How UConn will Beat South Carolina

[Tonyc]

This is a game where the cream will rise to the top. I expect Paige to be Paige. With Cardoso out this will allow UConns guards to dribble drive. Another point Aaliyah will not have to be concerned with 6'7 blocking her shots. She can continue to play confidently and I believe she is to quick for SC's bigs to handle. Paige and Aaliyah can not win the game alone. They will need some help. Everybody else has to score. The dribble drives should be open and our guards are quick enough to cause problems for SC's defense. Now SC's defense may double down on Aaliyah and Paige leaving somebody open. We need to hit those shots and force SC to guard 5 on 5. I would like nothing more at the beginning of the game to have KK and Nika hit a couple of outside shots thus forcing SC to pay attention to them. We will need 5 players scoring to keep SC's defense honest. We must stay out of foul trouble. Wouldnt it be nice to go the first half with no UConn play with more then 2 fouls? I dont expect a blowout like some have mentioned. I expect the score to be in the 60's maybe low 70's. I dont expect miracles, I do expect UConn to play their game well.

This is my short thought on how UConn can beat SC.

 

[Centerstream]

It's simple...at the end of the game, UConn has to have scored at least 1 more point than the Gamecocks. Simple!

 

[Viet Vet]

They won't.

 

[ERWUC65]

With Cardoso out, the game is leveled to some extent. It will be our fitness and stamina against their depth. With both teams good on defense and SC in new sets, I see a low scoring game. Trusting that Aaliyah will give us 20 and 10, Nika will stay on the court and Ash can make some 3's, the key to a possible win will be Paige doing what we still think Paige can do. It's going to be a tournament style tough environment, SC averages some 15,000 fans at home - Go Huskies!

 

[Ouremblem]

Shade can hit the open shots if we actually set her up.

 

[Longtime fan]

This is a game where the cream will rise to the top. I expect Paige to be Paige. With Cardoso out this will allow UConns guards to dribble drive. Another point Aaliyah will not have to be concerned with 6'7 blocking her shots. She can continue to play confidently and I believe she is to quick for SC's bigs to handle. Paige and Aaliyah can not win the game alone. They will need some help. Everybody else has to score. The dribble drives should be open and our guards are quick enough to cause problems for SC's defense. Now SC's defense may double down on Aaliyah and Paige leaving somebody open. We need to hit those shots and force SC to guard 5 on 5. I would like nothing more at the beginning of the game to have KK and Nika hit a couple of outside shots thus forcing SC to pay attention to them. We will need 5 players scoring to keep SC's defense honest. We must stay out of foul trouble. Wouldnt it be nice to go the first half with no UConn play with more then 2 fouls? I dont expect a blowout like some have mentioned. I expect the score to be in the 60's maybe low 70's. I dont expect miracles, I do expect UConn to play their game well.

This is my short thought on how UConn can beat SC.

I love your optimism, Tony. But I think you are a bit over the top. First, South Carolina has several "BIGS' to replace Cardozo. They are more like 6'4 than 6'7", but they are big, strong, athletes, the likes of which Aaliyah has not been paired up against in any of the Big East games. Paige, as you say, has to be " all world" against South Carolina , and we all know she can do that. However, we also know she has been struggling, and "beat upon" in the last few games. South Carolina will beat on her again. And the" home game atmosphere" may have the referees favoring the gamecocks ( I know, they are paid to be fair and objective ). Nikka can defend anyone and, as you suggest, she needs to hit some threes early. But she added only 7 points against Seton Hall. That is a long distance from what we shall need in Columbia, SC. As for Shade and KK, let's not forget that they are freshmen. And they are not yet reliable as scoring threats ( e.g. KK had zero points against a Seton Hall team that would lose 200-0 against South Carolina ). And don't forget, South Carolina has had several straight recruiting classes which many regard as "the best in the country." So our really good freshmen may be playing against better basketball players than they have seen. Remember what Hidalgo ( Notre Dame ) did to them? Now, let's get to the fatigue /foul trouble factors; UCONN has five players charged with " getting the job done." It is one thing to play 38 minutes each against the Big East, and quite another to do that against South Carolina. We have two players who represent " depth," while SC probably has five. And what do you expect from Ice and Q? They may become really good players in a season or two. But for each positive they add, they also show a negative. So we are a 10th ranked team, depending on three superstars and two solid freshmen. Not much behind them. And South Carolina is twice that. I don't think they will even notice that Cardozo is gone. I certainly hope you are right in your assessment. But I see UCONN beaten by 18 ( and if it is worse, I wont be surprised ). We have three great players. And four "learning and developing" players behind that. That is not enough against the likely undefeated national champions.

