (with her versatile inside-out offense and the other talent on the team) to win 30 or more games. But probably not good enough to win a 5th NC in a row.

 

[CocoHusky]

Disagree with the last point. The comment about Lou is the same that could have been made about Bre during her freshman year, and look how that turned out. I'm in no way suggesting that Lou is going to become Stewart, but they are pretty similar at this point in their careers. AND I'm pretty sure that KLS will spend more time under the basket next year, something Geno has had her doing increasingly this year. But a smarter guy than we are gets to decide these things.

Freshmen Breanna Stewart had a significant different skill set than KLS. Specifically Breanna had a back to the basket game where she could use a combination of jump hooks and finish with either hand or simply elevate over most defenders. KLS does not have this skill set, athleticism, or the strength to execute a back to the basket post isolation game where as Breanna Stewart might have been the best to ever do it in WCBB history. As far as Geno calling more plays for KLS under the basket this is also not correct. KLS post isolation touches this year= 2 Total. Freshmen Breanna stewart was at least 3 times PER GAME. This idea of taking your tallest girl and putting her closer to the basket (because she is your tallest girl) is very antiquated by big guards and stretch 4s.

 

[HuskyNan]

And I agree with those who say that Lou will play in the paint on defense -- not so much on offense.

I would have said the reverse - Lou is willing to go to the basket or to shoot the pull up jumper from midrange but she doesn't have a forward's mentality when it comes to post defense. It's a thought process, not just a matter of height. UConn has had some undersized forwards that did have that mentality such as Gabby, Jamelle, Barb Turner and Ashley Battle but Lou doesn't IMO.

Lou has 124 rebounds (19 offensive) and 6 blocks in 870 total minutes this season
Gabby has 213 rebounds (75 offensive) and 13 blocks in 708 total minutes

It's just a different approach.

 

[BobbyJ]

Disagree with the last point. The comment about Lou is the same that could have been made about Bre during her freshman year, and look how that turned out. I'm in no way suggesting that Lou is going to become Stewart, but they are pretty similar at this point in their careers. AND I'm pretty sure that KLS will spend more time under the basket next year, something Geno has had her doing increasingly this year. But a smarter guy than we are gets to decide these things.

IMO, there is one noticeable difference between Stewart and Samuelson as freshmen. Although they both needed a lot of strength work, Stewart was more prepared from playing a lot in the post to drive and shoot through contact. Because she spent most of her HS and summer ball time on the perimeter, Samuelson has just not learned to handle the physical side of the game. Part of it is strength and experience but it's also a mind set that some have and some don't. Even though she wasn't very strong, Stewart just had it. I feel that Samuelson needs to develop this to elevate her game and be able to play well on the interior.

 

[UcMiami]

I know Muffet has said that she thinks 12 is the perfect number for her. ND has been in the 11-13 range for the last few years depending on transfers, redshirts, etc. But she aims for 12.

Same with Geno - more and coaching and development time becomes an issue, less and a few injuries can put real strain on the roster if no where else then in practice.

 

[SportsPageMike]

I had mentioned this before that we need post players. There will not be any on the bench next season. Butler really needs to step up her game and her footwork. Would like to see a fifth year senior come in at least just to be a role player. Tuck leaving early will hurt but you can't blame her at all. Gabby and Collier will be First or Second Team All-Americans by the time they graduate. Love both of their game.

 

[rvwsleep]

Lou might have been the ultimate finesse player coming out of high school.
If she was physically stronger, I think her mental approach would be different when it comes to post defense and rebounding. Hopefully, with the broken foot, she will be spending time this off season in the weight/exercising room building up her strength. She doesn't have the body type to turn into Tuck or Gabby but that isn't necessary. All that is needed is a stronger Lou.
Collier would also benefit greatly with strength training, IMO.

 

[HuskyNan]

IMO, there is one noticeable difference between Stewart and Samuelson as freshmen. Although they both needed a lot of strength work, Stewart was more prepared from playing a lot in the post to drive and shoot through contact. Because she spent most of her HS and summer ball time on the perimeter, Samuelson has just not learned to handle the physical side of the game. Part of it is strength and experience but it's also a mind set that some have and some don't. Even though she wasn't very strong, Stewart just had it. I feel that Samuelson needs to develop this to elevate her game and be able to play well on the interior.

LOL, great minds...

 

[CocoHusky]

I had mentioned this before that we need post players. There will not be any on the bench next season. Butler really needs to step up her game and her footwork. Would like to see a fifth year senior come in at least just to be a role player. Tuck leaving early will hurt but you can't blame her at all. Gabby and Collier will be First or Second Team All-Americans by the time they graduate. Love both of their game.

