How UConn will Beat South Carolina

[Monte]

SC 77 UCONN 61

 

[ConwayGmck]

UConn has to be able to keep the guards in front and stay out of foul trouble. If they don't, it could be really ugly.

Can't go zone against this iteration of SC. They can shoo the 3-ball. Nika and KK need to stay smart. They both have to be effective and be on the floor for at least 32 minutes each.

Also, I expect SC to be very physical w/Paige.

The one advantage could be Edwards. She needs to stay on the floor as well. SC has depth underneath, but with Kardosa out, I'm not sure if the others have the foot speed.

I think it all comes down to how the game is called. If there are quick whistles or whistles on the last bit of contact, it won't be good for UConn. It's sort of catch-22 for them. They could also get warn down and banged up if the refs let a lot go.

If there will be one thing the "others" WILL have, it would be foot speed, especially Kitts and Watkins. They may not have the strength or size to physically hold up against Edwards, but they both are pretty athletic and fleet of feet.

Feagin may be the slower of the three, but she'll be the bigger post physically. Not as active defensively however, but a solid offensive threat shooting 60% in limited action. I expect to see her play more minutes Sunday. Then there is true post Sakima Walker, who is 6-5. She has mostly played mop-up minutes thus far this season, and is a true "big".

The thing about Cardoso's absence will be that the team was well aware in advance of this, and will have a good week of preparation for playing without Kamilla. All the posts got good minutes against Missouri earlier tonight: The Tigers were without their top player Haley Frank - and Missouri is nowhere as good as CT even with Frank - but the Gamecock bigs of Kitts, Watkins, Feagin, and Walker combined for 15-28 (.536), for 36 pts, 21 rebounds, 10 blocks and 3 steals.

The bigs just have to keep from getting into foul trouble, as CT's motion offense has the tendency to twirl opponents around until they get dizzy, and start trying to defend with their hands instead of their feet....

 

[Topdawg]

For UConn to have a chance:
1. Paige has to be active and accurate from the start of the game.
2. Aaliyah has to be relentless.
3. We have to take and make many outside shots.
4. Defense has to be stellar.

Upsets do happen and UConn will need to be at their very best..

 

[Cuango]

I love your optimism, Tony. But I think you are a bit over the top. First, South Carolina has several "BIGS' to replace Cardozo. They are more like 6'4 than 6'7", but they are big, strong, athletes, the likes of which Aaliyah has not been paired up against in any of the Big East games. Paige, as you say, has to be " all world" against South Carolina , and we all know she can do that. However, we also know she has been struggling, and "beat upon" in the last few games. South Carolina will beat on her again. And the" home game atmosphere" may have the referees favoring the gamecocks ( I know, they are paid to be fair and objective ). Nikka can defend anyone and, as you suggest, she needs to hit some threes early. But she added only 7 points against Seton Hall. That is a long distance from what we shall need in Columbia, SC. As for Shade and KK, let's not forget that they are freshmen. And they are not yet reliable as scoring threats ( e.g. KK had zero points against a Seton Hall team that would lose 200-0 against South Carolina ). And don't forget, South Carolina has had several straight recruiting classes which many regard as "the best in the country." So our really good freshmen may be playing against better basketball players than they have seen. Remember what Hidalgo ( Notre Dame ) did to them? Now, let's get to the fatigue /foul trouble factors; UCONN has five players charged with " getting the job done." It is one thing to play 38 minutes each against the Big East, and quite another to do that against South Carolina. We have two players who represent " depth," while SC probably has five. And what do you expect from Ice and Q? They may become really good players in a season or two. But for each positive they add, they also show a negative. So we are a 10th ranked team, depending on three superstars and two solid freshmen. Not much behind them. And South Carolina is twice that. I don't think they will even notice that Cardozo is gone. I certainly hope you are right in your assessment. But I see UCONN beaten by 18 ( and if it is worse, I wont be surprised ). We have three great players. And four "learning and developing" players behind that. That is not enough against the likely undefeated national champions.

