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I’m circling this prediction.
How does UConn beat Creighton Tenn and SC
- Thread starter Tonyc
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Just as a way of gauging SC and Tennessee, the game this evening is quite revealing. SC looks mostly like they are a cut above, as expected, and especially in terms of sound fundamentals. By contrast, Tennessee looks quite ragged in terms of fundamentals. It may be inevitable for a pressing team that their half court defense is not very good, and especially their defensive rebounding. Little in the way of boxing out on that end of the floor, and very undeveloped help defense, which means they get beat off the dribble frequently. They get a lot of O-boards, but don't convert them very efficiently. That said, it's worth noting that SC's offense could occasionally look stagnant. It also seems like they are not used to being pressed and struggled on some inbounds plays.
It looks like Caldwell's game plan is to run as hard as they can and hope to tire opponents out and knock them out of their comfort zone. And if this doesn't work, they struggle with half court defense and offense. If they don't get their 3s to fall, they don't have much to fall back on. In effect, it's transition offense or nothing. A sign of this is that they took over 70 shots but only had 8 assists. Other than transition scores, it's all clearcuts and 3s. That is too narrow a style of offense to play at this level.
The one thing in Tennessee's favor is their depth. They can play like crap for long stretches, and then do a hockey line substitution and suddenly have a new energy. After an abysmal first 7 or 8 minutes in the 3rd, they subbed and went on a 10-2 run to cut the deficit to 14. The new energy helped the transition offense get SC a little off balance for much of the 4th quarter. The thing is, this was pretty exciting, but it wasn't enough to make up for the dry scoring stretches through much of the rest of the game. SC was able to collect themselves just enough to hold them off. It was a 7 point win for SC and it was as close as this suggests. Fatigue seems to have caused SC the most difficulty.
All in all, I think this bodes well for our game against Tennessee, assuming we can play at our pace. And one way to ensure this might be to press them for stretches. This would tend to disrupt their perimeter shooting. The main thing is to expect a 4th quarter surge in energy from them that will power a renewed full court press. This may mean that Geno wants to sub more in the first half to make sure Paige Azzi and Sarah are not tired out at the end. Admittedly, all of Tennessee's weaknesses are on display against the #1 defense in the country. But UConn is probably the #2 defense, so I think the analogy is fair.
It looks like Caldwell's game plan is to run as hard as they can and hope to tire opponents out and knock them out of their comfort zone. And if this doesn't work, they struggle with half court defense and offense. If they don't get their 3s to fall, they don't have much to fall back on. In effect, it's transition offense or nothing. A sign of this is that they took over 70 shots but only had 8 assists. Other than transition scores, it's all clearcuts and 3s. That is too narrow a style of offense to play at this level.
The one thing in Tennessee's favor is their depth. They can play like crap for long stretches, and then do a hockey line substitution and suddenly have a new energy. After an abysmal first 7 or 8 minutes in the 3rd, they subbed and went on a 10-2 run to cut the deficit to 14. The new energy helped the transition offense get SC a little off balance for much of the 4th quarter. The thing is, this was pretty exciting, but it wasn't enough to make up for the dry scoring stretches through much of the rest of the game. SC was able to collect themselves just enough to hold them off. It was a 7 point win for SC and it was as close as this suggests. Fatigue seems to have caused SC the most difficulty.
All in all, I think this bodes well for our game against Tennessee, assuming we can play at our pace. And one way to ensure this might be to press them for stretches. This would tend to disrupt their perimeter shooting. The main thing is to expect a 4th quarter surge in energy from them that will power a renewed full court press. This may mean that Geno wants to sub more in the first half to make sure Paige Azzi and Sarah are not tired out at the end. Admittedly, all of Tennessee's weaknesses are on display against the #1 defense in the country. But UConn is probably the #2 defense, so I think the analogy is fair.
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adc
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If Jana continues to start (big "if"), she needs to be able to produce 15 to 20 points per game. I watch a lot of TCU, Texas, Kansas St. games.... We need a dominant post scoring plus two of the others main three scoring..... Then really good things will happen and the season last much longer.... The teams mentioned have set plays to get the ball to the post player that almost guarantee a score or foul when shooting... Why can't UConn do the same....??
I put their as fab nine. Any moment any one of her nine player rotation can score double digits. Noodle on that. Just ridiculous the bevy of options for Dawn. We have maybe 4 players if you believe Shade is up to the challenge against top teams. Huge difference. Only thing we can potentially hang our hat in is that Paige/sarah/azzi HAS the potential to score 30.
