Interesting Vegas Lines

[Nostical]

When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!

 

[auror]

I'm actually shocked Ga Tech is favored over Loyola. That's my favorite first round game.

 

[Rocktheworld]

When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!

Wait so you were surprised when reality didn’t meet your predictions/expectations?

Man sometimes I miss whaler lmao

 

[CTBasketball]

I see some other spreads in games that feature Big10 teams that are very large.

-8.5 for Purdue is laughable.

 

[upstater]

When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!

I have LSU, Clemson, Loyola, Va Tech winning these games in my bracket.

 

[HeGotGame]

When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!

I am surprised that LSU and G Tech are favored

 

[Jay-Bone]

I'm actually shocked Ga Tech is favored over Loyola. That's my favorite first round game.

They're not. GA Tech beat FSU twice, VA & Clemson and won their last 9. They should be favored. Loyola got smoked By Wisc, their only P5 competition. Nasty draw for them.

 

[XLCenterFan]

How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.

 

[Jay-Bone]

I see some other spreads in games that feature Big10 teams that are very large.

-8.5 for Purdue is laughable.

Uhhhh, Trevion Williams would destroy us. North Texas isn't very good and should've lost to Bassey and WKU. You'd be an idiot to take North Texas. Purdue has beaten OSU, WISC, MSU and Minn with Robbins.

 

[Jay-Bone]

How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.

MSU had an identity crisis the last 3rd of the season and Izzo really shook up the lineup. They really struggled but then bounced back a little at the end. I think thats why they've had the question mark on their lines lately. Which MSU are you going to get?

 

[Jay-Bone]

I am surprised that LSU and G Tech are favored

LSU has unlimited fire power with Thomas, Watford and Smart. Watford is a lot of fun to watch. Their D is suspect but they just beat Arkansas and barely lost to Alabama. -1.5 is a steal, although I don't know much about the Bonnies.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Do any of you even watch any games out of conference? Please don't be betting......

 

[Jay-Bone]

When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!

LSU surprised me too. Not only 9 seed but slim line. Is someone hurt? they are not 7 and 6 seeds from Ala and Ark respectively.

Clemson seriously stalled mid-season. They cost me some money. Rutgers has Harper as well as Young, mathez, Johnson, Baker, etc. They can do some damage and have won in the Big.

Notes on GA Tech above.

Fla is obviously without Keyontae and sputtered a little early on because of. Scottie Lewis never lived up to his potential. They're decent, but not great. Aluma is solid, Nolley should've stayed.

 

[auror]

How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.

They can only win at home. The best team they beat away from home this year just fired their coach. Unfortunately the tournament is in Indiana instead of Michigan.

 

[HeGotGame]

Do any of you even watch any games out of conference? Please don't be betting......

Thanks for PSA. Don't do drugs too guys.

Why would anyone only watch BE games?

LSU is 125th in defense and that is going to be a major issue. Outside of Arkansas they did not beat anyone, (I think Tenny and Mizzu stink) lost their only decent non-con games (one to a A10 team the Bonnies just blew out), and they have the propensity to get blown out unless they are really on offensively. Playing Bama close was inevitable after losing to them by an average of 24 points in the two prior games this year.

Certainly could be a game where they come in and shoot lights out and win, but St. B is much more balanced and I will take that balance and

 

[XLCenterFan]

For all you bracket heads. I follow this guy heavy for golf betting and DK golf...there is no one better when it comes to incorporating data into sports picks.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Thanks for PSA. Don't do drugs too guys.

Why would anyone only watch BE games?

LSU is 125th in defense and that is going to be a major issue. Outside of Arkansas they did not beat anyone, (I think Tenny and Mizzu stink) lost their only decent non-con games (one to a A10 team the Bonnies just blew out), and they have the propensity to get blown out unless they are really on offensively. Playing Bama close was inevitable after losing to them by an average of 24 points in the two prior games this year.

Certainly could be a game where they come in and shoot lights out and win, but St. B is much more balanced and I will take that balance and

I'll give you a like for backing up your viewpoint, but disagree. Mizzou beat Oregon, Wich St and Illinois. Tenn beat Colorado and Kansas. I think you are way underestimating the SEC.

And the "playing them close" after getting blown out twice statement doesn't make sense,

I would not bet the farm on the Bonnies here, thats for sure. Try crypto instead. Good luck.

 

[HeGotGame]

I'll give you a like for backing up your viewpoint, but disagree. Mizzou beat Oregon, Wich St and Illinois. Tenn beat Colorado and Kansas. I think you are way underestimating the SEC.

And the "playing them close" after getting blown out twice statement doesn't make sense,

I would not bet the farm on the Bonnies here, thats for sure. Try crypto instead. Good luck.

No one said they are betting the farm on the Bonnies, I simply said I was surprised LSU was favored based on how unbalanced of a team they are on as compared to St. Bs. But obviously, you are betting the farm on LSU. Good thing they play the games and we can see who is right.

Also, Mizzu is luckily they got the one team who is playing as poorly as they are coming in with Oklahoma.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.

Shut up internet gasbag, no one listens to you anyway.

 

[CTBasketball]

Uhhhh, Trevion Williams would destroy us. North Texas isn't very good and should've lost to Bassey and WKU. You'd be an idiot to take North Texas. Purdue has beaten OSU, WISC, MSU and Minn with Robbins.

😉

 

[auror]

For all you bracket heads. I follow this guy heavy for golf betting and DK golf...there is no one better when it comes to incorporating data into sports picks.

