Guess the line for Saturday vs BYU | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Guess the line for Saturday vs BYU

HooperScooper said:
ESPN says the line opened at 3.5 and has gone to 5.5. I hope the sharps are right. I'm nervous about this game but I hope all of you that are confident the Huskies take care of business are right. I don't want to walk out of the Garden with a loss.

www.espn.com

UConn 86-84 BYU (Nov 15, 2025) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the UConn Huskies vs. BYU Cougars NCAAM game, final score 86-84, from November 15, 2025 on ESPN.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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Zero chance of that happening
 
Platt81 said:
It 100% has to do with the point spread. A perceived starter and one and done not playing is going to impact the spread of basically every game until he’s back. To say it doesn’t would indicate you believe he has no impact on outcome of game if he is available.
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I could be wrong but I notice when established starters are announced as out the line usually barely moves. And Mullins isn’t an established starter yet. Maybe he could move the line a little bit but certainly not 4-6 points like you said.

Any heavy gamblers want to weigh in on this?
 
HooperScooper said:
I could be wrong but I notice when established starters are announced as out the line usually barely moves. And Mullins isn’t an established starter yet. Maybe he could move the line a little bit but certainly not 4-6 points like you said.

Any heavy gamblers want to weigh in on this?
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I notice this as well. Line will only move based on the money that comes in. Once a line is set, information doent move it as much as the money will. That being said, an NFL QB being ruled out will move the line. Almost any other position in any other sport won’t move it much.
 
The line can definitely move if a player who was expected to play is out. If AJ or Saunders were out it would move 2-3 pts. With Kennard it moved 1 pt.

The Purdue / Alabama game flopped from -2.5 to -4.5 based on whether or not TKR would play.

In terms of Mullins, he wasn't expected to play when the line was released so relatively it wouldn't change. If he wasn't injured, its possible the initial line would've been a point or 2 higher if he's been a major contributor.

Once people start piling on, the line can drift another pt or two. Hence now -5.5. Home teams often drift 1 or 2 pts since their opening line the day before. If UConn was home it probably would've gone -5.5 to -7.5. That's why I always try to hit the lines as soon as they're released the day before. But then again that's slightly risky if a player is ruled out the day of.
 
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XLCenterFan said:
I notice this as well. Line will only move based on the money that comes in. Once a line is set, information doent move it as much as the money will. That being said, an NFL QB being ruled out will move the line. Almost any other position in any other sport won’t move it much.
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Jay-Bone said:
In terms of Mullins, he wasn't expected to play when the line was released so relatively it wouldn't change. If he wasn't injured, its possible the initial line would've been a point or 2 higher if he's been a major contributor.
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That was my assumption also. Thanks to both of you for confirming. I think what @Platt81 was saying is that if Mullins had played all season he would have been a huge contributor and the spread would have been much higher. As you said maybe a point or two if that had happened, but certainly not 4-6 points.
 
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HooperScooper said:
That was my assumption also. Thanks to both of you for confirming. I think what @Platt81 was saying is that if Mullins had played all season he would have been a huge contributor and the spread would have been much higher. I just don't think that is true for multiple reasons.
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Hard to say for sure without knowing his impact. One of the few things about this game that has me concerned is BYU is more battle tested having faced Villanova (for what that's worth). If Mullins had played, is a proven stud, and we beat Purdue by 20, then maybe the line would be -10.5. Otherwise we have no real evidence.
 
Jay-Bone said:
Hard to say for sure without knowing his impact. One of the few things about this game that has me concerned is BYU is more battle tested having faced Villanova (for what that's worth). If Mullins had played, is a proven stud, and we beat Purdue by 20, then maybe the line would be -10.5. Otherwise we have no real evidence.
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They handled MSU without Reed. Sparty is better than Villanova. I don’t think the battle tested thing is an issue.
 
superjohn said:
People seem a little overconfident for this one. BYU is loaded, this is going to be a really tough game.
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Loaded = 3 offensive guys and 2 (now 1) defensive guys. They will try to foul out Reed and double team on D opening up Solo or Silas for outside shooting. They lost their best defender to DUI as Wright barely plays D should be great for our guards.

Frontcourt is where all the risk is with Saunders and AJ but we have depth and they do not.

Currently on train heading…
 
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Talent aside, BYU is a much worse matchup for us than Michigan State. Think about what Jamiya Neal did to us, and now make Jamiya Neal into AJ Dybantsa.
 
Ok, shoot me, but I'm going with -11.5 good guys. If Reed stays out of foul trouble he will be a nightmare for BYU, along with Solo, Demery and crew, we are a deeper team in all of our positions. Our team will wear them down, regardless of their front court of Saunders and AJ. They have not showed any true dominance leading up to this game. Go UConn!!!!
 
superjohn said:
People seem a little overconfident for this one. BYU is loaded, this is going to be a really tough game.
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BYU has 3 guys. I don’t think Keita and Baker even crack our rotation. I’ll take Reibe and Ross, certainly Smith and Stew. A true chip contender is winning this home away from home game.
 
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