 

[jonack]

No Length. No Depth. No chance.
SC will win by 10 even without the big tree in the middle!

 

[Next 12]

This will not be the first time Uconn will be facing a NO 1. I believe Uconn will surprise SO Carolina and many,many others with their defense and scoring capabilities and cohesiveness . It will be a grind, but that's Uconn's middle name and with the fact of it's possible, I believe they will pull the win off. GO FRESHMEN!!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[Rowdy831]

This is a game where the cream will rise to the top. I expect Paige to be Paige. With Cardoso out this will allow UConns guards to dribble drive. Another point Aaliyah will not have to be concerned with 6'7 blocking her shots. She can continue to play confidently and I believe she is to quick for SC's bigs to handle. Paige and Aaliyah can not win the game alone. They will need some help. Everybody else has to score. The dribble drives should be open and our guards are quick enough to cause problems for SC's defense. Now SC's defense may double down on Aaliyah and Paige leaving somebody open. We need to hit those shots and force SC to guard 5 on 5. I would like nothing more at the beginning of the game to have KK and Nika hit a couple of outside shots thus forcing SC to pay attention to them. We will need 5 players scoring to keep SC's defense honest. We must stay out of foul trouble. Wouldnt it be nice to go the first half with no UConn play with more then 2 fouls? I dont expect a blowout like some have mentioned. I expect the score to be in the 60's maybe low 70's. I dont expect miracles, I do expect UConn to play their game well.

This is my short thought on how UConn can beat SC.

UConn has not shown once this year that they can compete with an athletic team with size. Geno will play four guards and AE and UConn will get smoked. AE will be doubled and Paige will be muscled leaving the three others to lead the way and they simply aren't capable of playing at that level, yet. The only chance they had in this game left when Geno decided not to develop the players he has this season and instead went with a small team that can get him wins in the Big East.

If they keep this game within 20 points I will be shocked. I expect the margin to be in the 30s or 40s and at least two players will foul out for UConn. SC is a very good team that plays physical ball and AE is the only player on UConn that can play that type of ball. The good though is they will rebound and win every game they have left, at least until the NCAA Tournament.

 

[msf22b]

I am doubtful that UConn can prevail
UConn is a fine team with obvious shortcoming in depth, height, and experience

These obvious shortcomings make us vulnerable to
more complete squads w/o any of the above deficiencies.

You can never count out Paige and Geno but for me, SC is a bridge too far

 

[gandydancer]

SC should be worried.....we play this game with house money.

 

[tomcat]

The flying elephants will keep dropping the ball into the SC basket, over all those players towering over UConn's players. In other words, no way, no how. I wish it weren't true, but I expect this to be a blowout, and not the good kind.

 

[JellyBean]

They won't.

Straight to the point.

 

[The deacon]

depending on three superstars

Three superstars?

Hyperbole, perhaps?

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Three superstars?

Hyperbole, perhaps?

Sort of curious who the third is.

 

[JellyBean]

Yeah, I just don't see us doing well against South Carolina on Sunday. Our post entry passes that we can get away with being sloppy against slower teams, will not work against South Carolina. If we are settling for the pull up from the elbow. That is playing right into the hands of South Carolina because we are one and done.

If we pull off a win against South Carolina, it means the whole team did everything perfectly. Our guards handled the quickness of South Carolina. Our Post players stepped up and played out of their minds. We knocked down 55%, or better, of our shots from deep and midrange. We communicated better on defense. We got more rebounds than South Carolina. We kept our turnovers under 10. If we can do all of that, we should be good, but I don't see that happening.

 

[Spaceman213J]

UConn has to be able to keep the guards in front and stay out of foul trouble. If they don't, it could be really ugly.

Can't go zone against this iteration of SC. They can shoo the 3-ball. Nika and KK need to stay smart. They both have to be effective and be on the floor for at least 32 minutes each.

Also, I expect SC to be very physical w/Paige.

The one advantage could be Edwards. She needs to stay on the floor as well. SC has depth underneath, but with Kardosa out, I'm not sure if the others have the foot speed.

I think it all comes down to how the game is called. If there are quick whistles or whistles on the last bit of contact, it won't be good for UConn. It's sort of catch-22 for them. They could also get warn down and banged up if the refs let a lot go.

 

[Urshurak]

Gosh I’m amazed at how thick the rose colored glasses are here sometimes. Head in the sand, breathing through a straw. I expect it from Next12, but not you too Tony!

