Greg Swaim: Big12 About to Wake Up

[Adios]

Don't know if this was posted before:

http://www.theacc.com/genrel/120612aab.html

Dec. 6, 2012

"We, the undersigned presidents of the Atlantic Coast Conference, wish to express our commitment to preserve and protect the future of our outstanding league. We want to be clear that the speculation about ACC schools in negotiations or considering alternatives to the ACC are totally false. The presidents of the ACC are united in our commitment to a strong and enduring conference. The ACC has long been a leader in intercollegiate athletics, both academically and athletically, and the constitution of our existing and future member schools will maintain the ACC's position as one of the nation's premier conferences."

L O L.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I thought it was Iggy Pop!

No. We're dealing with a different set of stooges.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

We're dealing with a different set of stooges.

If only the growing crew of stooges was limited to Larry, Moe, and Curley.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The WVU insiders have no credibility when it comes to predicting the ACC's demise. They all hate the ACC because WVU was rejected for being a school of hillbillies, and they have admitted as much.

 

[freescooter]

The ACC is not going to crash and burn if it loses Florida State and Clemson and even if you go wild and throw in Miami, though why anyone would want the 'Canes is beyond me. Louisville is basically a commuter school version of Clemson as it is. If NC State left, I think the other 3 Carolina schools would help them pack. You add UConn and Cincinnati and I'm not sure your much, if any, worse off. You still have a power program in VaTech. Cincinnati and Louisville are comparable to Clemson and Miami in terms of quality of play, probably better, then UConn fills in for whoever else . You may well have upgraded your football side in reality (though I know on field performance counts less than "history and tradition" in college football), but its at least solid, and you still have by far the best basketball conference in the country.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nothing is happening. The past week was just another message board insider circle jerk to drive page views. These happen about every 2-3 weeks.

 

[freescooter]

Nothing is happening immediately, but I do think the Big 12 is being pressed to go to at least 12 so they can have a league title game. The Big, PAC and SEC do not want the Big 12 champ to have an easier road to the playoffs than they do. But I'm not 100% sure which direction they will go to do it or when it will happen. My guess is there will be some movement this summer.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Tuxedo Yoda ‏@TuxedoYoda
Heard from my Austin source. B12 is meeting to pick 4 teams that will be offered. Only ? is about Clemson. FSU, Miami, NC State are locks.

 

[upstater]

Tuxedo Yoda ‏@TuxedoYoda
Heard from my Austin source. B12 is meeting to pick 4 teams that will be offered. Only ? is about Clemson. FSU, Miami, NC State are locks.

LOL, Clemson is a hangup? Say wha? Clemson is more B12 football than NC St and Miami.

 

[noeynox]

LOL, Clemson is a hangup? Say wha? Clemson is more B12 football than NC St and Miami.

Maybe they're having reservations, maybe they view themselves as establishing themselves as THE anchor school in the ACC. If they stay, and UNC stays and they bring in UConn and Cincinatti, the ACC, while the weakest of the five power leagues, would still have a seat at the table long term.

 

[hexlub]

Tuxedo Yoda ‏@TuxedoYoda
Heard from my Austin source. B12 is meeting to pick 4 teams that will be offered. Only ? is about Clemson. FSU, Miami, NC State are locks.

Is his Austin source Willie Nelson? Because that would be awesome.

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

if the ACC loses Miami, FSU, Clemson and NC State, it is dead in football regardless if VaTech stays or goes. If they lose UNC, UVa etc forget it.

Uconn's only hope is if a conference decides it wants a northeast pod with Syracuse and BC and Uconn. Maybe that's the Big12. Otherwise, college football at Uconn and in the northeast in general is not relevent

 

[Adios]

If the Big 12 take NC State and/or Virginia Tech, that seems to indicate that UNC and UVA are leaning towards the SEC.

 

[Adios]

Otherwise, college football at Uconn and in the northeast in general is not relevent

It will become relevant in a matter of time.

 

[Vowelguy]

If the Big 12 take NC State and/or Virginia Tech, that seems to indicate that UNC and UVA are leaning towards the SEC.

what leads you to that conclusion?

 

[OkaForPrez]

Bowlsby about to be on Dallas radio for those interested

http://www.iheart.com/live/The-Ticket-5524/

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Tuxedo Yoda ‏@TuxedoYoda
Heard from my Austin source. B12 is meeting to pick 4 teams that will be offered. Only ? is about Clemson. FSU, Miami, NC State are locks.

More relevant is Chip Brown is teasing at a realignment story. Chip doesn't leave his desk to take a bathroom break without clearing it with UT's athletic department, so if he is teasing that something is about to break, it means Texas has authorized him to do so.

There may actually be something real happening this time.

 

[Vowelguy]

Tuxedo Yoda ‏@TuxedoYoda
Heard from my Austin source. B12 is meeting to pick 4 teams that will be offered. Only ? is about Clemson. FSU, Miami, NC State are locks.

Great. So with the loss of FL teams, the ACC looks to shore up its southern flank by adding USF & UCF, and standing pat.

 

[Adios]

what leads you to that conclusion?

Because if UNC and UVA were not interested in the SEC, VT and NC State would be aiming for the SEC.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Notes from Bowlsby Interview:

Number of different elements to the question of big 12 going to 16. Not convinced that any conferences (B1G, SEC) are moving to 16. Only time will tell, dosen't believe there is a grand strategy. Big 10 beat up for expanding with Rutgers and Md, believes they will move slower.

