How Much Better

[BroadwayVa]

Tonyc, great minds think alike. I've been thinking (and commenting on) the same thing you just spoke of. For all the reasons you mentioned, I believe UConn will once again be one of the top teams in the country, and a good bet to be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. To borrow a line from former Dodger manager Tommie Lasorda: "You can't win a pennant in April, but you can sure lose one".

This same axiom can be said for women's college basketball. The national championship is not going to be won in November or December. It will be won in April, like it is every year. If UConn loses a game or two early in the season, it's not a death sentence. Some people forget, UConn always plays it's best basketball in March and April.

The Baylor game will tell us a lot about this year's team, just like the Stanford game did in 2014. Win or lose, adjustments will no doubt be made. As always, the hardest part of UConn's schedule is front loaded. I like to wait until after the 5th non-exhibition game (Chattanooga) has been played before I try and assess a team's fortunes. Four games are circled on UConn's calendar: Baylor, Notre Dame, Ohio State and South Carolina. This year's BIG 4. Those are bench mark games. These teams represent the quality of competition UConn will face the last 3 games of the tournament.

Geno is smart to play the Gamecocks in February. He plays 3 top 5 programs in early in the season, makes adjustments, then plays another top 5 team to see exactly where they are (a final exam), and what needs to be "tweaked" before tournament play begins. It's a formula that has worked well in the recent past. This year's team is going to surpass a lot of people's expectations.

Players that had to play a supporting role the last couple of years, will now get to step up into a leading role. They'll get to showcase their skills and talent, that to this point, we've only seen bits and pieces of.
Don't expect UConn to fade late in the season.

Geno does his best coaching in the early spring. They'll be right in the thick of things when the tournament begins. If UConn wins the championship again this year, I think they should seriously consider re-naming the championship trophy: "The Auriemma trophy". Because if he takes this team all the way, his greatness can never again be questioned.

Bill Belichick is thought to be a great coach. Not because of his players, but because of his team's success over the years. Players come and go. HE is the constant. It's not the players, it's the system. It's the same with Geno and UConn. It takes team work to make the dream work. Go Huskies.

This year's team is going to surpass a lot of people's expectations. Geno does his best coaching in the early spring

Both of these comments of yours are correct--my belief is they will do very good in the NCAA's--NC?? While Geno coaches exceptionally well in the Elite 8, Final 4 and NC's --the build up to this point started in October and he builds on it.

As you, Coco and Bags have said--the first game against a top rated team will tell a lot--ND will let us all know if the NCAA final 4 is possible.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Center: How does Butler play? Tentative/foul prone/a step slow? Or as a defensive rock and rebound machine? Can she stay out of foul trouble? There are some teams (ND, Baylor, SC, Texas and maybe others) that will have more talented (and plentiful) bigs. Can she hold her own? I wonder beyond Butler who can step up and cover a second big player or step in when Butler sits (I believe that this is the area that we will feel the lack of Tuck's unnoticed brilliance most).

Point guard: How does Dangerfield play? I believe that she has to emerge as a steady floor general (as few freshman point guards do). I just don't see Kia Nurse as the full-time point guard on a championship team. I know of her exploits on the Canadian Olympic team (I saw them live twice). I just don't believe she has the point guard handle or mentality. She isn't a "set up first" or "create for others" guard at this point in her career. I think she can handle the point for parts of the game/season but I think Dangerfield is the true point and Kia is a better two. I have no idea what we will get from Chong. She has yet to show she can handle the load consistently for a season.

The others: I think UConn will use the traditional 2, 3 and 4 slots interchangeably. I think KLS will break out. If healthy, I anticipate her being in the All-American discussion. I'm a big Collier fan. She does the little things: a steal, a block, an offensive rebound, setting picks, good defense and an expanding offensive game. Gabby is more of a mystery to me. A mystery that has shown flashes of "holy cow" ... without consistency. She has amazing athletic tools but is a little in and out. There were times when she was just not effective when I thought she would be. If she gains consistency and her shot continues to improve then she has the potential to move this team to another level.

The newbies: I have no idea which of them will step up and seize a role. My guess/hope for breakout star is either Camara or Irwin to step into that role of a big who can play defense and grab rebounds.

Leadership: Who will emerge as the team's leader? We lost three great ones from last year. Who leads in practice, distilling Geno and crew for the freshmen? Who sets the tone in practice, going hard every drill and pushing others to do the same? Who is the voice in the huddle during the games? I think Nurse and Gabby are the naturals for this role but can they do it? Are they focused enough? Do they play well and consistently enough? Do the others follow?