Irwin can play the post. There are still some JUCO or international post available that can fill that role.

 

[HuskyNan]

Similarities in frames here... IMO, putting Annie in the wrong position late in her learning process messed with her game too much.

Interesting thing about Lou that I never noticed before - almost all of the pictures I found of her dribbling shows her using her left hand.

 

[JoePgh]

I would have said the reverse - Lou is willing to go to the basket or to shoot the pull up jumper from midrange but she doesn't have a forward's mentality when it comes to post defense. It's a thought process, not just a matter of height. UConn has had some undersized forwards that did have that mentality such as Gabby, Jamelle, Barb Turner and Ashley Battle but Lou doesn't IMO.

Lou has 124 rebounds (19 offensive) and 6 blocks in 870 total minutes this season
Gabby has 213 rebounds (75 offensive) and 13 blocks in 708 total minutes

It's just a different approach.

I think that comparison between Lou and Gabby doesn't take account of the difference in their roles on the team this year. Gabby thought she was going to be a guard when she came to UConn, and was basically told to play in the front court -- and she has learned to like it. Lou thought of herself as a guard and would certainly be more comfortable there -- and that role was available to her while Stewie and Morgan were on the roster. But next year Geno won't have that luxury, and (absent roster surprises or amazing development by Natalie or Kyla) Lou will have to recognize that on defense, the team needs her in the paint. I think she will embrace that as an opportunity to become a more versatile and useful player than she already is.

In next year's Baylor game, how will Geno defend Brown or Mompremier? I predict it will basically be the same story as it was with Griner, or as it was this year with Boyette and Hamblin. He will have his biggest player behind her in a blocking position, and bring a double by a smaller forward or a guard to make the entry pass difficult and make a dribble impossible once the opposing big gets the ball. That won't shut down Brown or Mompremier if they are playing well, but it should hold them below their average.

I predict that the player in back of the opposing big will be Lou, and the player in front will be either Gabby or Kia.

 

[rvwsleep]

RE: NAN finding mostly photos of Lou dribbling with her left hand.

A lot of right handed shooters prefer to dribble with their left hand, particularly right before they shoot their jumper. Some players find that it's easier to square up for the shot when dribbling with the off hand.

 

[CocoHusky]

I think that comparison between Lou and Gabby doesn't take account of the difference in their roles on the team this year. Gabby thought she was going to be a guard when she came to UConn, and was basically told to play in the front court -- and she has learned to like it. Lou thought of herself as a guard and would certainly be more comfortable there -- and that role was available to her while Stewie and Morgan were on the roster. But next year Geno won't have that luxury, and (absent roster surprises or amazing development by Natalie or Kyla) Lou will have to recognize that on defense, the team needs her in the paint. I think she will embrace that as an opportunity to become a more versatile and useful player than she already is.

In next year's Baylor game, how will Geno defend Brown or Mompremier? I predict it will basically be the same story as it was with Griner, or as it was this year with Boyette and Hamblin. He will have his biggest player behind her in a blocking position, and bring a double by a smaller forward or a guard to make the entry pass difficult and make a dribble impossible once the opposing big gets the ball. That won't shut down Brown or Mompremier if they are playing well, but it should hold them below their average.

I predict that the player in back of the opposing big will be Lou, and the player in front will be either Gabby or Kia.

Griner was a different beast. I have not seen anything in Brown or Mompremier to make them command any more attention that Boyette and Hamblin got - single coverage.

 

[JordyG]

Geno tried to play Ann Strother as a forward and that did not work out well.

Good point. It's silly to see Lou getting big minutes at the 5. Her body type and mental make up just doesn't jibe with that position. She will see minutes at the 3 and 4 and she will see the 5 during switches, unless Geno decides to go 2-3, triangle and 2 or box and 1 all next year. Which is doubtful. Probably man to man after misses, zone (some) after made baskets. Again, its her versatility that Geno will take advantage of. Improving her upper body strength will go a long way in deciding how much Geno uses her defensively in the paint and offensively on the block.

 

[Blue Huskie]

Shortage of Forwards - not really. Just not height. And yes the overall bench will be a bit short because of inexperience but the numbers should be the same barring injury/transfer.
Maybe they might try to add another walk-on too.

