If UH (etal) want to be in Big 12 in 2023, AAC wants another $35 million…

[Hoophound]

I’m not so sure UConn will be going anywhere unless we see major realignment. Can UConn add enough value to a conference to increase the amount of money everyone takes home? Keep in mind that football drives the bus.

Look at Kansas. In theory, they should be an ideal candidate for Big Ten expansion. A blue blood basketball program. AAU Membership. A state that borders another Big Ten state. A state flagship university. Enhanced media market coverage in the Kansas City market. Yet, KU stands a snowballs chance in hell of ever being invited to the Big Ten. Even it’s blue blood basketball program cannot generate the money football brings in. KU would take from the $$ pie rather than contribute to it.

There's like 10-15 schools that create substantial value, everyone else is along for the ride. There are also other factors that come in like market size, demographics, airports and geographic compatibility. Ultimately, UConn has a brand name with 3 revenue sports that can generate ratings (most schools have one or two). We also have a rising hockey program that can help fill spots on the Big Ten Network and a good baseball program that would fill spots on the ACC Network. Aside from all that, we have a fanbase that will watch and pay for UConn content.

Kansas is valuable in one sport with potential in football (like us). However, they are also in Kansas. While Kansas is about 20% smaller in population than CT, it also lacks the easy access to major cities that CT has. This gives UConn much better growth potential. So, while I feel that KU and UConn should both be in good shape in the final college landscape, there is a lot to consider. The needs of each conference will be different based on their membership, strengths, sports offered and location. However, this debate goes to show how dumb this whole thing is. Based on recent accomplishments, loyal fanbases, academics and brand recognition, both schools should be a complete shoe in to be in a power conference long term.

 

[buddy]

There's like 10-15 schools that create substantial value, everyone else is along for the ride. There are also other factors that come in like market size, demographics, airports and geographic compatibility. Ultimately, UConn has a brand name with 3 revenue sports that can generate ratings (most schools have one or two). We also have a rising hockey program that can help fill spots on the Big Ten Network and a good baseball program that would fill spots on the ACC Network. Aside from all that, we have a fanbase that will watch and pay for UConn content.

Kansas is valuable in one sport with potential in football (like us). However, they are also in Kansas. While Kansas is about 20% smaller in population than CT, it also lacks the easy access to major cities that CT has. This gives UConn much better growth potential. So, while I feel that KU and UConn should both be in good shape in the final college landscape, there is a lot to consider. The needs of each conference will be different based on their membership, strengths, sports offered and location. However, this debate goes to show how dumb this whole thing is. Based on recent accomplishments, loyal fanbases, academics and brand recognition, both schools should be a complete shoe in to be in a power conference long term.

Kansas has the edge in that they are already in a P5 Conference. The demise of the Big 12 has been exaggerated in my opinion. The new schools will only get better. The fear that I have is that football playing schools that are in G5 Conferences will improve as well and leapfrog UConn in the rotation for P5 invite, like Cinci and UCF did.

 

[Hoophound]

Kansas has the edge in that they are already in a P5 Conference. The demise of the Big 12 has been exaggerated in my opinion. The new schools will only get better. The fear that I have is that football playing schools that are in G5 Conferences will improve as well and leapfrog UConn in the rotation for P5 invite, like Cinci and UCF did.

We got leapfrogged because we sucked. I truly believe we are about to head in the right direction and then accelerate quickly.

 

[Rufus]

I think Louisville is a better fit for the new Big 12 than the ACC. If the Big 12 ever adds Memphis, that would make for a nice geographical pod - WVU, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis.

I guess we will see what kind of media rights deal the new Big 12 gets in a couple years. I doubt it will be more than the ACC.

 

[UConnJim]

Kansas has the edge in that they are already in a P5 Conference. The demise of the Big 12 has been exaggerated in my opinion. The new schools will only get better. The fear that I have is that football playing schools that are in G5 Conferences will improve as well and leapfrog UConn in the rotation for P5 invite, like Cinci and UCF did.

