Graham Hayes: Thoughts at the midway point

[pap49cba]

Long read but worth it....

LINK

 

[EricLA]

liked his last line a lot... "But Baylor, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Stanford, in alphabetical order, used the season's first 60 days to form a breakaway pack in the race to Denver. If you want to make it to the season's final weekend, you're going to have to go through one of them."

 

[BrianUC]

There really are an elite four this year and any of those teams can win it all. In games among the four, the home team has been undefeated and games have been close. None of the four lost to any non-elite teams.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I also agree about the NPOY race. There are 3 very legit contenders.

 

[triaddukefan]

liked his last line a lot... "But Baylor, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Stanford, in alphabetical order, used the season's first 60 days to form a breakaway pack in the race to Denver. If you want to make it to the season's final weekend, you're going to have to go through one of them."

Im still convinced one of those 4 wont make it to Denver.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Im still convinced one of those 4 wont make it to Denver.

Any team in particular? I would not be surprised if 1 or 2 fall just short, but I think those 4 are the heavy favorites.

 

[BrianUC]

I also agree about the NPOY race. There are 3 very legit contenders.

Hey, Alana Beard won some POY awards over Diana so it's possible, although in retrospect, what were they thinking? In 2012, I can't imagine picking against the overwhelmingly best defensive player and a top 3 offensive player on an eventual undefeated (regular season) team.

 

[EricLA]

Im still convinced one of those 4 wont make it to Denver.

well, to be fair, at this point the 2 seeds would most likely be Maryland, Duke, Tennessee and then RU, Kentucky, or TTU (as of today). assuming RU loses to no one other than UCONN or ND, and Kentucky loses to no one but Tennessee the rest of the way, i think Kentucky would get the nod. i'm not sure about TTU but if they only lose to Baylor and win out (more unlikely) they would have a case too.

anyway, assuming Maryland, Duke, Tennessee and Kentucky, which of those teams would knock off the 1 seed? Tenn already lost to Stanford and Baylor. they have a game vs. ND where they will be at full strength. Maryland plays none of them, but have been unimpressive (an OT win over UNC? we will see how good UNC is when they play UCONN). Duke IMHO has the most "potential" - i'd be interested to see a Duke/Stanford matchup because IMHO i see Stanford as the weakest of the 1 seeds.

and by the way, if the 2 seeds are Duke, Maryland, Tennessee and Kentucky, the 3 seeds would be RU, TTU, A&M, and probably Miami. or maybe Green Bay. OSU would be a joke as a 3 seed but who knows. not sure if any of those teams could knock off a 2 seed but RU played tennessee close a few weeks back...

of course, the season is about half over. plenty of time for some teams to improve/gel more than others and my armchair analysis may well be thrown out the window in 2 months...

 

[MilfordHusky]

Hey, Alana Beard won some POY awards over Diana so it's possible, although in retrospect, what were they thinking? In 2012, I can't imagine picking against the overwhelmingly best defensive player and a top 3 offensive player on an eventual undefeated (regular season) team.

Diana played hurt, and I believe her numbers were down slightly. Beard raised her game and carried Duke. I can understand it, though don't agree with it.

Re Griner, if Baylor wins out through the conference tourney, that helps her vote. I think they will do it, but they are not there yet. If the team has 1-2 hiccups, that could cost her some votes. Similarly for Stanford and Delaware. It is possible that all 3 teams will run the table.

 

[triaddukefan]

Any team in particular? I would not be surprised if 1 or 2 fall just short, but I think those 4 are the heavy favorites.

Hey, Alana Beard won some POY awards over Diana so it's possible, although in retrospect, what were they thinking? .

triaddukefan dislikes this.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

well, to be fair, at this point the 2 seeds would most likely be Maryland, Duke, Tennessee and then RU, Kentucky, or TTU (as of today)...i think Kentucky would get the nod. i'm not sure about TTU but if they only lose to Baylor and win out (more unlikely) they would have a case too.

anyway, assuming Maryland, Duke, Tennessee and Kentucky, which of those teams would knock off the 1 seed?

and by the way, if the 2 seeds are Duke, Maryland, Tennessee and Kentucky, the 3 seeds would be RU, TTU, A&M, and probably Miami. or maybe Green Bay. OSU would be a joke as a 3 seed but who knows. not sure if any of those teams could knock off a 2 seed

Shortened your post to key points - I agree with the seeding, except that TTU is very unlikely, having played a much weaker schedule and likely to have losses or have too low an RPI for a 2 seed.

But any of the 2 or 3 seeds could knock off a higher team, which you appear to doubt. Rutgers has pulled some significant upsets - including undefeated ND their NC year. And I don't buy that a single game against an opponent defines things beyond a doubt. But the point, as a late RU fan put it "that's why they play the game". While I think the top 4 our heavy favorites - and bearing in mind things could change as the season progresses - I would suggest Stanford as most vulnerable, Baylor as least, and the two BE teams inbetween.

 

[BrianUC]

triaddukefan dislikes this.

triaddukefan - I was thinking about the sheer awesomeness of Diana and didn't mean to insult Alana who was a great player at Duke. Sorry about that.

 

[EricLA]

Shortened your post to key points - I agree with the seeding, except that TTU is very unlikely, having played a much weaker schedule and likely to have losses or have too low an RPI for a 2 seed.

