Is UConn WBB Ahead of Schedule?

[oldude]

Like many UConn fans, I am spoiled. Rather than celebrating the incredible streak of 13 straight FF’s, I tend to focus on 4 straight losses in the National Semifinals. But a little over a week since the disappointing loss to AZ, I have started to consider the extraordinary success of this year’s team and what lies ahead.

Geno will tell anyone who listens that, “Winning a championship is really hard.” It took Dawn Staley 9 years to win her one and only championship at SC. Kelly Graves has been building a program towards a championship for 7 years at OR. The winningest coach in the history of WBB, Tara VanDerveer, just won her 3rd National Championship, after a 29-year drought, with two 1-point wins over SC & AZ that could have gone the other way had a last second shot fallen for either opponent. Every other team, not named UConn, builds to FF’s and national championships over many years.

So what to make of this year’s UConn team? I believe this is the youngest team ever to make it to the FF, averaging less than 1.5 years of college basketball per player with no seniors. Add all the challenges of navigating a season characterized by a global pandemic, postponements, cancellations and quarantines, and making it to the FF was a heavy lift for UConn.

The AR loss was clearly a turning point. Afterwards, UConn picked up their defense and improved their offensive execution. Nika and Aaliyah both emerged as key contributors. Christyn reminded everyone why she was the #1 player in her class. Liv became a more physical player. Evina seemed to play with less pain and contributed whatever was needed from game to game. Aubrey provided energy off the bench. Paige was Paige, the first ever freshman to earn NPOY.

UConn won a series of tough games at TN, in OT vs SC and then on to the NCAA Tournament with wins over a big Syracuse team, a high scoring Iowa team and the powerful Baylor Lady Bears. UConn finally lost to another veteran team AZ, who like AR exploited some of the weaknesses of this young Husky team. I absolutely believe that the AZ loss will motivate the Huskies next season like nothing else could.

After the AZ loss, Geno talked about the 2001 UConn team, which also lost in the National semifinals when DT was just a freshman and had possibly the worst game of her career. At the start of the following season, with an experienced Husky team, Geno knew he had a championship team before UConn ever played a game. The 2002 team steamrolled everyone on their way to a 39-0 record for the first of three straight national championships. This year, after the AZ loss, Geno surprised some with an almost brash prediction that, “We’ll be back.”

Yes, UConn has been to 13 straight FF’s. But trying to be objective, it was highly improbable that a team this young should have made it to a FF this season. IMO, UConn WBB is ahead of schedule. With all but one player coming back, a talented group of freshmen and one key transfer coming in, UConn will once again be hunting championships for several years to come.

 

[BRS24]

So what to make of this year’s UConn team? I believe this is the youngest team ever to make it to the FF, averaging less than 1.5 years of college basketball per player with no seniors. Add all the challenges of navigating a season characterized by a global pandemic, postponements, cancellations and quarantines, and making it to the FF was a heavy lift for UConn.

The AR loss was clearly a turning point. Afterwards, UConn picked up their defense and improved their offensive execution. Nika and Aaliyah both emerged as key contributors. Christyn reminded everyone why she was the #1 player in her class. Liv became a more physical player. Evina seemed to play with less pain and contributed whatever was needed from game to game. Aubrey provided energy off the bench. Paige was Paige, the first ever freshman to earn NPOY.

UConn won a series of tough games at TN, in OT vs SC and then on to the NCAA Tournament with wins over a big Syracuse team, a high scoring Iowa team and the powerful Baylor Lady Bears. UConn finally lost to another veteran team AZ, who like AR exploited some of the weaknesses of this young Husky team. I absolutely believe that the AZ loss will motivate the Huskies next season like nothing else could.

I am still thinking about Nika's injury and the "what if". What if she hadn't been hurt. The team would have used the same starting lineup as the BE tourney, and moving through the NCAAs, built up confidence and playing time together. In a far flung parallel, reminds me of 1997 1st round game where Shea was injured. The team got to the regional final, but they weren't the same as prior to the tourney. Regardless of how much talent or how deep the bench, it's not easy changing the rhythm of a team when a significant part is removed.