True. Amazing to me about SC is their 3 best players Fulwiley, T Johnson and Edwards all come off the bench, but play big minutes. Dawn really practices what she preaches about loyalty, team, family and seniority keeping her starters in place.
A big challenge we have is that the players we hope will step up are all still very young: Ash, KK, Morgan, Jana and Ice. The rotation players at SC and ND are more experienced.
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Fulwiley played 9 mins today, and seemed mainly out of control. I take your point about Dawn’s rotation. But I don’t think Fulwiley is one of her best players. She is an outstanding athlete, but only so-so as a basketball player. By contrast, Tessa is a tremendous basketball player, one of the real gems of that recruiting class.
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Watched some UT-SC, and not sure we can run with either. We’ll need to play our game, and we’ll need a much bigger contribution from our bigs.
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Well, one reason is that the teams you mentioned all have tremendously experienced post players! Jana is a freshman who is very inexperienced and who plays on a team where the post is a complementary piece, not the main focus! She will get there and be a good to great player for us but she is simply not ready to play that role yet. I do believe she is getting better but she’s just not there yet!
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After watching the SC/Ten game, my thoughts have not changed. We can win against Tennessee, but we have to finish our shots on layups and make good shot selections and make our shots. We like to settle for the pull up jumper. Nothing wrong with that, as long as we are making those shots, and we have decent rebounding to put back the missed shots.
I worry about players like Jana and Sarah in the track meet against the Lady Vols but then I figure we have Morgan who is a decent rebounder and Ice. Will Sarah and Jana be able to handle that pace? Will Morgan and Ice, if they miss an assignment or a shot or two, will they get pulled and have to sit the bench putting more pressure on Sarah and Jana. Will Coach go deep with the bench? We have capable players. Just a matter of how confident those players in the heat of the battle and we won't know for sure until we see them in the heat of the moment. The same with South Carolina. To be honest, I don't see us beating South Carolina because of their depth and how Coach Staley uses her bench vs the way we use our bench.
I worry about players like Jana and Sarah in the track meet against the Lady Vols but then I figure we have Morgan who is a decent rebounder and Ice. Will Sarah and Jana be able to handle that pace? Will Morgan and Ice, if they miss an assignment or a shot or two, will they get pulled and have to sit the bench putting more pressure on Sarah and Jana. Will Coach go deep with the bench? We have capable players. Just a matter of how confident those players in the heat of the battle and we won't know for sure until we see them in the heat of the moment. The same with South Carolina. To be honest, I don't see us beating South Carolina because of their depth and how Coach Staley uses her bench vs the way we use our bench.
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I agree with almost all of your points, but I think Sarah will be OK with the pace vs. Tennessee. She's so poised with the ball in her hands, and her conditioning is excellent. I don't think she'll wilt under their pressure. (Fingers crossed!)
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Now you have me wondering if Tennessee could turn out to be Morgan’s breakout game. It’s not just about rebounding. She’s also a good ball handler who runs the court really well. That could be important against Tennessee.
It’s interesting how certain elements always seem to appear on pressing teams. Cooper, Spearman and Whitehorn get blocks not because they’re tall (though Spearman is) but because they run the floor well. This is a good bunch to run a press with because they’re athletic and quick. The opposing team, when they break the press is vulnerable to blocks from behind if they try to get a quick score.
What does this mean for UConn? Well, UConn is also a pressing team (though not on the scale Tennessee is) and knows how to make those same blocks and also knows how to finish in transition. Paige and Sarah are masters at using their bodies to score on the break and force a foul. Aubrey is supreme at this, and Ash is pretty good at it, too.
Whatever happens, UConn has to break their press and score against it to discourage it. One way is to force Tennessee to play half court defense. Another is to press them back. But you can’t press if you don’t score. And some of our players have experience in pressing defense — I’m thinking particularly of Kaitlyn and Azzi, but also Sarah Ash and Morgan, each of whom played the ’tip of the spear’ on their HS team’s press. Sarah is especially good at trapping at midcourt. And of course, Paige is really good at forcing turnovers on inbounds plays.
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Bigboote
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Plus, Hollingshead and Spearman are Tennesse’s only players taller than 6-2. They’re good, but I think Jana and Ice will match up pretty well.