 

[Blue Huskie]

I realize I'm confused most of the time, but I've become MORE confused than usual.
UCONN has just lost 2 bigs, both AA's Stewart at 6'4" Forward and Tuck at 6'2" Foward/Center. Not only are there openings at Forward/Center but it's with the best team in WCBB with the best coaching staff in Div. I. Lauren Cox #1 HS player at /C signs with Baylor who has 3 very talented bigs that are 2 freshmen , and a sophomore that are all 6'4" or taller! Limiting Cox's PT to about 12 to 18 minutes a game.
Now A. Stevens a 6'6" very talented sophomore is transferring from Duke and rumor has it she might be interested in SoCar where they have 3 very talented freshmen and sophomores, all 6'4" or taller. An her playing time will be cut also.
What are these and other big girls afraid of, and I know some say they want to stay close to home, but when a kid goes to college he/she is making the break and they basically won't go home again to stay, they'll graduate get a regular job or go on to play pro BB either in the WNBA or for a Foreign team. They've become an adult and cut the strings.
IMHO this is an easy out, they'll still have individual glory, their WCBB team might have a slim chance to win a National Title, and they can coast through 4 years but they don't have to give everything they've got every second of every practice and every game!
I also know I'll be condemned here on the BONEYARD because I'm being nasty to 18 & 19 year old girls, but it's an easy choice really, there are openings at UCONN for talented Forwards & Centers and there's not many players with guts to sign on for the hardest but best experience they'll have in WBB!

But you're assuming we WANT all these players and that's not always the case. We wanted Cox but she's staying close to home. Nothing odd about that. We'll be fine. Will we be undefeated and roll to the NC game? Probably not but we will be fine. I'm OK with missing a National Championship next year after winning 4 straight

 

[Charliebball]

Shortage of Forwards - not really. Just not height. And yes the overall bench will be a bit short because of inexperience but the numbers should be the same barring injury/transfer.
Maybe they might try to add another walk-on too.

Yes, they need another walk on so that T. Lawler has a compatriot..............could she be 6'5" please.............

 

[Kibitzer]

I know Geno doesn't worry about the traditional guard/forward/center roles.

51 Natilie Butler 6-5 Center
12 Saniya Chong 5-8 Guard
24 Napheesa Collier 6-1 Forward
22 Courtney Ekmark 6-0 Guard
20 Tierney Lawlor 5-7 Guard
11 Kia Nurse 6-0 Guard
33 Katie Lou Samuelson 6-3 Guard/Forward
15 Gabby Williams 5-11 Guard
Kyla Irwin 6-2 forward/center
Crystal Dangerfield 5-6 Guard
Molly Bent 5-10- Guard

During practices, Geno normally sends the front court players to work with Marisa and the back court ones to Shea. (As Nan pointed out, Ann was misplaced with the "bigs," as might Lou.)

I never liked the strict adherence to the 1-2-3-4-5 designation and recently spotted a system I like(by a Globe writer not named Dan). Let me give it a try:

Ball Handlers: Kia, Crystal, Saniya, Molly, Tierney.
Wings: Lou, Courtney.
Swings: Gabby, Pheesa.
Bigs: Nat, Kyla.
​

Using this model, it becomes apparent that the two "swings" must spend a lot of PT with the "bigs," at least on offense. And Nat and Kyla better be in tip-top shape!

 

[huskyd]

Let's declare that all of this is speculation: no one knows how the future will play out. But, among points not made, consider these. Stewart as a freshman was bounced around pretty hard, sometimes into the cheap seats. She never got bigger and stronger in the sense that her physical make-up made her more effective in the post as her career advanced. Recent studies of the physical Bre indicate that she has an extremely FLEXIBLE body, which enables her to contort herself in ways not available to every player. She became adept at avoiding unnecessary contact, as a bullfighter avoids the bull (and Bre avoided fouling). Her long arms and jumping ability along with superb coordination and anticipation contributed immeasurably to her success. I am not saying that Lou has all of Bre's assets or particular experiences coming in, but I am saying that she should experience a growth trajectory if she is, indeed, a superior player. The bodies of the two are similar; why not anticipate similar upsides?

 

[Carnac]

It is not a "potential shortage of forwards" it is the reality of the roster for next year. Many of us have been saying this for a while now and don't assume this is a 1 year problem either. UCONN needs to sign a contributing PF/C soon.

Coco - I can SEE, there's nothing wrong with your "depth" perception.

 

[huskyd]

Geno tried to play Ann Strother as a forward and that did not work out well.

But Geno also tried to use Gabby as a forward: how did that work out? "Necessity is the mother of invention."

 

[Carnac]

I keep hearing that, but Geno went after multiple"bigs" that we didn't get. So logically even Geno must think we are a bit short, even though he can't say it.

I know Geno like to play it "close to the vest", but this is one time I hope he as an "ace " or two up his sleeve.

 

[chrissaran]

I think UConn is short on players overall. They only have 4 coming back.