Well, clearly we are big underdogs even with Cardoso not playing. However, lots of things can happen in a basketball game. That’s good because a lot of things are going to have to happen in order for us to pull off the upset! The truth is, we need them to not play their best while we do play our best. If Nika, Ash, and KK can each score 12, Aaliyah 24, and Paige scores 30. I think we have a good chance of winning. Of course, it would help if Ice & Q both scored 8+ as well!
Another thing we need (very important), is no foul trouble! We need to be able to guard the three point line or…hope they don’t shoot well from three. I know she’s a freshman, but one of my big concerns is Fulwiley! She has the potential to have a big game against us as we have trouble with super fast guards, (see Hidalgo) Another big thing we have to ovecome is the home team atmosphere! Our four freshmen haven’t faced this kind of atmosphere, and how they handle it will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game! We have to hope the refs call a fair, not too physical game, as we absolutely cannot afford (even in an evenly called game) to exchange fouls with SC’s superior numbers! Finally, we have to weather the beginnings of the quarters, especially the first and third quarters!
Now that “Captain Obvious” has given his “keys to victory”, let me tell you what I think is the most likely avenue to a UConn victory! As I have said, the roster inequity, especially in this game, requires some sort of favorable intervention in order for us to win. Something unusual is going to have to happen that favors us! I think the most likely way we win this game is that some combination of the above happens and keeps this game close right up to the last couple of minutes, and then Paige wins it for us!

 

[Skeets]

The is a passage in the Hebrew Bible where Abraham barters with G-d to save the people of Sodom and Gomorrah. If Abraham can find 10 good people, will the Lord save the cities? How about 5 good people?

i feel like your write-up demands similar bargaining. If we do 5 of the things you mention, will that suffice? How about 3???

I don't know about the Hebrew Bible, but in other iterations of the Bible I'm pretty sure that was Lot. The guy with the salty wife.

To keep this on target, one possibility is that the ball just refuses to go in the basket very often for SCar. We've all seen this happen. It can happen to anyone. That's why the game HAS to be played. It hurts when it happens to UConn.

 

[JellyBean]

The is a passage in the Hebrew Bible where Abraham barters with G-d to save the people of Sodom and Gomorrah. If Abraham can find 10 good people, will the Lord save the cities? How about 5 good people?

i feel like your write-up demands similar bargaining. If we do 5 of the things you mention, will that suffice? How about 3???

And what was the outcome of that situation? I feel even if we manage to accomplish three of those tasks that I mention, we lose but it could be a close loss. We just can't get our doors blown off.

 

[JellyBean]

I see that you and I have been watching the same team and games. I'll be very surprised if Staley doesn't use as many bodies, contact, and as much pressure as she needs to make sure Bueckers doesn't beat her. It'll take career days from the rest to pull this one off.

I would be shocked as well if Coach Staley doesn't pressure us more Sunday. But on the flipside, we could shock the world and play out of our minds! Anything is possible. We will see which players step up and show their "competitive greatness".

 

[SLY63]

The only thing that stop this from being 20+ MOV for SC is that Dawn won't embarrass Geno.

 

[Dognusty]

This game is all about SC. If they hit outside shots it's almost over for any team. If they are not shooting well you got a shot.

UConn needs to get up early quick. Make SC play from behind.

 

[Conndog]

This game is all about SC. If they hit outside shots it's almost over for any team. If they are not shooting well you got a shot.

UConn needs to get up early quick. Make SC play from behind.

Their 4th quarter is especially punishing because their depth and substitution keeps them fresh at the end. UConn needs to limit turnovers, forget about trying for the block but concentrate on boxing out for rebounds, which can also help minimize foul trouble. UConn needs all 5 players to box out and look for rebounds. I am okay with a zone if 1) UConn knows how to use one, and 2) if it helps with boxing out and rebounds. SC is relentless with rebounding and second chances- in my opinion, addressing that should be UConn’s first priority.

 

[ConwayGmck]

I don't know about the Hebrew Bible, but in other iterations of the Bible I'm pretty sure that was Lot. The guy with the salty wife.

To keep this on target, one possibility is that the ball just refuses to go in the basket very often for SCar. We've all seen this happen. It can happen to anyone. That's why the game HAS to be played. It hurts when it happens to UConn.

Not wishing to divert this from the thread's original intent, but BOTH Abraham AND Lot have their separate roles in Genesis, and are not meant to be one and the same. Abraham has his negotiation with God in Chapter 18, while Lot's ordeal follows in Chapter 19. Now, please continue.......

 

[JellyBean]

The only thing that stop this from being 20+ MOV for SC is that Dawn won't embarrass Geno.

Well said. If Coach Staley was ruthless, she could run up the score but she has too much respect for Coach G do let the game get out of hand.

