Hot Stove

[Deepster]

Deepster stop with the overreaction. Betts has crushed it at every minor league level and in his first full year as a 22 year old had 17 jacks and 20 steals. He's also played good defensive CF after being a 2b his whole life. He is a ridiculous athlete and I'm not sure it would be crazy to see him as a 25 hr 30 Sb guy as early as next year when he's still 3 or 4 years from his prime.
Of course in your eyes every team has 2 or 3 Betts.
If you don't want to trade Thor straight up for betts that's fine but chill a bit.
Oh and by the way Bogaerts is also a boras client and will be hitting free agency just about the time Harvey is

I'm not overreacting. You are.

Syndergaard made his debut in May. He's 23. He's 6'6", 240 lbs and threw more pitches 95+ than anyone else in the majors this year. Oh, and he won Game 2 of the NLCS and Game 3 of the World Series a couple weeks ago. He's a guy at the top of your rotation that wins you a World Series someday. I wouldn't trade that for a guy that will likely turn out to be Carl Crawford v2.0.

 

[Stainmaster]

I wouldn't trade that for a guy that will likely turn out to be Carl Crawford v2.0.

This is pure, unadulterated BS. You should lose your license for discussing baseball over this statement.

 

[Deadrody]

If David Price isn't the Yankees #1 target, then they need to bow out of free agency altogether.

Look, the guy is 30 years old. Paying for players' decline years is exaclty how the Yankees got into the position they're in now. Paying David Price at age 30 for 7 years and $180 Million is absolutely ludicrous.

Would I like to see Price in pinstripes next year ? Definitely. Would I still want to see him in 2020 clogging the roster the way Sabathia is now ? Hell no.

Besides, Price is more likely to get in the $190 to $195 M range, not $180M. If you want to spend that much, Jason Heyward at age 25 is an infinitely better option for them to break their recent stance against big name free agents. While many of their starters have lingering question marks, they have more starters than starting slots. Price would certainly be better than all of them, but they don't necessarily NEED pitching as much as offense anyhow. Evoldi, Pineda, Tanaka, and Severino is a pretty formidable 1-4 with Nova, Warren, and Sabathia looking to fill the last slot.

 

[The Viking]

Other than the fact they aren't the same player as Betts is showing more power potential.
Regardless Carl Crawford was a hell of a player until he hit 29/30. You'd complain about that?

 

[Alum86]

Mets need a SS. Flores, the crybaby, had zero rbi's in WS. Tejada is jyst as bad.
Ian Desmond.

No Cespedes. Tender Murph, let him take more elsewhere if he is offered.

Please cut Kirk N loose. Please.

 

[Deepster]

Other than the fact they aren't the same player as Betts is showing more power potential.
Regardless Carl Crawford was a hell of a player until he hit 29/30. You'd complain about that?

I wouldn't "complain" about that....but I certainly wouldn't trade an ace-quality, potential Cy Young winner for it right now.

 

[mauconnfan]

Desmond the error machine? When you have pitching like the Mets you need to be strong up the middle for support. A SS who can hit a little but makes a ton of errors doesn't fit into the scheme all that well form what I see. And D'rnaud can't throw Deepster out stealing so find him another position too. Like his bat but he's just not that good defensively.

 

[Dove]

The Yankees acquired an intriguing player from the Twins in OF Aaron Hicks. A guy probably projected to be their leadoff hitter in 2016 was acquired for Yankee catcher John Ryan Murphy:

ESPN Write-Up

Aaron Hicks Stats

 

[1999.2004.2011]

There is a 0% chance that Boston trades Bogaerts or Betts for anyone, unless they were getting either Trout, Harper, Bryant or Correa in return. I know that Boston needs a front line starter (or two), but elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers. Bogaerts and Betts are both in their early 20's with multiple years of team control at the league minimum, yet are already posting all star quality WAR at premium positions. If Boston signs a pitcher like Price or Cueto, the pipedream of Harvey for Betts will completely dry up.

 

[mauconnfan]

There is a 0% chance that Boston trades Bogaerts or Betts for anyone, unless they were getting either Trout, Harper, Bryant or Correa in return. I know that Boston needs a front line starter (or two), but elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers. Bogaerts and Betts are both in their early 20's with multiple years of team control at the league minimum, yet are already posting all star quality WAR at premium positions. If Boston signs a pitcher like Price or Cueto, the pipedream of Harvey for Betts will completely dry up.

Pipedream? That's not even a dream unless he blows his elbow out again then maybe a straight up for Betts.

 

[zyron]

but elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers..

