Ice and Jana....what am I missing?

[PvP]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

 

[PacoSwede]

geno doesn't agree. good enough for me, sorry.

i think geno sees value in ice that you don't.

BTW, jana contributes mucho as a sub off the bench. what's the problem?

 

[Bone Dog]

There may still be a lingering conditioning issue. Jana may not have 30 minute stamina yet.

 

[sno-cat]

What you appear to be missing is that Geno takes into account much more than pure statistics.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Jana doesn't spread the floor. Ice does. Keep in mind there are times when both play at the same time. Who are those Ice assists to?

 

[HopJim]

Two true bigs-nice problem to have!
When the game is close, Jana is difficult to have in due to her tendency to foul. Her interior offensive moves seem to get better game by game but are still limited. As you might expect from someone coming back from a major injury, she moves slower to the ball than Ice. Geno appears to be doing what you would expect. See how the match ups are developing and make substitute decisions accordingly. Particularly against top teams, why would you make decisions based on other factors such as stat sheets, some of which at this stage of the season are skewed by games against 2nd level teams.

 

[jdote33]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

Interesting post. I actually don't think it's fair to compare the production since the competition is so different. Jana a lot of times is playing the second or third string in the midst of blowouts in the 4th quarter. I don't want to take anything away from Jana, she's shown some good things. And she's a solid part of the rotation. I actually thought before the season she would be the starter. Ice imo just looks a bit more fluid. She's not putting up big stats but she's doing all the little things. I think Geno has done a good job balancing the two.

 

[ConnManFan]

You are underestimating the value of your post being able to step out to the three point line to be a 16.7 percent shooter.

 

[AzzisBraids]

Say what you will but Ice got Cochran out early in the Louisville game and by the time she returned the game was essentially over. Her ability to draw fouls alone is great and Jana benefitting from coming in to a front line Ice already melted a bit.

 

[Dogdude]

coming in to a front line Ice already melted a bit.

I see what you did there...Ice...melted...good one.

 

[diggerfoot]

In my previous response to this you did not seem to understand what I was saying. Here is one last attempt.

Both shoot at a similar percentage which is respectable but not great for posts, who often lead the team in shooting percentages. If this this were true for UConn, that their merely decent percentages for a post were still the best or second best on the team, then you might favor the one you are calling more aggressive.

But that is not nearly the case here. Inserting either Brady or El-Affy with what has been the most recent starters makes them only the fourth best shooters percentage wise, and both trail the two best shooters by substantial margins. You DO NOT want the fourth best shooter in the line up to be the most aggressive one, you want the better facilitator of the two.

 

[DefenseBB]

Say what you will but Ice got Cochran out early in the Louisville game and by the time she returned the game was essentially over. Her ability to draw fouls alone is great and Jana benefitting from coming in to a front line Ice already melted a bit.

Huh? Let’s address some of these points:
Cochran in her 5 years of WCBB has alway had foul trouble issues including 3 games this year against UCLA, Colorado and Oklahoma where she fouled out. Ice did not create those fouls. Ice has zero back to the basket moves and consistently uses a fall away jumper as her in the paint move. Her outside shooting isn’t just “suspect”-it’s downright terrible so “spreading the floor” isn’t going to work against smart teams who will dare Ice to shoot.
Jana is still learning the elite competition game and she is improving but Ice deserves to start…for now. Ultimately Jana will be the post player and maybe Ice’s shooting will improve to warrant playing her at the same time.

 

[oldhusky]

I am mostly in agreement with Pvp. Looking at any kind of overall statistical analysis like PER (player efficiency rating) there is no comparison and it is not even vaguely close. Having said that it is probably still a little bit early to be conclusive, but the evidence is piling up.

Personally I suspect Geno has a little preference for the more experienced player, the player that is more of a consistent known quantity, and I think he has commented favorably regarding Ice's position defense. I also think Geno uses playing time as a teaching incentive.

Ice probably has far less upside, but makes fewer mistakes and may fit with the other stars as a complimentary player. Jana might be the better player, and Geno probably knows that, but he wants to rein in the mistakes before he elevates Jana to the starter. In time I think that will happen, the difference in stats and upside is just to much to ignore.

 

[Just.A.Fan]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

You always have a tendency to overlook some rather important items. Many have been pointed out above. Here's a few more: Ice starts the game and plays an entirely different set of minutes against the starters of the opposing team. Many of Jana's minutes come when the game is already out of reach and the opposing team members know it. So the big factor being overlooked in your comparison is the minutes played when the game is on the line.

 

[Bone Dog]

Just one last observation: Ice is playing out of position. She is a natural 4 and thinks of herself that way. In effect, Geno and Jamelle are teaching her a new position, and it’s a better fit for her given her shooting percentage. If I project forward to next year, we may see more of the twin-towers sets that we catch glimpses of now, with Jana, Ice and Gandy rotating through the two post positions. Some of our greatest teams did that, and Geno knows how to win that way. As long as they’re mobile and run the court well, this could be a viable lineup. And Jana and Ice are mobile.

 

[donalddoowop]

Jana has been playing during prime time in a number of recent games, not just at the end of games. Also, she has cut down on her fouling.

 

[Zonepress]

I go by the eye test and Ice is clearly the more effective
Player
Worth mentioning that in the Louisville game they did play a few minutes together
Was I believe in q-4 when game was not in doubt
So it may mean nothing or perhaps GA was
Looking to see how they played together

 

[hookshot]

Jana has been playing during prime time in a number of recent games, not just at the end of games. Also, she has cut down on her fouling.