I think we will see more pressing and zones than we have in the past. The offense will not flow as it has in the past. Points will be harder. Some teams will score on us a bit more easily than in the past. I could also see teams attempting to pound us inside.

The good news? We are comparing this team to a team that sat on Mt. Olympus. This team can fail to reach those heights and still win big. My guess is that we will lose more than one game (vague enough for you?) but I just don't have a grip on this team yet to predict how many with any confidence. I think at tournament time no one will want to be in our bracket, whether we are a one or two seed.

The constant is GENO et al!
Butler will be slightly more mobile, and lighter--shel'll not be Steff. But she'll be good or very good Natalie Butler. Don't look for Stewie this year.
The Point will be covered by Chong (if healthy), Kia (Crystal will sub her), when comfortable Geno will use Crystal more. Crystal is a good point see the floor well, dishes well, can score off the dribble--???? Defense??? but Geno will fix this as the year moves on.

Leadership---Gabby, Kia, Katie Lou--maybe Chong if if if

 

[BroadwayVa]

BobbyJ- - - -You forget how well KLS, Collier (who was unknowingly hurt most of last season), & Gabby, added to the outstanding defense of the graduated Big 3. They more than held their own on the run to the title! With a healthy Natalie Butler bringing her formidable 6'5" athletic frame to the fray. The 3 named above improved theirI like youa "D" dramatically from the beginning to the Championship game! And you named the reason I'm so sure UCONN's defense will more than carry the load, Geno Auriemma WILL COACH THE HELL OUT OF THAT DEFENSE, just as he does every year with the best Assts. in Div. I WBB! With F/C Irwin adding in as she gets the hang of what's expected of her by that great coaching staff!
And if they hold opponents to 55 to 65 points per game average instead of 45 to 55, they will still be outscoring opponents by 15 to 20 points! It'll add a little excitement to the games that some people complain about the constant slaughters, such as the man with no name with the BOSTON GLOBE!

Personally---I think Uconn WBB losing is BAD for WBB!!

I like your analysis!! I'm particularly high on Crystal, Kayla Erwin, and Bent. They are FROSH--none are Moriah , Tuck or Stew--those 3 are gone--gone gone. These are the new Queens of UC WBB--: Katie Lou, Kia, Collier, Gabby, Butler, Chong and the three above. I hink this group is capable of 70/80 points a game--don't under estimate This team (RSHERM I know you don't) the talent was there from the get go..

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Personally---I think Uconn WBB losing is BAD for WBB!!

I like your analysis!! I'm particularly high on Crystal, Kayla Erwin, and Bent. They are FROSH--none are Moriah , Tuck or Stew--those 3 are gone--gone gone. These are the new Queens of UC WBB--: Katie Lou, Kia, Collier, Gabby, Butler, Chong and the three above. I hink this group is capable of 70/80 points a game--don't under estimate This team (RSHERM I know you don't) the talent was there from the get go..

BroadwayVa- - - -You are right, I don't under estimate this year's Huskies, I was just proving a point to BobbyJ that even if the "D" was slightly off they were still a potent crew to mess with!
I think Geno in all his glory is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat! Back in 2003 when DT and the others made the FF winning the semi's and before the Finals the team came back into the locker room after pregame warmup and on the blackboard was listed under "starters" was Diana Taurasi SG, Sue Bird PG, Swin Cash SF, Asjha Jones C, & Tamika Williams, PF! Diana and the rest of the team said to the coaching staff, "What is that?" Geno said "that's who we don't have......." and they went out and won the Championship! Geno is going to throw Stewie, MoJeff, & Morgan in this team's faces everyday, every practice, every game, who they don't have, and this years team is going to play pi--ed all season trying to prove a point that THEY are still capable of great things!
The rest of Div. I is saying this is a down year for UCONN! This is the year to knock them off and Div. I is in for a shock! All of Geno's players say his greatest talent/gift is as a motivator!

 

[BroadwayVa]

BroadwayVa- - - -You are right, I don't under estimate this year's Huskies, I was just proving a point to BobbyJ that even if the "D" was slightly off they were still a potent crew to mess with!
I think Geno in all his glory is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat! Back in 2003 when DT and the others made the FF winning the semi's and before the Finals the team came back into the locker room after pregame warmup and on the blackboard was listed under "starters" was Diana Taurasi SG, Sue Bird PG, Swin Cash SF, Asjha Jones C, & Tamika Williams, PF! Diana and the rest of the team said to the coaching staff, "What is that?" Geno said "that's who we don't have.." and they went out and won the Championship! Geno is going to throw Stewie, MoJeff, & Morgan in this team's faces everyday, every practice, every game, who they don't have, and this years team is going to play pi--ed all season trying to prove a point that THEY are still capable of great things!
The rest of Div. I is saying this is a down year for UCONN! This is the year to knock them off and Div. I is in for a shock! All of Geno's players say his greatest talent/gift is as a motivator!