 

[oldude]

I am still thinking about Nika's injury and the "what if". What if she hadn't been hurt. The team would have used the same starting lineup as the BE tourney, and moving through the NCAAs, built up confidence and playing time together. In a far flung parallel, reminds me of 1997 1st round game where Shea was injured. The team got to the regional final, but they weren't the same as prior to the tourney. Regardless of how much talent or how deep the bench, it's not easy changing the rhythm of a team when a significant part is removed.

Aaliyah certainly stepped up as Nika’s replacement in the starting lineup but I agree that UConn was a different team without Nika with fewer options.

 

[eebmg]

I thought at the start if the season, FF was reasonable. So I would say reasonably on pace. There were of course developments that exceeded expectations. Most were named PB and AE and wins against #1 SC and Baylor which were balanced by for me surprising losses to Az, Ark. which were due to youth. So in all, on pace.

 

[hoopsfan22]

I say right on schedule. I'm sure many thought a final four this year was a crap shoot with Megan leaving early, and then when the bracket showed a game against Baylor to advance, I'm sure many thought the final four streak was toast. However, knowing what the team gains next season, I think anything less than a national championship would be a disappointment.

 

[huskiemaniac]

As stated in another thread, in Nov. I'd have gladly signed for beating Baylor in the E8 to lose in the semis. That said, I'm not sure that beating a Didi-less Baylor, the way that we did, has me convinced we're ahead of schedule. Probably right on schedule, imo.

 

[Waquoit]

You would have to say ahead of schedule. No help from 2 recruiting classes and still made the FF.

 

[hoopsfan22]

You would have to say ahead of schedule. No help from 2 recruiting classes and still made the FF.

But the team still featured half of the nation's #1 high school recruits in its starting lineup, plus a red-shirt junior who was the second best recruit in her class behind Megan. That's a pretty good foundation upon which to build a team. I think if you looked at the level of talent alone as I just did superficially, you'd say that level of talent should put a team into the final four because there are few if any others that would be as good on paper.

 

[oldude]

But the team still featured half of the nation's #1 high school recruits in its starting lineup, plus a red-shirt junior who was the second best recruit in her class behind Megan. That's a pretty good foundation upon which to build a team. I think if you looked at the level of talent alone as I just did superficially, you'd say that level of talent should put a team into the final four because there are few if any others that would be as good on paper.

Thinking back to 2017, when a young and extremely talented OR team, with 3 talented freshmen in the starting lineup made an improbable run to the Elite 8 with a stunning upset over MD in the Sweet 16. They were lead by future NPOY Sabrina Ionescu. But they ran into a buzz saw in Bridgeport, CT during the Elite 8 game when an undefeated UConn team beat the Ducks handily.

I don’t know about you, but I wasn’t overly confident that UConn would prevail against Syracuse, Iowa and certainly not Baylor. Strangely enough, I was very confident that UConn would beat AZ. Go figure?

 

[Waquoit]

But the team still featured half of the nation's #1 high school recruits in its starting lineup, plus a red-shirt junior who was the second best recruit in her class behind Megan. That's a pretty good foundation upon which to build a team. I think if you looked at the level of talent alone as I just did superficially, you'd say that level of talent should put a team into the final four because there are few if any others that would be as good on paper.

They made the FF and their two best players and team leaders were 1st-year players. You couldn't expect that going in to the season. The upperclassmen were the letdown overall.

 

[NY Fan]

Like many UConn fans, I am spoiled. Rather than celebrating the incredible streak of 13 straight FF’s, I tend to focus on 4 straight losses in the National Semifinals. But a little over a week since the disappointing loss to AZ, I have started to consider the extraordinary success of this year’s team and what lies ahead.

Geno will tell anyone who listens that, “Winning a championship is really hard.” It took Dawn Staley 9 years to win her one and only championship at SC. Kelly Graves has been building a program towards a championship for 7 years at OR. The winningest coach in the history of WBB, Tara VanDerveer, just won her 3rd National Championship, after a 29-year drought, with two 1-point wins over SC & AZ that could have gone the other way had a last second shot fallen for either opponent. Every other team, not named UConn, builds to FF’s and national championships over many years.

