How good is UConn | Page 2 | The Boneyard

How good is UConn

UConn is certainly deeper than last season with lots more options available. In addition, the Huskies ability to pressure opponents, full court for 40 minutes is a game changing edge they did not have last season.

But there is one question that we won’t know the answer to until we know. Last season with Paige, and to a lesser extent Kaitlyn Chen, we had 2 superb game managers who could control the games and make the correct decisions when the games got tight.

Inevitably during the Big Dance UConn will run into a tough opponent who will challenge the Huskies. How UConn responds to that challenge will determine whether or not the Huskies earn championship #13.
 
Not wanting to stray too far from the topic but www.herhoopststs.com (For those BY'ers not familiar they produce weekly stat assessments of women's basketball.) Anyway, today they put out what they call a Win Variance Analysis that shows nine statistics about how teams win computed from all games or the season. It certainly looks comprehensive but my bringing it up on this forum is to find out from those who study and are familiar with b-ball stats more than perhaps the rest of us how they assess their analysis. Positive, negative or other?
 
oldude said:
UConn is certainly deeper than last season with lots more options available. In addition, the Huskies ability to pressure opponents, full court for 40 minutes is a game changing edge they did not have last season.

But there is one question that we won’t know the answer to until we know. Last season with Paige, and to a lesser extent Kaitlyn Chen, we had 2 superb game managers who could control the games and make the correct decisions when the games got tight.

Inevitably during the Big Dance UConn will run into a tough opponent who will challenge the Huskies. How UConn responds to that challenge will determine whether or not the Huskies earn championship #13.
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Very good point. Most teams particularly BE teams allow UConn to run their offense at their own pace. If a team like Texas is athletic and physical enough, they can mimic UConn and attack the ball handlers and high screens to gum up their offense and take advantage of their sometimes sloppy passing. And at the other end, instead of launching excessive 3s, attack them in the paint and mid range while drawing a lot of fouls. UConn hasn’t played anyone good enough to do those things yet. Maybe they will and we’ll see if UConn has the composure to handle it.
 
BobbyJ said:
Very good point. Most teams particularly BE teams allow UConn to run their offense at their own pace. If a team like Texas is athletic and physical enough, they can mimic UConn and attack the ball handlers and high screens to gum up their offense and take advantage of their sometimes sloppy passing. And at the other end, instead of launching excessive 3s, attack them in the paint and mid range while drawing a lot of fouls. UConn hasn’t played anyone good enough to do those things yet. Maybe they will and we’ll see if UConn has the composure to handle it.
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TX is my biggest concern because Vic is a defensive mastermind. At the same time they are not a great outside shooting team. The Longhorns pound the ball inside and beat teams from the midrange.

The Huskies are going to spread you out and force you to defend the floor. So if UConn goes small, how exactly is Oldacre going to defend Sarah?
 
BRS24 said:
My guess is dependent on how much Close has improved as an in-game coach. I'm betting that Geno has had his eyes on the other #1 seeds for a while.
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oldude said:
But there is one question that we won’t know the answer to until we know. Last season with Paige, and to a lesser extent Kaitlyn Chen, we had 2 superb game managers who could control the games and make the correct decisions when the games got tight.

Inevitably during the Big Dance UConn will run into a tough opponent who will challenge the Huskies. How UConn responds to that challenge will determine whether or not the Huskies earn championship #13.
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I'm absolutely with BRS24 regarding Cori Close. She's had some really good teams, and to my eye, a couple of those teams have really underachieved. Yesterday's game against Iowa was really impressive; let's see if the Bruins can keep up.

Regarding Olddude's post, I also agree (also with the one directly above that appeared since I began this post). Down the stretch, three players will have the ball in their hands most of the time: KK, Azzi, and Sarah. KK certainly has shown some jitters this season, but those are quickly waning. I think the outrageous assist-to-turnover ratio is an indication that she makes consistently good decisions. Azzi just has a way of getting things done; she looks good out there. And Sarah is the best-passing big since Gabby Williams. If she's directing traffic half the time late in the game, what are opponents going to do? I think Texas has the best answer to that in Madison Booker, another forward with guard skills. But if UConn goes with Sarah plus four guards (or three guards and Blanca), what can UCLA do? Have Betts on Strong? Dugalic on Strong and Betts on Blanca? I think South Carolina, with their plethora of long guards and a mobile big or two, would do much better than UCLA in that situation.
 
