Hot Stove

[Dooley]

Look, the guy is 30 years old. Paying for players' decline years is exaclty how the Yankees got into the position they're in now. Paying David Price at age 30 for 7 years and $180 Million is absolutely ludicrous.

Would I like to see Price in pinstripes next year ? Definitely. Would I still want to see him in 2020 clogging the roster the way Sabathia is now ? Hell no.

Besides, Price is more likely to get in the $190 to $195 M range, not $180M. If you want to spend that much, Jason Heyward at age 25 is an infinitely better option for them to break their recent stance against big name free agents. While many of their starters have lingering question marks, they have more starters than starting slots. Price would certainly be better than all of them, but they don't necessarily NEED pitching as much as offense anyhow. Evoldi, Pineda, Tanaka, and Severino is a pretty formidable 1-4 with Nova, Warren, and Sabathia looking to fill the last slot.

All of this makes sense except for one thing - if the Yanks threw in an attractive opt-out clause or front load the deal, they can protect themselves from the back end. You offer a 7 year deal and front load it. After year 3 or 4, you offer an opt out. Because the money was front loaded, Price might opt out to try to secure more money in the back end of his career. The Yanks could have walked away from CC when he opted out and should have. Ditto for ARod. Here's an example of something the Yanks (or anyone) should offer:

Total deal - 7 years/$190M
Years 1-3 - $100M (annual average over $30M/yr)
Years 4-7 - $90M (annual average around $22.5M/yr)

The back-end isn't terrible so if Price stays in, you still get value in years 4 and maybe 5. Year 6 and 7 have the potential of being bad. You're paying top dollar for prime years and less for aged years.

In no world am I giving Jason Heyward a $300M deal, or anywhere near that, like the one he is rumored to be seeking just because he's "young". I would sign Cespedes or Upton for half of that, thank you very much. Heyward is a premier defender but he's a 6 hole hitter, at best, and prone to nagging injuries. For me, he's a complete PASS.

 

[Rico444]

Pink hat? That's probably the worst insult you could give a diehard red sox fan...

As for delusional, I was never suggesting that any GM would ever make those moves, but that is the only instance where Boston would part with Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts. Both guys are in their early twenties, aren't arbitration eligible for a couple of years (low AAV's) and were all-star caliber players according to WAR last season (Bogaerts 4.3 WAR & Betts 4.8 WAR) where a 4-5 win above replacement player is considered an all-star level. People can talk up the Mets starting pitchers all they want, but at the end of the day, position players have way more value than any sort of starting pitcher. Good pitchers can be found anywhere, but a starter who pitches every five days with the risk of injury that ends with TJS is not worth an all-star caliber position player who will give you 140-150 games worth of production.

I agree that position players are more valuable than pitchers of otherwise equal value, but I think you're overstating how much. Good pitchers can be found anywhere? Is that why David Price is going to get $200+ million?

If we could get Betts for Harvey, I'd be happy, but because of the years of control left for both player, Noah Syndergaard for Betts is probably more likely to be a fair deal.

 

[Dooley]

Jose Fernandez on the market??? IF he is, the Sox should go all in for him.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...arlins-may-be-looking-to-trade-jose-fernandez

 

[Deadrody]

...... elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers......

Not even remotely true

 

[Deadrody]

All of this makes sense except for one thing - if the Yanks threw in an attractive opt-out clause or front load the deal, they can protect themselves from the back end. You offer a 7 year deal and front load it. After year 3 or 4, you offer an opt out.

So in this universe, when a player enters his decline years and his skills no longer match the salary, you expect them to opt out of their lucrative contract and expect someone to pay them MORE money for LESS productions ?

 

[Dooley]

So in this universe, when a player enters his decline years and his skills no longer match the salary, you expect them to opt out of their lucrative contract and expect someone to pay them MORE money for LESS productions ?

In this universe, CC did it and secured more money. Cliff Lee got 5 years/$120M amidst rumors that New York and Texas outbid the Phillies offer at age 32, going into 33 season. Those are the two best lefty "comps" from recent history. James Shields eventually got his 4 years/$75M at age 33 season. Jon Lester's contract is front loaded.

If Price pitches well in years 1-3 and stays healthy, why wouldn't he? The Yanks would feel pressured into re-signing him and there might be a be bidding war from rival teams just to get him away from New York. He's not going to get much more than the $20M/yr for years 4-6/7...but he could get more $20M years for additional year(s). If he thought that he could sign a Cliff Lee contract at age 33, why wouldn't he want to do that??

 

[Deadrody]

In this universe, CC did it and secured more money. Cliff Lee got 5 years/$120M amidst rumors that New York and Texas outbid the Phillies offer at age 32, going into 33 season. Those are the two best lefty "comps" from recent history. James Shields eventually got his 4 years/$75M at age 33 season. Jon Lester's contract is front loaded.