So what to make of this year’s UConn team? I believe this is the youngest team ever to make it to the FF, averaging less than 1.5 years of college basketball per player with no seniors. Add all the challenges of navigating a season characterized by a global pandemic, postponements, cancellations and quarantines, and making it to the FF was a heavy lift for UConn.

The AR loss was clearly a turning point. Afterwards, UConn picked up their defense and improved their offensive execution. Nika and Aaliyah both emerged as key contributors. Christyn reminded everyone why she was the #1 player in her class. Liv became a more physical player. Evina seemed to play with less pain and contributed whatever was needed from game to game. Aubrey provided energy off the bench. Paige was Paige, the first ever freshman to earn NPOY.

UConn won a series of tough games at TN, in OT vs SC and then on to the NCAA Tournament with wins over a big Syracuse team, a high scoring Iowa team and the powerful Baylor Lady Bears. UConn finally lost to another veteran team AZ, who like AR exploited some of the weaknesses of this young Husky team. I absolutely believe that the AZ loss will motivate the Huskies next season like nothing else could.

After the AZ loss, Geno talked about the 2001 UConn team, which also lost in the National semifinals when DT was just a freshman and had possibly the worst game of her career. At the start of the following season, with an experienced Husky team, Geno knew he had a championship team before UConn ever played a game. The 2002 team steamrolled everyone on their way to a 39-0 record for the first of three straight national championships. This year, after the AZ loss, Geno surprised some with an almost brash prediction that, “We’ll be back.”

Yes, UConn has been to 13 straight FF’s. But trying to be objective, it was highly improbable that a team this young should have made it to a FF this season. IMO, UConn WBB is ahead of schedule. With all but one player coming back, a talented group of freshmen and one key transfer coming in, UConn will once again be hunting championships for several years to come.

Above are great points made. I take a back seat to no one in being a Geno/UCONN fan by adding to your points that 3 of those FF loses were to lesser teams - not lower ranked, but lesser teams. CW had the same look on her face as Lou had after Miss. State loss, and both teams regretted not coming out with more energy/passion. Be it immaturity, multiple distractions, whatever, as a student of human nature I can't explain it. Nor can I lay it all on the various FF teams, when there seems to be a common denominator over several years/teams. I can't even convincingly explain it to myself.

 

[warbler1055]

As a team, UConn is just about what was predicted and expected. A team is as good as its weakest link. Making the FF is a great achievement but losing to AZ exposed our weakness and youth. While debatable, IMHO, PB and ONO had their worst game vs AZ. Now making the final in 2021 would be ahead of schedule.

 

[CocoHusky]

As a team, UConn is just about what was predicted and expected. A team is as good as its weakest link. Making the FF is a great achievement but losing to AZ exposed our weakness and youth. While debatable, IMHO, PB and ONO had their worst game vs AZ. Now making the final in 2021 would be ahead of schedule.

I don't think it was Arizona that exposed our weakness nor do I think the teams weakness has anything to do with youth. IMO the top weakness are 1) Lack of game changing perimeter defender or dominant rebounder 2) Enough "quality" depth to dictate and or change the pace of play 3) In ability to generate easy baskets.
Every year we continue to hope that these items are addressed and even if they were new ones will emerge.

 

[LoboDays]

I guess we can all have different views about where the team stands in our own personal schedules. Here’s mine going forward only. This is the most loaded roster - top to bottom - this team has ever had. They also have a super star.....maybe two. So my schedule is this. Anything short of a National Championship next season is a failed grade for Geno. No excuses about a young team. No excuses about anything. He has a Sweet Sixteen - maybe an Elite Eight team sitting on the bench fighting for minutes. He is drowning in talent. It’s up to him to get them ready for teams that can do what Arizona did to them. It’s up to him to get them motivated for tough competition after coming off 10 consecutive Big East games of sleep walking to victory. It’s all up to him. It’s the NC or bust.