But any of the 2 or 3 seeds could knock off a higher team, which you appear to doubt. Rutgers has pulled some significant upsets - including undefeated ND their NC year. And I don't buy that a single game against an opponent defines things beyond a doubt. But the point, as a late RU fan put it "that's why they play the game". While I think the top 4 our heavy favorites - and bearing in mind things could change as the season progresses - I would suggest Stanford as most vulnerable, Baylor as least, and the two BE teams inbetween.

good point Knights. i always enjoy your posts - and i had not looked at TTU's schedule. makes sense what you said. certainly i hope anyone knocks off tennessee - the earlier the better. i think there are some teams who probably have more "room" for improvement than others - teams who are relying on freshmen and/or sophomores and are working not only on team chemistry, but in acclimating the newbies into an effective lineup.

to me, teams like Duke, RU, UCONN and even tennessee fall into that category. i'm not saying teams that rely on upper classmen won't improve, it just seems that the "improving curve" is larger with teams that rely more on younsters. even tho tennessee is senior-heavy, i included them cuz they start a freshie PG.

 

[alexrgct]

If you think about last season, there were four clear #1 seeds. They had an incestuous series of losses to one another. UConn beat Baylor, Baylor beat Tennessee, Tennessee beat Stanford, and Stanford beat UConn. In each case, the victorious team was the home team. And yet none of those teams ended up in the finals. I'd say Baylor, ND, UConn, and Stanford look like #1 seeds as of right now, but Duke or Tennessee could easily play the role of spoiler. After all, Duke had ND on the ropes earlier, and Tennessee, although I don't think they're consistent enough to win it all, definitely are dangerous enough to beat a #1 seed on a given night.

 

[triaddukefan]

triaddukefan - I was thinking about the sheer awesomeness of Diana and didn't mean to insult Alana who was a great player at Duke. Sorry about that.

I know...... was just joshing with you. Actually taurasi was probably all time favorite non-duke player to watch. I remember watching her play in her early years in college... in maybe her fresh or soph year. I was telling a co-worker about this girl at UCONN who was this unbelievably talented player..... who could end up being one of the all time best players in wcbb history. Later in their senior years... the same co-worker and I were discussing who we thought was a better player/talent. I wouldnt have traded beard for any player in the country that year.... but I did say that I thought Taurasi was probably more talented.. was definitely more flashy... but that Beard was a better all around player.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Alex, you express my point better than I did - "on any given night". It might take the "perfect" game to beat Baylor, UConn and Notre Dame - but "on a given night" that could happen.

Depending on the opponent, Duke, Tenn, RU, Maryland, KY and Miami appear to have the best shot at an upset of a particular elite team. Its all in the matchups.

 

[triaddukefan]

Alex, you express my point better than I did - "on any given night". It might take the "perfect" game to beat Baylor, UConn and Notre Dame - but "on a given night" that could happen.

Depending on the opponent, Duke, Tenn, RU, Maryland, KY and Miami appear to have the best shot at an upset of a particular elite team. Its all in the matchups.

To piggyback on this post... of the Four Probable #1 seeds.... which outside team would yall say has the best chance of beating each individual #1. Eg... which non #1 seeded team would have the best shot at knocking off Baylor...which one vs ND... and so on down the line. Personally I think Kentucky and Maryland would be a handful for Stanford.

 

[Vowelguy]

liked his last line a lot... "But Baylor, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Stanford, in alphabetical order, used the season's first 60 days to form a breakaway pack in the race to Denver. If you want to make it to the season's final weekend, you're going to have to go through one of them."

I think it's funny that everyone always overlooks MD. Maybe the thought is that the losses will come, but so far they haven't. And I'm not sold yet on Stanford being separate from the pack.

 

[EricLA]

I think it's funny that everyone always overlooks MD. Maybe the thought is that the losses will come, but so far they haven't. And I'm not sold yet on Stanford being separate from the pack.

but you are sold on Maryland who just needed a heroic effort to even get the game to OT vs. UNC, and then won it on OT? Sure Maryland beat Georgetown right out the gate. but they beat Deleware by 9 points. they needed OT to beat UNC. i'm not saying they aren't solid, but from what i've seen (so far) they aren't in the same class as the top 4.

but that's just my opinion. we'll know more when UCONN matches up with UNC to see how both deal with a common opponent. i realize it's not completely apples to apples, but it will give us some reference. also UCONN and Maryland both play Duke. i totally think MD is deserving of being ranked 5, but the scare vs. a UNC team i don't believe is very good told me a lot about them.

 

[alexrgct]

Maryland also won by only nine against a solid but not great Michigan squad and by only three against a Georgia Tech team that's lost to every ranked opponent it's played. I think Maryland could play the role of spoiler, but I'm not sold on them as front-runners at all.

 

[HuskyNan]

Maryland is tied (with ND) for #1 in the country in scoring offense but in scoring defense, it's ranked #90. That's fine when playing Towson, FIU, American, CSU Bakersfield, Delaware State, Geo. Mason and Lafayette (all held to 50 points or less) but it ain't gonna get it done vs Baylor.

 

[Icebear]

The MD stats simply confirm what anyone watching them play defense for years knows. They are an average third decile defensive team in WCBB.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

The MD stats simply confirm what anyone watching them play defense for years knows. They are an average third decile defensive team in WCBB.

Usually.

A few years ago they beat RU at their home and actually played quite a bit of defense. RU wasn't ready for it. But they really made a big deal about how they could do it if they felt they needed to. Now, the offense may have suffered (I just don't remember) but clearly a lot of offense is not always required to beat RU.

 

[Icebear]

Indeed there are always exceptional games but 90% of the games MD over the last decade has had little commitment to defending.

 

[Vowelguy]

Indeed there are always exceptional games but 90% of the games MD over the last decade has had little commitment to defending.

Wow, you've seen >270 MD games?