Halfway Point of the Regular Season

[Surly1]

It's hard to get an accurate read on how good UConn is compared to other top tier programs at this juncture. Teams are in conference mode, and the Big East is not up to par with the Power Four conferences from a competitive standpoint. Paige could miss the remainder of the Big East schedule, and UConn would be the prohibitive favorite. Other than the SC & UT games, UConn will not be tested and that includes Creighton, who do not match up well against UConn.

Are they a Final Four team? Yes. With Geno at the helm, UConn has been to 15 out of the last 16 Final Fours. The only exception was the year Paige did not play. In her 3 seasons, she has propelled UConn to the Final Four. If I were a betting man, and with a track record as noted, I will bank on UConn reaching this level until proven otherwise.

Is UConn one of the top four teams? As of now, no. I believe it's fair to state that UConn is appropriately ranked at 7th in the nation. Some of the luster of earlier wins against NC, Louisville, Ole Miss & Iowa State have lost a little sheen as losses have piled up on their scorecards. Until the tourney begins, UConn's last opportunity for a statement win comes in road games against SC & UT.

As we know, UConn historically improves approaching the postseason. That might apply to all teams, but UConn has a few items trending in its favor. In UConn's loss to ND, Azzi did not play and in the USC game, she was a non entity. As long as she remains healthy, her stroke will improve, taking pressure off of Sarah Strong (not that she appears fazed) and opening the floor for Paige to operate more freely. A healthy Azzi is a game changer.

Hopefully, Aubrey will make her season debut shortly. Aubrey's length, athleticism and defensive prowess is never more valuable in the postseason. For example, if UConn were to match up against USC again, Aubrey would be perfectly suited to guard JuJu, saving Paige to spend her energy on offense. The addition of Aubrey, combined with KK, and the ball swiping ability of SS permits UConn to implement their version of Ohio State & Tennessee full court pressure, turning defense into offense. A healthy Aubrey is a difference maker.

I applaud Geno for inserting Jana into the starting lineup. Most of the teams that UConn would likely have to beat for a 12th NC have imposing bigs. While UConn can play with 4 guards & Sarah Strong in the Big East and win comfortably, size still matters. Ideally, Jana builds her confidence and comfort level during Big East play, and relies more on her natural instincts rather than over thinking. The same applies to Morgan and Allie. A confident Jana is a space maker.

I commend Geno for expanding his rotation, at least during conference play. I feel he's come around that today's freshmen (Sarah aside) around the country are ready to play and make an impact. All they need is reps and playing time. Look at Michigan. They start 3 prized freshmen and have lost 5 games; SC, UCLA, USC, Ohio St and Oklahoma. Although I feel they are a year away, they won't be intimidated by any team they play in the tournament.

So how does UConn match up? We'll see how they fare against SC in February. Losing Ashlyn Watkins for the season is a blow, but Dawn has a pair of 6'5 centers in reserve. Also, any team that can bring a MiLaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson off the bench is loaded. As of now, UCLA is the team to beat, with Kiki Rice at the helm and Lauren Betts dominating. ND's guard duo grabs the headlines, but ND is a deceptively good defensive team. However, if UConn meets up with them again, I don't expect Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles will hit as many 3's. I feel USC is a more complete team this year and JuJu is capable of going off anytime, but I like UConn's chances if they meet up again. Texas is deep, have size, a star in Madison Booker, and a pair of dynamic freshmen. I would love to see Sarah Strong paired against Madison Booker

The last point is reserved for Paige. This is her last opportunity to win a NC and stamp herself a certified UConn legend. Here's to her channeling her inner Diana Taurasi and accepting the challenge of taking over games when needed in the tourney to win, not worrying about anything else.

Unlike last year, UConn will have more assets to play situationally and the luxury to fine tune rotations and lineups before the Big Dance begins. Although they're not quite there, I see the destination on the horizon.