Love UConn, but this team has very little chance here. Almost zero. You know what? It’s okay! This team is what it is. Injury riddled, two years in a row.

Hopefully, they can make it respectable. All they can do is their best, and I know they will.

 

[FanFromMaine]

They won't.

I see your “they won’t” and raise you a “they will.”

 

[FanFromMaine]

No Length. No Depth. No chance.
SC will win by 10 even without the big tree in the middle!

While i love the alliteration, you’re not putting much behind your claim. Massey already suggests SC by 9.

Come on, take the dive. SC by 30!!!

 

[FanFromMaine]

The flying elephants will keep dropping the ball into the SC basket, over all those players towering over UConn's players. In other words, no way, no how. I wish it weren't true, but I expect this to be a blowout, and not the good kind.

Interesting imagery… But last season SC lost in the semi’s to a team who also was “no way, no how.”

 

[FanFromMaine]

Three superstars?

Hyperbole, perhaps?

All this going on and you focus on the artistic nature of the write-up?

 

[FanFromMaine]

Yeah, I just don't see us doing well against South Carolina on Sunday. Our post entry passes that we can get away with being sloppy against slower teams, will not work against South Carolina. If we are settling for the pull up from the elbow. That is playing right into the hands of South Carolina because we are one and done.

If we pull off a win against South Carolina, it means the whole team did everything perfectly. Our guards handled the quickness of South Carolina. Our Post players stepped up and played out of their minds. We knocked down 55%, or better, of our shots from deep and midrange. We communicated better on defense. We got more rebounds than South Carolina. We kept our turnovers under 10. If we can do all of that, we should be good, but I don't see that happening.

The is a passage in the Hebrew Bible where Abraham barters with G-d to save the people of Sodom and Gomorrah. If Abraham can find 10 good people, will the Lord save the cities? How about 5 good people?

i feel like your write-up demands similar bargaining. If we do 5 of the things you mention, will that suffice? How about 3???

 

[BobbyJ]

Yeah, I just don't see us doing well against South Carolina on Sunday. Our post entry passes that we can get away with being sloppy against slower teams, will not work against South Carolina. If we are settling for the pull up from the elbow. That is playing right into the hands of South Carolina because we are one and done.

If we pull off a win against South Carolina, it means the whole team did everything perfectly. Our guards handled the quickness of South Carolina. Our Post players stepped up and played out of their minds. We knocked down 55%, or better, of our shots from deep and midrange. We communicated better on defense. We got more rebounds than South Carolina. We kept our turnovers under 10. If we can do all of that, we should be good, but I don't see that happening.

I see that you and I have been watching the same team and games. I'll be very surprised if Staley doesn't use as many bodies, contact, and as much pressure as she needs to make sure Bueckers doesn't beat her. It'll take career days from the rest to pull this one off.

 

[ConwayGmck]

Three superstars?

Hyperbole, perhaps?

Obviously based upon the limited personnel, the superstars are Beuckers, Edwards, and Muhl. The two freshmen are Arnold and Shade....

 

[Monte]

SC 77 UCONN 61

 

[ConwayGmck]

UConn has to be able to keep the guards in front and stay out of foul trouble. If they don't, it could be really ugly.

Can't go zone against this iteration of SC. They can shoo the 3-ball. Nika and KK need to stay smart. They both have to be effective and be on the floor for at least 32 minutes each.

Also, I expect SC to be very physical w/Paige.

The one advantage could be Edwards. She needs to stay on the floor as well. SC has depth underneath, but with Kardosa out, I'm not sure if the others have the foot speed.

I think it all comes down to how the game is called. If there are quick whistles or whistles on the last bit of contact, it won't be good for UConn. It's sort of catch-22 for them. They could also get warn down and banged up if the refs let a lot go.

If there will be one thing the "others" WILL have, it would be foot speed, especially Kitts and Watkins. They may not have the strength or size to physically hold up against Edwards, but they both are pretty athletic and fleet of feet.

Feagin may be the slower of the three, but she'll be the bigger post physically. Not as active defensively however, but a solid offensive threat shooting 60% in limited action. I expect to see her play more minutes Sunday. Then there is true post Sakima Walker, who is 6-5. She has mostly played mop-up minutes thus far this season, and is a true "big".

The thing about Cardoso's absence will be that the team was well aware in advance of this, and will have a good week of preparation for playing without Kamilla. All the posts got good minutes against Missouri earlier tonight: The Tigers were without their top player Haley Frank - and Missouri is nowhere as good as CT even with Frank - but the Gamecock bigs of Kitts, Watkins, Feagin, and Walker combined for 15-28 (.536), for 36 pts, 21 rebounds, 10 blocks and 3 steals.

