pj what is the time frame (best, most likely, worst case) for AAU??
Really hard to say because there are so many possible metrics and depending on how you weight them you can either see UConn as a marginal qualifier already or a few years away or quite far away. I think it will be a very political decision.
First UConn has to make sure the UConn Medical Center in Farmington is grouped with Storrs, otherwise we are far off in federal research funds. With it we're probably in the bottom 20% of AAU research recipients on most of the measures but weak on some others.
The current hiring programs will help with research volume. It won't make UConn a slam dunk for AAU but it will make us comparable to a number of AAU institutions.
Here's a comparison with four AAU universities and some non-AAU universities. From
http://mup.asu.edu/research2011.pdf, in 2009 the numbers were:
School ................. Total research funds .................... Federal research funds ...................... metrics in top 50 universities ... metrics in top 50 public universities
Rutgers ................... $320 mn .......................................... $161 mn .............................................. 3............................................................. 8
Brandeis ................... $62 mn .......................................... $40 mn .............................................. 1
Stony Book ............... $258 mn .......................................... $107 mn ............................................. 0 ........................................................... 4
U of Kansas (Lawrence only) ... $132 mn ........................... $73 mn ............................................... 1 ............................................................ 4
U of Kansas (with Med Ctr KC) ... $225 mn ........................ $127 mn
UConn (Storrs only) .... $130 mn ...................................... $51 mn ................................................ 1 ............................................................ 3
UConn (with Med Ctr) ... $225 mn .................................... $120 mn
Compare a few non-AAU schools:
Tufts ............................... $148 mn .................................. $102 mn ................................................ 1
Florida State ................... $195 mn .................................. $117 mn ................................................. 1 ............................................................ 6
Oklahoma ........................ $78 mn ..................................... $42 mn ................................................. 1 ........................................................... 4
Brandeis is well below UConn on research dollars but the per-faculty funding is higher (a quality measure). Rutgers is about 50% bigger in total dollars and ahead in average faculty quality. Stony Brook is comparable to UConn in total dollars but higher in average quality.
Kansas and UConn are very comparable institutions, even down to the Medical Center and campus research sizes. But Kansas joined the AAU in 1909 and maybe they would have a harder time getting in today.
Tufts is similar in profile to UConn, but not in the AAU. Florida State is ahead of UConn Storrs and behind UConn Storrs + Med Ctr in total research dollars; but they have almost double the number of faculty, so average faculty quality is way behind UConn. Oklahoma is way behind UConn even though they have considerably more faculty.
Overall I would say as long as Mark Emmert is not on the AAU committee, if the Medical Center is grouped with UConn Storrs, and if the current hiring can increase UConn's research funds by 20%, then we'll be in. That would take about 5 years I'm guessing. If we have a lot of friends in the AAU we might be able to get in in 1-2 years. If we have enemies we might never get in as I'm sure if you emphasize average faculty quality as with Brandeis there are a number of institutions currently outside the AAU you might invite ahead of UConn.