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Texas was impressive yesterday and I agree that they are the biggest concern. They should be the third ranked number one seed and UConn should stay as number one with a win tonight (March 10). And playing in Fort Worth will be a huge advantage for Texas.

I realize that watching a game on tv can be deceiving, but I don't see any of the top teams playing defense at the same frenetic pace and intensity of UConn. UConn's on ball defense and coverage of the passing lanes is at another level.

I don't worry much about turnovers or getting open shots. I do worry about giving up offensive rebounds, getting into foul trouble, or having one of those nights where there is a lid on the basket.
 
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This is the time of the year when it is one game at a time. You play the team next in line. Anything else is irrelevant.

The other point is any of the top 4 to 8 teams can go down before the final four.

South Carolina did not look good yesterday. UCLA did not get uch of a challenge from Iowa. Texas look good. But they still are a poor 3 point shooting team. Vic is a defensive minded coach. When all else fails, he clamps down of teams.

So the question is, can these teams beat UConn this season. The answer is maybe.

Can they handle UConn's pressure defense? That's the big question. Is any team capable of containing both Azzi and Sarah? Has any team the depth of UConn's bench - Blance, K9, Allie amd Jana.

Does any team have 4 guards like we do?

And finally, does anybody prepare their team better than Geno?
 
ESPN just released an article by Charlie C. in which he made a "case" for UCLA being the overall 1 seed. UCLA's resume is, by far, the best in the country with 18 quad 1 wins and they won the final over Iowa by 51 points. The committe has, however, spoken twice that UConn is the number 1 overall seed. I don't see that flipping, but weirder things have happened.
 
oldude said:
TX is my biggest concern because Vic is a defensive mastermind. At the same time they are not a great outside shooting team. The Longhorns pound the ball inside and beat teams from the midrange.

The Huskies are going to spread you out and force you to defend the floor. So if UConn goes small, how exactly is Oldacre going to defend Sarah?
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I don't know, that's his problem but it shouldn't be Oldacre. 😉 If it were me I'd probably rotate Judd, Crump, and Tidberry (all about Strong's size at 6-1) to play along with Booker and Carlton and the two guards Harmon and Lee.
 
Urshurak said:
ESPN just released an article by Charlie C. in which he made a "case" for UCLA being the overall 1 seed. UCLA's resume is, by far, the best in the country with 18 quad 1 wins and they won the final over Iowa by 51 points. The committe has, however, spoken twice that UConn is the number 1 overall seed. I don't see that flipping, but weirder things have happened.
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I posted the article in the Bracketology thread here. I don't think he's making a case, just pointing out what's already been done by the committee based on the data they had at those two dates.

The Bruins' metrics -- 18 Quad 1 wins, the top wins above bubble number, the best strength of schedule -- suggest they should be first. However, the Huskies have sat in that spot all season and remain the nation's lone unbeaten team. More significantly, the NCAA selection committee put UConn at No. 1 overall in both of its top-16 reveals this season. At the time of each of those announcements -- Feb. 14 and March 1 -- UCLA also held an advantage in those metrics -- and the committee still went with the Huskies.​
​
Nothing has changed on that front. Essentially, the committee has already spoken here, and UConn has been the consistent choice. The only element that has changed: The Bruins are now the Big Ten regular-season and tournament champions, with a Big Ten tournament finals performance that was near perfect, beating Iowa by 51 points. If the committee decides to change its mind and flip UConn and UCLA, that will have to be the rationale, not the numbers.​

And based on that last sentence, if UConn wins handily tonight, aka, by a huge margin, they have the same argument of beating the #2 team in the conference.
 
Urshurak said:
ESPN just released an article by Charlie C. in which he made a "case" for UCLA being the overall 1 seed. UCLA's resume is, by far, the best in the country with 18 quad 1 wins and they won the final over Iowa by 51 points. The committe has, however, spoken twice that UConn is the number 1 overall seed. I don't see that flipping, but weirder things have happened.
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I don’t read Crème’s article the same way. He discusses the only possible rationale for the committee to seed UCLA over UConn. But he does not advocate for that rationale. Furthermore, his own latest bracketology, done after yesterday’s games, continues to show UConn as the overall #1 seed.
 