 

[Dognusty]

Their 4th quarter is especially punishing because their depth and substitution keeps them fresh at the end. UConn needs to limit turnovers, forget about trying for the block but concentrate on boxing out for rebounds, which can also help minimize foul trouble. UConn needs all 5 players to box out and look for rebounds. I am okay with a zone if 1) UConn knows how to use one, and 2) if it helps with boxing out and rebounds. SC is relentless with rebounding and second chances- in my opinion, addressing that should be UConn’s first priority.

Zone could be the kiss and the death. If SC is shooting well, zone will kill you. I would go man to man and make Kitts, Watkins and Feagin beat me. Take Pao Pao out of the game is a must.

 

[PacoSwede]

just want to point out to all doomsayers that the gamecocks have NOT annulated all their opponents. simple truth.

this doesn't mean that won't be huskies' fate sunday ... but the extreme pessimism here is hard to take.

 

[PacoSwede]

just want to point out to all doomsayers that the gamecocks have NOT annulated all their opponents. simple truth.

this doesn't mean that won't be huskies' fate sunday ... but the extreme pessimism here is hard to take.

that's was supposed to be 'annihilated' (blame the computer)

also, add to 'hard to take': ridiculous, absurd, stupid (blame me)

 

[Bone Dog]

Jeez you guys. @Tonyc isn't talking realism here. It’s about inspiration and imagination. You don’t try to refute someone who’s busy imagining a possible future. Certainly not with realism. The future isn’t real and we are all free to imagine it in any number of ways.

Watkins is as big and strong as Aaliyah, and probably as quick. Aaliyah is comfortable being the go-to in the post and Watkins may not be. She’s also a better post scorer. These are the only differences I can see between them. Who knows what Walker and Feagins will bring? And Kitts? And Hall? It’s tough to see Aaliyah and Paige outplaying all of them.

But Paige is a magical creature. It’s a lesson hard to learn, that Paige’s magic can’t be pigeonholed. She lives for games like this. And Aaliyah loves playing next to her elfin friend.

I think the main advantage for SC is in the backcourt. If I go through the list, it looks impossible: Raven, Paopao, Fulwiley, Hall, Johnson, etc. Unless KK finishes on her drives, and Ashlynn scores in double figures, it’s hard to see what we can do. But Ashlynn is capable of putting 20 points up. Can she do it against SC?

It’s easy to think of opponents as monolithic powerhouses. But they are also made up of individuals who can feel pressure and make mistakes. SC’s freshmen, including Kitts, feel it as much as Ash KK Ice and Q will. That’s why anything is possible, even really unlikely things.

 

[FanFromMaine]

I don't know about the Hebrew Bible, but in other iterations of the Bible I'm pretty sure that was Lot. The guy with the salty wife.

To keep this on target, one possibility is that the ball just refuses to go in the basket very often for SCar. We've all seen this happen. It can happen to anyone. That's why the game HAS to be played. It hurts when it happens to UConn.

Got it.

(The Hebrew Bible is often known as the Old Testament. My recollection is that Abraham went to save Lot and his “salty” wife (great phrase!) and was the negotiator.)

Be well…

 

[Bone Dog]

that's was supposed to be 'annihilated' (blame the computer)

also, add to 'hard to take': ridiculous, absurd, stupid (blame me)

Thinking astronomically, SC has annulated a few opponents, as in annular eclipse. Some games have been closer than others.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

I love your optimism, Tony. But I think you are a bit over the top. First, South Carolina has several "BIGS' to replace Cardozo. They are more like 6'4 than 6'7", but they are big, strong, athletes, the likes of which Aaliyah has not been paired up against in any of the Big East games. Paige, as you say, has to be " all world" against South Carolina , and we all know she can do that. However, we also know she has been struggling, and "beat upon" in the last few games. South Carolina will beat on her again. And the" home game atmosphere" may have the referees favoring the gamecocks ( I know, they are paid to be fair and objective ). Nikka can defend anyone and, as you suggest, she needs to hit some threes early. But she added only 7 points against Seton Hall. That is a long distance from what we shall need in Columbia, SC. As for Shade and KK, let's not forget that they are freshmen. And they are not yet reliable as scoring threats ( e.g. KK had zero points against a Seton Hall team that would lose 200-0 against South Carolina ). And don't forget, South Carolina has had several straight recruiting classes which many regard as "the best in the country." So our really good freshmen may be playing against better basketball players than they have seen. Remember what Hidalgo ( Notre Dame ) did to them? Now, let's get to the fatigue /foul trouble factors; UCONN has five players charged with " getting the job done." It is one thing to play 38 minutes each against the Big East, and quite another to do that against South Carolina. We have two players who represent " depth," while SC probably has five. And what do you expect from Ice and Q? They may become really good players in a season or two. But for each positive they add, they also show a negative. So we are a 10th ranked team, depending on three superstars and two solid freshmen. Not much behind them. And South Carolina is twice that. I don't think they will even notice that Cardozo is gone. I certainly hope you are right in your assessment. But I see UCONN beaten by 18 ( and if it is worse, I wont be surprised ). We have three great players. And four "learning and developing" players behind that. That is not enough against the likely undefeated national champions.

