Hockey East Standingsology: Using the KRACH to project the final HEA standings...

[ct06111]

After Saturday games:

Still in 6th

HockeyEastOnline.com - Men's Standings

 

[FDNY99]

The numbers are the amount of points needed to clinch a place in the standings.

 

[FDNY99]

 

[FDNY99]

This was from yesterday:

 

[FDNY99]

 

[FDNY99]

Right now hypothetically if Uconn beats UMass and BU & Maine get swept...Uconn will end up in 4th place due to tie breaker win over BU and host BU in the 4 vs 5 matchup of the 2nd rnd. Dream scenario at it's best!!! Most likely scenario has UConn playing Merrimack at the XL (or UNH if Merrimack can win 1 out of their last 2) in the 6 vs 12 spot. The winner of that series will end up most likely playing at BC in the next round.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Right now hypothetically if Uconn beats UMass and BU & Maine get swept...Uconn will end up in 4th place due to tie breaker win over BU and host BU in the 4 vs 5 matchup of the 2nd rnd. Dream scenario at it's best!!! Most likely scenario has UConn playing Merrimack at the XL (or UNH if Merrimack can win 1 out of their last 2) in the 6 vs 12 spot. The winner of that series will end up most likely playing at BC in the next round.

The 6-12 winner, if it were the 6, would not play BC assuming they stay at 1. The 6 seed would automatically play the 3 seed.

 

[FDNY99]

The 6-12 winner, if it were the 6, would not play BC assuming they stay at 1. The 6 seed would automatically play the 3 seed.

So they re-seed the teams after the first round? Now I’m confused.....

 

[Brochacho]

So they re-seed the teams after the first round? Now I’m confused.....

No, assuming chalk, each second round matchup totals to 9. So any upsets follow same pattern, no reseeding like NFL.
1v8
2v7
3v6
4v5

 

[FDNY99]

No, assuming chalk, each second round matchup totals to 9.
1v8
2v7
3v6
4v5

Thanks...Of the top 3 teams right now I’d rather play BC than NU or PC. But that’s ok....I can see BU making a bit of a run getting Greenway back from the Olympics....

 

[mac2351]

If UConn beats UMass, Maine has to sweep BC to get the 5 seed or UConn gets it.

It is very likely if UConn wins on Thursday, UConn will play BU in Boston on the second weekend.

Hockey East does re-seed.

 

[ct06111]

It breaks it down in this link:
HockeyEastOnline.com - Hockey East Tournament

 

[FDNY99]

This is a pretty good and extensive run down from Ticaonews posted in the Hockey East thread on USCHO:

1-3 Boston College 32 (16 wins) ME, ME
1-3 Providence 30 (13 wins), @UMA
1-3 Northeastern 29 (13 wins) UNH, @UNH
4-6 Boston University 25 (11 wins) vs UVM, vs UVM
4-7 Connecticut 23 (11 wins) @UMA
4-7 Maine 23 (10 wins) @BC, @BC
5-8 Lowell 20 (10 wins) @MC, MC
7-11 Vermont 17 (6 wins) @BU, @BU
8-11 Massachusetts 16 (7 wins) UC, PC
8-11 New Hampshire 15 (5 wins) @NU, NU
8-11 Merrimack 14 (6 wins) ML, @ML

Boston College is in first right now and needs only a point to secure the regular season championship and #1 seed.

The best Providence can do is tie the Eagles. However, the Friars do hold the tiebreaker with BC (2-1 H2H) so they would take the #1 seed.

Northeastern can still finish with 33 points and pass both the Eagles and Friars. In the event that they tie with BC, the Eagles win the tiebreaker (wins). If PC, BC and NU all tie at 32, Providence is #1, BC #2 and NU #3.

The Eagles could still finish third if NU gets to 33 points and PC ties them at 32.

Boston University has the inside track on the four seed and final bye/home ice slot. A single point eliminates UConn from consideration. The Terriers need to finish one point ahead of Maine to secure home ice. In the event the Terriers and Huskies tie at 25 the Huskies win the tiebreaker (12-11). If Maine has 26+ points, then the Huskies take fifth and BU falls to sixth. In the event of a three-way tie at 25, UConn takes fourth, Maine fifth and BU sixth. Maine's ceiling is 27, so if BU gets to 28 they eliminate the Black Bears.

