The more I think about it, the XII lost two premier programs in Nebraska and TAMU. What other conference could survive those kinds of hits? Makes me think eventually Texas-Oklahoma will move to another power conference of their choosing, being proactive. Which would be bad for UCONN because the XII remains would become prime pickings. Just another thought.
Overall, I believe that UConn would be better off should the XII fall apart instead of the ACC in the quest for 18 or 20 members, which would likely be the target should 4 super conferences emerge.
If the XII fell apart, it appears that the B1G only has interest in 1) Kansas, 2) Oklahoma, and 3) Texas. The B1G for academic and money reasons would not be included to take each program’s little sister (Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech). That leaves between 1 and 3 additional openings for the B1G and the pool would likely be UConn, Missouri, ND, UNC, and VA. As I don’t see the logic to reducing to 3 conferences as 4 is a good number for a playoff structure and expanding past 20 members would be tough to manage, they maybe pressure to keep the ACC (or XII if flipped) in one piece and I do not think the ACC survives without the UNC/UVA duo. Thus, UConn would be competing with Missouri (if they view the B1G as a better fit that the SEC) and ND (who may finally have an interest, especially with Texas in place). That’s 3 schools for 1 to 3 openings.
If the ACC fell apart, it appears that the B1G would quickly grab UNC, UVA, and Georgia Tech. That also gets 17 schools. But, UConn may also face competition from Missouri (same as before), ND (if the ACC dies, ND is not going to the SEC, so the B1G is it), plus Duke (think of it as a stronger version of BC with no religious issues and much better basketball), Florida St (if the B1G wants Florida St, they are in this scenario), and Miami (same as Duke; but, for football instead of basketball). Pitt could also be in play; but, not with Penn State in place. BC would only get into the B1G is the B1G was desperate for ND and ND wanted its ugly sister in, too. Syracuse would be for the B1G and would use its ESPN connections to get in; but, they offer nothing that Rutgers or UConn can’t also offer. That would be 9 schools for 1 to 3 slots with Florida St almost a lock (B1G academics may not be happy; but, would be appeased with UVA and UNC in place) in my opinion.