Go ahead and take all the fun out of it for us.

 

[Husky fanatic]

To make this fun Ash and Paige have to both be on target and in the 20’s. With Edwards,Nika, and KK not to far behind.

 

[Jokerman619]

I love your optimism, Tony. But I think you are a bit over the top. First, South Carolina has several "BIGS' to replace Cardozo. They are more like 6'4 than 6'7", but they are big, strong, athletes, the likes of which Aaliyah has not been paired up against in any of the Big East games. Paige, as you say, has to be " all world" against South Carolina , and we all know she can do that. However, we also know she has been struggling, and "beat upon" in the last few games. South Carolina will beat on her again. And the" home game atmosphere" may have the referees favoring the gamecocks ( I know, they are paid to be fair and objective ). Nikka can defend anyone and, as you suggest, she needs to hit some threes early. But she added only 7 points against Seton Hall. That is a long distance from what we shall need in Columbia, SC. As for Shade and KK, let's not forget that they are freshmen. And they are not yet reliable as scoring threats ( e.g. KK had zero points against a Seton Hall team that would lose 200-0 against South Carolina ). And don't forget, South Carolina has had several straight recruiting classes which many regard as "the best in the country." So our really good freshmen may be playing against better basketball players than they have seen. Remember what Hidalgo ( Notre Dame ) did to them? Now, let's get to the fatigue /foul trouble factors; UCONN has five players charged with " getting the job done." It is one thing to play 38 minutes each against the Big East, and quite another to do that against South Carolina. We have two players who represent " depth," while SC probably has five. And what do you expect from Ice and Q? They may become really good players in a season or two. But for each positive they add, they also show a negative. So we are a 10th ranked team, depending on three superstars and two solid freshmen. Not much behind them. And South Carolina is twice that. I don't think they will even notice that Cardozo is gone. I certainly hope you are right in your assessment. But I see UCONN beaten by 18 ( and if it is worse, I wont be surprised ). We have three great players. And four "learning and developing" players behind that. That is not enough against the likely undefeated national champions.

 

[Longtime fan]

Sort of curious who the third is.

I regard Muhl as a star. Her defense is unsurpassed. Her ability to dish assists, her newfound ability to hit threes, and her grit. But I agree , she is not as obvious as Paige and Edwards.

 

[Jokerman619]

No Length. No Depth. No chance.
SC will win by 10 even without the big tree in the middle!

Will see

 

[Jokerman619]

This is a game where the cream will rise to the top. I expect Paige to be Paige. With Cardoso out this will allow UConns guards to dribble drive. Another point Aaliyah will not have to be concerned with 6'7 blocking her shots. She can continue to play confidently and I believe she is to quick for SC's bigs to handle. Paige and Aaliyah can not win the game alone. They will need some help. Everybody else has to score. The dribble drives should be open and our guards are quick enough to cause problems for SC's defense. Now SC's defense may double down on Aaliyah and Paige leaving somebody open. We need to hit those shots and force SC to guard 5 on 5. I would like nothing more at the beginning of the game to have KK and Nika hit a couple of outside shots thus forcing SC to pay attention to them. We will need 5 players scoring to keep SC's defense honest. We must stay out of foul trouble. Wouldnt it be nice to go the first half with no UConn play with more then 2 fouls? I dont expect a blowout like some have mentioned. I expect the score to be in the 60's maybe low 70's. I dont expect miracles, I do expect UConn to play their game well.

This is my short thought on how UConn can beat SC.

It's a good thought. I do believe they can win. They are a solid unit. And anybody can be beat. So why not uconn.
Go Huskies

 

[omshanti]

On any given day a top team can lose. It’s happened before and will continue to happen. That is why the games are played. UConn has as good a chance at winning as anyone. Why not them? With Edwards and Bueckers playing their A game anything is possible. Personally I like their chances. As for SC being crowned ‘undefeated national champions’…. Don’t count your chickens (or gamecocks) before they hatch! Go Huskies