 

[ERWUC65]

Any projections going forward, will, of course, be dependent on everyone's rosters staying healthy, something certainly not a given considering the pace of play and competitiveness of the ladies game this year. Assuming the best for UConn, e.g., having Paige, Sarah and Azzi at full go and Aubrey at mostly full go should put us able to hang with the top 5 (UCLA,USC,SC,ND). Getting there, though, is going to be challenging if 5-10 (Oklahoma, MD, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, or 10-15 (Georgia Tech, Kansas State, TCU, Kentucky, Duke) end up being in our draw. We have a bit of a luxury in the next few weeks with Big East games while the aforementioned teams beat up on each other. I see the Tennessee game as a real bellweather, they are better than I thought, having lost barely to Oklahoma and USC, albeit at home.

 

[MTSuitsky]

That's a thoughtful summary, o Surly one. Thank you for sharing.

My question concerns Kaitlyn Chen. She is not the impact player at either end of the floor that I expected her to be. I'm not saying she is a liability. I just don't know what to make of her. KK is improving nicely and fans understandably want to see her get more minutes. Chen isn't providing all that much resistance. I'm curious what other people think. Am I guilty of having overhyped Chen's talents?

Here's hoping Cheli continues to earn quality time, Ziebell builds on her Xavier performance, and El-Alfy makes positive strides. UConn is going to need that depth and more (Aubrey Griffin) in two months.

 

[Bone Dog]

I feel he's come around that today's freshmen (Sarah aside) around the country are ready to play and make an impact. All they need is reps and playing time.

I generally agree with your assessment. But this one remark leaves me wondering. Yes, some freshmen are ready to play at a D1 level. But this may not be the same as being ready to play for UConn. When I watched a few Michigan games what I notice is that they run quite simplistic offensive and defensive schemes. Swords and Olson are having excellent seasons, but Michigan isn’t fully competitive as a team because of the way the team is organized. USC looks to be another case of this — great talent but not sophisticated offensive and defensive schemes. USC has great athletes, freshmen among them, and they were able to expose a flaw in our lineup, a temporary flaw, that had disappeared by the second half. We probably won’t play them again this season, but if we were to, I doubt the result would be the same. This was their problem last season, too. We beat them handily then while running 3 freshmen — the final score looked close because of FT shooting woes.

Geno has always known how to play freshmen when they’re ready, and not just because injuries forced him to. And a few have been ready to get substantial minutes right away, like Paige, Sarah, Christyn, Maya, but also Nykesha, Carla, Shea, Svet, Tamika, Asjha, Swin, Diana, Ann and Wilnett, Charde, Renee, and of course Tina. This list is incomplete, I expect, but it shows that Geno hasn’t really ever been opposed to playing freshmen. He is cautious about placing excessive demands on kids who aren’t ready for them, especially since his read-and-react schemes are very demanding and take a while to learn.

 

[MSGRET]

I generally agree with your assessment. But this one remark leaves me wondering. Yes, some freshmen are ready to play at a D1 level. But this may not be the same as being ready to play for UConn. When I watched a few Michigan games what I notice is that they run quite simplistic offensive and defensive schemes. Swords and Olson are having excellent seasons, but Michigan isn’t fully competitive as a team because of the way the team is organized. USC looks to be another case of this — great talent but not sophisticated offensive and defensive schemes. USC has great athletes, freshmen among them, and they were able to expose a flaw in our lineup, a temporary flaw, that had disappeared by the second half. We probably won’t play them again this season, but if we were to, I doubt the result would be the same. This was their problem last season, too. We beat them handily then while running 3 freshmen — the final score looked close because of FT shooting woes.

Geno has always known how to play freshmen when they’re ready, and not just because injuries forced him to. And a few have been ready to get substantial minutes right away, like Paige, Sarah, Christyn, Maya, but also Nykesha, Carla, Shea, Svet, Tamika, Asjha, Swin, Diana, Ann and Wilnett, Charde, Renee, and of course Tina. This list is incomplete, I expect, but it shows that Geno hasn’t really ever been opposed to playing freshmen. He is cautious about placing excessive demands on kids who aren’t ready for them, especially since his read-and-react schemes are very demanding and take a while to learn.

