Halfway Point of the Regular Season

[Surly1]

It's hard to get an accurate read on how good UConn is compared to other top tier programs at this juncture. Teams are in conference mode, and the Big East is not up to par with the Power Four conferences from a competitive standpoint. Paige could miss the remainder of the Big East schedule, and UConn would be the prohibitive favorite. Other than the SC & UT games, UConn will not be tested and that includes Creighton, who do not match up well against UConn.

Are they a Final Four team? Yes. With Geno at the helm, UConn has been to 15 out of the last 16 Final Fours. The only exception was the year Paige did not play. In her 3 seasons, she has propelled UConn to the Final Four. If I were a betting man, and with a track record as noted, I will bank on UConn reaching this level until proven otherwise.

Is UConn one of the top four teams? As of now, no. I believe it's fair to state that UConn is appropriately ranked at 7th in the nation. Some of the luster of earlier wins against NC, Louisville, Ole Miss & Iowa State have lost a little sheen as losses have piled up on their scorecards. Until the tourney begins, UConn's last opportunity for a statement win comes in road games against SC & UT.

As we know, UConn historically improves approaching the postseason. That might apply to all teams, but UConn has a few items trending in its favor. In UConn's loss to ND, Azzi did not play and in the USC game, she was a non entity. As long as she remains healthy, her stroke will improve, taking pressure off of Sarah Strong (not that she appears fazed) and opening the floor for Paige to operate more freely. A healthy Azzi is a game changer.

Hopefully, Aubrey will make her season debut shortly. Aubrey's length, athleticism and defensive prowess is never more valuable in the postseason. For example, if UConn were to match up against USC again, Aubrey would be perfectly suited to guard JuJu, saving Paige to spend her energy on offense. The addition of Aubrey, combined with KK, and the ball swiping ability of SS permits UConn to implement their version of Ohio State & Tennessee full court pressure, turning defense into offense. A healthy Aubrey is a difference maker.

I applaud Geno for inserting Jana into the starting lineup. Most of the teams that UConn would likely have to beat for a 12th NC have imposing bigs. While UConn can play with 4 guards & Sarah Strong in the Big East and win comfortably, size still matters. Ideally, Jana builds her confidence and comfort level during Big East play, and relies more on her natural instincts rather than over thinking. The same applies to Morgan and Allie. A confident Jana is a space maker.

I commend Geno for expanding his rotation, at least during conference play. I feel he's come around that today's freshmen (Sarah aside) around the country are ready to play and make an impact. All they need is reps and playing time. Look at Michigan. They start 3 prized freshmen and have lost 5 games; SC, UCLA, USC, Ohio St and Oklahoma. Although I feel they are a year away, they won't be intimidated by any team they play in the tournament.

So how does UConn match up? We'll see how they fare against SC in February. Losing Ashlyn Watkins for the season is a blow, but Dawn has a pair of 6'5 centers in reserve. Also, any team that can bring a MiLaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson off the bench is loaded. As of now, UCLA is the team to beat, with Kiki Rice at the helm and Lauren Betts dominating. ND's guard duo grabs the headlines, but ND is a deceptively good defensive team. However, if UConn meets up with them again, I don't expect Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles will hit as many 3's. I feel USC is a more complete team this year and JuJu is capable of going off anytime, but I like UConn's chances if they meet up again. Texas is deep, have size, a star in Madison Booker, and a pair of dynamic freshmen. I would love to see Sarah Strong paired against Madison Booker

The last point is reserved for Paige. This is her last opportunity to win a NC and stamp herself a certified UConn legend. Here's to her channeling her inner Diana Taurasi and accepting the challenge of taking over games when needed in the tourney to win, not worrying about anything else.

Unlike last year, UConn will have more assets to play situationally and the luxury to fine tune rotations and lineups before the Big Dance begins. Although they're not quite there, I see the destination on the horizon.

 

[ERWUC65]

Any projections going forward, will, of course, be dependent on everyone's rosters staying healthy, something certainly not a given considering the pace of play and competitiveness of the ladies game this year. Assuming the best for UConn, e.g., having Paige, Sarah and Azzi at full go and Aubrey at mostly full go should put us able to hang with the top 5 (UCLA,USC,SC,ND). Getting there, though, is going to be challenging if 5-10 (Oklahoma, MD, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, or 10-15 (Georgia Tech, Kansas State, TCU, Kentucky, Duke) end up being in our draw. We have a bit of a luxury in the next few weeks with Big East games while the aforementioned teams beat up on each other. I see the Tennessee game as a real bellweather, they are better than I thought, having lost barely to Oklahoma and USC, albeit at home.

 

[MTSuitsky]

That's a thoughtful summary, o Surly one. Thank you for sharing.

My question concerns Kaitlyn Chen. She is not the impact player at either end of the floor that I expected her to be. I'm not saying she is a liability. I just don't know what to make of her. KK is improving nicely and fans understandably want to see her get more minutes. Chen isn't providing all that much resistance. I'm curious what other people think. Am I guilty of having overhyped Chen's talents?

