Hurley mentions Possible Starting Lineup Change



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@UConnStats is this legit?
No it is not. Advanced stats love Bouknight, so he is technically an improvement over anyone on the team. However, Vital is graded as one of the top 3 players on the team, so would do better to give Bouk someone else’s minutes.
 
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Hurley benched him last year....and we have more talent this year.
People forget this. Hurley doesn't want to lose the guy, he's the senior and he came into the season thinking he's the leader. But he's only the 4th best guard on the team today. He's going to lose the spot soon enough.
 
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No it is not. Advanced stats love Bouknight, so he is technically an improvement over anyone on the team. However, Vital is graded as one of the top 3 players on the team, so would do better to give Bouk someone else’s minutes.
Bouknight’s advanced stats are insanely good, but it’s not a material enough sample size to matter much yet. Still, he’s clearly extremely talented and deserves more minutes than he’s getting so far.
 

Stainmaster

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People forget this. Hurley doesn't want to lose the guy, he's the senior and he came into the season thinking he's the leader. But he's only the 4th best guard on the team today. He's going to lose the spot soon enough.
I think you’re overrating at least two other guards in comparison to him. Yeah yeah, he played here during an era where the team achieved poor results. Get over it.
 

RipCity

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I’m not going to use the word “best” because it’s subject to opinion

Bouknight is the most talented player on the team in my eyes, but Vital is the most productive by a mile considering offense, defense, and rebounding. You need both of them playing big minutes. Find someone else to take from unless one of those two are having an off night
 
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No, I wouldn’t say so. Vital has found a way to be efficient the last two years.

Last year was his best as he posted his career high in TS% (61.2%, 134th in the country). The year before, it was more due to getting to the line and limiting TO.

In 2018, he was the team’s most efficient player and he trailed only Polley last year with a significantly higher usage rate.

Rebound%
Vital: 5.5% Off, 21.8% Def
Bouknight: 12.2% Off, 12.2% Def

Vital is the team’s best defensive rebounder, and the team is 207th in the country in that category, meaning they can use every board they can get.

Bouknight’s offensive rebounding is awesome but in its current state, probably unsustainable and he’s much worse on the defensive glass.

Defensively, Bouknight is longer and more athletic, but Vital is 5th in the country in Stl% (a ridiculous 5.9%) and undoubtedly understands Hurley’s scheme better.

IMO, Bouknight would be taking more minutes from Polley than Vital when he plays more. Polley is efficient as a scorer, but as a low volume player he can disappear for stretches while giving you very little in any other category. But that’s just my guess.
CV's TS% this year is 51%...mostly due to poor shot selection. He's a senior...this shouldn't be an issue any longer. BA is 66%, TP 61%, Bouk is 70%. All much more efficient.

As for rebounding, it's not the volume, it's more about positioning. He's not battling bigs for rebounds, he's often on the weak side and grabbing uncontested boards.

The reason to play Bouk over CV is less about rebounds and more about shooting/scoring. Bouk has a better plus/minus than CV--which means he contributes more to winning. Let CV be the microwave and feast on 2nd teamers.
 
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CV's TS% this year is 51%...mostly due to poor shot selection. He's a senior...this shouldn't be an issue any longer. BA is 66%, TP 61%, Bouk is 70%. All much more efficient.

As for rebounding, it's not the volume, it's more about positioning. He's not battling bigs for rebounds, he's often on the weak side and grabbing uncontested boards.

The reason to play Bouk over CV is less about rebounds and more about shooting/scoring. Bouk has a better plus/minus than CV--which means he contributes more to winning. Let CV be the microwave and feast on 2nd teamers.
Bouknight’s sample size is too small to extrapolate like that. He’s clearly very good but will not stay at his impossibly high TS%. Let’s see where he ends up when his numbers become more stable before trying to plan out minutes for the rest of the season. I get where your head is at, but you can’t look at solely this year in a vacuum with just a 7 game sample.

There’s no sense justifying CV’s rebounding numbers either. He’s grabbing them, our other guards aren’t, and other teams would grab even more offensive rebounds with him not on the floor. That matters.

CV, Bouknight, and Adams have been our best 3 players this year and it’s really not all that close. I don’t think any of them should be losing minutes. I don’t know why people always default to Vital losing minutes whenever someone performs well.
 
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Lers just move Polley to the beach as that is where it makes the best sense when we need shooting off the bench. I just can't see Polley being able to handle opposing SF's as the competition gets better once in conference play. He should only play limited minutes at the 3 and mostly back up Akok at the 4.
 

fleudslipcon

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No, I wouldn’t say so. Vital has found a way to be efficient the last two years.

