Interview With Gerry DiNardo

[Husky25]

I thought UConn should defund the football program in short order. Now you have them as a 3rd choice for the B1G?

 

[freescooter]

Cable companies and internet companies need to provide faster internet that is price appropriate.

True 4g has faster download and streaming capabilities than most basic cable internet or DSL internet. Problem is there is not a true 4G network in place in the USA except for in the large affluent cities (and even those arent 100% covered)

That might be so, but it is possible/probable that systems get upgraded fairly quickly. ATT just upped my internet speed at no cost, presumably because it is cheaper to provide the faster service now than the slower service. They just don't offer the other service anymore. 10 years ago, the majority of the population used dial-up internet service. I'm not even sure it exists anymore. I suspect that the level of service and steaming capabilities we currently see will seem like dial up within 5 years, making live streaming much more feasible than it currently is.

 

[CL82]

There is a misconception in CR analysis that seemed to be fairly widely held.
The notion of "delivering the NYC market" as if we are measuring households in the 5 boroughs, is a flawed view of what is being valued. RU doesn't deliver NYC. It delivers a good percentage of densely populated North Jersey which happens to be in the NYC DMA. Connecticut delivers a good percentange of Fairfield County, which also happens to be in the NYC DMA. So we don't need for RU to 'fail' for us to be successful. Plus we deliver the Hartford/New Haven DMA, plus the eastern portion of the state, and draw well in NYC, and New England. That is an attractive package to put on the table.

 

[freescooter]

I think the list looks like this (talking about schools that may realistically join):

1) UVa
2) UNC
3) UConn
4) BCU
5) Syracuse

I have not seen a credible argument for why the Big 10 would add FSU or Georgia Tech.

Gotta agree with nelson on this point. I'm not sure I agree on your list of B10 targets, though. I simply don't believe that BC or Syracuse are on their list except as footnotes. BC would be the smallest school in the league. It is neither a sports power like Nebraska nor a research power like Northwestern, th eonly other private school in the league and currently the smallest. Syracuse might be closer, but it is still a private school and only larger than Northwestern. And unless you buy the NY's Team mumbojumbo, what does it get you that is better than a successful Rutgers? (I know, I know, that's probably the first time those two words have been used in the same sentence!) Georgia Tech doesn't get you anything. It is the 2nd fiddle in Georgia behind the Dawgs. Academics are better, bu tthe Big doesn't need to improve its academic credentials. Everyone accepts that it a top academic conference regardless of the facts of the case. It won't accept a Boise State level school, but it doesn't have to accept one. And they aren't taking Florida State. Florida State, as nelson said, is another 2nd school both athletically and academically in its home state. Why would the Big do that? The only "2nd schools" they have are those that were original members like Purdue or major public research institutions in their own right, Michigan State.

 

[buggsy]

I think Frank brings up some valid points... That said I (personally) still think there is a lot of value in the total number of people in our region and the density. Not that it won't change over time but it won't fall off a cliff, either. I think there is value (dollar, and less tangible value) in bringing B1G teams and competition to this region. It's not just the value that UConn adds in a vacuum. UConn is unique in that it is New England's team as well as having a very solid NY/NJ draw. It ain't BC or Syracuse, that's for sure. The demand to have UConn on TV is high in CT, this we know. Adding B1G teams would broaden the region of TV interest. To me, I think there's a lot of bang for the buck that UConn can deliver.

Hopefully this is recognized by folks who make these decisions.

I'm sorry but Connecticut does NOT have a real solid draw in NY...and it has NO draw in NJ. If you think people in NJ care about UCONN, other than the small alumni base there....you're mistaken.

Syracuse and BC (especially the Catholic community) have much larger draws in NJ then UCONN...but even they are tiny.
None push the needle whatsoever.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I agree with three out of the four. Clemson gets 1/3 of SC. Not sure GT gets 10% of Georgia. And SC is one of the fastest growing states in the southeast.

