Frank, there's a lot of merit to your views, but here are a few issues where your judgment seems a bit off:
1) Bundling: A la carte isn't going to happen unless legislators force it. Bundling is the revenue maximizing strategy; see, eg,
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/bakos/big.pdf. As you say a la carte would reduce the number of channels from 300 to 60; but it would also substantially reduce revenue to all cable providers and content producers. Consumers would spend less and some would prefer that (those who only watch a few channels), but some consumers would be better off for having 300 channels at a higher price, which they could only have if those who like few channels are forced to buy a bundle.
That's true even for the B1G, the BTN gets more revenue as a channel in a cable bundle than they ever could as an a la carte offering.
2) UConn's market size: The audience for UConn extends beyond the state of Connecticut. It is the only prominent public university in New York-New England and has fans throughout the region. Whereas most of those southern schools not only don't draw much beyond their state borders, they split their own states with other major universities. Your discussions consistently underestimate UConn's audience and brand value, and overestimate the audience brought by the southern schools.
3) If size of the league is a restraining factor, ie the B1G has to stop at 18, then you're right UConn has to be one of the top 4 most attractive schools over and above two of UVa, UNC, Ga Tech, FSU, and Duke. It's not obvious how the B1G would rank order those schools if all 6 were available simultaneously. But:
a) If the league can grow to 20 or more -- and in fact they may be compelled to grow to at least 20 to generate enough attractive content to populate the BTN -- then UConn has a lower hurdle to jump over. If B1G size is unlimited, UConn only needs to be accretive / add positive value. Given the extra content it brings and the large market UConn serves, that should be an easy hurdle for UConn to jump. Just natural growth of the football program would probably give the university enough stature and national fans to be accretive.
b) If the B1G plans to get to 20 or more, then it has space to use UConn as a pairing for more attractive schools who are ready to enter without a partner. I.e., if UVa is ready to go B1G but UNC isn't, then UConn is likely to get an early invitation to be UVa's partner in the same way Rutgers was ready to go as UMd's partner. That wouldn't prevent the B1G from adding UNC/Duke/GaTech/FSU later to get to 20. By weakening the ACC one school at a time, the B1G has easier negotiations with the remaining ACC schools.
4) The ND wildcard. Which schools make the B1G most attractive to Notre Dame? UConn is not #1 here, but the Huskies are surely an attractive partner for ND. ND has intense interest in the northeast (NYC-Hartford-Boston) markets and has had extensive scheduling discussions with UConn in football, as well as a history of rivalry in multiple sports.
5) The SEC/B12 wildcards. The southern schools have options as to which conferences/networks they want to join. The SEC surely wants UNC as much as the B1G does. There is competition and it is not guaranteed that the B1G will get all the schools it desires. If so, they still need to grow to generate content for the BTN. If the B1G loses competition for some of the top southern schools, then UConn may quickly become the most attractive partner available. UConn >> NC State, Va Tech, or Clemson.
When you add in all these factors, I think UConn will end up in the B1G, either as #16, #18, or #20.
