How Much Better

[Charliebball]

Cable was the glue to the team and will be missed more then people realize. Mabrey was only a starter because she was a SR and Muffet has a thing for starting upper classmen. Her sister and Ogumbawale were better but she still made them come off the bench but they played just as much. Muffet might do the same with Westbeld starting over Boley even though i think Boley is better all ready.

Boley is going to be a very, very good player from day one............Young may have to wait her turn but is ultra talented.............ND is in good shape.........damn it!!!

 

[alexrgct]

Appreciate the enthusiasm as always! Having said that...

UCONN lost arguably their best player in the history of the college game and the best PG UCONN has ever had and a great glue player, who according to Geno, wasn't "great" at anything, but was really really good at everything. It's simply impossible to replace that. If you look at the top players that some of the already best teams lost, it looks like this:

SC - Mitchell
Texas - Boyette
Maryland - Moseley
OSU - Alston
Baylor - Johnson
ND - nobody

UCONN - Tuck, Jefferson, Stewart

Now look at where the top teams ended last season ranked:

1 - UCONN
4 - Baylor
5 - SC
6 - ND
7 - Texas
9 - Maryland
10- OSU
14 - L'ville

Then look at the top 15 kids brought in by these already highly ranked programs:

UCONN - Dangerfield
Baylor - Cox, Chou
Texas - Holmes, Sutton
ND - Boley, Young
Maryland - Slocum
OSU - McCoy
L'ville - Johnson
SC - nobody

Also, Maryland (2), L'ville OSU and Baylor all added additional kids in the top 25.

So what's my point? Look at what UCONN lost. Arguably the best class in the history of WCBB. I don't care how great Geno is, making it to the final 4 this season will be a tremendous accomplishment. Is our cupboard bare? Of course not, but we have a LOT of question marks...

1. Who plays PG and how effective will they be?
2. Now that Butler's hand is 100% healed, how good can she be?
3. UCONN has a serious lack of size - how do they compensate?
4. Will Chong have the confidence and ability to be a really good contributor, or will she come off the bench and be "meh"?
5. Just what kind of sophomore leap can we expect from KLS and Collier?
6. How much will Gabby have improved her game (including possibly expanding her shot to the 3 point line)?

The talent gap between UCONN and the other top teams has completely disappeared. IMHO, there are at least 6 teams with a legit shot to win it all this year - UCONN, Baylor, SC, Texas, ND and Maryland. Then of course there are a bunch of other teams right on the cusp (OSU, Syracuse, L'ville, etc). I have no doubt that this team is tough and that Geno will help prepare them for the post season to be the very best they possibly can be. But there is so much talent out there - UCONN fans need to be prepared for losses (yes losses - more than 1) this season and for the possibility that the final 4 may be the max upside this team can achieve, and even that may be out of our reach this season...

Excellent analysis. Honestly, I'll just be happy with a) something better than 2004-05 post-Diana, b) at least a trip to the regional semis (at barest minimum), and c) a continuation of the "no consecutive games lost" streak dating back to 1993.

Oh, and D) anybody but Notre Dame.

 

[Orangutan]

Cable was the glue to the team and will be missed more then people realize. Mabrey was only a starter because she was a SR and Muffet has a thing for starting upper classmen. Her sister and Ogumbawale were better but she still made them come off the bench but they played just as much. Muffet might do the same with Westbeld starting over Boley even though i think Boley is better all ready.

Mabrey only started because she was a senior? Well, she started a junior, too (for a Final Four team). And she was the most-played bench player as a sophomore. It's not like she was a ceremonial starter last year either. She was third in total minutes played, 4th in minutes per game. I know McGraw is deferential to upperclassmen but she's also trying to win. She's not playing Mabrey 18% more than Ogunbowale (125 more minutes) if she thinks that she is an inferior player.

Not for nothing was Mabrey immediately picked up by Miami to be a part of their staff. Her intelligence and leadership (not mention 3-point shooting and assists) were very valuable to ND last year.

Also, please learn to spell "Ogunbowale". There is no "m" in her name.