Yeah, Okay

 

[8893]

There is a 0% chance that Boston trades Bogaerts or Betts for anyone, unless they were getting either Trout, Harper, Bryant or Correa in return. I know that Boston needs a front line starter (or two), but elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers. Bogaerts and Betts are both in their early 20's with multiple years of team control at the league minimum, yet are already posting all star quality WAR at premium positions. If Boston signs a pitcher like Price or Cueto, the pipedream of Harvey for Betts will completely dry up.

I can't decide which sentence is most delusional. Were you wearing your pink hat when you wrote that?

Thanks for the laugh.

 

[60'sfan]

There is a 0% chance that Boston trades Bogaerts or Betts for anyone, unless they were getting either Trout, Harper, Bryant or Correa in return. I know that Boston needs a front line starter (or two), but elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers. Bogaerts and Betts are both in their early 20's with multiple years of team control at the league minimum, yet are already posting all star quality WAR at premium positions. If Boston signs a pitcher like Price or Cueto, the pipedream of Harvey for Betts will completely dry up.

Totally agree. Why trade an elite position player for a pitcher who could easily blow out an elbow especially a young pitcher? The Sox have the money to sign a free agent or two without destroying their lineup.

 

[8893]

I do agree that a major Sox-Mets trade is extremely unlikely since the Sox gave up so much for Kimbrel. They'll break the bank for Price, and they'll have to.

 

[Deepster]

There is a 0% chance that Boston trades Bogaerts or Betts for anyone, unless they were getting either Trout, Harper, Bryant or Correa in return. I know that Boston needs a front line starter (or two), but elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers. Bogaerts and Betts are both in their early 20's with multiple years of team control at the league minimum, yet are already posting all star quality WAR at premium positions. If Boston signs a pitcher like Price or Cueto, the pipedream of Harvey for Betts will completely dry up.

Mookie Betts for Mike Trout, huh? Wow. That's easily one of the most delusional things I've ever read on this board.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

I can't decide which sentence is most delusional. Were you wearing your pink hat when you wrote that?

Thanks for the laugh.

Pink hat? That's probably the worst insult you could give a diehard red sox fan...

As for delusional, I was never suggesting that any GM would ever make those moves, but that is the only instance where Boston would part with Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts. Both guys are in their early twenties, aren't arbitration eligible for a couple of years (low AAV's) and were all-star caliber players according to WAR last season (Bogaerts 4.3 WAR & Betts 4.8 WAR) where a 4-5 win above replacement player is considered an all-star level. People can talk up the Mets starting pitchers all they want, but at the end of the day, position players have way more value than any sort of starting pitcher. Good pitchers can be found anywhere, but a starter who pitches every five days with the risk of injury that ends with TJS is not worth an all-star caliber position player who will give you 140-150 games worth of production.

 

[8893]

but at the end of the day, position players have way more value than any sort of starting pitcher. Good pitchers can be found anywhere, but a starter who pitches every five days with the risk of injury that ends with TJS is not worth an all-star caliber position player who will give you 140-150 games worth of production.

Yeah, I just don't agree with this at all, and I think most people who know the game well don't, either.

Even just considering Harvey, he's already had TJS and in his first season back--which had some bumps in the road--his WAR was 4.3. His WAR the season prior to his TJS was 5.2. If you saw how he finished the season you would see that he was getting stronger, and the reasonable expectation is that he's going to be a beast next season and for the foreseeable future. If the Sox are in "win now" mode, as seems to be the indication by how much they were willing to give up for Kimbrel, I don't think they could do better than Harvey. But as I noted, they don't have a lot left to trade, so they will have to break the bank for Price. If they end up with someone like Cueto instead and you think he's equivalent to Harvey, well good luck with that.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Yeah, I just don't agree with this at all, and I think most people who know the game well don't, either.

Even just considering Harvey, he's already had TJS and in his first season back--which had some bumps in the road--his WAR was 4.3. His WAR the season prior to his TJS was 5.2. If you saw how he finished the season you would see that he was getting stronger, and the reasonable expectation is that he's going to be a beast next season and for the foreseeable future. If the Sox are in "win now" mode, as seems to be the indication by how much they were willing to give up for Kimbrel, I don't think they could do better than Harvey. But as I noted, they don't have a lot left to trade, so they will have to break the bank for Price. If they end up with someone like Cueto instead and you think he's equivalent to Harvey, well good luck with that.

It's not necessarily about equivalents, but it's the inherent cost of acquiring said players. Since cash isn't necessarily a restriction for the red sox, I could easily make the argument that signing Cueto to approx. $15M AAV and keeping Bogaerts/Betts is a much better deal than trading away either Bogaerts/Betts for Harvey (who is arbitration eligible this season and will probably command a $25M AAV contract for six years when he becomes a free agent).