It might be more than 1/3. But for how long? 20 years ago it was probably more than 1/2. But USC being in the SEC, and more recently, Spurrier, have changed that.

The fact is that everything each or you says, including Frank, is plausible. The result is gridlock. I suspect that the crazy WV guys may be right, and Delany may have market information showing UConn as far more of a factor in NY than most people believe. I think it is possible. But I also think that its stuck at the moment, and it's somewhat unlikely that the B1G gets its wish to move into NC with UNC. There are too many players right now, and we need to see how it plays out.

 

[Davidm]

I'm sorry but Connecticut does NOT have a real solid draw in NY....

SNY reports otherwise yes we know you are a rutgers fan not sure why you are on here to try and bring Uconn down.

I'd say Uconn basketball in NY has a more than solid draw.

 

[CTMike]

I'm sorry but Connecticut does NOT have a real solid draw in NY...and it has NO draw in NJ. If you think people in NJ care about UCONN, other than the small alumni base there....you're mistaken.

Syracuse and BC (especially the Catholic community) have much larger draws in NJ then UCONN...but even they are tiny.
None push the needle whatsoever.

Let me clarify since Rutgers fan wants to play semantics. CT absolutely has a solid NY draw, as SNY ratings show. In basketball- it's unquestionable. In football - at worst UConn is on par with Rutgers. BC is outright laughable and Syracuse is still good for a chuckle.

Now in NJ- yes, obviously Rutgers will draw more. Happy? I mean, that should be obvious. But lots of kids from NJ go to UConn. It's a fact. Again, not as many as go to Rutgers, for obvious reasons, but it's a fact. SNY airs UConn games in NJ. There's a reason. Anecdotally, my whole family is in Northern Jersey and there is ZERO interest in Rutgers. Straight up apathy.

 

[CTMike]

I'm sorry but Connecticut does NOT have a real solid draw in NY...and it has NO draw in NJ. If you think people in NJ care about UCONN, other than the small alumni base there....you're mistaken.

Syracuse and BC (especially the Catholic community) have much larger draws in NJ then UCONN...but even they are tiny.
None push the needle whatsoever.

Anyway, this misses the larger point. Aside from our lack of guidos and your lack of success, we are quite similar, and we would both stand to benefit from us being in the B1G with you.

 

[ctchamps]

It might be more than 1/3. But for how long? 20 years ago it was probably more than 1/2. But USC being in the SEC, and more recently, Spurrier, have changed that.

The fact is that everything each or you says, including Frank, is plausible. The result is gridlock. I suspect that the crazy WV guys may be right, and Delany may have market information showing UConn as far more of a factor in NY than most people believe. I think it is possible. But I also think that its stuck at the moment, and it's somewhat unlikely that the B1G gets its wish to move into NC with UNC. There are too many players right now, and we need to see how it plays out.

Exactly. There are so many variables and ultimately people don't always just choose on pure rationality. I would say the push to get NJ and Maryland was more about contiguity to the SE than because those universities or their states met Frank's criteria of growing states.

 

[upstater]

A couple of points:

1.

NJ is "growing faster than the national average"

Just saw an article that said New Jersey is dead last, losing more residents per capita than every other state. But here's the thing--the losses are really not big compared to the population. Which means the population shift to the south is moving so gradually that we'll be dead by the time sports entities are cashing in because of it.

2.

So, you have to realize that demographically, New England *isn't* a big growth area and when it comes to football recruiting, it's literally the worst region on a per capita basis (and even bad on an absolute basis compared to places with much smaller populations like Hawaii) in the country.

While I totally buy the argument that the B1G wanted the New Jersey and Maryland recruiting grounds, you can't lump in all of New England in such a fashion. Connecticut, for instance, had several kids drafted into the NFL one year (Spievey, Hernandez, Campbell, etc.). I've seen measures where Conn. comes out around 35-40 in the ranking. It produced an amount that was relatively similar to NJ.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id...in-big-ten-expanding-include-maryland-rutgers

In this link, for instance, it's there with Wisconsin and West Virginia and in the same middling category as New Jersey.