I believe that both KLS and Phesa should be added to your list of Super Freshman.

 

[Monte]

It will be interesting from now on. UCONN is not dominating WBB as they did for so many years.
There are now several teams which could reach and win the NCAA championship. However, we cannot count UCONN out. Let's stay healthy, and see what Geno accomplishes with this team.

 

[sun]

For me, the South Carolina game will be a major indicator. If UConn loses it won't be the end of the world but they need to keep the final score close. It shouldn't really matter whether Chen or KK starts when neither would be expected to play the full 40 minutes anyway & Chen still knows perfectly well how to score points.
If UConn also loses the Tennessee game then that would be a really bad omen for their seeding in March.

 

[Skeets]

I like Aubrey. Energetic and athletic. But I said this before, some fan(natics) expectations are getting out of control. "UConn will be great when Aubey comes back, Aubrey will be the difference maker", etc. I believe UConn will go wherever they go with or without Aubrey. If anyone is a little disappointed down the road maybe it's because their expectations were out of whack.

If a couple of months from now Aubrey makes this post sound foolish, that would be more than OK with me.

 

[Bone Dog]

I like Aubrey. Energetic and athletic. But I said this before, some fan(natics) expectations are getting out of control. "UConn will be great when Aubey comes back, Aubrey will be the difference maker", etc. I believe UConn will go wherever they go with or without Aubrey. If anyone is a little disappointed down the road maybe it's because their expectations were out of whack.

If a couple of months from now Aubrey makes this post sound foolish, that would be more than OK with me.

For Aubrey to make a substantial difference she’d have to come back as she was before the injury. There’s no guarantee of this. When people express their hopes for a possible NC run in terms of Aubrey’s return, they’re expressing a lack of confidence in our current frontcourt. This is not surprising given last season’s experience when our frontcourt in March consisted of Aaliyah, Ice and Paige. It’s also a holdover from the optimism of the summer.

I’d add to this concern the loss of Ayanna. We have no idea what she’d have been able to bring to the team other than strength and quickness. But this might have made a significant difference in a rather thin frontcourt. Losing her is a blow to the team’s hopes. And I’m sure some of us, including me, held out some hope Caroline might also return and bring added depth. Finally the setback Azzi suffered in the Louisville game and what Paige suffered in the Providence game gave many of us a shock.

Over the summer, many of us pictured the healthiest version of the team and forecast the sunniest prospects. It wasn’t unreasonable at the time to think we’d be an obvious NC contender if all the assumptions were born out. Now, the fact is some of these assumptions will not be borne out.

But at least one assumption has turned out better than any of us hoped, namely Sarah’s readiness to be a headliner. She’s exceeded any reasonable expectation. There’s also still time for other things to break our way. Jana is developing as well as we ought to have expected and could be an effective center by March. And Morgan and Allie still have time to become important contributors. And KK and Ash are performing more or less as many hoped they would.

UConn is still an NC contender, but not as obviously so as we seemed in September. The favorites ahead of us are still UCLA, SC and ND. We might upset any of them, and they may falter in other ways, but their paths to an NC looks to be wider than ours. USC, LSU, MD, Texas have hopes that seem to be on a par with ours. We could beat any of them merely by staying healthy and playing our game, and the same could be said of them. And there’s probably a dozen other teams who could upset us in March if only a few things break their way, teams like Michigan or Tennessee or tOSU. This is what not being one of the favorites looks like.

The upshot of all this is I still think we have a shot at an NC. But how good a shot depends on a few factors outside of our control.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

When Aubrey was injured last year on January 3, 2024, UConn had 17 games left to the regular season.

• Geno challenged seniors Nika, Aaliyah and Paige and they responded;
• UConn still lost 2 more games — to ND (7th game hence) (Nika fouls out) and to SC (11th game hence) — in the next 17 games;
• But they became postseason ready — in as much as an effective 6-man rotation could that had to play within certain parameters to conserve energy and avoid foul trouble — reaching the final four and was two points and a questionable call away from the finals.