The whole argument that the Red Sox gave away too many prospects for Kimbrel is laughable. Margot was the only prospect of any note that was going in the deal, but most scouts agree that his ceiling is pretty limited as a major league player. Even after "depleting" their farm system in the Kimbrel trade, Boston still has one of the top 3 minor league rosters in baseball with Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Travis and Marrero.

 

[Dooley]

The Kimbrel trade tells me two things:

1. the Sox are going to do whatever it takes to make sure that they land Price or Greinke or Cueto. You can't have a premium closer with that starting rotation in front of him. They are all in this offseason...which is why Dave Dombrowski was hired in the first place;

2. they didn't deal Rafael Devers - he would be a package headliner that no other club in baseball could match, except for the Dodgers if they float Corey Seager...but it's doubtful they would do that. So if the Sox decide that they do want to trade for a SP (ex - if they can't get one of the 3 above), then Devers would be able to acquire a front line starter.

 

[8893]

It's not necessarily about equivalents, but it's the inherent cost of acquiring said players. Since cash isn't necessarily a restriction for the red sox, I could easily make the argument that signing Cueto to approx. $15M AAV and keeping Bogaerts/Betts is a much better deal than trading away either Bogaerts/Betts for Harvey (who is arbitration eligible this season and will probably command a $25M AAV contract for six years when he becomes a free agent).

Harvey is under team control for two more seasons. He's likely to make around $4.2M this season through arbitration. Again, if the Sox are in "win now" mode, I don't see how Harvey's projected FA salary is an issue, especially when Bogaerts has the same agent and only one more year of team control before they will be in pretty much the exact same position with him.

And again, it's moot now though, because the Sox don't have enough left to deal for Harvey.

The whole argument that the Red Sox gave away too many prospects for Kimbrel is laughable. Margot was the only prospect of any note that was going in the deal, but most scouts agree that his ceiling is pretty limited as a major league player. Even after "depleting" their farm system in the Kimbrel trade, Boston still has one of the top 3 minor league rosters in baseball with Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Travis and Marrero.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66416/where-will-david-price-end-up-signing

New Red Sox POBO (that's president of baseball operations) Dave Dombrowski made his intentions clear when he traded four prospects, including highly regarded outfielder Manuel Margot, to acquire closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres: The mandate is to win now, no matter the cost, as everyone thought the Red Sox paid a steep price in talent for Kimbrel. Dombrowski then said he'd sign an ace pitcher rather than further gut the Red Sox system. That has all arrows pointing to Price coming to Boston.

 

[Dooley]

Look, the guy is 30 years old. Paying for players' decline years is exaclty how the Yankees got into the position they're in now. Paying David Price at age 30 for 7 years and $180 Million is absolutely ludicrous.

Would I like to see Price in pinstripes next year ? Definitely. Would I still want to see him in 2020 clogging the roster the way Sabathia is now ? Hell no.

Besides, Price is more likely to get in the $190 to $195 M range, not $180M. If you want to spend that much, Jason Heyward at age 25 is an infinitely better option for them to break their recent stance against big name free agents. While many of their starters have lingering question marks, they have more starters than starting slots. Price would certainly be better than all of them, but they don't necessarily NEED pitching as much as offense anyhow. Evoldi, Pineda, Tanaka, and Severino is a pretty formidable 1-4 with Nova, Warren, and Sabathia looking to fill the last slot.

All of this makes sense except for one thing - if the Yanks threw in an attractive opt-out clause or front load the deal, they can protect themselves from the back end. You offer a 7 year deal and front load it. After year 3 or 4, you offer an opt out. Because the money was front loaded, Price might opt out to try to secure more money in the back end of his career. The Yanks could have walked away from CC when he opted out and should have. Ditto for ARod. Here's an example of something the Yanks (or anyone) should offer:

Total deal - 7 years/$190M
Years 1-3 - $100M (annual average over $30M/yr)
Years 4-7 - $90M (annual average around $22.5M/yr)

The back-end isn't terrible so if Price stays in, you still get value in years 4 and maybe 5. Year 6 and 7 have the potential of being bad. You're paying top dollar for prime years and less for aged years.

In no world am I giving Jason Heyward a $300M deal, or anywhere near that, like the one he is rumored to be seeking just because he's "young". I would sign Cespedes or Upton for half of that, thank you very much. Heyward is a premier defender but he's a 6 hole hitter, at best, and prone to nagging injuries. For me, he's a complete PASS.

 

[Rico444]

Pink hat? That's probably the worst insult you could give a diehard red sox fan...