Penn State and Iowa, in particular, have been recruiting Conn. for ages taking multiple players yearly (Iowa not so much anymore). So, lumping all of New England together when there are 4 sparsely populated states with hardly any football (though every once in a while a Kendall Reyes comes out of New Hampshire) is like saying there is no football talent in the Mountain West (Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Nevada) but that neglects Utah which does produce talent.

3. About ala carte TV...

It will work for me because I will buy ESPN, SNY and one other person in the house watches SCI-FI. That's it. That's all we watch, nothing else other than the networks. I am highly confident I will be charged less than $20 for these. But Frank is probably right that it might not work for those who watch 50 channels. I don't know who those people are but I can't imagine watching 50 channels.

4. Is the BTN model so powerful that it charges a decent amount in its footprint? Probably, but then how can you explain Eastern PA. There are a lot of rabid PSU fans there. Is BTN encountering Comcast resistance? What explains the low monthly fees in that region?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

A couple of points:
Just saw an article that said New Jersey is dead last, losing more residents per capita than every other state. But here's the thing--the losses are really not big compared to the population. Which means the population shift to the south is moving so gradually that we'll be dead by the time sports entities are cashing in because of it.

It is this entire line of reasoning that a conference will make moves into new territory because of growth that I find the most specious. Future market size is what's important. Too often growth is equated with or used as a substitute for future size. If growth were the key, businesses would be ignoring China (pop. 1.3 billion, growth rate .5%) and focusing on places like Qatar (pop. 2 million, growth rate 5%) and the Turks and Cacos Islands(pop. 31,000, growth rate 3.2%).

60 million. That's the number to use in discussions. That's the estimated size of the northeast region in 2025. And it's all growth for the B1G because they don't have a presence there now. Anybody know when North Carolina is projected to sextuple its size?

 

[huskypantz]

It is this entire line of reasoning that a conference will make moves into new territory because of growth that I find the most specious. Future market size is what's important. Too often growth is equated with or used as a substitute for future size. If growth were the key, businesses would be ignoring China (pop. 1.3 billion, growth rate .5%) and focusing on places like Qatar (pop. 2 million, growth rate 5%) and the Turks and Cacos Islands(pop. 31,000, growth rate 3.2%).

60 million. That's the number to use in discussions. That's the estimated size of the northeast region in 2025. And it's all growth for the B1G because they don't have a presence there now. Anybody know when North Carolina is projected to sextuple its size?

For many of these states, the growth is largely immigrant hispanic population. Call me crazy, but I'm guessing that they're watching La Liga or EPL, not CFB. There's no connection to State U. I can understand the interest in UVA, UNC and FSU. But UConn is the brand in CT and if you have UConn, you have CT and inroads in NY, MA and RI. You have a top 30 market, a top 20 public institution and a top athletic institution.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

100% disagree. I've been following Big Ten expansion for years and years at this point. There is ZERO doubt that the Big Ten would take UNC within 2 seconds if the Tar Heels were willing. ZERO doubt. Can I repeat that again? ZERO DOUBT. I can't emphasize that enough. Outside of Texas and Notre Dame, UNC is next on the desired list for the Big Ten. Now, the issue is whether UNC is willing to move (which is MUCH easier said than done, as they're not as swayed by TV money). That's an entirely different matter. However, the Big Ten 100% *wants* UNC. Period. It's not even a debate. The logic that you're trying to use to twist it into the Big Ten somehow not looking at UNC or even being less desirable than other Northeastern options simply doesn't apply. The items that you noted about pro sports in North Carolina is *exactly* why UNC is so desirable - it's a massive and growing state where UNC is the single most popular team, whether college or pro, without question. This is compared to the Northeast, where college sports teams rank far below the corresponding pro options.