Geno has had a 15-game training bandwidth this season, and this UConn team is on a remarkable virtuous cycle to the postseason:

• like last year’s 6-man rotation in 17 regular season games, this year’s team lost 2 games in 15 games;
• but Geno has a remarkable unparalleled record — all of it in the Big East/ AAC — and still has 16 more regular season games with Azzi rounding to form, Aubrey waiting in the wings and the young roster developing remarkably.

Some fans think that developing players is like turning carbon into diamond — best with a steady diet of tough January-March conference games:

• this past summer’s U18 FIBA Americup with Sarah Strong is a further cautionary tale;
• there was some fan angst on whether Geno recruited the best incoming freshman in Sarah Strong based on her relative performance in this past summer’s U18 FIBA Americup where the U.S. coach’s chosen game play was that of a glorified HS game that got exposed in the finals;
• Geno’s system has allowed the best in Sarah Strong to develop and shine.

Imo, this UConn team has the potential to really eventually mirror the team that it looks very similar to on paper — the second year of TASSK that won the national championship over the (athletic and rebounding) TN Superteam.

The 1-loss 2nd year TASSK team:

• had a deep, talented roster;
• had balanced minutes and scoring;
• was a pick-your-poison team;
• had an engine of Shea-Svet-Tamika;
• had a Noah’s Ark (at least two-of-everything for positions (1)-(5)) roster &1;
• played relentlessly for 40 minutes;
• had an effective two point guard rotation of Sue and KJ.

Re: Kaitlyn:

Sue, who had an injury year to really study and catalogue her team’s proclivities, was tasked by Geno by saying that everything bad that happens to the team is her fault;

• Geno is not making any substantial complaints about Kaitlyn as the starting point guard because the team is mostly meeting or exceeding Geno’s expectations at this point for most aspects;
• Kaitlyn is doing everything Geno requires of his point guards — including taking open shots as the designated 5th option on offense which have looked great but have not gone in — same thing that can be said thus far of every player not named Paige or Sarah;
• As the 5th option, Kaitlyn’s responsibility is to get the Big 3 (Paige, Azzi and Sarah) going, so the press can get going, etc. and to spend energy guarding the opponent’s lead point guard;
• KK’s most advanced particular type of defense and offense, imo, would not be as effective as the 5th option among the starters; her energy will not be put to the best use as it is now;
• KK would really be extra lethal with Aubrey and energizer bunny Ash, as game changers from the bench;
• Next year, Geno has Kellis to take on KK’s current responsibilities as game-changer from the bench; KK’s point guard honed capabilities and maturity wherewithal will be what Geno requires by then.

&1 Geno has the luxury for strategic substitutions. If a player, say Azzi, is initially not playing well, he can sub in Ash to get Azzi a breather to eventually get going. With a stable of remarkably developing players, he has several designated hitters that can come in with unique contributions from the bench at a particular time — and it doesn’t need to involve substantial scoring (e.g. Morgan).

• And each designated hitter is capable of being the star/ badass performer on any given game.

 

[Zonepress]

in Your comments re k Chen Don’t think the coach or even a casual obsever Believes the team is “mostly meeting or exceeding expectations”

 

[packwrap]

in Your comments re k Chen Don’t think the coach or even a casual obsever Believes the team is “mostly meeting or exceeding expectations”

I think on the whole the team is close to meeting expectations.

The pundits had us ranked #2 pre season behind SC, shocking but that means we make the championship game.

Why #2? Paige and Azzi show, nice group of returnees, El Alfy and Brady promising up front, Strong and other good recruits and transfers. Health!

Now the pundits have us ranked #6/#7, falling in the round of 8.

Why?? Paige and Azzi show a bit slow to develop (and Hidalgo/Miles shiny new toys), El Alfy/Brady combo not at expected level. 2 losses....
...but, Sarah much better than expectations, all in all returnees playing well, Cheli also a nice surprise.