So you're saying that she is not as disappointing as she was, and that is encouraging, and she is being given a chance to further work on and improve her game, which could have a high ceiling, but to my eye (and apparently Geno's), Ice is the more reliable player right now

 

[JRRRJ]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

Tossing in some more data to chew on -- a simple efficiency number for each player. It represents good things (pts, RB, etc.) minus bad things (TO, missed shots) per game. No attempt to determine the likely cost of each bad thing, not including fouls, not taking opponent into consideration, etc., etc. Those things (and some other useful data) would require parsing the play-by-play listings and I am successfully resisting that so far.

Note that the values are on a per-game basis, not per-40.

The actual formula: = ((Pts+TRB+Asst+Stl+Blk) – ((FGA-FGM)+(FTA-FTM)+TO))

if this looks like it could be useful, let me know whether you'd like me to leave it in the spreadsheet and/or add it to the per-40 grid as well.

Have fun.

The Huskies to date with my efficiency value in the far-right column:

 

[ctkaiser]

I think Geno is an eye test guy more than a stats guy. I'm just really glad we have all these players for him to pick and choose. Ice seems like she has a nice feel for the two player game with Sara. I'm not going to statistically break down minutes and stats. You guys can have fun with that.

 

[Dugway]

Too an extent, I absolutely agree with the initial post. What I see is that Ice has more experience, but that is about all she has over Jana. Frankly, Ice is inexperienced as well, she played last year while Jana was redshirted, but didn't really get all that many minutes; we had Aaliyah Edwards!

So, they both are on learning curves and both are getting better. From a mental perspective, from a confidence level, you listen to Ice in an interview and she will tell the reporter that she is the experienced player! I absolutely love it! 'I'm the upperclassmen now, I am filling the leadership roll, I am consistent in my play, such and such is doing great given that she is just a freshman without my experiences, ..."

As far as which is better, statistically? PvP in post #1 is correct, but there are many things that statistics simply do not tell the full story.

Comments:
I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role. - There really is no 'we' in this, only Geno's opinion counts.

There may still be a lingering conditioning issue. -This comment was regarding Jana, and I would simply state that Ice's offseason conditioning appears to have been extensive, and very productive for her. I think she does have a step on Jana. I don't know how it goes in practice; if you put them shoulder to shoulder against each other under the hoop, jump for shots, rebounds, and/or defense rejecting the others??? As a footrace down the court after a solid 20-min of play, I would say Ice is going to win that race most every time.

When the game is close, Jana is difficult to have in due to her tendency to foul. -Yes, in comparison to Ashlynn's fouls, but this is not at all true in comparison to Ice. Jana foul's less than Ice does. Jana hasn't been shooting free throws worth a dang; that is her Achillies heal.

As you might expect from someone coming back from a major injury, she moves slower to the ball than Ice. -Moves slower, as in collecting rebounds? Jana has almost double the rebounds and the points when you factor in the minutes played.

Post # 13. -Reading through this now, I should have just cut and pasted @oldhusky word for word and not wasted anyone's time in my typing this post...

 

[Zarathustra]

Tossing in some more data to chew on -- a simple efficiency number for each player. It represents good things (pts, RB, etc.) minus bad things (TO, missed shots) per game. No attempt to determine the likely cost of each bad thing, not including fouls, not taking opponent into consideration, etc., etc. Those things (and some other useful data) would require parsing the play-by-play listings and I am successfully resisting that so far.

Note that the values are on a per-game basis, not per-40.

The actual formula: = ((Pts+TRB+Asst+Stl+Blk) – ((FGA-FGM)+(FTA-FTM)+TO))

if this looks like it could be useful, let me know whether you'd like me to leave it in the spreadsheet and/or add it to the per-40 grid as well.

Have fun.

The Huskies to date with my efficiency value in the far-right column:
View attachment 105372

Dear JRRRJ, Keep the "stats" and the explanations coming. A question: if you
include the Efficiency rating will it be for the most recent game? I always look
for the rating on the box score stuff and it is just one of any number of things
that I like to "peruse". My favorite "stat" however is the "eye test"...watching
the game. Since I look at "" in every game I don't need it in your summary, but I do appreciate these additional ways of enjoying the HUSKIES. THANKS, Z

 

[PvP]

Tossing in some more data to chew on -- a simple efficiency number for each player. It represents good things (pts, RB, etc.) minus bad things (TO, missed shots) per game. No attempt to determine the likely cost of each bad thing, not including fouls, not taking opponent into consideration, etc., etc. Those things (and some other useful data) would require parsing the play-by-play listings and I am successfully resisting that so far.

Note that the values are on a per-game basis, not per-40.

The actual formula: = ((Pts+TRB+Asst+Stl+Blk) – ((FGA-FGM)+(FTA-FTM)+TO))

if this looks like it could be useful, let me know whether you'd like me to leave it in the spreadsheet and/or add it to the per-40 grid as well.

Have fun.

The Huskies to date with my efficiency value in the far-right column:
View attachment 105372

I think that is very valuable and interestingly seems to bear out how many of us I think might assign such a value just watching the games. You are a great contributor to this site without question!

 

[HuskylnSC]

Why am I remembering a Genoism, "It doesn't matter if you score 20 points if your opponent scores 30."
Just thinkin'

 

[Vowelguy]

Compare Pam Webber's stats vs Nykesha's in 1995. I'm sure Sales's were much better. And yet Pam started.