You also believe that the Big Ten is focused on getting further into the Northeast. I have very heavy doubts about that. Sure, it's an option in the event that Notre Dame changes its mind and joins the Big Ten. Then, you can viably double down on NYC and Boston. However, barring a decision by ND in that manner, Maryland and Rutgers provided three things: (1) very large public research institutions *directly* located in the DC and NYC metro areas, (2) states that are growing faster than the national average and (3) places that actually produce a critical mass of football recruits. (Delany doesn't like saying too much publicly about #3, but don't be so naive to think that this is just an exercise about collecting TV markets and research institutions. This money train that's coming in will only last long-term if the conference is positioned to continue to play football at the highest level. When he says "demographics", that's a code word for "places where we can get great athletes, particularly football players".) The thing that so much of the East Coast-based media neglects to mention when talking about Census figures is that much of the Northeast outside of NYC and DC specifically is facing the exact same demographic challenges as the Midwest. Sure, it's not as bad as Detroit (nothing is), but it's pretty much in line with places like Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin (and actually worse than places like Indiana and Minnesota that are growing at a decent clip). So, you have to realize that demographically, New England *isn't* a big growth area and when it comes to football recruiting, it's literally the worst region on a per capita basis (and even bad on an absolute basis compared to places with much smaller populations like Hawaii) in the country.

Beyond football, there are a decent number of Big Ten grads that move to New England simply because Boston has a large metro area, but you have to realize that it's also one of the weakest destinations for Big Ten alums to move to on a per capita basis, as well. So, the network effects are very low for the Big Ten in Boston compared to NYC and DC and *especially* compared to North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Those 3 states plus Texas are where Big Ten grads (and Midwesterners in general) are moving to the most right now. Hmmm... who is being rumored to be the Big Ten's top targets again? Do you see how it makes sense?

There are many reasons why the Big Ten can't pull off adding UVA, UNC and Georgia Tech. In fact, I'm an on-the-record skeptic of that occurring. However, it is *definitely* not because the Big Ten isn't targeting them for some reason. They definitely are doing so and they are at the top of the list. Make no mistake about that. This is what Jim Delany is specifically talking about when talking about demographics. It also isn't recent, as I can tell you with complete certainty that when Delany spoke with his ADs back in 2010 about expansion (before they added Nebraska), the rumors that you're hearing now were what they were talking about for long-term plans for the conference. It's been in the works for a loooong time. Whether those schools will actually bite is a different story.

I approach this topic (rationale for the B1G to include UConn) from a perspective where I think I can add some value. You have far greater insight into important topics like Big Ten history and intent, alumni dispersion and trends, recruiting territories and trends, and other stuff. I read your posts to learn about those and see where my logic may be flawed. For example, I appreciate your point about the (relative) lack of professional sports interest North Carolina being a positive for the Tar Heels. It isn't that I hadn't thought of (or more accurately, read other who expressed it earlier) the rationale (nor is it something I wouldn't, in general, consider because it is something I do routinely in my own work product) but it wasn't something I was thinking about that when I commented. However, just as it is a current positive for UNC, it is also a potential vulnerability should the pros make move vigorous moves in the region.

You've done a nice job summarizing much of the relevant information around market population growth, shifts, and trends, however, I think you are missing something more important: future size. It doesn't matter much what the growth is if the starting base is small. What does it matter if North Carolina's market of 9 million is growing at an annual rate that exceeds the northeast's by 5%? In 20 years it will still be only 40% as large.

In your opening paragraph, you appear to be under the misunderstanding that I doubt any Big Ten interest in UNC and the South Atlantic coast. That isn't my position. I can see many reasons why they would have a strong interest. In fact, as late as November, I was in the camp that UNC was the next target and UVA would also be added. After looking more closely, I came to the conclusion that, if it were my decision, I would make a move before (or at the same time as) a UNC addition. It's more a matter of timing than ultimate objective in my opinion. A savvy boxer doesn't look for the first punch knockout. He needs to soften up an opponent. Whether the Big Ten would accept UNC in two seconds or not is moot. What happened was they invited Maryland and Rutgers, body blows designed to lower North Carolina's (if that is indeed the target) guard, to make them easier to take out (of the ACC). You seem skeptical that that move was sufficient. The logical response, to me, is another move: UConn and UVA.