Last year was his best as he posted his career high in TS% (61.2%, 134th in the country). The year before, it was more due to getting to the line and limiting TO.

In 2018, he was the team’s most efficient player and he trailed only Polley last year with a significantly higher usage rate.

Rebound%
Vital: 5.5% Off, 21.8% Def
Bouknight: 12.2% Off, 12.2% Def

Vital is the team’s best defensive rebounder, and the team is 207th in the country in that category, meaning they can use every board they can get.

Bouknight’s offensive rebounding is awesome but in its current state, probably unsustainable and he’s much worse on the defensive glass.

Defensively, Bouknight is longer and more athletic, but Vital is 5th in the country in Stl% (a ridiculous 5.9%) and undoubtedly understands Hurley’s scheme better.

IMO, Bouknight would be taking more minutes from Polley than Vital when he plays more. Polley is efficient as a scorer, but as a low volume player he can disappear for stretches while giving you very little in any other category. But that’s just my guess.
Where does the team rank in causing TOs? Do statistics for defensive rebounds factor in turnovers?
 
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Bouknight’s sample size is too small to extrapolate like that. He’s clearly very good but will not stay at his impossibly high TS%. Let’s see where he ends up when his numbers become more stable before trying to plan out minutes for the rest of the season. I get where your head is at, but you can’t look at solely this year in a vacuum with just a 7 game sample.

There’s no sense justifying CV’s rebounding numbers either. He’s grabbing them, our other guards aren’t, and other teams would grab even more offensive rebounds with him not on the floor. That matters.

CV, Bouknight, and Adams have been our best 3 players this year and it’s really not all that close. I don’t think any of them should be losing minutes. I don’t know why people always default to Vital losing minutes whenever someone performs well.
Sure Bouk's sample size is small, but if we are correcting, then remove the 7 steals that Vital got vs Sacred Heart and suddenly he's not longer tops in the nation.

Bouk passes the eye test and the advanced metrics test. He makes smarter decisions with the ball and is only a Frosh.

I'm not suggesting that Vital be removed from the rotation, just that the guy plays the most mpg and achieves statistics, but that's not a fair way to compare. Personally I think he plays more like a frosh than a senior and while he does do good things, let him do them vs 2nd teams and let Bouk start. We've done the same with plenty of talented guards over the years. No shame in being the microwave and playing 25+ mins off the bench.
 
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Sure Bouk's sample size is small, but if we are correcting, then remove the 7 steals that Vital got vs Sacred Heart and suddenly he's not longer tops in the nation.

Bouk passes the eye test and the advanced metrics test. He makes smarter decisions with the ball and is only a Frosh.

I'm not suggesting that Vital be removed from the rotation, just that the guy plays the most mpg and achieves statistics, but that's not a fair way to compare. Personally I think he plays more like a frosh than a senior and while he does do good things, let him do them vs 2nd teams and let Bouk start. We've done the same with plenty of talented guards over the years. No shame in being the microwave and playing 25+ mins off the bench.
Fair enough. I’d rather take some minutes from the players who are actually underperforming like Gilbert or Carlton (more small ball with Akok at the 5) and some from Polley too personally. The depth is a good problem to have. Hopefully Hurley will be comfortable in feeling out who has the hot hand too.
 
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Fair enough. I’d rather take some minutes from the players who are actually underperforming like Gilbert or Carlton (more small ball with Akok at the 5) and some from Polley too personally. The depth is a good problem to have. Hopefully Hurley will be comfortable in feeling out who has the hot hand too.
Again Gilbert underperforming? Last 2 games not even close but I guess it's better to go by the history then hope he does finally get it according to the 2 most recent games? LOL weird around here regarding AG.
 
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Again Gilbert underperforming? Last 2 games not even close but I guess it's better to go by the history then hope he does finally get it according to the 2 most recent games? LOL weird around here regarding AG.
I mean there's no other way of putting it. He's been worse than expected. Not to say that won't change, but if it doesn't, then it's fair to play him fewer than 35 minutes. In fact, his last 2 games he played 27 and 24 minutes, so that might be his sweet spot. No shame in that, and it'll help keep him healthy.

Where does the team rank in causing TOs? Do statistics for defensive rebounds factor in turnovers?
We're 53rd in defensive TO% and we've given away 22nd lowest TO% offensively. Turnover margin actually might be the team's biggest strength so far (2nd chance points big too).

To answer your second question, no they don't impact each other.
 
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Again Gilbert underperforming? Last 2 games not even close but I guess it's better to go by the history then hope he does finally get it according to the 2 most recent games? LOL weird around here regarding AG.
On the whole he has been significantly underperforming this year. Trending in the right direction recently, but let’s see if he can maintain that trajectory.