The bigs just have to keep from getting into foul trouble, as CT's motion offense has the tendency to twirl opponents around until they get dizzy, and start trying to defend with their hands instead of their feet....

 

[Topdawg]

For UConn to have a chance:
1. Paige has to be active and accurate from the start of the game.
2. Aaliyah has to be relentless.
3. We have to take and make many outside shots.
4. Defense has to be stellar.

Upsets do happen and UConn will need to be at their very best..

 

[Cuango]

I love your optimism, Tony. But I think you are a bit over the top. First, South Carolina has several "BIGS' to replace Cardozo. They are more like 6'4 than 6'7", but they are big, strong, athletes, the likes of which Aaliyah has not been paired up against in any of the Big East games. Paige, as you say, has to be " all world" against South Carolina , and we all know she can do that. However, we also know she has been struggling, and "beat upon" in the last few games. South Carolina will beat on her again. And the" home game atmosphere" may have the referees favoring the gamecocks ( I know, they are paid to be fair and objective ). Nikka can defend anyone and, as you suggest, she needs to hit some threes early. But she added only 7 points against Seton Hall. That is a long distance from what we shall need in Columbia, SC. As for Shade and KK, let's not forget that they are freshmen. And they are not yet reliable as scoring threats ( e.g. KK had zero points against a Seton Hall team that would lose 200-0 against South Carolina ). And don't forget, South Carolina has had several straight recruiting classes which many regard as "the best in the country." So our really good freshmen may be playing against better basketball players than they have seen. Remember what Hidalgo ( Notre Dame ) did to them? Now, let's get to the fatigue /foul trouble factors; UCONN has five players charged with " getting the job done." It is one thing to play 38 minutes each against the Big East, and quite another to do that against South Carolina. We have two players who represent " depth," while SC probably has five. And what do you expect from Ice and Q? They may become really good players in a season or two. But for each positive they add, they also show a negative. So we are a 10th ranked team, depending on three superstars and two solid freshmen. Not much behind them. And South Carolina is twice that. I don't think they will even notice that Cardozo is gone. I certainly hope you are right in your assessment. But I see UCONN beaten by 18 ( and if it is worse, I wont be surprised ). We have three great players. And four "learning and developing" players behind that. That is not enough against the likely undefeated national champions.

Well, clearly we are big underdogs even with Cardoso not playing. However, lots of things can happen in a basketball game. That’s good because a lot of things are going to have to happen in order for us to pull off the upset! The truth is, we need them to not play their best while we do play our best. If Nika, Ash, and KK can each score 12, Aaliyah 24, and Paige scores 30. I think we have a good chance of winning. Of course, it would help if Ice & Q both scored 8+ as well!
Another thing we need (very important), is no foul trouble! We need to be able to guard the three point line or…hope they don’t shoot well from three. I know she’s a freshman, but one of my big concerns is Fulwiley! She has the potential to have a big game against us as we have trouble with super fast guards, (see Hidalgo) Another big thing we have to ovecome is the home team atmosphere! Our four freshmen haven’t faced this kind of atmosphere, and how they handle it will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game! We have to hope the refs call a fair, not too physical game, as we absolutely cannot afford (even in an evenly called game) to exchange fouls with SC’s superior numbers! Finally, we have to weather the beginnings of the quarters, especially the first and third quarters!
Now that “Captain Obvious” has given his “keys to victory”, let me tell you what I think is the most likely avenue to a UConn victory! As I have said, the roster inequity, especially in this game, requires some sort of favorable intervention in order for us to win. Something unusual is going to have to happen that favors us! I think the most likely way we win this game is that some combination of the above happens and keeps this game close right up to the last couple of minutes, and then Paige wins it for us!

 

[Skeets]

The is a passage in the Hebrew Bible where Abraham barters with G-d to save the people of Sodom and Gomorrah. If Abraham can find 10 good people, will the Lord save the cities? How about 5 good people?

i feel like your write-up demands similar bargaining. If we do 5 of the things you mention, will that suffice? How about 3???

I don't know about the Hebrew Bible, but in other iterations of the Bible I'm pretty sure that was Lot. The guy with the salty wife.

To keep this on target, one possibility is that the ball just refuses to go in the basket very often for SCar. We've all seen this happen. It can happen to anyone. That's why the game HAS to be played. It hurts when it happens to UConn.