Kia Nurse, Katie Lou Samuelson, Gabby Williams, Napheesa Collier, Natalie Butler, Saniya Chong and Courtney Ekmark. Waquoit, you're right. Only four.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Tuck is 6'2" with limited ups. She made up for that with smarts. Collier at 6'1" plays way taller than Tuck. Geno and Co. will teach her the smarts. Anyone that has watched Williams play knows that she is 6'6" in a 5'11" body.

I realize it's off season but kvetching about who or what the team doesn't have is a waste. Better to consider who the team does have and what their impact might be. IMO Butler will improve in the off season, at least enough to start at center. Samuelson at the wing, Collier a PF, Williams a floater with Nurse and Chong in the back court. My only real question mark for the season is Chong. Will she or won't she? OMG! That's only 6 players in the starting lineup.

I am a born pessimist. I wish I had TonyC's optimism but my glass is usually 90% empty. My prediction - next years team will make the FF.

Yes, Tuck was 6'2", but she was a wide body and very strong. That was a major factor underneath. Napheesa is an inch shorter, but not a big body underneath, so big difference.

Yes, it's the off-season, but just saying that before we talk about another NC, we need serious help in the middle. Need to recruit help.

 

[CocoHusky]

But Geno also tried to use Gabby as a forward: how did that work out? "Necessity is the mother of invention."

It worked out brilliantly because Gabby literally has world class athleticism that allowed her to out jump players that were several inches taller than her. Imagine if Geno tried to do the same (make her a PF) with Courtney-who happens to be "taller" than Gabby BTW.

 

[Charliebball]

I know Geno like to play it "close to the vest", but this is one time I hope he as an "ace " or two up his sleeve.

Based on Geno's recent quote from another thread apparently not: "We ain't winning this again the next few years."

 

[CocoHusky]

Let's declare that all of this is speculation: no one knows how the future will play out. But, among points not made, consider these. Stewart as a freshman was bounced around pretty hard, sometimes into the cheap seats. She never got bigger and stronger in the sense that her physical make-up made her more effective in the post as her career advanced. Recent studies of the physical Bre indicate that she has an extremely FLEXIBLE body, which enables her to contort herself in ways not available to every player. She became adept at avoiding unnecessary contact, as a bullfighter avoids the bull (and Bre avoided fouling). Her long arms and jumping ability along with superb coordination and anticipation contributed immeasurably to her success. I am not saying that Lou has all of Bre's assets or particular experiences coming in, but I am saying that she should experience a growth trajectory if she is, indeed, a superior player. The bodies of the two are similar; why not anticipate similar upsides?

Are you kidding me. Much of this is not speculation and this is simply not correct: She (Stewie) never got bigger and stronger in the sense that her physical make-up made her more effective in the post as her career advanced. The team actually keeps records of weight lifting capacity from year to year. Guarantee you Stewies numbers went up every year she was at UCONN.
It has nothing to do with similar body type, It has to do with God-Given athletic ability (fast twitch muscles). Stewie is explosively athletic, KLS is athletic.
You can develop fast twitch muscles but you cannot grow them if you are not born with them.

 

[victor64]

After reading this thread, I have a couple of observations.

1. Kyla Irwin, from the video I saw is not a post. She appears somewhat "Tuck" like in physique but handles it better and shoots it outside better. I never saw her in the post. I would have hard time believing that she could compare to Tuck's post play next year or ever.

2. Collier does not play bigger than Tuck. She is a runner. She is not an outside shooter yet but will be. I think her and Gabby have similar games.

3. If Butler can't stay out of foul trouble or defend or rebound to meet Geno's needs, it will be fun watching them play small ball. I just can't visualize how it will look.

4. I am looking forward to next season and I bet the staff is too. The pressure will be off a little. The staff was terrific the last four years. They will demonstrate even more so next year how great they are.

 

[HuskyNan]

Are you kidding me. Much of this is not speculation and this is simply not correct: She (Stewie) never got bigger and stronger in the sense that her physical make-up made her more effective in the post as her career advanced. The team actually keeps records of weight lifting capacity from year to year. Guarantee you Stewies numbers went up every year she was at UCONN.
It has nothing to do with similar body type, It has to do with God-Given athletic ability (fast twitch muscles). Stewie is explosively athletic, KLS is athletic.
You can develop fast twitch muscles but you cannot grow them if you are not born with them.

Freshman Stewie and Senior Stewie. Check out the shoulders in the second picture.

 

[Biff]

I realize it's off season but kvetching about who or what the team doesn't have is a waste.

I know you felt that should be said but I also know you've been around long enough to realize the real kvetching hasn't even gotten traction yet. Going to be a long off season. And, to ice the cake, the in-season kvetching next winter could be world class.