As for delusional, I was never suggesting that any GM would ever make those moves, but that is the only instance where Boston would part with Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts. Both guys are in their early twenties, aren't arbitration eligible for a couple of years (low AAV's) and were all-star caliber players according to WAR last season (Bogaerts 4.3 WAR & Betts 4.8 WAR) where a 4-5 win above replacement player is considered an all-star level. People can talk up the Mets starting pitchers all they want, but at the end of the day, position players have way more value than any sort of starting pitcher. Good pitchers can be found anywhere, but a starter who pitches every five days with the risk of injury that ends with TJS is not worth an all-star caliber position player who will give you 140-150 games worth of production.

I agree that position players are more valuable than pitchers of otherwise equal value, but I think you're overstating how much. Good pitchers can be found anywhere? Is that why David Price is going to get $200+ million?

If we could get Betts for Harvey, I'd be happy, but because of the years of control left for both player, Noah Syndergaard for Betts is probably more likely to be a fair deal.

 

[Dooley]

Jose Fernandez on the market??? IF he is, the Sox should go all in for him.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...arlins-may-be-looking-to-trade-jose-fernandez

 

[Deadrody]

...... elite caliber position players>>>elite caliber pitchers......

Not even remotely true

 

[Deadrody]

All of this makes sense except for one thing - if the Yanks threw in an attractive opt-out clause or front load the deal, they can protect themselves from the back end. You offer a 7 year deal and front load it. After year 3 or 4, you offer an opt out.

So in this universe, when a player enters his decline years and his skills no longer match the salary, you expect them to opt out of their lucrative contract and expect someone to pay them MORE money for LESS productions ?

 

[Dooley]

So in this universe, when a player enters his decline years and his skills no longer match the salary, you expect them to opt out of their lucrative contract and expect someone to pay them MORE money for LESS productions ?

In this universe, CC did it and secured more money. Cliff Lee got 5 years/$120M amidst rumors that New York and Texas outbid the Phillies offer at age 32, going into 33 season. Those are the two best lefty "comps" from recent history. James Shields eventually got his 4 years/$75M at age 33 season. Jon Lester's contract is front loaded.

If Price pitches well in years 1-3 and stays healthy, why wouldn't he? The Yanks would feel pressured into re-signing him and there might be a be bidding war from rival teams just to get him away from New York. He's not going to get much more than the $20M/yr for years 4-6/7...but he could get more $20M years for additional year(s). If he thought that he could sign a Cliff Lee contract at age 33, why wouldn't he want to do that??

 

[Deadrody]

In this universe, CC did it and secured more money. Cliff Lee got 5 years/$120M amidst rumors that New York and Texas outbid the Phillies offer at age 32, going into 33 season. Those are the two best lefty "comps" from recent history. James Shields eventually got his 4 years/$75M at age 33 season. Jon Lester's contract is front loaded.

If Price pitches well in years 1-3 and stays healthy, why wouldn't he? The Yanks would feel pressured into re-signing him and there might be a be bidding war from rival teams just to get him away from New York. He's not going to get much more than the $20M/yr for years 4-6/7...but he could get more $20M years for additional year(s). If he thought that he could sign a Cliff Lee contract at age 33, why wouldn't he want to do that??

It's really this simple - if he is declining, he isn't going to opt out. End of story. If he isn't declining, he will. And the team that signs him is almost sure to RE-sign him.

 

[Dooley]

It's really this simple - if he is declining, he isn't going to opt out. End of story. If he isn't declining, he will. And the team that signs him is almost sure to RE-sign him.

Well, after seeing the deal that Price signed, there is NO way he is opting out. Declining skills or not. The money the Sox are paying isn't front-loaded. The opt out is after year 3 (2018) and years 1-3 pay him $30M/yr each. That leaves 4 years $127M still on the table. There is no team in baseball, other than the Red Sox (i.e. Dave Dombroski) who will give a pitcher entering his age 34 season 4 years @ $127M. The best he could do is James Shields money - 4 years $75M.

Even if there isn't a no-trade clause, this deal pretty much ties Price to Boston for the full 7 years of the pact. The money is absolutely immovable. The Sox would need to package up younger assets AND eat a ton of money to move him when he gets older and even more expensive.

This contract is a perfect example of Dave Dombroski being Dave Dombroski. He will wipe out Boston's farm system and financial flexibility in less than a year.

 

[Dove]

Zack Greinke to DBacks for just 34+ million/season. 6 years of that, too

 

[Dooley]

Horrendous contract for Greinke. This makes Price look like a steal. Arizona is essentially paying Greinke $200M for 2 good seasons and a bunch of decline. No way he posts the same ERA/WHIP pitching in The Pool as he did at Dodger Stadium.