The only difference between pre season and current asessment, is we have to win one game against a good team in the round of 8. Personally, I believe we have the team to do that, and by March will be favored in that game.

Chen - a bit of an enigma. She chooses not to shoot. Today 4 shots vs 15-20 at Princeton. Yet she can still get her shot anytime she wants.

Aubrey - she is not going to rescue the team, but if she comes back close to her normal self, she fills the hole we have now for a lock down defender 1-5. (Our best defenders now are Paige and KK). In the pre season scenario, I had hoped Aubrey could stick at the 3 this year, as we had a good frontcourt. Now more likely she is back at the 4.

Can't wait for Tenn and SC!

 

[Bone Dog]

Our best defenders now are Paige and KK

I’d add Azzi and Ash and Sarah to this list of best defenders.

 

[CTBballfan243]

In my opinion, UConn is what their record says they are. Their ranking of the 7th rank team in the country is where they belong talent wise. They have beaten the teams that they should beat and lost to teams that are better than UConn. I would say they have performed as I expected they would perform this season.

 

[oldhusky]

I am considerably more optimistic now than after our second loss for several reasons. At that time our top two were as good as anybody's, but at least by Uconn standards, 3-7 was more like what 6-10 would be on a typical Uconn contender. Other top teams had significantly better 3rd, 4th and 5th best players etc.

Now a healthy Azzi looks like a legitimate third big time star. Aubrey after a few games should be another high level addition. Jana looks more settled after beating out Ice (which needed to happen) and Ashlynn and KK have shown a significant sophomore improvement after starting the season little different from the prior one. So the next tier after Paige and Sarah looks considerably better now.

Much is still to be determined IMO regarding possible lineups. Kaitlin is slipping as KK is rising, so that starting spot could potentially change, and Aubrey in time is a possible starter or major minute player at the 4 or the 3. Instead of one big and four guards, we could tilt big or small depending on Aubrey, but not as drastic as actually using four guards.

Using Aubrey at the 4 with Sarah at the 5 is not a big lineup, but they both play bigger than their height. Combine that with maybe Paige at the 3, Azzi the 2, and KK at the 1. Then if we wanted to go bigger than that, play Sarah and Aubrey together with Jana, where Jana is in the post and either Aubrey or Sarah plays the 3 with the other at the 4. Finish that lineup with Azzi and Paige at the 2 and 1 respectively.

i think both of those lineups could be better than the current one, and give Geno the ability to lean big or small without having to take the more drastic step of one big and four true guards, which could be a problem against the top contenders. Still that version of small ball with Paige at the 4 could still be used when appropriate, and we know against many teams it can be effective.

But overall I see the rest of the team from health and development raising their level to compliment Paige and Sarah much better, and with the addition of Aubrey, the ability to battle top contenders much better upfront.

 

[bballnut90]

UCONN reaching a Final Four depends on matchups and health IMO. If Fudd can play consistently and produce against better teams, it improves UCONN's chances greatly. Griffin returning also could make an impact, though I'm unsure whose minutes get chopped since UCONN is immensely deep at the 2/3 spots with Bueckers/Fudd/Cheli/Shade/Griffin all competing for playing time.

When looking at regional matchups, I think the two regionals UCONN needs to avoid are South Carolina and UCLA. South Carolina is just bigger and more athletic than the Huskies and isn't a team I'd want to match up with prior to the Final Four. Similar sentiment about UCLA with their 6-7 post and having a slew of good forwards that are 6-3/6-4 plus solid guard play.

Notre Dame in a rematch is a winnable game, but it'd be tough with Hidalgo (the likely POY) and Miles playing as well as they are, not to mention Citron/King and Westbeld is back. I think if you can slow down Hidalgo or catch ND on a cool shooting night, UCONN can win.

