Is that speculation or did you read something about it? Does the math work? Does half shares to the new teams result in existing teams maintaining the status quo? Feels off.
It was something I read, but has not yet been proven with a contract to back it up (and I can't find that report, so take it with a large grain of salt). Essentially the AAC, despite adding inventory, wisely declined to try to claim that the contract should be reopened (i.e. we got you more inventory, give us more money), the report was that in exchange for the extra inventory ESPN would not cut the payout to the league.. however they weren't going to increase the payout either. In order to keep the remaining 8 members whole, the 3 full shares remaining would be cut in half for the 6 new members.
“In 2019, UConn paid only $17 million to leave the AAC early, despite providing only 12 months’ notice.”
So UCONN left the AAC to join the Big East while its struggling football program went independent. Cincy Houston and UCF have all experienced pretty good football success and are leaving the AAC for a better conference. Not for nothing, but why in the world would the AAC negotiate the fees? These losses basically cut the AAC at the knees. Meanwhile the three programs leaving will take a short-term loss in order to move onto the Big 12 whose status is uncertain anyway. Craziness.
There’s no GOR in the AAC so if Aresco plays hardball they could just walk and let the American sue them. It’s better for everyone if they come to some kind of mutual agreement
Exactly right. And there's precedent with UConn only paying $17M for 12 months notice. If those three schools left and the conference tried to charge say 30M+ they'd never win that much in court.
If they want to use UCONN's $17 mill as precedent, I'd think a fair fee would be at least $34 mill easy. And if they don't want to pay it, stick around until 2024. UCONN Football sucked and was held over the barrel for $17 million. These three programs are doing very well and leaving for more money in a better conference. A lot more money, and leaving the AAC much worse off. It would be interesting to see how a court would weigh the effects.
I think you're struggling with how lawyering works. The lame duck three is leaving with 2 years notice, just a few months less than required by by-laws. The nominal exit fee and terms is 10MM and 27 month notice period. These three teams gave their notice in Sept 2021. 27 months would be December 2023. Instead, these teams are leaving in July 2023. How much power do you think this gives the AAC? The answer is they'd be entitled to some amount more than 10MM for leaving 5 months early.
It doesn't matter if it's only 5 months, it's a college season. 27 months really equals 36 months. How much will each program receive from the Big 12 each season? You have to take into account what it's worth for each program to leave early, and it's worth a lot more than $17 million. UCONN paid $17 million and left for bupkis. You also take into account how much it's hurting the AAC and that is more difficult to quantify because it is losing it's top 3 football brands and that is a killer for the conference. The financial analysis would indicate a much larger number than $17 million but yeah, I get it, they'll probably settle for much less.
How much it is worth to the exiting teams is 100% irrelevant. It's about how much harm it is to the conference to leaving 5 months early. Is the AAC going to receive a lesser TV payout that year because of that? You could argue that those three teams leaving may affect NCAA tournament credits or bowl money coming to the conference. But again, that's hard to value and future cast.
How much it is worth to the exiting teams is 100% Relevant, otherwise they wouldn't request to leave early. Heck, they will likely profit by leaving early so yes, it is worth it for them to leave and they should pay for the privilege. Those three teams leaving the AAC has a yuge cost to the AAC, in the hundreds of millions probably. I don't know how the networks value the conference but without Cincy, Houston and UCF, the AAC is just another G5 also-ran. Even a total $100 million exit fee isn't going to cover the cost of the damage.
Yes it's a huge loss for the AAC. But those teams are responsible for those damages. The only thing they're responsible for is LEAVING EARLIER than the by-laws state.
Shouldn't be long. Renewal is 2025, negotiations should start by early next year I would think.
It will definitely be interesting not only in terms of overall dollars but also how the newcomers get phased in.
www.si.com
It will definitely be interesting not only in terms of overall dollars but also how the newcomers get phased in.
This is the first article I've seen that gives details about the 4 year phase in period WVU & TCU went thru.
What's Behind the Big 12's Record Distribution of $426 Million; What's Next for the League
Bob Bowlsby and board chair Lawrence Schovanec acknowledged a "dip" in perception and financial "bumps" in the road, but both project a promising future for the Big 12.
Given that the existing schools are going to take a paycut when Texas & OU leave do they stretch out the ramp up period longer than 4 years for the newcomers? I would think that those schools will want to keep as much for them as they can.
Then the question becomes what's the minimum the newcomers willing to take to escape AAC purgatory?