ETA: Regarding pressing and Morgan, UConn should have four good ball handlers on the floor at all times. There should be three of the guard corps of Paige, Kaitlyn, Azzi, KK, and Ashlynn. Kaitlyn is the only one of those averaging much more than one turnover per game, and she’s reduced that recently. Add some length with Sarah and Morgan. And Ice, with some length and who is a very good passer, can be somewhat up the court to receive a pass and hit a cutter or an open three-point shooter.
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Rebound, rebound, rebound. Offensively and defensively. I don't know what the answer is, perhaps Geno does, but we do not have a true rebounder on our team and when you play athletic teams like South Carolina that proves to be the glaring weakness.
I don’t think Jana is going to play all that much especially against Tennessee and maybe South Carolina. There’s only one month left in the regular season and she still has not adjusted to playing college ball in the United States. Last two games her time on the court has been in the single digits. I think Geno will go with a combination of Ice Brady and Sarah down low, and may even some hi/low between the two.
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Generally I agree. I think Geno will give Jana the benefit of the doubt to prove herself in the next 2 BE games, but she is probably a year away (and needs a dedicated training effort over the summer). As you stated I expect him to go with Ice against TN and SC, but I am hoping that Morgan can get in that conversation as well. She has less experience but is quicker and faster and has "The Dog".
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Now that I've had a chance to digest the last couple of SC games, I may be changing my sense of where they may be going this year. Up til now, we've all noticed their depth and athleticism, and this has led us to understand that they don't have a great scorer. Joyce could be one, as could Milaysia, but there's caveats with them. And Chloe is a capable scorer, and Te-Hina is a solid perimeter scorer, and Tessa is clutch. Depth is what makes up for the lack of any standout scorer, and there athleticism is what generate that awesome defense. This is why I still think of them as the most likely to win the title, with ND and UCLA as the next most likely.
But I'm beginning to wonder how much depth SC really has after the Tennessee game. They won the game even though it was closer than Dawn may have liked at the end. And the reason Dawn gave for Tennessee's late run was "fatigue." That's a flashing red light for me. Dawn surely knew they were tired in the 4th but apparently couldn't find a group to put on the floor that would solve the fatigue problem.
Looking at the SC roster again, what I see is a rotation of 7 + Milaysia. Yes, McDaniel is good for a few minutes, but she doesn't strike me a a go to player in a pinch. And after her, and without Watkins, it's just the 3 bench warming bigs, Walker Dauda and Tac.
That first 7 is a formidable lineup and I can't picture a lot of teams that could stand up to them. And Milaysia could be great too, but she is currently not all that great. 7 doesn't strike me as great depth, but in the 4th quarter they got tired. They are very athletic, but in the tournament, this could be a vulnerability, though the only teams who might be able to exploit it have to be able to score against that defense, or at least prevent them from blowing the game out before the 4th quarter.
Also, if Tac Dauda and Walker can't contribute in crunch time, then SC is a significantly smaller team than most of us are used to seeing. SC's big are athletic enough to make it hard for UCLA's guards to get the ball into Betts, as they did in November. Then it's a matter of UCLA's guards not caving to SC's defense and vice versa. They didn't last time. This is where the battle will be in a rematch.
I think something similar is possible for ND. Their bigs are bigger, but not as athletic as SC's. But their guards are as athletic as any team's and they all are talented scorers. They should be able to shoot ND past either SC or UCLA on a good night. And if SC can be worn down over the course of a game, Hannah and Olivia are the pair to do it.
I don't know if UConn can beat SC, and if we can it may not be in this first meeting. But we aren't the only team that should take heart from the Tennessee game. What would it take for us to win. Great shooting, great defense, and good rebounding.
But I'm beginning to wonder how much depth SC really has after the Tennessee game. They won the game even though it was closer than Dawn may have liked at the end. And the reason Dawn gave for Tennessee's late run was "fatigue." That's a flashing red light for me. Dawn surely knew they were tired in the 4th but apparently couldn't find a group to put on the floor that would solve the fatigue problem.
Looking at the SC roster again, what I see is a rotation of 7 + Milaysia. Yes, McDaniel is good for a few minutes, but she doesn't strike me a a go to player in a pinch. And after her, and without Watkins, it's just the 3 bench warming bigs, Walker Dauda and Tac.
That first 7 is a formidable lineup and I can't picture a lot of teams that could stand up to them. And Milaysia could be great too, but she is currently not all that great. 7 doesn't strike me as great depth, but in the 4th quarter they got tired. They are very athletic, but in the tournament, this could be a vulnerability, though the only teams who might be able to exploit it have to be able to score against that defense, or at least prevent them from blowing the game out before the 4th quarter.