Playing Texas or USC would be an optimal matchup for UCONN though in the regionals. Texas is stacked but still seems like its finding its identity and players are figuring out their roles. For Texas, individual player productivity is all over the place game to game, though this likely will figure itself out over the next couple of months. For USC, they beat UCONN on the road earlier this year, but UCONN was without Fudd and Juju had her best game of the season against a decent opponent. If I'm a betting man, I'd pick UCONN > USC in a rematch.

LSU is another team that would be a better matchup for the Huskies. Morrow/Flaujae are a handful but they don't have much height and they don't seem like they've been playing up to their potential this year despite being undefeated. Ohio State, Kansas State and TCU are dark horse teams that could give the Huskies problems if they matchup in the Sweet 16 due to frontcourt play. Maybe not Ohio State as much, but they're a well built team this season and Cambridge has been terrific at PG. Maryland is solid this year but very guard heavy and UCONN has more talented players, so I think they'd be a great 3 seed matchup for UCONN.

 

[HuskyNan]

UCONN reaching a Final Four depends on matchups and health IMO. If Fudd can play consistently and produce against better teams, it improves UCONN's chances greatly. Griffin returning also could make an impact, though I'm unsure whose minutes get chopped since UCONN is immensely deep at the 2/3 spots with Bueckers/Fudd/Cheli/Shade/Griffin all competing for playing time.

Aubrey Griffen is a 3-4, Morgan Cheli is a 1-5 at this point

 

[yhun89]

So how does UConn match up? We'll see how they fare against SC in February. Losing Ashlyn Watkins for the season is a blow, but Dawn has a pair of 6'5 centers in reserve. Also, any team that can bring a MiLaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson off the bench is loaded.

I don’t know if the centers you mention are any better than Jana though. Adhel Tac looks just as raw and in need of refining as Jana. Dauda barely plays. Combined, in the blowout win vs Texas Tech, those two played 14 minutes. Kitts and Feagin are the two main down low presences. Kitts is good, but Feagin hasn’t really stood out to me all that much.

They can bring Lay and Tessa off the bench, but Azzi can give us 3’s like they can. Sarah is almost impossible to guard 1v1. Paige was guarded by Hall last year and still dropped 20 points. And that was without the threat of Azzi and Sarah.

We’ll finally get to see Griffin against Fulwiley in February most likely and I’m incredibly interested.

 

[Bone Dog]

They have beaten the teams that they should beat and lost to teams that are better than UConn

For USC, they beat UCONN on the road earlier this year, but UCONN was without Fudd and Juju had her best game of the season against a decent opponent. If I'm a betting man, I'd pick UCONN > USC in a rematch.

I keep thinking about that USC game. We got thumped by ND. Part of the problem was King got away with a couple of obvious over the back fouls, but that didn’t make the difference. The fact is Hidalgo Miles and Citron were too much for us as constituted at the time. And having Azzi back might not have changed anything. This might change over the next two months. But ND will be a tough matchup if we meet them again.

USC beat us badly in the first half of that game and we beat them very nearly as badly in the second half. In my mind, this game was a draw for forecasting purposes. And I think the loss of Azzi after Louisville was decisive. I don’t think they’d have been able to play such aggressive on-ball defense in the first half with Azzi on the floor, and that defense was key to the big lead they built. This is why I suspect a second meeting would go rather differently if there is one.

On the whole, then, I agree that we are currently ranked pretty accurately. We have a shot at the title, and at least one upset will likely be required. But we are also still an unknown quantity as a team since more is likely to change in out rotation than for the rest of the top ten. If all the unknowns turn out in our favor — if Aubrey comes back strong, if Jana becomes a consistent force down low, if Azzi and Paige stay healthy, if Morgan and Allie develop well on O and D — we will be obviously better than all but the top 3 or 4 teams. But none of these can be known yet.

This is the same frustrating uncertainty that has become so familiar over the past four years. Our optimism may well be important to sustain ourselves as we wait to see what fate has in store for the team.

 

[Doctor G]

Aubrey Griffen is a 3-4, Morgan Cheli is a 1-5 at this point

Correct.