IMHO, Bouknight should not be considering the NBA this year.

[bmayuc]

The question is, if the projects are accurate, would he become a lottery pick if he stayed another year? If yes, stay, if not, go.

No. This is insanely wrong.

There is no meaningful difference between being 11th(late lottery) and 21st(late first) that is worth losing a year's wage(and delaying an extension an extra year), risking injury or poor performance or whatever else. You just enter the draft.

Not sure why this is hard for people to get.

Now, if he has other goals/priorities that influence the raw $$ calculation(winning NC, etc) then that's a personal decision. But as a pure calculation of risk/reward from a $$ perspective if you are projected in the first round, you go. Lottery is a fake and meaningless construct and not sure why people's brains have turned into swiss cheese over this.

 

[Waquoit]

He became short and fat?

No, he got hurt as a junior. He was a 1st rounder if he left after the NC.

 

[Bongo Fury]

I don’t remember Hilton being that great junior year. I could be wrong.

 

[casual-yardin]

I don’t remember Hilton being that great junior year. I could be wrong.

Armstrong played 4 years. I'm not even sure why he was mentioned in the OP. There was no chance of him getting drafted after his Jr year.

 

[CL82]

No. This is insanely wrong.

There is no meaningful difference between being 11th(late lottery) and 21st(late first) that is worth losing a year's wage(and delaying an extension an extra year), risking injury or poor performance or whatever else. You just enter the draft.

Not sure why this is hard for people to get.

Now, if he has other goals/priorities that influence the raw $$ calculation(winning NC, etc) then that's a personal decision. But as a pure calculation of risk/reward from a $$ perspective if you are projected in the first round, you go. Lottery is a fake and meaningless construct and not sure why people's brains have turned into swiss cheese over this.

Because I heard Jim Calhoun say it multiple times over the years and bought into it unquestioningly. It sounds like you've looked at the numbers. Can you post the differentials? I am genuinely curious.

 

[bmayuc]

Look at this scale - there is no bonus for being in the lottery besides just a sliding scale of more money the first 3 years.



But to a 20 year old, the difference between 11 and 21(for example) amounts to 2 yr ~4.5m or 2 yr for 7 million. At 21 your family has $$ security still, and important to note the 3rd year options often are triggers for negotiating extensions so I don't even really take those into play here, but that would add another million delta.

Yes, its a couple million bucks, but keep in mind what you are gaining - you are now also adding another year to your earning potential, and you are a year closer to an extension, and you have reduced your risk of injury or poor performance to zero - you are getting paid NOW. Also going later means going to better teams with better development programs and less pressure.

I'm not saying that reasonable people can't look at those numbers and disagree - and when Calhoun made those comments in the late 90s early 00's the difference was greater in the payscale as everyone was not always slotted...

but in the modern environment - if you are projected in Rd 1 - unless there are mitigating factors, you just go.

 

[CL82]

Look at this scale - there is no bonus for being in the lottery besides just a sliding scale of more money the first 3 years.



But to a 20 year old, the difference between 11 and 21(for example) amounts to 2 yr ~4.5m or 2 yr for 7 million. At 21 your family has $$ security still, and important to note the 3rd year options often are triggers for negotiating extensions so I don't even really take those into play here, but that would add another million delta.

Yes, its a couple million bucks, but keep in mind what you are gaining - you are now also adding another year to your earning potential, and you are a year closer to an extension, and you have reduced your risk of injury or poor performance to zero - you are getting paid NOW. Also going later means going to better teams with better development programs and less pressure.

I'm not saying that reasonable people can't look at those numbers and disagree - and when Calhoun made those comments in the late 90s early 00's the difference was greater in the payscale as everyone was not always slotted...

but in the modern environment - if you are projected in Rd 1 - unless there are mitigating factors, you just go.

Interesting. Do you have the 1-10 numbers as well?

 

[JohnFSilver]

If you can get guaranteed money you take it.
You can either play in the nba or not. I don’t think another year helps you.

Why? First off, G League is a game changer for late first rounders and the stigma of going there is gone. Secondly, colleges don’t allow a ton of practice time.

