It would be an interesting exercise to track the performance of schools with the top 25 or 50 recruiting classes each year. I'm not a statistics expert and have no idea how you might set it up or figure out a rolling class average and compare it to performance in terms of win-loss records, year-end rankings, success in conference tournaments and most importantly success in the NCAA tournament. Do you start with performance and work back to recruiting class ranking or start with the ranking and work forward to see if there was commensurate performance? Maybe average recruiting ranking over the last 10-20 years compared with a number based on a formula that includes the factors above?
Can any of you nerds figure that out? Has it already been done? I looked around and couldn't find anything.
I did however find a study that looks at the different determinants for recruiting success. It is pre-NIL so probably not entirely applicable to the present situation. Here is the abstract - nothing earth shattering:
Using recruiting rankings from Rivals.com, the authors examine the determinants of recruiting success among D1 NCAA men’s basketball programs. After controlling for a host of potentially relevant variables, the authors find that recruiting outcomes are correlated with recent on-court success, historical on-court success, stadium size and playing in a ‘power’ conference. Additionally, teams with a history of sending players to the NBA receive heightened recruiting outcomes. A team with a new coach can expect difficulties with recruiting, while head coaches with national championships receive a recruiting boost. Finally, the authors show that recruiting strategies for guards may differ from recruiting strategies for other players.