Interesting Vegas Lines | The Boneyard

Interesting Vegas Lines

Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
4,901
Reaction Score
18,434
When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!
 
Joined
May 7, 2014
Messages
14,407
Reaction Score
29,046
When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!
Wait so you were surprised when reality didn’t meet your predictions/expectations?

Man sometimes I miss whaler lmao
 

CTBasketball

Former Owner of the Pizza Thread
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
Messages
9,671
Reaction Score
31,252
I see some other spreads in games that feature Big10 teams that are very large.

-8.5 for Purdue is laughable.
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
29,147
Reaction Score
45,610
When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!
I have LSU, Clemson, Loyola, Va Tech winning these games in my bracket.
 
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
1,857
Reaction Score
5,882
When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!
I am surprised that LSU and G Tech are favored
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
I'm actually shocked Ga Tech is favored over Loyola. That's my favorite first round game.
They're not. GA Tech beat FSU twice, VA & Clemson and won their last 9. They should be favored. Loyola got smoked By Wisc, their only P5 competition. Nasty draw for them.

1615840744538.png
 

XLCenterFan

CT, NE
Joined
Feb 25, 2018
Messages
3,532
Reaction Score
13,420
How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
I see some other spreads in games that feature Big10 teams that are very large.

-8.5 for Purdue is laughable.
Uhhhh, Trevion Williams would destroy us. North Texas isn't very good and should've lost to Bassey and WKU. You'd be an idiot to take North Texas. Purdue has beaten OSU, WISC, MSU and Minn with Robbins.
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.
MSU had an identity crisis the last 3rd of the season and Izzo really shook up the lineup. They really struggled but then bounced back a little at the end. I think thats why they've had the question mark on their lines lately. Which MSU are you going to get?
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
I am surprised that LSU and G Tech are favored
LSU has unlimited fire power with Thomas, Watford and Smart. Watford is a lot of fun to watch. Their D is suspect but they just beat Arkansas and barely lost to Alabama. -1.5 is a steal, although I don't know much about the Bonnies.
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
Do any of you even watch any games out of conference? Please don't be betting......
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
When the matchups are announced I try to predict what the Vegas lines will likely be. It's interesting how often the real line surprises. Often its name bias, or not understanding the strength of some lesser known teams.
Examples that were surprising to me this year:
8 LSU v 9 St Bonaventure ------LSU is only a 2 point favorite.
7 Clemson v 10 Rutgers ------- Rutgers is actually favored by 1 (?)
8 Loyola Chi v 9 GA Tech-------GA Tech (ACC Champ) is only a 2 point favorite,
7 Florida v 10 VA Tech----------FLA is only a 1 point favorite
While my brain says LSU/GA Tech/Clemson/FLA., my gut says go the opposite way!
LSU surprised me too. Not only 9 seed but slim line. Is someone hurt? they are not 7 and 6 seeds from Ala and Ark respectively.

Clemson seriously stalled mid-season. They cost me some money. Rutgers has Harper as well as Young, mathez, Johnson, Baker, etc. They can do some damage and have won in the Big.

Notes on GA Tech above.

Fla is obviously without Keyontae and sputtered a little early on because of. Scottie Lewis never lived up to his potential. They're decent, but not great. Aluma is solid, Nolley should've stayed.
 
Joined
Sep 6, 2011
Messages
12,088
Reaction Score
63,208
How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.
They can only win at home. The best team they beat away from home this year just fired their coach. Unfortunately the tournament is in Indiana instead of Michigan.
 
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
1,857
Reaction Score
5,882
Do any of you even watch any games out of conference? Please don't be betting......
Thanks for PSA. Don't do drugs too guys.

Why would anyone only watch BE games?

LSU is 125th in defense and that is going to be a major issue. Outside of Arkansas they did not beat anyone, (I think Tenny and Mizzu stink) lost their only decent non-con games (one to a A10 team the Bonnies just blew out), and they have the propensity to get blown out unless they are really on offensively. Playing Bama close was inevitable after losing to them by an average of 24 points in the two prior games this year.

Certainly could be a game where they come in and shoot lights out and win, but St. B is much more balanced and I will take that balance and
 

XLCenterFan

CT, NE
Joined
Feb 25, 2018
Messages
3,532
Reaction Score
13,420


For all you bracket heads. I follow this guy heavy for golf betting and DK golf...there is no one better when it comes to incorporating data into sports picks.
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
Thanks for PSA. Don't do drugs too guys.

Why would anyone only watch BE games?