The problem the schools in the New Big 12 will face is that they will have more losses than they had this past year. It's really simple math. If you take the conference records of the New Big 12 teams from 2021, it was 56-40 (I didn't include BYU), so that means New Big 12 schools (excluding BYU) will have 8 more conference losses. Look at Cincinnati. People were skeptical of their record because they played a weak schedule as their Sagarin opponent ranking was 71. The highest Sagarin ranked schedule for Big 12 schools was 30 and the average was 15. I think Cincinnati will have a tough time duplicating their success going forward.

If you look at the history of changing football conferences in the last 25 years +/-, there are few examples of sustained success. Florida State made a successful transition to the ACC and Penn State did to the Big 10, but there are many others that did not: Nebraska, Miami, Colorado, Pitt (ranked in the final polls once in the 9 years since joining the ACC), Louisville, ... Even Utah, a recent success, is 53-50 in the Pac 12 since joining. Did moving to new conferences improve football at BC, Syracuse, or Rutgers? No, it actually got harder to succeed.

 

[Waquoit]

Lew was right. Your logic is faulty. Is the equivalent of saying that you don’t need a college degree in order to become a doctor because you have a college degree and you’re not a doctor.

You mean we didn't get left behind? Honestly, no one told me. What happened to UConn is explained in the first 2 minutes of this clip.

 

[Waquoit]

I disagree. Had we upgraded earlier and established ourselves...

You can stop right there. You are arguing something that was never going to happen at that time. The only reason it happened at all was because of the Pats deal/no deal.

 

[CL82]

You mean we didn't get left behind? Honestly, no one told me. What happened to UConn is explained in the first 2 minutes of this clip.

No, but you already knew the answer that question. Once again, your reply isn’t in good faith.

 

[Slasher]

The problem the schools in the New Big 12 will face is that they will have more losses than they had this past year. It's really simple math. If you take the conference records of the New Big 12 teams from 2021, it was 56-40 (I didn't include BYU), so that means New Big 12 schools (excluding BYU) will have 8 more conference losses. Look at Cincinnati. People were skeptical of their record because they played a weak schedule as their Sagarin opponent ranking was 71. The highest Sagarin ranked schedule for Big 12 schools was 30 and the average was 15. I think Cincinnati will have a tough time duplicating their success going forward.

If you look at the history of changing football conferences in the last 25 years +/-, there are few examples of sustained success. Florida State made a successful transition to the ACC and Penn State did to the Big 10, but there are many others that did not: Nebraska, Miami, Colorado, Pitt (ranked in the final polls once in the 9 years since joining the ACC), Louisville, ... Even Utah, a recent success, is 53-50 in the Pac 12 since joining. Did moving to new conferences improve football at BC, Syracuse, or Rutgers? No, it actually got harder to succeed.

I'm not sure I understand this argument at all. Yes, if teams play each other, someone has to lose? Three of those teams were in the same conference last year and it applied. Both lost to Cincinnati. Are you arguing that Cincinnati likely won't finish 13-0? That's pretty obvious, as they'd never done it in their history before.

 

[UConnJim]

I'm not sure I understand this argument at all. Yes, if teams play each other, someone has to lose? Three of those teams were in the same conference last year and it applied. Both lost to Cincinnati. Are you arguing that Cincinnati likely won't finish 13-0? That's pretty obvious, as they'd never done it in their history before.

The new teams going to the Big 12 had great records last year and so did some of the remaining Big 12 schools. Mathematically some of those teams would have had more losses if they all were in the same conference. Will Cincy be looked at as a top football school and attract fans and recruits if they start having 9-4, 8-5, or 7-6 years? And Cincy is a geographic outlier in the Big 12 and over time I think it will be an issue.

 

[buddy]

The problem the schools in the New Big 12 will face is that they will have more losses than they had this past year. It's really simple math. If you take the conference records of the New Big 12 teams from 2021, it was 56-40 (I didn't include BYU), so that means New Big 12 schools (excluding BYU) will have 8 more conference losses. Look at Cincinnati. People were skeptical of their record because they played a weak schedule as their Sagarin opponent ranking was 71. The highest Sagarin ranked schedule for Big 12 schools was 30 and the average was 15. I think Cincinnati will have a tough time duplicating their success going forward.