Now. college is good because many players don’t know how to play under pressure. The AAU circuit has a lot of games, but not a ton on the li

Also, college is massively competitive. You see the kids in college, it really helps you evaluate them over second tier pro leagues.

Even second round picks are ok now. Look at tremor waters. He is on a 2-day again and essentially a developmental player getting over 100k a year.

College has massive benefits. There is No Zion without Zion going to Duke. That Marketing and discovery of players is huge.

Ja morant was a no name out of high school. College allows players to blossom.

 

[Lefty2one]

Because I heard Jim Calhoun say it multiple times over the years and bought into it unquestioningly. It sounds like you've looked at the numbers. Can you post the differentials? I am genuinely curious.

That was the case for many years, through most of Calhoun's tenure, but everything about the NBA has dramatically changed in the last 8-10 years. Now, it's essentially a game of "if you'll be a 1st rounder and get that guaranteed contract you should go".

There are completely average NBA players earning $10m a year. Hell, there are average NBA guys making $18m a year. You can now earn generational wealth by being an average NBA player, back then that wasn't the case.

If you are as gifted as Bouk you should leave so you can start the clock on your second contract as early as possible. A kid like Bouk, even if he's not a star, will be able to earn something like 4/$80m after his rookie deal.

 

[MDHuskFan]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

We are two games into the season. Can people just chill on transfer/draft speculation for a couple of months?

 

[BGesus4]

If you can get guaranteed money you take it.
You can either play in the nba or not. I don’t think another year helps you.

Why? First off, G League is a game changer for late first rounders and the stigma of going there is gone. Secondly, colleges don’t allow a ton of practice time.

Now. college is good because many players don’t know how to play under pressure. The AAU circuit has a lot of games, but not a ton on the li

Also, college is massively competitive. You see the kids in college, it really helps you evaluate them over second tier pro leagues.

Even second round picks are ok now. Look at tremor waters. He is on a 2-day again and essentially a developmental player getting over 100k a year.

College has massive benefits. There is No Zion without Zion going to Duke. That Marketing and discovery of players is huge.

Ja morant was a no name out of high school. College allows players to blossom.

Agree with everything except the Zion part. His legend was solidified in high school and he would've benefitted from not having had to do a year in college with an extra year of wear and tear on his knees without getting paid (or at least without getting paid a full NBA salary and endorsement contracts)

 

[Watchdog]

He literally scored 16 points in 5 minutes.

And Dan Cyrulik had a career night against St. John's in the first game at Gampel.

I watched the entire Dan Hurley postgame press conference after the UHart game and Dan Hurley sent multiple strong messages to and about JB.

The crux of it was: immaturity, relaxing, defense and realizing he must play a full 40.

I was at East Carolina this year and was blown away by his dunk off the wayward pass from JG and no one doubts he can be a very good offensive player wherever he is, but the NBA demands full-time effort and defense is way more important than some realize. Did MJ take plays off? Ask Scott Burrell.

Dan Hurley said, "we were hard on him in the postgame and we're going to coach the hell out of him over the next practices because we need him focused and playing a full 40 if we're to get where we want to be this year".

If he listens and takes Dan Hurley's coaching to heart he could be a first round pick, but take a look around the country at all the other players he's competing against for the first round.

 

[superjohn]

And Dan Cyrulik had a career night against St. John's in the first game at Gampel.

I watched the entire Dan Hurley postgame press conference after the UHart game and Dan Hurley sent multiple strong messages to and about JB.

The crux of it was: immaturity, relaxing, defense and realizing he must play a full 40.

I was at East Carolina this year and was blown away by his dunk off the wayward pass from JG and no one doubts he can be a very good offensive player wherever he is, but the NBA demands full-time effort and defense is way more important than some realize. Did MJ take plays off? Ask Scott Burrell.

Dan Hurley said, "we were hard on him in the postgame and we're going to coach the hell out of him over the next practices because we need him focused and playing a full 40 if we're to get where we want to be this year".

If he listens and takes Dan Hurley's coaching to heart he could be a first round pick, but take a look around the country at all the other players he's competing against for the first round.

He's a guaranteed first round pick, I think he's lottery.

 

[Watchdog]

Lack of maturity?
Like individually responding to all the people who have the opinion that you are wrong?

