Highest rated incoming recruits classes

[Hurleyman216]

There are very few coaches in my mind that have the ability to build teams that truly have great chemistry. I think Hurley is one of them and you could throw out a couple others like Kelvin Sampson and Greg McDermott. These guys consistently build TEAMS that aren't just stacked with NBA guys, they're just building solid teams on good fundamentals with guys buying into the team concept. It's the exact opposite approach of the 5 star one and done and it's been proven to be more successful come March than the one and done model. Let these guys have their 5 star crybaby headcases. We'll take the under the radar guys who eat sleep and breathe basketball. I'll take an Alex Karaban every day of the week over some 5 star hot shot who wants to come in and show why he's a top 10 NBA pick. Our staff has the formula figured out. Eventually other programs may figure it out, but it would involve not recruiting more than 1-2 5 star players in any current class and I think the egos that come with recruiting at Duke and UK are too big overcome being more strategic.

 

[Samoo]

It would be an interesting exercise to track the performance of schools with the top 25 or 50 recruiting classes each year. I'm not a statistics expert and have no idea how you might set it up or figure out a rolling class average and compare it to performance in terms of win-loss records, year-end rankings, success in conference tournaments and most importantly success in the NCAA tournament. Do you start with performance and work back to recruiting class ranking or start with the ranking and work forward to see if there was commensurate performance? Maybe average recruiting ranking over the last 10-20 years compared with a number based on a formula that includes the factors above?

Can any of you nerds figure that out? Has it already been done? I looked around and couldn't find anything.

I did however find a study that looks at the different determinants for recruiting success. It is pre-NIL so probably not entirely applicable to the present situation. Here is the abstract - nothing earth shattering:

Using recruiting rankings from Rivals.com, the authors examine the determinants of recruiting success among D1 NCAA men’s basketball programs. After controlling for a host of potentially relevant variables, the authors find that recruiting outcomes are correlated with recent on-court success, historical on-court success, stadium size and playing in a ‘power’ conference. Additionally, teams with a history of sending players to the NBA receive heightened recruiting outcomes. A team with a new coach can expect difficulties with recruiting, while head coaches with national championships receive a recruiting boost. Finally, the authors show that recruiting strategies for guards may differ from recruiting strategies for other players.