If you look at the history of changing football conferences in the last 25 years +/-, there are few examples of sustained success. Florida State made a successful transition to the ACC and Penn State did to the Big 10, but there are many others that did not: Nebraska, Miami, Colorado, Pitt (ranked in the final polls once in the 9 years since joining the ACC), Louisville, ... Even Utah, a recent success, is 53-50 in the Pac 12 since joining. Did moving to new conferences improve football at BC, Syracuse, or Rutgers? No, it actually got harder to succeed.

Harder to succeed, but bringing home a much larger pay check win or lose.

 

[Slasher]

The new teams going to the Big 12 had great records last year and so did some of the remaining Big 12 schools. Mathematically some of those teams would have had more losses if they all were in the same conference. Will Cincy be looked at as a top football school and attract fans and recruits if they start having 9-4, 8-5, or 7-6 years? And Cincy is a geographic outlier in the Big 12 and over time I think it will be an issue.

Yeah I mean I understand your point I just don't think that matters. Those conferences that play 9 conference games obviously will have more losses than playing one more cupcake. I think fans would rather watch Oklahoma State than Tulane and Tulsa.

I don't see how the geography matters at all for Cincinnati. They currently play 2 teams in Texas (SMU, Houston), 1 team in Oklahoma (Tulsa), 2 teams in Florida (UCF, USF), and teams in Louisiana (Tulane), Maryland (Navy), North Carolina (ECU), and eastern PA (Temple). The closest opponent is Memphis which is more than a 7 hour drive away.

Now they'll play 4 teams in Texas (Baylor, Houston, Texas Tech, TCU), 1 in Oklahoma (OSU), 1 in Florida, 2 in Kansas, 1 in Iowa, 1 in Utah (yes that's far), and West Virginia which is far closer than Memphis. The AAC was a wide flung as any conference out there already, now they'll get 30M+ a year vs under 10M with the AAC.

 

[CL82]

Yeah I mean I understand your point I just don't think that matters. Those conferences that play 9 conference games obviously will have more losses than playing one more cupcake. I think fans would rather watch Oklahoma State than Tulane and Tulsa.

I don't see how the geography matters at all for Cincinnati. They currently play 2 teams in Texas (SMU, Houston), 1 team in Oklahoma (Tulsa), 2 teams in Florida (UCF, USF), and teams in Louisiana (Tulane), Maryland (Navy), North Carolina (ECU), and eastern PA (Temple). The closest opponent is Memphis which is more than a 7 hour drive away.

Now they'll play 4 teams in Texas (Baylor, Houston, Texas Tech, TCU), 1 in Oklahoma (OSU), 1 in Florida, 2 in Kansas, 1 in Iowa, 1 in Utah (yes that's far), and West Virginia which is far closer than Memphis. The AAC was a wide flung as any conference out there already, now they'll get 30M+ a year vs under 10M with the AAC.

Will they get 30 million though? I thought the AAC teams were taking half shares.

 

[Rufus]

I think I remember seeing that the new Big 12 schools will receive partial payouts the first two years and full payouts in Year 3. Year 3 is also when both UT and OU will be gone for sure and the start of a new media rights contract, so who knows what a full share will be at that time.

 

[Waquoit]

No, but you already knew the answer that question. Once again, your reply isn’t in good faith.

Ending up as an indy in FB after 20 years means we didn't get left behind? Of course we got left behind.

 

[CL82]

Ending up as an indy in FB after 20 years means we didn't get left behind? Of course we got left behind.

But that really has nothing to do with Lew’s point of the importance of football to conference realignment and moving up to more profitable conferences. I know you understand that the most profitable conferences are the P5 which all offer D1 football.

Again, this is just another example of your arguing in bad faith. It really is disappointing. I would hope for better.