UConn can pass BU as described above. If they win their finale on Thursday night, Maine would need to get to 26 points to pass them as the Huskies would hold the tiebreaker (12-11). The Huskies can also be passed by Lowell if the River Hawks get to 24 points while UConn is stuck on 23 or 24. A tie at 23 points would come down to their H2H with either Providence or Northeastern, both of which are won by UConn. UConn would also win a three-way tie at 23.

Maine is in the odd position that they win the tb with BU but would lose to UConn. BU has a two point lead so Maine will need to go BU+2 next weekend at Boston College to secure fourth. However, as described above, Maine loses a three-way tie at 25 to UConn. Maine can also be caught by Lowell and drop to seventh. If Lowell wins both games next weekend, they need Maine to lose both as Lowell would lose a tie at 24. However, if the tie is at 23 then Lowell would win the tie and finish sixth.

Lowell can also be caught for seventh by Vermont. In the event Lowell loses both games and Vermont wins both, Vermont would finish seventh and Lowell eighth. Any tie would be won by Lowell (2-1 H2H).

The final four spots are a mess. Even at this late date, any of the four remaining teams can finish eighth and get home ice. Or any of the teams could finish last.

It is now almost 2AM so I'll calculate those possibilities Sunday

 

[The Viking]

After the hellacious loss to Merrimack followed by the Huska injury, if you told me UConn would still be alive for the fourth or fifth seeds going into the final week I never would have believed.
It’s certainly possible we get the 5 seed.
I’m torn on first round bye vs hosting a first round series but it does make it more likely to play at the TD Garden on st. Patty’s weekend so I guess I’ll pull for the bye and root like Thursday is the final home game of the season

 

[The Viking]

Is BU at Agganis? And they serve cold ones?
I’ve been to agganis really nice rink

 

[Jimdish255]

BC will want that Friday game. Assuming they win is Sat still a must win for them? I'd be looking to rotate a lot of guys getting minutes on Saturday regardless. Play to win but get everybody some time. Can't see BU losing 2 to UVM unless they totally fall apart so we're probably playing for 5th which is OK. Just get the W Thursday, kick back and get a jump on preparation while they fight it out.

 

[RSTuthill]

If UConn knows what's good for them, and I surely think they do, just leave it all out on the ice and get the damned W. Worry about the rest over a beer on the weekend. Sheesh, we are gonna drive ourselves crazy. Good problem to have, though.

How would you like to be Maine, though, having to end the season with three against BC?

 

[FDNY99]

@Jimdish255 all BC needs is 1 PT to wrap up 1st place..a win or tie on Friday night against Maine and they clinch.

 

[ct06111]

Is BU at Agganis? And they serve cold ones?
I’ve been to agganis really nice rink

Yes, they do. Nice place, been there a few times. Have 16oz of rebel IPA.
Strongest stuff they got or the regular piss

 

[cheech63]

If UConn knows what's good for them, and I surely think they do, just leave it all out on the ice and get the damned W. Worry about the rest over a beer on the weekend. Sheesh, we are gonna drive ourselves crazy. Good problem to have, though.

How would you like to be Maine, though, having to end the season with three against BC?

Why did Hockey East have Maine play BC in the final 3 games of the season. That's tough.

 

[ct06111]

HockeyEastOnline.com - National Polls

Hey, UConn received 1 vote in the USCHO poll!

I believe this is the 2nd time in cav era UConn has been on the ORV.

 

[huskymedic]

This week’s: Hockey East Standingsology: Using KRACH to project the final standings (2/12)

Current first-round playoff matchups are projected as:

6. UMass Lowell vs. 11. Merrimack
7. Connecticut vs. 10. Massachusetts
8. Vermont vs. 9. New Hampshire

 

[FDNY99]

This week’s: Hockey East Standingsology: Using KRACH to project the final standings (2/12)

View attachment 28746

Current first-round playoff matchups are projected as:

6. UMass Lowell vs. 11. Merrimack
7. Connecticut vs. 10. Massachusetts
8. Vermont vs. 9. New Hampshire

Those predictions make ZERO sense @huskymedic. If UConn doesn’t beat UMass they still Lock up 6th place and will play Merrimack or UNH.

 

[huskymedic]

Those predictions make ZERO sense @huskymedic. If UConn doesn’t beat UMass they still Lock up 6th place and will play Merrimack or UNH.

Feel free to argue w/ McMahon. He’s using the Krach standings (mathematical probabilities of winning %) to make the determinations...

 

[TheDoggPound]

It's dated Feb. 12..