Here's hoping Cheli continues to earn quality time, Ziebell builds on her Xavier performance, and El-Alfy makes positive strides. UConn is going to need that depth and more (Aubrey Griffin) in two months.

 

[Bone Dog]

I feel he's come around that today's freshmen (Sarah aside) around the country are ready to play and make an impact. All they need is reps and playing time.

I generally agree with your assessment. But this one remark leaves me wondering. Yes, some freshmen are ready to play at a D1 level. But this may not be the same as being ready to play for UConn. When I watched a few Michigan games what I notice is that they run quite simplistic offensive and defensive schemes. Swords and Olson are having excellent seasons, but Michigan isn’t fully competitive as a team because of the way the team is organized. USC looks to be another case of this — great talent but not sophisticated offensive and defensive schemes. USC has great athletes, freshmen among them, and they were able to expose a flaw in our lineup, a temporary flaw, that had disappeared by the second half. We probably won’t play them again this season, but if we were to, I doubt the result would be the same. This was their problem last season, too. We beat them handily then while running 3 freshmen — the final score looked close because of FT shooting woes.

Geno has always known how to play freshmen when they’re ready, and not just because injuries forced him to. And a few have been ready to get substantial minutes right away, like Paige, Sarah, Christyn, Maya, but also Nykesha, Carla, Shea, Svet, Tamika, Asjha, Swin, Diana, Ann and Wilnett, Charde, Renee, and of course Tina. This list is incomplete, I expect, but it shows that Geno hasn’t really ever been opposed to playing freshmen. He is cautious about placing excessive demands on kids who aren’t ready for them, especially since his read-and-react schemes are very demanding and take a while to learn.

 

[MSGRET]

I generally agree with your assessment. But this one remark leaves me wondering. Yes, some freshmen are ready to play at a D1 level. But this may not be the same as being ready to play for UConn. When I watched a few Michigan games what I notice is that they run quite simplistic offensive and defensive schemes. Swords and Olson are having excellent seasons, but Michigan isn’t fully competitive as a team because of the way the team is organized. USC looks to be another case of this — great talent but not sophisticated offensive and defensive schemes. USC has great athletes, freshmen among them, and they were able to expose a flaw in our lineup, a temporary flaw, that had disappeared by the second half. We probably won’t play them again this season, but if we were to, I doubt the result would be the same. This was their problem last season, too. We beat them handily then while running 3 freshmen — the final score looked close because of FT shooting woes.

Geno has always known how to play freshmen when they’re ready, and not just because injuries forced him to. And a few have been ready to get substantial minutes right away, like Paige, Sarah, Christyn, Maya, but also Nykesha, Carla, Shea, Svet, Tamika, Asjha, Swin, Diana, Ann and Wilnett, Charde, Renee, and of course Tina. This list is incomplete, I expect, but it shows that Geno hasn’t really ever been opposed to playing freshmen. He is cautious about placing excessive demands on kids who aren’t ready for them, especially since his read-and-react schemes are very demanding and take a while to learn.

I believe that both KLS and Phesa should be added to your list of Super Freshman.

 

[Monte]

It will be interesting from now on. UCONN is not dominating WBB as they did for so many years.
There are now several teams which could reach and win the NCAA championship. However, we cannot count UCONN out. Let's stay healthy, and see what Geno accomplishes with this team.

 

[sun]

For me, the South Carolina game will be a major indicator. If UConn loses it won't be the end of the world but they need to keep the final score close. It shouldn't really matter whether Chen or KK starts when neither would be expected to play the full 40 minutes anyway & Chen still knows perfectly well how to score points.
If UConn also loses the Tennessee game then that would be a really bad omen for their seeding in March.

 

[Skeets]

I like Aubrey. Energetic and athletic. But I said this before, some fan(natics) expectations are getting out of control. "UConn will be great when Aubey comes back, Aubrey will be the difference maker", etc. I believe UConn will go wherever they go with or without Aubrey. If anyone is a little disappointed down the road maybe it's because their expectations were out of whack.

If a couple of months from now Aubrey makes this post sound foolish, that would be more than OK with me.

 

[Bone Dog]

I like Aubrey. Energetic and athletic. But I said this before, some fan(natics) expectations are getting out of control. "UConn will be great when Aubey comes back, Aubrey will be the difference maker", etc. I believe UConn will go wherever they go with or without Aubrey. If anyone is a little disappointed down the road maybe it's because their expectations were out of whack.

If a couple of months from now Aubrey makes this post sound foolish, that would be more than OK with me.

For Aubrey to make a substantial difference she’d have to come back as she was before the injury. There’s no guarantee of this. When people express their hopes for a possible NC run in terms of Aubrey’s return, they’re expressing a lack of confidence in our current frontcourt. This is not surprising given last season’s experience when our frontcourt in March consisted of Aaliyah, Ice and Paige. It’s also a holdover from the optimism of the summer.