 

[ZooCougar]

Kansas has the edge in that they are already in a P5 Conference. The demise of the Big 12 has been exaggerated in my opinion. The new schools will only get better. The fear that I have is that football playing schools that are in G5 Conferences will improve as well and leapfrog UConn in the rotation for P5 invite, like Cinci and UCF did.

The Big 12 is now Big East football. The power conference that everyone wants to leave. That alone limits them.

They are already leapfrogging us. Nothing to be afraid of.

 

[freescooter]

I actually don’t think UConn would be certain to take a big 12 offer. Without Oklahoma and Texas it’s not as stable a conference and geographically it is a miserable fit for us. Keep in mind that new members aren’t getting a full share. But, yeah, we would jump at either the big 10 or the ACC not that those offers are forthcoming.

Yeah, they want to keep getting $5.5 million, not $40 million. They want to keep playing Indy football with no bowl tie-ins. If we got a B12 invite, UConn would be There in a New York minutes.

 

[CL82]

Yeah, they want to keep getting $5.5 million, not $40 million. They want to keep playing Indy football with no bowl tie-ins. If we got a B12 invite, UConn would be There in a New York minutes.

If they got 40 million, probably, but right now the deal is they get maybe 15 million. They’d have to pay 30 million to get that 15 million and then they’d have to pay millions more annually in travel costs. All that for the privilege of being in the most unstable P5 conference. It doesn’t sound very attractive does it?

Now if any other P5 conference, other than the Pac 12, were the offer, sure they make the move.

 

[buddy]

The Big 12 is now Big East football. The power conference that everyone wants to leave. That alone limits them.

They are already leapfrogging us. Nothing to be afraid of.

You cannot compare the Old Big East with the Big 12. The old big east was a fractured conference with football and non football schools. All Big 12 schools are Div I football schools and have much in common. The football schools and the non football schools in the old BE had little in common, and it is still that way today with UConn as an outlier in many ways. The only 2 div 1 football schools left behind in CR from the old Big East are UConn and USF. There is really nowhere for the remaining Big 12 schools to go, and they are getting a pretty good paycheck.

 

[BigTenFan]

You mean we didn't get left behind? Honestly, no one told me. What happened to UConn is explained in the first 2 minutes of this clip.

Great clip from Bloomington IN

 

[Slasher]

The 4 new schools are getting 18-19M a year until 2025. Then they all get full shares. They'll easily get 30M in 2025 when you consider more than 10M a year is from the playoff, bowls, and NCAA tournament credits.

 

[ZooCougar]

You cannot compare the Old Big East with the Big 12. The old big east was a fractured conference with football and non football schools. All Big 12 schools are Div I football schools and have much in common. The football schools and the non football schools in the old BE had little in common, and it is still that way today with UConn as an outlier in many ways. The only 2 div 1 football schools left behind in CR from the old Big East are UConn and USF. There is really nowhere for the remaining Big 12 schools to go, and they are getting a pretty good paycheck.

Sure I can. Among the Big East all sports schools nobody wanted to stay. And that’s exactly what the Big 12 is now.

 

[uchusky32]

If they got 40 million, probably, but right now the deal is they get maybe 15 million. They’d have to pay 30 million to get that 15 million and then they’d have to pay millions more annually in travel costs. All that for the privilege of being in the most unstable P5 conference. It doesn’t sound very attractive does it?

Now if any other P5 conference, other than the Pac 12, were the offer, sure they make the move.

I hear what you're saying 82. Would rather wait and be a backfill in the ACC. That said I think the ACC and PAC or the most unstable now as they have institutions that have value to B10 and SEC. Really don't think there is any value left in B12 for those 2 top conferences.

 

[buddy]

Sure I can. Among the Big East all sports schools nobody wanted to stay. And that’s exactly what the Big 12 is now.

I disagree. Cinci, UCF,and Houston are thrilled to be there. The other schools have no where to go, except possibly Kansas, and they can be replaced in a heartbeat.