 

[MooseJaw]

Aaliyah certainly stepped up as Nika’s replacement in the starting lineup but I agree that UConn was a different team without Nika with fewer options.

I am going against the grain here, but what if Nika's injury was a catalyst for the team to go further with Aaliyah as a starter than it would have with Nika. I am not taking this position, can any say with certainty that it's not the case. Yes UCONN was a different team without Nika, was her injury the reason we lost in the semi's? I don't think so for a variety of reasons. I have been a Nika fan from her announcement to commit, I don't know if she starts next year, I don't know who does, I wait with baited breath until we find out. One thing I know with certainty Geno will play every game to win, what part of the equation Nika is will play out next season. I'm OK with that.

 

[hoophuskee]

This team was a flawed team. They had no seniors unless you count Evina but reassitically the knee kind of makes her not comparable what you'd think for a number 2 recruit. As a result that class is not very good.

The junior class had one player come along and be a complete player while the other is good but is more of a one dimensional player with some offensive skill but very limited.

The soph class lacked star power.

Overall it ended being too much to overcome.

And unless the player from Ohio State is good vs the elite teams the team will remain flawed but still could win it all. The NCAA Tourney is not set up for the best to win. And next year there is going to be some teams with a ton of experience like Az had (like Miss State had. Both were extremely close to winning it all I think) and at end of season whatever they are doing - it works at an extreme level.

This team got to the FF and had a chance. Next year's team will be stronger and get to the FF. After that-- who knows. The teams that get to the FF have scholarship players too. And have very good coaches. And some are hot.

I say on schedule.

 

[oldhusky]

I was generally pleased with the season. I thought they would be better than last year, and they were despite their youth. My biggest concern is how we played against the ranked teams. I think in those scenarios our lack of experience showed, particularly on offense.

For most of the season we were able to generate high percentage shots, more because of the passing that was added this year with Paige, Nika, and Evina. Against the better teams, those easy system shots disappeared and our plan B seemed sometimes like a work in progress. Our ability to get easy shots against mediocre defenses was very good, our ability to hit tough shots against very good defenses was not, but of course except for Paige this was not a great shooting team.

Obviously Liv feasted on mediocrity but seems to be completely ineffective against good and physical bigs. Geno's comments about Aaliyah suggests that next year she will be the number one option down low. That would help if she was a low post option even against top teams, and Gorka might address that weakness as well. In addition this year's great passing team but not so good shooting team, will add about as much pure shooting ability as you could hope for in Azzi, Carolyn, and maybe Saylor.

Last year even though we were still highly ranked, I didn't think we had much chance for a championship, because the top three teams had all played and beat us fairly decisively. We might have made it to the Final Four, but then would have likely needed two significant upsets against teams better than us to win the title. The previous years we had missed out on some star recruits, and by Uconn standards this year was kind of a rebuilding year.

Like most rebuilding situations you start with some key pieces, and then add to that in subsequent years, perhaps peaking 2 or 3 years later. This year we added Paige, Aaliyah, and Nika as key players you can build around. The other existing players and Evina were good enough that with the new additions we could compete for a championship now but the freshmen were the key to the future.

In year two, I expect Azzi, Carolyn, Amari and now Gorka (for two years) to be major building blocks. Except for Gorka they get three seasons with this year's class. Those two classes by themselves puts us right there for their three years together. With minimal losses (Anna), on paper next year we could peak and most of the building is done.

The year after we could take it up further, but that is a little hard to tell. We already have Brady and Patterson coming, maybe one more, but we lose Christyn, Evina and Liv. Do those recruits bring more help than we lose? I think it might be close, but that team could still be better than next year's because we would have so many freshmen and sophomores improving with another year of experience.

So I see this year as a good to great rebuilding year, with the other building blocks on their way for two more years. In the meantime maximizing that potential may depend on how we evolve against the very best teams. If they take away most open threes, and have a big shot blocker down low, we still need to find a way to get a decent shot. With more shooting, more possible lineups, a deeper bench and more experience, I think it will come, probably by next year. I guess that makes me on schedule but a fast track!