LSU is 125th in defense and that is going to be a major issue. Outside of Arkansas they did not beat anyone, (I think Tenny and Mizzu stink) lost their only decent non-con games (one to a A10 team the Bonnies just blew out), and they have the propensity to get blown out unless they are really on offensively. Playing Bama close was inevitable after losing to them by an average of 24 points in the two prior games this year.

Certainly could be a game where they come in and shoot lights out and win, but St. B is much more balanced and I will take that balance and
I'll give you a like for backing up your viewpoint, but disagree. Mizzou beat Oregon, Wich St and Illinois. Tenn beat Colorado and Kansas. I think you are way underestimating the SEC.

And the "playing them close" after getting blown out twice statement doesn't make sense,

I would not bet the farm on the Bonnies here, thats for sure. Try crypto instead. Good luck.
 
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
1,857
Reaction Score
5,882
I'll give you a like for backing up your viewpoint, but disagree. Mizzou beat Oregon, Wich St and Illinois. Tenn beat Colorado and Kansas. I think you are way underestimating the SEC.

And the "playing them close" after getting blown out twice statement doesn't make sense,

I would not bet the farm on the Bonnies here, thats for sure. Try crypto instead. Good luck.
No one said they are betting the farm on the Bonnies, I simply said I was surprised LSU was favored based on how unbalanced of a team they are on as compared to St. Bs. But obviously, you are betting the farm on LSU. Good thing they play the games and we can see who is right.

Also, Mizzu is luckily they got the one team who is playing as poorly as they are coming in with Oklahoma.
 

Mr. Wonderful

Whistleblower
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
2,699
Reaction Score
8,055
How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.
Shut up internet gasbag, no one listens to you anyway.
 
Joined
Sep 6, 2011
Messages
12,088
Reaction Score
63,208


For all you bracket heads. I follow this guy heavy for golf betting and DK golf...there is no one better when it comes to incorporating data into sports picks.

Agree on Baylor being the best pick.

The thing about using leverage for all your picks is that it really only matters in larger pools. Accuracy is much more important in smaller pools (<20 people, which is the vast majority of pools out there).
 
Last edited:

XLCenterFan

CT, NE
Joined
Feb 25, 2018
Messages
3,532
Reaction Score
13,420
Agree on Baylor being the best pick.

The thing about using leverage for all your picks is that it really only matters in larger pools. Accuracy is much more important in smaller pools (<20 people, which is the vast majority of pools out there).
Rick uses this same strategy for large-field Draft Kings golf tournaments and has success.
I usually enter a few NCAA pools. Some have around 10 people but a few have more, upwards of 150. Ill use the leverage plays in the larger fields, but I doubt I will have Gonzaga winning any of my brackets. I just don’t trust them.
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
How about Michigan State. Only favored by 1 vs UCLA and my site has them at 150-1 to win it all. They beat Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan this year. I just had to pounce of those numbers.
Interesting that UCLA was much better with Jalen Hill playing. They also lost Chris Smith very early in the season. They still have Juzang (from Duke or UK), Jazquez and Tyger who is fun to watch, but I like MSU here based on UCLA sliding their last 4.
 
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
No one said they are betting the farm on the Bonnies, I simply said I was surprised LSU was favored based on how unbalanced of a team they are on as compared to St. Bs. But obviously, you are betting the farm on LSU. Good thing they play the games and we can see who is right.

Also, Mizzu is luckily they got the one team who is playing as poorly as they are coming in with Oklahoma.
Watford (former 5 star?) reminds me of a less athletic Sticks and is very hard to guard. Darius Days can bruise down low. But they do lack frontcourt depth without O'Neal. I'm not betting the farm, but I was surprised to see surprise on this line of all. They just almost beat a 2nd seed and beat a very hot 3rd seed. But obviously anything can happen in the tourney. We'll have a gentlemen's bet.

I'd be interested in @Hey Adrien! perspective on LSU, Bonnies and Mizzou. He knows all. Is the SEC that bad?
 
Last edited:
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
5,600
Reaction Score
5,717
MSU had an identity crisis the last 3rd of the season and Izzo really shook up the lineup. They really struggled but then bounced back a little at the end. I think thats why they've had the question mark on their lines lately. Which MSU are you going to get?
This is what I was saying about MSU. They lost to Rutgers by 30. Same Rutgers some say don't deserve a pt edge over Clemson. Also got trounced by Maryland a little later by 18. They are an enigma for sure, be careful with this one.

1615895655857.png
 

Online statistics

Members online
72
Guests online
2,746
Total visitors
2,818

Forum statistics

Threads
155,799
Messages
4,032,039
Members
9,865
Latest member
Sad Tiger


Top Bottom