I’d add to this concern the loss of Ayanna. We have no idea what she’d have been able to bring to the team other than strength and quickness. But this might have made a significant difference in a rather thin frontcourt. Losing her is a blow to the team’s hopes. And I’m sure some of us, including me, held out some hope Caroline might also return and bring added depth. Finally the setback Azzi suffered in the Louisville game and what Paige suffered in the Providence game gave many of us a shock.

Over the summer, many of us pictured the healthiest version of the team and forecast the sunniest prospects. It wasn’t unreasonable at the time to think we’d be an obvious NC contender if all the assumptions were born out. Now, the fact is some of these assumptions will not be borne out.

But at least one assumption has turned out better than any of us hoped, namely Sarah’s readiness to be a headliner. She’s exceeded any reasonable expectation. There’s also still time for other things to break our way. Jana is developing as well as we ought to have expected and could be an effective center by March. And Morgan and Allie still have time to become important contributors. And KK and Ash are performing more or less as many hoped they would.

UConn is still an NC contender, but not as obviously so as we seemed in September. The favorites ahead of us are still UCLA, SC and ND. We might upset any of them, and they may falter in other ways, but their paths to an NC looks to be wider than ours. USC, LSU, MD, Texas have hopes that seem to be on a par with ours. We could beat any of them merely by staying healthy and playing our game, and the same could be said of them. And there’s probably a dozen other teams who could upset us in March if only a few things break their way, teams like Michigan or Tennessee or tOSU. This is what not being one of the favorites looks like.

The upshot of all this is I still think we have a shot at an NC. But how good a shot depends on a few factors outside of our control.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

When Aubrey was injured last year on January 3, 2024, UConn had 17 games left to the regular season.

• Geno challenged seniors Nika, Aaliyah and Paige and they responded;
• UConn still lost 2 more games — to ND (7th game hence) (Nika fouls out) and to SC (11th game hence) — in the next 17 games;
• But they became postseason ready — in as much as an effective 6-man rotation could that had to play within certain parameters to conserve energy and avoid foul trouble — reaching the final four and was two points and a questionable call away from the finals.

Geno has had a 15-game training bandwidth this season, and this UConn team is on a remarkable virtuous cycle to the postseason:

• like last year’s 6-man rotation in 17 regular season games, this year’s team lost 2 games in 15 games;
• but Geno has a remarkable unparalleled record — all of it in the Big East/ AAC — and still has 16 more regular season games with Azzi rounding to form, Aubrey waiting in the wings and the young roster developing remarkably.

Some fans think that developing players is like turning carbon into diamond — best with a steady diet of tough January-March conference games:

• this past summer’s U18 FIBA Americup with Sarah Strong is a further cautionary tale;
• there was some fan angst on whether Geno recruited the best incoming freshman in Sarah Strong based on her relative performance in this past summer’s U18 FIBA Americup where the U.S. coach’s chosen game play was that of a glorified HS game that got exposed in the finals;
• Geno’s system has allowed the best in Sarah Strong to develop and shine.

Imo, this UConn team has the potential to really eventually mirror the team that it looks very similar to on paper — the second year of TASSK that won the national championship over the (athletic and rebounding) TN Superteam.

The 1-loss 2nd year TASSK team:

• had a deep, talented roster;
• had balanced minutes and scoring;
• was a pick-your-poison team;
• had an engine of Shea-Svet-Tamika;
• had a Noah’s Ark (at least two-of-everything for positions (1)-(5)) roster &1;
• played relentlessly for 40 minutes;
• had an effective two point guard rotation of Sue and KJ.

Re: Kaitlyn:

Sue, who had an injury year to really study and catalogue her team’s proclivities, was tasked by Geno by saying that everything bad that happens to the team is her fault;

• Geno is not making any substantial complaints about Kaitlyn as the starting point guard because the team is mostly meeting or exceeding Geno’s expectations at this point for most aspects;
• Kaitlyn is doing everything Geno requires of his point guards — including taking open shots as the designated 5th option on offense which have looked great but have not gone in — same thing that can be said thus far of every player not named Paige or Sarah;
• As the 5th option, Kaitlyn’s responsibility is to get the Big 3 (Paige, Azzi and Sarah) going, so the press can get going, etc. and to spend energy guarding the opponent’s lead point guard;
• KK’s most advanced particular type of defense and offense, imo, would not be as effective as the 5th option among the starters; her energy will not be put to the best use as it is now;
• KK would really be extra lethal with Aubrey and energizer bunny Ash, as game changers from the bench;
• Next year, Geno has Kellis to take on KK’s current responsibilities as game-changer from the bench; KK’s point guard honed capabilities and maturity wherewithal will be what Geno requires by then.

&1 Geno has the luxury for strategic substitutions. If a player, say Azzi, is initially not playing well, he can sub in Ash to get Azzi a breather to eventually get going. With a stable of remarkably developing players, he has several designated hitters that can come in with unique contributions from the bench at a particular time — and it doesn’t need to involve substantial scoring (e.g. Morgan).

• And each designated hitter is capable of being the star/ badass performer on any given game.