Big 12 is all about looking at the bottom line and looking at the quality of competition. Full round robin in football, full double round robin in basketball. Most $ per school. Those are the benefits of staying at 10.

Not oblivious to whats going on around us. We will look at what getting larger does for us and what staying at current does for us. There is no empirical evidence that larger is better.

Still advocating for ability to have a championship game with 10 teams. In this period of deregulation NCAA needs to consider doing away with that rule. Even without a championship game Big12 believes they have an "unfettered pathway" to the NC game.

Big 12 spending time on a process as an academic exercise to make sure that any new member has to move the needle from a revenue perspective and be competitive at the highest level. Moving to 11 is not a viable option for us. The option for Big12 would be moving from 10 to 12. The question that begs asking is moving from 10 to 12 not as advantaged as being at 14. Some leagues are already experiencing some negative consequences of moving to 14.

I have not had any schools contact me at any level not through an intermediary or through direct contact. Lots of speculation and back channel conversations from presidents from time to time but we have given no serious consideration during the time I have been affiliated with the conference.

Process like Jr high dating. If he liked you would you like him. Nobody wants to apply and get turned out, and nobody wants to reach out and be rebuked. Its a sensitive process that we haven't been involved in at this time, but that's not to say that we have not been thinking strategically. Its our duty to be prepared if something were to happen.

Everyone in higher ed and intercollegiate athletics would want to have what UT does with the longhorn network. Having a relationship 24/7 with ESPN is a huge advantage for UT and would be for anyone else. Also an advantage for Big12 because its the only conference that has a member with a relationship like that. Oklahoma has done a great job of building its own network with fox sports. Every one of our institutions has put together their own packages activating their third tier rights. Unique model in big12 where tier 3 passes through to the members. This model driven because of Long Horn network, but they aren't the only ones capitalizing on this model. Exposure for big12 highest its ever been. Not only are we distributing 25 million per member ramping up to 40 million, but institutions generating their own revenue via third tier.

 

[OkaForPrez]

My opinion: Big12 does not move until the big10 strikes again. Bowlsby indicated they need to be prepared if "something were to happen." I think that means the B1G has to further destabilize the ACC before the Big 12 would be able to engage. As a result the big12 is doing two key pieces of due dilligence. They are assessing the most valuable schools and they are testing the rigidity of the championship game rule.

For me the equation = If The B1G takes 2 and if we cannot get a championship game at 10 and if adding schools can be proven profitable than we will expand.

I'm also particularly intrigued by the concept of the size of the conference and its ability to create a pathway to the NC game. Anyone have further insights on the impact of conference size on this process?

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

to me, the logical size is 18 or 20 teams, with each division of 9-10 playing round robin in football and then two division champs playing in championship game. 16 doesn't make sense really. but who knows. I think B1G goes to 20, but no so sure the others move unless one can get FSU

 

[Adios]

to me, the logical size is 18 or 20 teams, with each division of 9-10 playing round robin in football and then two division champs playing in championship game. 16 doesn't make sense really. but who knows. I think B1G goes to 20, but no so sure the others move unless one can get FSU

Precisely what I've been thinking can happen down the road. If the B1G goes that far, we're pretty much a shoo-in for the B1G.

 

[upstater]

Great. So with the loss of FL teams, the ACC looks to shore up its southern flank by adding USF & UCF, and standing pat.

Without the football schools, the ACC members are looking to get out of town to other conferences. Or stand pat and create the best bball conference out there. I doubt that's the case. But it would happen long before UCF and USF were invited.

 

[OkaForPrez]

to me, the logical size is 18 or 20 teams, with each division of 9-10 playing round robin in football and then two division champs playing in championship game. 16 doesn't make sense really. but who knows. I think B1G goes to 20, but no so sure the others move unless one can get FSU

Even so the exercise is still a trade off decision between max revenue per school vs. the most convenient scheduling set up and ability to send a team into the +1 system. Ability to send a school to the +1 is an order qualifier. You have to have that advantage for your conference. As such I could see the Big12 moving to expand to 12 to get a championship game and a road to the playoff even if the additions were net 0 or partially revenue diluting. I.E. if you were to go from 25mil per year to say 23 million but your % likelihood of making the +1 went up by 25%, you would have to factor in the risk adjusted opportunity cost of the NC payout + goodwill for the conference for being involved against that revenue loss. The top of the conference would probably be an expansion lean in that scenario but maybe not the bottom of the conference footballwise.

As far as the Big10 is concerned, their motives were clearly demographics driven, but the equation is the same. All this time we've been arguing that the ACC schools are watching the outcome of the UMD exit fee to assess the financial impact of the decision, but the more I think about it the process is far more inhibited by the B1G assessing the ability to realize their assumptions about the adds in terms of revenue. The UMD exit fee decision isn't the next domino, its the tier penetration in the Rutgers and UMD markets. What is a catch 22 for Uconn in terms of all of our expansion theories is that we were hoping that Rutgers dosen't deliver the NYC market so that we could be the critical mass that is required, but I actually see a failure to execute that strategy (penetrate NYC with rutgers) as the death nail to big10 expansion. I don't see them likely to double down on a failed bet.

In any case, I'm resigned that the B1g's next move won't be for at least a year if that soon. They need to see the impact of their adds to the cable providers. And as for the big12? Even if we are lucky and the NCAA rejects the petition for the championship game, I think they'll need a year of being first runner up in the +1 format to be motivated to move off their perch.