Hurley used the term "immaturity" multiple times in his postgame comments so why get on HuskyinSC for quoting the coach whose job it is to develop JB? If you didn't watch the interview you should because it's the most I've heard a coach publicly call out a player in years, especially a high profile player.

 

[Watchdog]

He's a guaranteed first round pick, I think he's lottery.

Let's hope so, for him and for the future of UConn basketball.

 

[bfs3]

There are completely average NBA players earning $10m a year. Hell, there are average NBA guys making $18m a year. You can now earn generational wealth by being an average NBA player, back then that wasn't the case.

^This. If you can convince a team you’re worth 10-20 minutes per game during your rookie contract you can make 8-18 million a year. You can retire at 30 with over 80 million in career earnings and with right moves set up your great grand children as Trust Fund kids.

 

[JohnFSilver]

^This. If you can convince a team you’re worth 10-20 minutes per game during your rookie contract you can make 8-18 million a year. You can retire at 30 with over 80 million in career earnings and with right moves set up your great grand children as Trust Fund kids.

Myles Turner aveages 12 ppg and 6 reb a game and is getting $18M per year over 3 years ($54M owed). Jeremy Lamb has 3 years, $31.5M deal and is a bench guard.

If Bouknight can have a Lamb career, and I thought Lamb would be better, he takes that hands down.

 

[HuskyFich]

Hurley used the term "immaturity" multiple times in his postgame comments so why get on HuskyinSC for quoting the coach whose job it is to develop JB? If you didn't watch the interview you should because it's the most I've heard a coach publicly call out a player in years, especially a high profile player.

I'm getting on him because its a borderline ridiculous take. Immaturity based off of his play? We're not talking about a senior, we're talking about a Wooden Award watch sophomore, 2 games into his 2nd season, while avg 19 ppg and 6rpg on 52% fg.

What more do ya'll want?

 

[Ratso]

let’s see how it plays out. uconn’s got a pretty solid schedule going forward

bouknight should avg 20 & 7 imo

 

[Adios]

The NBA clearly prefers to draft younger players. Staying will hurt his stock because it delays his development as an NBA player. So long, 4 year players.

 

[David 76]

No, he got hurt as a junior. He was a 1st rounder if he left after the NC.

I love KEA but at his size and athleticism staying in the NBA was going to be tough.
I agree that he would have done better leaving after his sophomore year. I was going for a joke about height and weight.
But I don't think he was going to have a long career there.
Outstanding college player with physical limitations in my book

 

[BleedHuskyBlu]

Oh shut up, if Bouk has the opportunity to be a first round pick which he likely will be unless for an injury or falling off a cliff we need him to move on. UConn needs to start getting players into the NBA. It’ll be better for us if he is a lottery pick or top 20 pick over staying with us another year

 

[Watchdog]

I'm getting on him because its a borderline ridiculous take. Immaturity based off of his play? We're not talking about a senior, we're talking about a Wooden Award watch sophomore, 2 games into his 2nd season, while avg 19 ppg and 6rpg on 52% fg.

What more do ya'll want?

I was quoting the head coach who pointedly called out JB several times and repeatedly using the words "immaturity, focus and playing a full game".
We all want JB to succeed and be drafted high but Dan Hurley apparently sees something lacking that he's trying to get out of JB and I don't recall a coach so strongly calling out his star player. Dan Hurley must believe he needs motivating or else JB will not be the player Dan Hurley and everyone here hopes he'll be this season. And that could damage his draft position.

 

[coloradohusky]

He's mocked in the first round - everywhere - right now.


Yeaaaaa.....no.

By your own logic, as of this moment it makes entire sense. Literally right now he is predicted to be a first-round pick by... everyone.

View attachment 61867View attachment 61868

google it. Right now. FIrst-rounder. So he doesn't need some major breakout, he just needs to perform at current expectations and then take his first ticket to millionaire-ville. In fact I would argue for his long-term success it makes more sense to be drafted into the middle/late stages. You land with a better organization with better chances of success and development and lower expectations.

Nothing bball wise to add to your post, but looking at that mock, imagine your name is David Duke and playing basketball in Brooklyn...smh...