 

[Carnac]

I looked at what some of the key teams have returning this year. I was surprised how much SC lost (but they also get two transfers: Kaela Davis and Allisha Grey), and surprised how much Baylor is bringing back. UConn will be hard pressed to beat Baylor and ND early in the season when our players will be still figuring out each payers roles this year.

minutes points rebounds
UConn 54% 49% 54% (lost Stewart, Jefferson, Tuck and Ekmark)
ND 67% 71% 71% (Cable, Mabrey, Huffman)
Baylor 77% 87% 78% (Niya Johnson, Higgins, Fuqua)
Texas 61% 67% 59% (Boyette, Davenport, Rodrigo, Sanders)
SC 41% 49% 55% (Mitchell, Sessions, Roy, Imovbich, Dozier, Jatari White)

Glenn, you have made an excellent observation. Yes, UConn lost the "heart" of it team from last year. Other teams lost some key players and role players also. The good teams usually have other players waiting in the wings to take over for graduating seniors.

At this point, no one knows how well those replacements will mesh into the grand scheme of things. Every year, each program trots out a new team, because the roster has changed from the year before. Some players that replace the seniors from step in and perform as expected, some don't. Every team is better and more finely tuned in March than in November.

There are some dynamics that occur every year that we can't figure into our assessments at this time. Injuries, transfers, performance under achievement resulting in benching, and bench players then asked to step up (UConn 2014), academic ineligibilities, etc.

Sometimes a team will lose a player(s) that is not so easily replaced. Niya Johnson was the floor general for Mulkey at Baylor. The one game they lost at Oklahoma State, Johnson did not play. Does Mulkey have an adequate replacement for Niya? Who is going to get Nina Davis the ball?

Tiffany Mitchell (not A'ja Wilson) was the team leader and the heart & soul of the Gamecocks last year. Who replaces her? (and her point production?). This is not doubt A'ja's team now. She is the face of that program. How much help will she and her side kick Alaina Coates get from the rest of the team this year? Breanna Stewart/Morgan Tuck/Moriah Jefferson, who steps up to replace their production?

It's assumed that these teams will all bounce back without missing a lick, and begin the season playing at a high level. THAT remains to be seen. The same can be said for UConn. We'll just have to wait and see. Right now, we're "assuming" a lot of things. There are some players on the roster that are expected (and need to) step up. IF they do, UConn's fall from grace won't be as far as some folks are anticipating it will.

We won't have to wait much longer. The first exhibition game (Nov. 1st) against IUP is in 29 more days. IUP will not bring out he best in the Huskies. IUP is a Division 2 school that 's in the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC). They finished 21-9 last year. A quick look at their roster shows that they have a very small team. None of their players are 6'1' or over. They have 3 players that are 6'0".

This game will nothing more than as billed, an "exhibition" game. At least we'll know who the starters are, and what kind of defensive schemes Geno is going to run. I expect most of the offensive plays to be run for Lou and Kia. No doubt one other player will be added to that mix. Maybe Gabby or maybe Collier.

I also expect to see the freshmen play at least 5-7 minutes (maybe more), as this game should have been decided by half time. Even with 20 minutes of garbage time (second half), I don't expect IUP to score more than 35 points, as the bench players will be trying to impress Geno and staff with their ability to make stops, and make baskets. First night is only 11 days from today.

 

[Carnac]

BroadwayVa- - - -You are right, I don't under estimate this year's Huskies, I was just proving a point to BobbyJ that even if the "D" was slightly off they were still a potent crew to mess with!
I think Geno in all his glory is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat! Back in 2003 when DT and the others made the FF winning the semi's and before the Finals the team came back into the locker room after pregame warmup and on the blackboard was listed under "starters" was Diana Taurasi SG, Sue Bird PG, Swin Cash SF, Asjha Jones C, & Tamika Williams, PF! Diana and the rest of the team said to the coaching staff, "What is that?" Geno said "that's who we don't have.." and they went out and won the Championship! Geno is going to throw Stewie, MoJeff, & Morgan in this team's faces everyday, every practice, every game, who they don't have, and this years team is going to play pi--ed all season trying to prove a point that THEY are still capable of great things!
The rest of Div. I is saying this is a down year for UCONN! This is the year to knock them off and Div. I is in for a shock! All of Geno's players say his greatest talent/gift is as a motivator!

I'll repeat what another poster said back in late April........"If UConn is not as potent next year as they were this year, it just means that they will win games by 15-20 points instead of 40".
Think about that until the season begins.