What I don't have any real insight into (and you seem to avoid) is what further destabilizing the ACC in order to force North Carolina to reconsider its affiliation might prompt the SEC to do. From a previous reply you made to me you seemed to imply that Delany wouldn't be deterred by whatever the SEC undertook (I may be mischacterizing what you said or your position), a position I find disingenious.

Again, I find your posts to add light without heat.

 

[Fishy]

While I think Frank overweights the importance of a Florida State, he's spot-on with most everything else.

I can appreciate that our current situation sucks so freaking hard that some confirmation bias is good to keep us off the ledge, but the Big Ten is heading south, not north.

I wish that were not the case and if the Big Ten every really expanded past 18 or so, or if they truly cannot split teams off of the ACC, maybe there's a light. But there's nothing now.

 

[ZooCougar]

B1G has major brand issues. UConn would not do anything to improve that.

Looking at the sparsely attendance of the Villanova game right now. Hard to not wonder if this is one of the last rounds of drinks before the bar closes.

 

[ScottBonz]

@DCSportsDept: Good amount of fans at XL today, I'd say around 15,000.

It's pretty sparse up this place right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Fishy]

I'm not sure what branding issues the Big Ten has - everyone should be so lucky as to have the Big Ten's problems.

I think our fan base is just worn out right now. We've taken a steady stream of body shots and I think the conference stuff has been a much bigger drag than we might think.

It might take a couple of years to overcome that.

 

[ZooCougar]

I'm not sure what branding issues the Big Ten has - everyone should be so lucky as to have the Big Ten's problems.

I think our fan base is just worn out right now. We've taken a steady stream of body shots and I think the conference stuff has been a much bigger drag than we might think.

It might take a couple of years to overcome that.

They have major issues with their football brand. The center of gravity in college football has shifted to the south and the west. That's why they need to expand southward and not into an area where people don't particularly care for college football.

 

[ZooCougar]

@DCSportsDept: Good amount of fans at XL today, I'd say around 15,000.

It's pretty sparse up this place right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

On TV it doesn't look that big. But that may have to do with a UConn fandom's allergy to punctuality.

 

[Fishy]

They have major issues with their football brand. The center of gravity in college football has shifted to the south and the west. That's why they need to expand southward and not into an area where people don't particularly care for college football.

Gotcha - agree.

 

[auggie22]

Connecticut appears to be a hotbed of pretty much nothing except Insurance and History and yet we have, arguably, if not the #1 basketball brand over the past 2 decades, then top 5, we have been invited to the best hockey conference, we have great ratings on SNY and are flying up the charts academically, and still rising. So how the heck were all those things pulled off as worthless as our state and market is? If Jim Delaney has completely dismissed UConn as some here want to believe, he is not as smart as everyone says he is.

Ct is a hotbed for hockey, soccer and lacrosse, and isn't bad for basketball - good even, when you factor in prep schools. And NYC basketball speaks for itself.

 

[auggie22]

What are the odds that the sec takes a bunch of ACC schools (va tech, unc, flu, ga tech) to keep the b1g out of their region? Surely Ufla would prefer FSU in the sec vs inviting the b1g into their back yard.

 

[mcs333]

B1G has major brand issues. UConn would not do anything to improve that.

Looking at the sparsely attendance of the Villanova game right now. Hard to not wonder if this is one of the last rounds of drinks before the bar closes.

What the hell you talking about. Sparsely attended. Uconn had by far their largest attendance game of the year. 15, 185. You just like to make negative comments. At least tell the truth!!!

 

[ZooCougar]

What the hell you talking about. Sparsely attended. Uconn had by far their largest attendance game of the year. 15, 185. You just like to make negative comments. At least tell the truth!!!

I said that at the very beginning of the game so I spoke too soon. It looked pretty sparse, sort of like the Rent in the first quarter.