Unfortunately we do not have another guard with strong ball handling skills, or he would be the obvious option for reduction in minutes.
 
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Fair enough. I’d rather take some minutes from the players who are actually underperforming like Gilbert or Carlton (more small ball with Akok at the 5) and some from Polley too personally. The depth is a good problem to have. Hopefully Hurley will be comfortable in feeling out who has the hot hand too.
Has Akok played much at the 5?
 
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You do realize Vital is NOT an efficient scorer and he doesn't grab that many contested rebounds. Bouknight can rebound just as well (given the minutes) and is already a more well rounded scorer. You lose nothing by replacing Vital with Bouk...it's a net positive. Let Vital feast on 2nd teamers.
Vital was an incredibly efficient scorer last year. Had the best offensive rating for a guard at UConn last season since they started keeping track in 1999. He's had a rough start this year, but I think he'll find it.
 
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On the whole he has been significantly underperforming this year. Trending in the right direction recently, but let’s see if he can maintain that trajectory.

Unfortunately we do not have another guard with strong ball handling skills, or he would be the obvious option for reduction in minutes.
Agree, Gilbert been underperforming, but lacks a logical replacement. CV underperforming and the best player on the team is his backup. Make the move Dan.
 
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Has Akok played much at the 5?
Kenpom says only 7% of the time over the past 5 games, but that doesn’t include St. Joe’s where he played it a lot during our climb back into the game (if you remember, it was while we were pressing).
 
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Kenpom says only 7% of the time over the past 5 games, but that doesn’t include St. Joe’s where he played it a lot during our climb back into the game (if you remember, it was while we were pressing).
THX for the info. After the first 5 min I tried to forget the St Joe's game LOL was doing some work so wasn't following that closely
 
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Hurley did not “mention” this. He replied to a reporters question. And he did not rule out a line up change down the road. It’s not like Hurley brought up that he is thinking about a change. Watch the exchange in the post game presser.

Bouk’s impact off the bench is great for this team. It also lets him play loose without more of the pressure and expectations the fanbase is putting on him.

Also after better teams and our conference opponents get time scouting and watching tape on Bouk it’s possible that his numbers etc. might come back to reality a little.

Lots of extremely high expectations 4 games in regardless of how amazing he looks to be.
 
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Kenpom says only 7% of the time over the past 5 games, but that doesn’t include St. Joe’s where he played it a lot during our climb back into the game (if you remember, it was while we were pressing).
Do you happen to know our most used lineups and relative performance? Even if limited sample size it would be interesting to track.

Curious if we have run out this lineup: Adams, Vital, Bouk, Polley, Akok
 
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Do you happen to know our most used lineups and relative performance? Even if limited sample size it would be interesting to track.

Curious if we have run out this lineup: Adams, Vital, Bouk, Polley, Akok
All stuff you can see with a kenpom subscription ($20 a year and the perfect distraction at the office).

That lineup isn’t shown, but I personally like it.

Here’s their rolling 5 game depth chart by position
90D8A695-7C0A-44F1-8604-44ABA7C8BCFF.jpeg
 

fleudslipcon

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I mean there's no other way of putting it. He's been worse than expected. Not to say that won't change, but if it doesn't, then it's fair to play him fewer than 35 minutes. In fact, his last 2 games he played 27 and 24 minutes, so that might be his sweet spot. No shame in that, and it'll help keep him healthy.


We're 53rd in defensive TO% and we've given away 22nd lowest TO% offensively. Turnover margin actually might be the team's biggest strength so far (2nd chance points big too).

To answer your second question, no they don't impact each other.
It seems it should. Every turnover is one more lost opportunity for a defensive rebound. Unless the statistic for defensive rebounding is determined on the percentage of failed shots and opportunities for rebounds. Is that the case?
 
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It seems it should. Every turnover is one more lost opportunity for a defensive rebound. Unless the statistic for defensive rebounding is determined on the percentage of failed shots and opportunities for rebounds. Is that the case?
Sorry, I misunderstood. It just takes every rebound in a game and designates it offensive and defensive. Turnovers are not factored in the denominator for OReb or DReb%; like you said that wouldn’t make sense.
 

HuskyHawk

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All stuff you can see with a kenpom subscription ($20 a year and the perfect distraction at the office).

That lineup isn’t shown, but I personally like it.

Here’s their rolling 5 game depth chart by positionView attachment 48806
Not sure who tabulates this. When CV and BA have been the two guard in the lineup, BA has been the PG and CV the SG. I don't think CV has any minutes at the point this year, certainly not 22% of our PG minutes.
 
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