How good is UConn

[Woof]

Iowa is not that good, so no surprise in getting spanked by UCLA. UConn beat them earlier this year by 26

And UCLA just beat them by 51!!!!! I believe 51 is much higher than 26. Iowa is 8th in Massey. Villanova is 38th and we only beat them by 14. UCLA is not going to fear us.

 

[Willy96]

This season has been a great relief from the "How many players do we have healthy" days. I think the depth is what makes them better. I wouldn't say the starting five is better than having Paige, Azzi and Sarah on the court at the same time but being able to rest your starters has to be a plus heading to the post season. How good are they? I think they could put up a good game against anyone with just Kayleigh, Allie, Blanca, Jana, and Ayanna. Give me those starters in the America East or Atlantic 10 and we would smoke the division. Will UConn win another NC? If they have one of those games where they are chucking up bricks, and they've had a few lately, they will have a tough time with a really good team. Thats why they don't just hand out the trophy before the tournament is over.

 

[oldude]

If "nothing has changed", then why even bring it up in the article? The article could have said, UConn remains clearly the overall #1 seed, let's take a look at how the rest of the bracket shakes out.

ESPN airs the WBB selection show next Sunday night. If ESPN killed all the suspense beforehand they would be shooting themselves and, more importantly, their advertisers in the foot. ESPN didn’t become a multi-billion $ sports media company by not understanding self promotion.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

My guess is dependent on how much Close has improved as an in-game coach. I'm betting that Geno has had his eyes on the other #1 seeds for a while.

That kind of improvement is pretty hard to come by in a year. I think Cori is who she was last year. She'll keep closer watch over her flock maybe and keep their eyes on the prize. That is not an insignificant contribution to team performance.

 

[husky98]

She misses more bunnies than Jana!

Okot's last couple of games were not good, but a few weeks ago she was near unstoppable. Hopefully her terrific run was the aberration, not her lull.

 

[ABCDFE]

I'm probably in the minority. But I'm ok with UCLA being ranked no. 1 overall for the tourney. They have an incredible resume this year and I for one think they are deserving if that's what the committee wants to do. Everything will be settled on the court and If I were Geno's staff I'd find a way to add any tiny motivation if we're number one overall by saying most of the country don't believe we deserve it, and if we are no. 2 overall, we show them how wrong they are.

 

[Gus Mahler]

I've never been in the camp with those thinking this year's team is better than last. I think last year's final four dominant performances should go down as among the most notable in the history of the sport.

And it seems clear that there are four teams that could give UConn a lot of trouble: UCLA, Scar, Texas, and LSU. I don't see UConn having a problem with anyone else, including Vanderbilt. I was about to anoint SCar as the team to beat, but KY gave them a game in Lexington, Old Miss gave them a game, and then Texas thumped them pretty good. So now they seem human. They have a formidable starting five but they're beatable.

Texas? I don't know. If they play as they did against Vandy, I'd like UConn's chances. As they did against SCar, much less so. But I really am concerned with UCLA. The two additions on the perimeter have made them a much better team than last year's. Kneepkins, it seems to me, is the key. Her shooting can take them over the top.

 

[husky98]

I was thinking about Geno's statement and rewatched last years semi-final and final. This year's team is currently not better than what I watched. Paige+Azzi+Sarah was absolutely insane.

Comparisons based on last year's final four games to the current team's form:

• This KK better than Chen.
• This Azzi marginally better than last year Azzi?
• This Sarah is better than last year Sarah
• Serah offensively better but defensively weaker than last year Jana
• This Ashlynn -1000x to Paige (this is not a dis to Ashlynn, she's fantastic in her role)
• Ziebell roughly equal to off the bench Ashlynn
• K9 roughly equal to off the bench KK
• This Jana roughly equal to Ice
• We had nothing like Blanca last year.

Additional thoughts:

• This regular season was much better than last year. Last year it took awhile (aka until SC game) to figure out who we were.
• Azzi is overall better than last year, but she's not going to be much better than she was in the final four. She can fill the role of the late game closer, like she did in Q4 of Michigan game. I'll happily eat my words if Azzi scores 30 a game.
• Offense runs through Sarah now, she like Paige, makes everyone better. Her role has shifted to help with play making, which has reduced her ability to rebound a bit. She's our MVP.
• Need Blanca to return to form. Her defense is consistently a difference maker, but offensively inconsistent since returning.
• Last year we had the 3 headed dragon that we just don’t have this year, they were so dang consistent. Its hard to make up for lack of Paige, even though her shooting wasn't on fire during the final four. We'll need to pray that if things get sticky one of Blanca or Allie will get hot.

 

[husky98]

That kind of improvement is pretty hard to come by in a year. I think Cori is who she was last year. She'll keep closer watch over her flock maybe and keep their eyes on the prize. That is not an insignificant contribution to team performance.

The UCLA roster is just way more talented than last year. 6 seniors and super seniors is rare beyond rare. Rice is playing way better, Kneepkens and Leger-Walker also upgrades. Betts doesn't have to do it all this year. Cori has a lot of room for error. There really shouldn't be any shame in losing to that team.

 

[oldude]

I've never been in the camp with those thinking this year's team is better than last. I think last year's final four dominant performances should go down as among the most notable in the history of the sport.