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It will be very interesting who the #4 team will be in the tourney. Texas beat UCLA and SC twice. They lost to SC once. I think the order should be
  1. UConn
  2. UCLA
  3. Texas
  4. SC
It will be interesting if that's how it pans out. Logic says that's what it should be. The NET says SC should be 3 and Texas should be 4.
 
EricSD said:
It will be very interesting who the #4 team will be in the tourney. Texas beat UCLA and SC twice. They lost to SC once. I think the order should be
  1. UConn
  2. UCLA
  3. Texas
  4. SC
It will be interesting if that's how it pans out. Logic says that's what it should be. The NET says SC should be 3 and Texas should be 4.
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Net is just 1 of 12 components. Late season results, head to head and observable component (eye test) are three other components that favor TX.

Observable Component is also the single most important component for UConn being the #1 overall seed.
 
Urshurak said:
ESPN just released an article by Charlie C. in which he made a "case" for UCLA being the overall 1 seed. UCLA's resume is, by far, the best in the country with 18 quad 1 wins and they won the final over Iowa by 51 points. The committe has, however, spoken twice that UConn is the number 1 overall seed. I don't see that flipping, but weirder things have happened.
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Creme's article is just more P4 propaganda from ESPN. They do it in football, they do it in men's basketball and they do it in women's basketball.
 
UCMB88 said:
Creme's article is just more P4 propaganda from ESPN. They do it in football, they do it in men's basketball and they do it in women's basketball.
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Again, read the article. It asks a rhetorical question, then makes a theoretical argument. But Creme does not advocate for UCLA as the overall #1. In fact, he cites the prior committee reveals placing UConn #1 overall and states, “Nothing has changed.”
 
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oldude said:
Again, read the article. It asks a rhetorical question, then makes a theoretical argument. But Creme does not advocate for UCLA as the overall #1. In fact, he cites the prior committee reveals placing UConn #1 overall and states, “Nothing has changed.”
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If "nothing has changed", then why even bring it up in the article? The article could have said, UConn remains clearly the overall #1 seed, let's take a look at how the rest of the bracket shakes out.
 
Cornell Lt said:
Iowa is not that good, so no surprise in getting spanked by UCLA. UConn beat them earlier this year by 26
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And UCLA just beat them by 51!!!!! I believe 51 is much higher than 26. Iowa is 8th in Massey. Villanova is 38th and we only beat them by 14. UCLA is not going to fear us.
 
This season has been a great relief from the "How many players do we have healthy" days. I think the depth is what makes them better. I wouldn't say the starting five is better than having Paige, Azzi and Sarah on the court at the same time but being able to rest your starters has to be a plus heading to the post season. How good are they? I think they could put up a good game against anyone with just Kayleigh, Allie, Blanca, Jana, and Ayanna. Give me those starters in the America East or Atlantic 10 and we would smoke the division. Will UConn win another NC? If they have one of those games where they are chucking up bricks, and they've had a few lately, they will have a tough time with a really good team. Thats why they don't just hand out the trophy before the tournament is over.
 
UCMB88 said:
If "nothing has changed", then why even bring it up in the article? The article could have said, UConn remains clearly the overall #1 seed, let's take a look at how the rest of the bracket shakes out.
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ESPN airs the WBB selection show next Sunday night. If ESPN killed all the suspense beforehand they would be shooting themselves and, more importantly, their advertisers in the foot. ESPN didn’t become a multi-billion $ sports media company by not understanding self promotion.
 
BRS24 said:
My guess is dependent on how much Close has improved as an in-game coach. I'm betting that Geno has had his eyes on the other #1 seeds for a while.
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That kind of improvement is pretty hard to come by in a year. I think Cori is who she was last year. She'll keep closer watch over her flock maybe and keep their eyes on the prize. That is not an insignificant contribution to team performance.
 
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Husky fanatic said:
She misses more bunnies than Jana!
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Okot's last couple of games were not good, but a few weeks ago she was near unstoppable. Hopefully her terrific run was the aberration, not her lull.
 