Agree on Baylor being the best pick.

The thing about using leverage for all your picks is that it really only matters in larger pools. Accuracy is much more important in smaller pools (<20 people, which is the vast majority of pools out there).

 

[XLCenterFan]

Agree on Baylor being the best pick.

The thing about using leverage for all your picks is that it really only matters in larger pools. Accuracy is much more important in smaller pools (<20 people, which is the vast majority of pools out there).

Rick uses this same strategy for large-field Draft Kings golf tournaments and has success.
I usually enter a few NCAA pools. Some have around 10 people but a few have more, upwards of 150. Ill use the leverage plays in the larger fields, but I doubt I will have Gonzaga winning any of my brackets. I just don’t trust them.

 

[Jay-Bone]

How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.

Interesting that UCLA was much better with Jalen Hill playing. They also lost Chris Smith very early in the season. They still have Juzang (from Duke or UK), Jazquez and Tyger who is fun to watch, but I like MSU here based on UCLA sliding their last 4.

 

[Jay-Bone]

No one said they are betting the farm on the Bonnies, I simply said I was surprised LSU was favored based on how unbalanced of a team they are on as compared to St. Bs. But obviously, you are betting the farm on LSU. Good thing they play the games and we can see who is right.

Also, Mizzu is luckily they got the one team who is playing as poorly as they are coming in with Oklahoma.

Watford (former 5 star?) reminds me of a less athletic Sticks and is very hard to guard. Darius Days can bruise down low. But they do lack frontcourt depth without O'Neal. I'm not betting the farm, but I was surprised to see surprise on this line of all. They just almost beat a 2nd seed and beat a very hot 3rd seed. But obviously anything can happen in the tourney. We'll have a gentlemen's bet.

I'd be interested in @Hey Adrien! perspective on LSU, Bonnies and Mizzou. He knows all. Is the SEC that bad?

 

[Jay-Bone]

MSU had an identity crisis the last 3rd of the season and Izzo really shook up the lineup. They really struggled but then bounced back a little at the end. I think thats why they've had the question mark on their lines lately. Which MSU are you going to get?

This is what I was saying about MSU. They lost to Rutgers by 30. Same Rutgers some say don't deserve a pt edge over Clemson. Also got trounced by Maryland a little later by 18. They are an enigma for sure, be careful with this one.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Watford (former 5 star?) reminds me of a less athletic Sticks and is very hard to guard. Darius Days can bruise down low. But they do lack frontcourt depth without O'Neal. I'm not betting the farm, but I was surprised to see surprise on this line of all. They just almost beat a 2nd seed and beat a very hot 3rd seed. But obviously anything can happen in the tourney. We'll have a gentlemen's bet.

I'd be interested in @Hey Adrien! perspective on LSU, Bonnies and Mizzou. He knows all. Is the SEC that bad?

Thanks @Jay-Bone. I’m going with Bonnies over LSU.

People bash LSU’s defense but they actually defend the 3 pretty well (20th overall). On the flip side, the Bonnies are 298th in 3PA ratio, so they’ll focus on their inside-the-arc offensive strategy w/ Osun on the blocks and Lofton/Adaway as capable drivers/mid-range shooters.

Based on that, I like the Bonnies diverse defense (one big rim protector and 4 guards with size) to handle LSU’s pace.

For the Missouri game, I don’t have a great read on it, it’s a coin flip. Two very inconsistent teams. I personally like Missouri more, so I picked them just to root for them. Big fan of the Smiths.

 

[billybud]

I'm actually shocked Ga Tech is favored over Loyola. That's my favorite first round game.

GT's PG...Alvarado can be a game changer...he has shot 50% of his FG's...averages 15 points, 3 steals, 4 assists....

Bill Bradley once said, “An erratic point guard keeps both teams in the game.”

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I'm actually shocked Ga Tech is favored over Loyola. That's my favorite first round game.

Before the bracket reveal I pegged Loyola-Chi as a darkhorse E8 candidate.

However, the only reservation about L-C is if they face a team with an elite defensive big to disrupt Krutwig on the blocks. He’s their best scorer and facilitator.

So when I saw Georgia Tech in the matchup the first thing I thought of is Moses Wright, voted to the ACC all-defensive team and arguably the best defensive big in the ACC. I expect him to give Krutwig a real hard time and then Alvarado (arguably the best defensive guard in the ACC) will guard Norris all day.

With Wright/Alvarado defending L-C’s two offensive catalysts I just can’t see the Ramblers offense scoring enough to keep up with Tech’s electric offense.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Thanks @Jay-Bone. I’m going with Bonnies over LSU.

People bash LSU’s defense but they actually defend the 3 pretty well (20th overall). On the flip side, the Bonnies are 298th in 3PA ratio, so they’ll focus on their inside-the-arc offensive strategy w/ Osun on the blocks and Lofton/Adaway as capable drivers/mid-range shooters.

Based on that, I like the Bonnies diverse defense (one big rim protector and 4 guards with size) to handle LSU’s pace.

For the Missouri game, I don’t have a great read on it, it’s a coin flip. Two very inconsistent teams. I personally like Missouri more, so I picked them just to root for them. Big fan of the Smiths.

@HeGotGame It has been decreed. Maybe I'm just biased because I made a bunch off LSU covering the last 2 games. I now look forward to this matchup the most.

 

[Greathusky]

The love affairs with MSU and Loyola are based on past emotional performances not on reality.