And it seems clear that there are four teams that could give UConn a lot of trouble: UCLA, Scar, Texas, and LSU. I don't see UConn having a problem with anyone else, including Vanderbilt. I was about to anoint SCar as the team to beat, but KY gave them a game in Lexington, Old Miss gave them a game, and then Texas thumped them pretty good. So now they seem human. They have a formidable starting five but they're beatable.

Texas? I don't know. If they play as they did against Vandy, I'd like UConn's chances. As they did against SCar, much less so. But I really am concerned with UCLA. The two additions on the perimeter have made them a much better team than last year's. Kneepkins, it seems to me, is the key. Her shooting can take them over the top.

Pretty good analysis. But UConn has a secret weapon if they match up with UCLA. Her name is Cori Close…., 😎

 

[fomalhaut]

And UCLA just beat them by 51!!!!! I believe 51 is much higher than 26. Iowa is 8th in Massey. Villanova is 38th and we only beat them by 14. UCLA is not going to fear us.

Iowa had a horrendous shooting night: they're 6th in the country, but except for Ava Heiden they went 10-50. UCLA's defense is solid but not otherworldly. 20 of that 51 was poured on in the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. I still think UCLA is the second-best team in the country, but a lopsided win shouldn't be enough to flip the seeding this late in the season.

 

[Woof]

Iowa had a horrendous shooting night: they're 6th in the country, but except for Ava Heiden they went 10-50. UCLA's defense is solid but not otherworldly. 20 of that 51 was poured on in the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. I still think UCLA is the second-best team in the country, but a lopsided win shouldn't be enough to flip the seeding this late in the season.

You are probably right about the seeding but, if SC is #4, I want to be #2.

Anyway, the point still holds that it doesn't make sense to say that UCLA isn't close to UConn. By any metric, they are.

 

[EricSD]

It's so hard to compare a game that was #12 for both teams in the season (UConn vs. Iowa) vs. the very last game of the regular season in a conference championship game. Plus, UCLA was en fuego from 3 going 13-26 - a whopping 50% shooting. They don't shoot like that every game.

Still, UCLA had 6 players make a 3, all of them better than 33% for the day. That's some great shooting. Against us in a NC game, that would be tough to beat.

Honestly, I do think this UConn team is really good. I don't mean this as a criticism of any posters who have discussed it, but I don't care if we are better or worse than last year's team. All we need to be is better than the hopefully 6 teams we face in the tourney, even if it's just by 1 point.

Last year, our romp thru the 2 teams in the final 4 was epic. It was a testament to how dialed in the team was and how good the game plan was. This year we have more depth which will allow for more defensive intensity. How will that play out? No idea. Hopefully really well. I like our chances, but there isn't a universe where I would announce that we are "head and shoulders" better than everyone else in the country. And again, we don't need to be. Just a little bit better will work too.

 

[DemonDeac22]

First goal: win tonight.
Next goal: win the 1st 2 home NCAA games
After that: let’s not worry about that until the above goals are met.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

The UCLA roster is just way more talented than last year. 6 seniors and super seniors is rare beyond rare. Rice is playing way better, Kneepkens and Leger-Walker also upgrades. Betts doesn't have to do it all this year. Cori has a lot of room for error. There really shouldn't be any shame in losing to that team.

Oh, I agree, but I was responding the the notion that Cori is a signiicantly better coach.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Not wanting to stray too far from the topic but www.herhoopststs.com (For those BY'ers not familiar they produce weekly stat assessments of women's basketball.) Anyway, today they put out what they call a Win Variance Analysis that shows nine statistics about how teams win computed from all games or the season. It certainly looks comprehensive but my bringing it up on this forum is to find out from those who study and are familiar with b-ball stats more than perhaps the rest of us how they assess their analysis. Positive, negative or other?

It’s a good analysis. But one would caution against concluding something that the analysis does not really say, but may imply: that archetype dominant teams (the non-“versatile” teams) cannot win any other way.

The HerHoopStats article (here | methodology) relies on Dean Oliver’s Four Factors (a very brief description on UConn’s is here, updated with 3PA Rate):

• The analysis relies on residuals — winning in an archetype way (there are 5 identified archetypes this season) despite what an opponent usually does.

The dominant archetype top NET (adjusted Net Efficiency) teams in the article seem non-versatile simply because they don’t need to play anything else other than their (A) archetype game to win in the regular season.

• In the Final Four, such teams will clash, and who wins will depend on who can play their A archetype game better or who can better adjust.

In the Texas vs. South Carolina SEC finals, TX proved it can adjust:

• They are not as dependent on Harmon (! a big reason in their losses) and Booker, they were 4-7 from 3, and other people showed up; they still play at their scintillating pace (63 possessions);
• But to secure that win to be in the Fort Worth pod, Schaefer gave up a heads up; if anyone was underestimating TX, they sure aren’t anymore.

As for UCLA, they only have 1 loss but they only have 1 Final Four caliber game, which they lost.

• Their loss to TX (UCL 65, TEX 76 - FINAL) exposed their vulnerabilities to a defensive-minded team (they committed 10 turnovers more than TX, had 11 fewer FGAs and Harmon had a great game).
• Scoring-wise (TS%), UConn has better efficient scorers than UCLA; UCLA makes up for the inefficiency by crashing the boards (the archetype identified by HerHoopStats).

I have previously described UConn as an Operational Death Star — just how good they are is not yet revealed (or equally plausible, not yet tested).