I'm probably in the minority. But I'm ok with UCLA being ranked no. 1 overall for the tourney. They have an incredible resume this year and I for one think they are deserving if that's what the committee wants to do. Everything will be settled on the court and If I were Geno's staff I'd find a way to add any tiny motivation if we're number one overall by saying most of the country don't believe we deserve it, and if we are no. 2 overall, we show them how wrong they are.
 
I've never been in the camp with those thinking this year's team is better than last. I think last year's final four dominant performances should go down as among the most notable in the history of the sport.

And it seems clear that there are four teams that could give UConn a lot of trouble: UCLA, Scar, Texas, and LSU. I don't see UConn having a problem with anyone else, including Vanderbilt. I was about to anoint SCar as the team to beat, but KY gave them a game in Lexington, Old Miss gave them a game, and then Texas thumped them pretty good. So now they seem human. They have a formidable starting five but they're beatable.

Texas? I don't know. If they play as they did against Vandy, I'd like UConn's chances. As they did against SCar, much less so. But I really am concerned with UCLA. The two additions on the perimeter have made them a much better team than last year's. Kneepkins, it seems to me, is the key. Her shooting can take them over the top.
 
I was thinking about Geno's statement and rewatched last years semi-final and final. This year's team is currently not better than what I watched. Paige+Azzi+Sarah was absolutely insane.

Comparisons based on last year's final four games to the current team's form:
  • This KK better than Chen.
  • This Azzi marginally better than last year Azzi?
  • This Sarah is better than last year Sarah
  • Serah offensively better but defensively weaker than last year Jana
  • This Ashlynn -1000x to Paige (this is not a dis to Ashlynn, she's fantastic in her role)
  • Ziebell roughly equal to off the bench Ashlynn
  • K9 roughly equal to off the bench KK
  • This Jana roughly equal to Ice
  • We had nothing like Blanca last year.

Additional thoughts:
  • This regular season was much better than last year. Last year it took awhile (aka until SC game) to figure out who we were.
  • Azzi is overall better than last year, but she's not going to be much better than she was in the final four. She can fill the role of the late game closer, like she did in Q4 of Michigan game. I'll happily eat my words if Azzi scores 30 a game.
  • Offense runs through Sarah now, she like Paige, makes everyone better. Her role has shifted to help with play making, which has reduced her ability to rebound a bit. She's our MVP.
  • Need Blanca to return to form. Her defense is consistently a difference maker, but offensively inconsistent since returning.
  • Last year we had the 3 headed dragon that we just don’t have this year, they were so dang consistent. Its hard to make up for lack of Paige, even though her shooting wasn't on fire during the final four. We'll need to pray that if things get sticky one of Blanca or Allie will get hot.
 
RockyMTblue2 said:
That kind of improvement is pretty hard to come by in a year. I think Cori is who she was last year. She'll keep closer watch over her flock maybe and keep their eyes on the prize. That is not an insignificant contribution to team performance.
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The UCLA roster is just way more talented than last year. 6 seniors and super seniors is rare beyond rare. Rice is playing way better, Kneepkens and Leger-Walker also upgrades. Betts doesn't have to do it all this year. Cori has a lot of room for error. There really shouldn't be any shame in losing to that team.
 
Gus Mahler said:
I've never been in the camp with those thinking this year's team is better than last. I think last year's final four dominant performances should go down as among the most notable in the history of the sport.

And it seems clear that there are four teams that could give UConn a lot of trouble: UCLA, Scar, Texas, and LSU. I don't see UConn having a problem with anyone else, including Vanderbilt. I was about to anoint SCar as the team to beat, but KY gave them a game in Lexington, Old Miss gave them a game, and then Texas thumped them pretty good. So now they seem human. They have a formidable starting five but they're beatable.

Texas? I don't know. If they play as they did against Vandy, I'd like UConn's chances. As they did against SCar, much less so. But I really am concerned with UCLA. The two additions on the perimeter have made them a much better team than last year's. Kneepkins, it seems to me, is the key. Her shooting can take them over the top.
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Pretty good analysis. But UConn has a secret weapon if they match up with UCLA. Her name is Cori Close…., 😎
 
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