 

[MD#12Fan]

Aaliyah certainly stepped up as Nika’s replacement in the starting lineup but I agree that UConn was a different team without Nika with fewer options.

Great post!
Of course AE was effective! She was also effective as the 6th man coming off the bench. Same could be true next year. Ever heard of John Havlicek? How about Kevin McHale.
How about acknowledging Nika's contributions to the team, rather than sluffing them off. The premise of your entire thread: ahead of schedule. Did Nika contribute to that? Our defense was STELLAR before her injury. The Marquette game was a clinic. What did we do to Villanova's star player? I get it, the BE sucks. I tell you though, we weren't pressuring the ball in the tourney like we had been. We weren't aggressively switching. We weren't getting in the passing lanes like we had been. We weren't fronting the post like we had been. It all started on top with Nika's pressure. Watch the tape.
Nika and Aaliyah can both play and they can both be major contributors. What is the BY going to do when you have 14 "players" over there ready to play. I guess I'll have to argue with HoopHusky (?) about Geno playing more than 6-7 players.

 

[Rb335]

As stated in another thread, in Nov. I'd have gladly signed for beating Baylor in the E8 to lose in the semis. That said, I'm not sure that beating a Didi-less Baylor, the way that we did, has me convinced we're ahead of schedule. Probably right on schedule, imo.

I tend to agree, although it’s worth noting that DiDi did play 30 minutes and Nika played 0. Still you can’t deny the impact her injury had on the outcome. I’d say it’s inexplicable that Kim didn’t take a timeout after the first 8 points of the run.

But given the two big wins and two questionable losses, I’d say this team demonstrated good talent but a little immaturity. With another year experience, I expect them to be on pace to once again be one of the favorites for the NC. And the additions to the roster certainly will help.

 

[EricLA]

As stated in another thread, in Nov. I'd have gladly signed for beating Baylor in the E8 to lose in the semis. That said, I'm not sure that beating a Didi-less Baylor, the way that we did, has me convinced we're ahead of schedule. Probably right on schedule, imo.

True, but we beat a "Didi-less" Baylor team down 2 starters. Anna early on, and Nika late. Sure Didi went down during the game, and some would say "UCONN had time to figure out what to do without Anna and Nika". But when you go 8 deep, losing 2 starters is still huge.

I agree with OC. We are ahead of schedule, but not necessarily by a ton. Paige is better than even Geno thought. Some (not many) expected Liya to be as good as she is. Very few expected Nika to be this good (@MilfordHusky is one of the few). I LOVED Anna, but with her gone it opens up more PT for guards, specifically Caroline and to a lesser extent Saylor/Mir/Aubrey should they all have a big leap over the summer.

Rebecca said "You better get UCONN this year because no one will next year". Well Arizona got us. I think the team grew up a ton after the Arkansas loss, but they were not able to overcome losing 2 starters. Sure Anna and Nika played in the NCAA's, but neither was the player they were before the injuries.

And the Arizona loss will STING. Talk about unfinished business. This team will be on a mission next season.

 

[NY Fan]

True, but we beat a "Didi-less" Baylor team down 2 starters. Anna early on, and Nika late. Sure Didi went down during the game, and some would say "UCONN had time to figure out what to do without Anna and Nika". But when you go 8 deep, losing 2 starters is still huge.

I agree with OC. We are ahead of schedule, but not necessarily by a ton. Paige is better than even Geno thought. Some (not many) expected Liya to be as good as she is. Very few expected Nika to be this good (@MilfordHusky is one of the few). I LOVED Anna, but with her gone it opens up more PT for guards, specifically Caroline and to a lesser extent Saylor/Mir/Aubrey should they all have a big leap over the summer.

Rebecca said "You better get UCONN this year because no one will next year". Well Arizona got us. I think the team grew up a ton after the Arkansas loss, but they were not able to overcome losing 2 starters. Sure Anna and Nika played in the NCAA's, but neither was the player they were before the injuries.

