He was projected to go anywhere from what, 13-20? Roughly? To him, that was worth leaving school. Would he have left if he were projected to go 29, which implies he could’ve fell to the 2nd round? I kinda doubt it.
Still, there’s not much sense in applying hindsight because he made a decision that worked best for him given the facts at the time.
Having said all that, if he had come back and wound up turning in a BEPOY season, that heavily implies the incoming class and roster would’ve made a deep run in the NCAAT. Fringe lottery pick implies what, 12-15? That would’ve been an acceptable outcome.