Actually, I knew you never underestimated the talent we have TODAY--as the song said: Yesterday is dead and gone and tomorrow is out of sight. We have what we have and they are the BEST..
Some, if not all, of those who are lining up to "knock Uconn off the top block" are in for a major surprise.
Hey---Katie Lou, Collier, Butler, Gabby, Kia, Chong, Kayla, Crystal, Bent and Lawlor are not Chicken Soup--they are PRIME
UConn BB players--and that says everything. (for the unbelievers) Look and then think of the TALENT Uconn has RIGHT NOW...

 

[Charliebball]

Cable was the glue to the team and will be missed more then people realize. Mabrey was only a starter because she was a SR and Muffet has a thing for starting upper classmen. Her sister and Ogumbawale were better but she still made them come off the bench but they played just as much. Muffet might do the same with Westbeld starting over Boley even though i think Boley is better all ready.

Boley is going to be a very, very good player from day one............Young may have to wait her turn but is ultra talented.............ND is in good shape.........damn it!!!

 

[alexrgct]

Appreciate the enthusiasm as always! Having said that...

UCONN lost arguably their best player in the history of the college game and the best PG UCONN has ever had and a great glue player, who according to Geno, wasn't "great" at anything, but was really really good at everything. It's simply impossible to replace that. If you look at the top players that some of the already best teams lost, it looks like this:

SC - Mitchell
Texas - Boyette
Maryland - Moseley
OSU - Alston
Baylor - Johnson
ND - nobody

UCONN - Tuck, Jefferson, Stewart

Now look at where the top teams ended last season ranked:

1 - UCONN
4 - Baylor
5 - SC
6 - ND
7 - Texas
9 - Maryland
10- OSU
14 - L'ville

Then look at the top 15 kids brought in by these already highly ranked programs:

UCONN - Dangerfield
Baylor - Cox, Chou
Texas - Holmes, Sutton
ND - Boley, Young
Maryland - Slocum
OSU - McCoy
L'ville - Johnson
SC - nobody

Also, Maryland (2), L'ville OSU and Baylor all added additional kids in the top 25.

So what's my point? Look at what UCONN lost. Arguably the best class in the history of WCBB. I don't care how great Geno is, making it to the final 4 this season will be a tremendous accomplishment. Is our cupboard bare? Of course not, but we have a LOT of question marks...

1. Who plays PG and how effective will they be?
2. Now that Butler's hand is 100% healed, how good can she be?
3. UCONN has a serious lack of size - how do they compensate?
4. Will Chong have the confidence and ability to be a really good contributor, or will she come off the bench and be "meh"?
5. Just what kind of sophomore leap can we expect from KLS and Collier?
6. How much will Gabby have improved her game (including possibly expanding her shot to the 3 point line)?

The talent gap between UCONN and the other top teams has completely disappeared. IMHO, there are at least 6 teams with a legit shot to win it all this year - UCONN, Baylor, SC, Texas, ND and Maryland. Then of course there are a bunch of other teams right on the cusp (OSU, Syracuse, L'ville, etc). I have no doubt that this team is tough and that Geno will help prepare them for the post season to be the very best they possibly can be. But there is so much talent out there - UCONN fans need to be prepared for losses (yes losses - more than 1) this season and for the possibility that the final 4 may be the max upside this team can achieve, and even that may be out of our reach this season...

Excellent analysis. Honestly, I'll just be happy with a) something better than 2004-05 post-Diana, b) at least a trip to the regional semis (at barest minimum), and c) a continuation of the "no consecutive games lost" streak dating back to 1993.

Oh, and D) anybody but Notre Dame.

 

[Orangutan]

Cable was the glue to the team and will be missed more then people realize. Mabrey was only a starter because she was a SR and Muffet has a thing for starting upper classmen. Her sister and Ogumbawale were better but she still made them come off the bench but they played just as much. Muffet might do the same with Westbeld starting over Boley even though i think Boley is better all ready.

Mabrey only started because she was a senior? Well, she started a junior, too (for a Final Four team). And she was the most-played bench player as a sophomore. It's not like she was a ceremonial starter last year either. She was third in total minutes played, 4th in minutes per game. I know McGraw is deferential to upperclassmen but she's also trying to win. She's not playing Mabrey 18% more than Ogunbowale (125 more minutes) if she thinks that she is an inferior player.

Not for nothing was Mabrey immediately picked up by Miami to be a part of their staff. Her intelligence and leadership (not mention 3-point shooting and assists) were very valuable to ND last year.