And the Arizona loss will STING. Talk about unfinished business. This team will be on a mission next season.

Not to be picky, but hard for me to understand your logic on one point: The team beats an NC caliber (per Geno) Baylor without Nika and Anna, yet loses without the same two to a surely lesser than Baylor team, Arizona. I might even argue UCONN beat Baylor because of the bigger lineup that included AE.

 

[oldude]

The difference between an experienced team and an inexperienced one is often subtle. From my perspective it comes down to lapses on defense and empty possessions on offense.

After the AZ game, UConn played really solid defense. Player communication was excellent, defensive intensity was good and defensive breakdowns were kept to a minimum.

On the offensive side, while UConn got better, in just about every game there seemed to be a stretch when UConn had a number of empty possessions. The Huskies either turned it over, put up a bad shot, or got a good shot or a layup and simply missed. These are the kind of things that an experienced team cuts down to a minimum.

It’s not about completely reinventing the team or playing beyond your capabilities. Just a handful of possessions each game, with a little better execution, and that’s how you win a championship.

 

[Tonyc]

Well I have a different perspective on UConns losses. We got into foul trouble. Miss St imo and the bad no call on Sanyiya. IMO it was a bad call against UConn when Saniya drove the lane and the defender jumped in front of her. She was fouled IMO. She was a senior and if she had gone to the line and made one foul shot Miss St didnt have enough time to get down court and take a good shot. As far as AZ this year. They played the best defense against UConn and Stanford Ive seen. Yeah we were in foul trouble which limited our defense just like against ND so many times on calls that were questionable imo. Some of you will disagree and thats your opinion. Against AZ we missed alot of bunnies and we didnt finish strong and thats a problem too. I dont blame anyone. I blame the people calling the fouls that were suspect. Next season we have alot of fouls to give.

 

[UcMiami]

I think Geno thought he had a S16 team at the start of the season, and probably thought he had an E8 team by the start of the BE tournament. So, yeah, I think they arrived at the FF ahead of schedule.
You can point to any number of teams like Oregon, the preceding year with MissSt is the obvious one, but 2007 and 2008 Uconn, 2011/2012 Uconn also fit in that 'too young and not quite ready' scenario, as does Baylor 2011. NCs are hard and take a level of maturity to remain even and focused - any team you see wildly celebrating a win in the NCAA before the NC game is likely not going to rise to the next game's challenges.

 

[BBallF]

Really great thread and a lot to think about with all the posts. I do agree with HH that we were a flawed team, viewed from any optic. I also very much agree with the BYers who correctly identified the loss of Nika as a key development. It had so many consequences. Primarily, it changed the rhythm of the team and took away a very strong on ball defender at the point while also simultaneously causing more playing time for our guards, especially Evina. As a flawed and immature team, weaknesses became apparent and magnified under pressure and finally against a mature and experienced team.

Baylor may have been the toughest team in the country and certainly the most physical so that was a great win. I was very disappointed in our performance against Arizona as I know we all were and so was the team and coaching staff. I would put a summary for the season in a different way and say that in retrospect, we rose to the top level we could be reasonably expected to get to considering our flaws and circumstances. That is not to say that a NC was not attainable this year but it would have required many ducks to be lined up perfectly and then some luck and perhaps most importantly, freshmen, sophomores and juniors playing like seniors for 2 games in 3 days.

As for next year, I am very optimistic. Evina will be a much improved player, that extra year is key for a knee injury. So will AE. Liv has one last chance to be a big game player. Azzi and CD give us range and great 3 point shooting and Azzi is a true scoring talent. We got very strong underneath overnight with a transfer and in general with a new recruit, and we return the POY and another player who will be first team AA in CW. Moreover, they were pissed, embarrassed, and will have that bitter taste of defeat in their mouths for months. I know Evina is cut from old cloth and came back for "unfinished business" which is so endearing and unusual in this period of "me,I,me,I". Watch for her to take on an even greater leadership role and push everyone. It be different this year. It will be more serious, driven, and relentless. You will know right away if the team has the eye of the tiger. I think they will, at their unmerciful best.