If Price pitches well in years 1-3 and stays healthy, why wouldn't he? The Yanks would feel pressured into re-signing him and there might be a be bidding war from rival teams just to get him away from New York. He's not going to get much more than the $20M/yr for years 4-6/7...but he could get more $20M years for additional year(s). If he thought that he could sign a Cliff Lee contract at age 33, why wouldn't he want to do that??

It's really this simple - if he is declining, he isn't going to opt out. End of story. If he isn't declining, he will. And the team that signs him is almost sure to RE-sign him.

 

[Dooley]

It's really this simple - if he is declining, he isn't going to opt out. End of story. If he isn't declining, he will. And the team that signs him is almost sure to RE-sign him.

Well, after seeing the deal that Price signed, there is NO way he is opting out. Declining skills or not. The money the Sox are paying isn't front-loaded. The opt out is after year 3 (2018) and years 1-3 pay him $30M/yr each. That leaves 4 years $127M still on the table. There is no team in baseball, other than the Red Sox (i.e. Dave Dombroski) who will give a pitcher entering his age 34 season 4 years @ $127M. The best he could do is James Shields money - 4 years $75M.

Even if there isn't a no-trade clause, this deal pretty much ties Price to Boston for the full 7 years of the pact. The money is absolutely immovable. The Sox would need to package up younger assets AND eat a ton of money to move him when he gets older and even more expensive.

This contract is a perfect example of Dave Dombroski being Dave Dombroski. He will wipe out Boston's farm system and financial flexibility in less than a year.

 

[Dove]

Zack Greinke to DBacks for just 34+ million/season. 6 years of that, too

 

[Dooley]

Horrendous contract for Greinke. This makes Price look like a steal. Arizona is essentially paying Greinke $200M for 2 good seasons and a bunch of decline. No way he posts the same ERA/WHIP pitching in The Pool as he did at Dodger Stadium.

 

[mauconnfan]

They both are horrendous contracts. Wow

Good news for Yankee fans they'll pretty much have the same horrendous team next year to trot out there, no movement in the Bronx these days

 

[Dooley]

Iwakuma to the LAD on a decent 3yr pact. If you are a fantasy player, target this guy in those 2nd tier middle round SPs.

 

[Dooley]

Then there is this...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: #Dodgers agree to acquire Chapman from #Reds for two prospects. Deal is pending review of medical records, sources say.

 

[Dove]

Then there is this...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: #Dodgers agree to acquire Chapman from #Reds for two prospects. Deal is pending review of medical records, sources say.

Iwakuma is a sleeper. Injured quite a bit recently.

And these prospects better be top 3 in Dodgers organization.

 

[The Viking]

A lot of smoke the Sox are close to sending Wade Miley to the Mariners.
Not sure for who maybe bullpen help?

 

[Dove]

The prospects of getting Jose Fernandez is just TOO(!!) giggety.

Judge, Miller and ???

 

[The Viking]

Miley to Mariners official just waiting to hear the return

 

[Stainmaster]

Miley to Mariners official just waiting to hear the return

Carson Smith (solid young reliever) and Roenis Elias (quality swingman). Also giving up Jonathan Aro.

 

[The Viking]

Miley and Aro for Carson smith and Elias nice haul for Miley, who is a solid 4 in the Al east.
Carson smith is a great power arm in the pen. Smith uehara and Kimbrel now. Dombrowski isnt messing around.
Elias is maybe a number 5 best case number 4. Not as good as Miley of course but not a bad throw in

 

[Dooley]

I think Miley is absolute hot garbage so I actually think this deal is quite good for Boston. If it was Miley straight up for Smith, I'd favor the Sox. Elias is a nice innings eater with good supporting stats. Don't know much about Aro to be honest, but just like the fact that Miley is gone.

 

[Dooley]

The prospects of getting Jose Fernandez is just TOO(!!) giggety.

Judge, Miller and ???

Absolutely. Judge, Miller, Sanchez are a good starting point. Other teams will be able to offer better prospects but the idea of throwing Miller in the deal might be intriguing for Miami, especially if the Yanks are willing to eat a little bit of that salary. Throw in a few more prospects and we might have something.

 

[Dove]

Aaoron Hicks article. Think this guy, now with Chris Young gone, is a 20 homer guy.

Aaron Hicks

 

[zyron]

Sterling Castro to the Yankees has supposedly been agreed upon, but not finalized. For Adam Warren.

 

[Dooley]

Warren and Brendan Ryan for Castro. No money involved.

 

[storrsroars]

Then there is this...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: #Dodgers agree to acquire Chapman from #Reds for two prospects. Deal is pending review of medical records, sources say.

Who's medical records are they checking, Chapman's or the people he's assaulted?

AZ got bamboozled. Shelby Miller isn't worth Dansby Swanson. The next decade's Atlanta Braves dynasty is almost complete.