Also, please learn to spell "Ogunbowale". There is no "m" in her name.

 

[Carnac]

I looked at what some of the key teams have returning this year. I was surprised how much SC lost (but they also get two transfers: Kaela Davis and Allisha Grey), and surprised how much Baylor is bringing back. UConn will be hard pressed to beat Baylor and ND early in the season when our players will be still figuring out each payers roles this year.

minutes points rebounds
UConn 54% 49% 54% (lost Stewart, Jefferson, Tuck and Ekmark)
ND 67% 71% 71% (Cable, Mabrey, Huffman)
Baylor 77% 87% 78% (Niya Johnson, Higgins, Fuqua)
Texas 61% 67% 59% (Boyette, Davenport, Rodrigo, Sanders)
SC 41% 49% 55% (Mitchell, Sessions, Roy, Imovbich, Dozier, Jatari White)

Glenn, you have made an excellent observation. Yes, UConn lost the "heart" of it team from last year. Other teams lost some key players and role players also. The good teams usually have other players waiting in the wings to take over for graduating seniors.

At this point, no one knows how well those replacements will mesh into the grand scheme of things. Every year, each program trots out a new team, because the roster has changed from the year before. Some players that replace the seniors from step in and perform as expected, some don't. Every team is better and more finely tuned in March than in November.

There are some dynamics that occur every year that we can't figure into our assessments at this time. Injuries, transfers, performance under achievement resulting in benching, and bench players then asked to step up (UConn 2014), academic ineligibilities, etc.

Sometimes a team will lose a player(s) that is not so easily replaced. Niya Johnson was the floor general for Mulkey at Baylor. The one game they lost at Oklahoma State, Johnson did not play. Does Mulkey have an adequate replacement for Niya? Who is going to get Nina Davis the ball?

Tiffany Mitchell (not A'ja Wilson) was the team leader and the heart & soul of the Gamecocks last year. Who replaces her? (and her point production?). This is not doubt A'ja's team now. She is the face of that program. How much help will she and her side kick Alaina Coates get from the rest of the team this year? Breanna Stewart/Morgan Tuck/Moriah Jefferson, who steps up to replace their production?

It's assumed that these teams will all bounce back without missing a lick, and begin the season playing at a high level. THAT remains to be seen. The same can be said for UConn. We'll just have to wait and see. Right now, we're "assuming" a lot of things. There are some players on the roster that are expected (and need to) step up. IF they do, UConn's fall from grace won't be as far as some folks are anticipating it will.

We won't have to wait much longer. The first exhibition game (Nov. 1st) against IUP is in 29 more days. IUP will not bring out he best in the Huskies. IUP is a Division 2 school that 's in the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC). They finished 21-9 last year. A quick look at their roster shows that they have a very small team. None of their players are 6'1' or over. They have 3 players that are 6'0".

This game will nothing more than as billed, an "exhibition" game. At least we'll know who the starters are, and what kind of defensive schemes Geno is going to run. I expect most of the offensive plays to be run for Lou and Kia. No doubt one other player will be added to that mix. Maybe Gabby or maybe Collier.

I also expect to see the freshmen play at least 5-7 minutes (maybe more), as this game should have been decided by half time. Even with 20 minutes of garbage time (second half), I don't expect IUP to score more than 35 points, as the bench players will be trying to impress Geno and staff with their ability to make stops, and make baskets. First night is only 11 days from today.

 

[Carnac]

BroadwayVa- - - -You are right, I don't under estimate this year's Huskies, I was just proving a point to BobbyJ that even if the "D" was slightly off they were still a potent crew to mess with!
I think Geno in all his glory is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat! Back in 2003 when DT and the others made the FF winning the semi's and before the Finals the team came back into the locker room after pregame warmup and on the blackboard was listed under "starters" was Diana Taurasi SG, Sue Bird PG, Swin Cash SF, Asjha Jones C, & Tamika Williams, PF! Diana and the rest of the team said to the coaching staff, "What is that?" Geno said "that's who we don't have.." and they went out and won the Championship! Geno is going to throw Stewie, MoJeff, & Morgan in this team's faces everyday, every practice, every game, who they don't have, and this years team is going to play pi--ed all season trying to prove a point that THEY are still capable of great things!
The rest of Div. I is saying this is a down year for UCONN! This is the year to knock them off and Div. I is in for a shock! All of Geno's players say his greatest talent/gift is as a motivator!

I'll repeat what another poster said back in late April........"If UConn is not as potent next year as they were this year, it just means that they will win games by 15-20 points instead of 40".
Think about that until the season begins.