Also, if Tac Dauda and Walker can't contribute in crunch time, then SC is a significantly smaller team than most of us are used to seeing. SC's big are athletic enough to make it hard for UCLA's guards to get the ball into Betts, as they did in November. Then it's a matter of UCLA's guards not caving to SC's defense and vice versa. They didn't last time. This is where the battle will be in a rematch.
I think something similar is possible for ND. Their bigs are bigger, but not as athletic as SC's. But their guards are as athletic as any team's and they all are talented scorers. They should be able to shoot ND past either SC or UCLA on a good night. And if SC can be worn down over the course of a game, Hannah and Olivia are the pair to do it.
I don't know if UConn can beat SC, and if we can it may not be in this first meeting. But we aren't the only team that should take heart from the Tennessee game. What would it take for us to win. Great shooting, great defense, and good rebounding.
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the scary thing about the SC - Tennesse game which UT lost by seven points was that Tennessee out rebounded SC by 11 on the offensive glass and 9 overall and only shot 30.7% from two and 11.5% from three.......they are no pushovers......
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But I think they only scored 2 points off those O-boards. Maybe I’m misremembering. But it didn’t seem to me that they gained much advantage from them.
vaeman
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I get not being blindly confident going into big games but the doom-n-gloom I see posted on the BY associated with our upcoming TN and SC match-ups is well beyond "Debbie Downer-eque". I watched the recent TN v SC game and was not impressed. Both teams made mistakes that BYers would lambaste UConn if we follow suit. Turn-overs. Missed bunnies. meh 3 point shooting etc.. ANY team can get hot and shoot the lights out. So can UConn.
The next time I see a comment like "the only way we beat SC is if the game is cancelled due to snow", I will
The next time I see a comment like "the only way we beat SC is if the game is cancelled due to snow", I will
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Tonyc
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A disciplined offense will produce a lot of points at a very high percentage meaning
Patience = running plays to get people open. Paige Sarah Azzi and Ash
Poise = Dont rush a short or get sped up
Energy = Play at a go go go go level. Constant movement
Execution = Running plays, setting pics and pics and rolls screens
Spot Shots = Having spots on the floor where you know you can make shots Running plays to get you there. Offensively Allie could play a big part in big games
We have shooters that shoot at a very high percentage. We need to get them open.
We have a lineup of good ball handlers
Have Sarah/Morgan (a Big) bring the ball up in a press She will be guarded by a big girl and that works in our favor
Patience = running plays to get people open. Paige Sarah Azzi and Ash
Poise = Dont rush a short or get sped up
Energy = Play at a go go go go level. Constant movement
Execution = Running plays, setting pics and pics and rolls screens
Spot Shots = Having spots on the floor where you know you can make shots Running plays to get you there. Offensively Allie could play a big part in big games
We have shooters that shoot at a very high percentage. We need to get them open.
We have a lineup of good ball handlers
Have Sarah/Morgan (a Big) bring the ball up in a press She will be guarded by a big girl and that works in our favor
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I would say Sarah is a true rebounder.
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Wow! That really is scary! To shoot that poorly and stay within 7 of South Carolina is unbelievable! We’d better pack a serious lunch for that game!
I would just point out that Caldwell is doing this with other coaches players too! They are going to be a real problem when she fills her roster with elite players handpicked for her system! That is a scary thought!
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Dawn attributed the Tennessee run first and foremost to really really bad decisions and bad shots.
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It seemed like her explanation for the bad decisions was fatigue.
Agree x 1000!
Q shares the athleticism (with Aubry) but not the experience in fast pace, high pressure games; still may need her to give somebody a breather
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The TN game will be a real test of our ability to play against a team that has all the attributes described above. Full court pressure, transition offense, great rebounding, etc. They do not shoot well from 3 and look mostly to score via layups on one to one matchups. I expect that to be successful we would have to try to slow down the game with more use of a half court game and really, really make our 3's. We will have to collapse in and pack the paint on defense forcing them to shoot from the outside. I believe having this game now will provide Geno with a good look at how he needs to prepare for SC.
Agree with you on Sarah, and she’s athletic for a big girl, excellent ball handler, very smart with her hands on defense. Her and Griffin on floor together should complement each other beautifully. I’d like to see Sarah, Aubrey, Paige, Azzi and Ash or KK on floor together. Maybe not as starters but I think any team would find those 5 tough opponents. Maybe subbing in Ice for Aubrey at times.
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