Gonzaga vs. UNC...Who wins the title?

[art4life]

ZAGS!!!

 

[intlzncster]

f unc

 

[mauconnfan]

If the Zags can keep Meeks out of his comfort zone which is wiping up the boards, they win. Keep him at bay, even 12/8 and they win.

 

[willie99]

Actually, UNC wins, and then two days later the NCAA announces some baby sanctions for the 1,800 fake courses.

did you hear them talk about the allegations during the FF game? the announcers said "it's an ongoing investigation"!!!!!

no no no, it's actually a confession, big difference!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Chin Diesel]

Winner: Zags
Why: I picked them in my bracket.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If the game is called straight, Gonzaga probably wins. Bery is nowhere near 100%, and UNC takes a lot of bad shots. Gonzaga is a very disciplined team offensively and talented enough to hang with UNC. The bad shots should catch up with UNC eventually.

If the game is not called straight, UNC wins and we get lectures from the broadcast team and every website, newspaper and studio anchor for weeks about how the talent is so much better at the P5 schools.

 

[QDOG5]

Early prediction - and not much of a stretch - North Carolina cuts down the nets this year. ALL their big men are a little better this season and Joel Berry is a much improved shooter. UNC will rebound teams into submission all year. I wrote that in late November but I'm changing my pick to the Zags. UNC makes too many bonehead mistakes. If the Zags can keep the rebounding numbers close I think they win.

 

[8893]

If Gonzaga wins I win.

 

[RUSS56]

The road to the Finals was paved with land mines, we saw a lot of upsets, that saw SC, and Oregon breaking through, but in the end NC and Gonzaga, the nation`s best two teams survived. It is going to come down to a few things, and here is how I see it. NC has for the most part dominated teams on the glass, and thrive on 2nd chance opportunities, but Gonzaga has size and athleticism, and has been out-rebounded just 6 times all season. They have been out-rebounded by 7 just 1 time, and won by 27. NC is 13-3 ATS when they have a rebound margin of 12 or more, where they are also 17-0 SU. When the rebound margin is less than 12, Carolina is 4-14-2 ATS, and 13-7 SU. You can see how important this stat is to Carolina. Carolina does not fare well when they have an off shooting night, as they are 5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS when they shoot 42% or less, and Gonzaga has only allowed 7 teams to shoot better than 42% against them all season. Gonzaga has out-shot every team they have played against this season, and the Heels are 4-12 ATS when they are out-shot by their opponent. Gonzaga certainly had the easier schedule, but is 9-0 SU vs power-conferences, if you include 1-0 vs the Big East. So these are the critical areas for NC, and Gonzaga matches up well in those areas, but there is another big area to reveal. There is no question Meeks, Jackson, and Barry are the 3 best players for NC. The player in that trio has had the greatest impact win or lose is Barry. You can even add Hicks to the mix. Here are those 4 players season average, and also their average when they fail to cover:

Season average first followed by average in ATS losses, followed by the difference:

Jackson 18.3 18.1 -0.2
Berry 14.5 10.6 -3.9****
Meeks 11.7 12.7 -1.0
Hicks 10.9 11.8 -0.9

As you can see Joel Barry is by far the key here, as the other 3 have averages that basically are even cover or not, but Carolina struggles considerably when Barry has an off scoring night. That is important because he is hobbled right now with 2 bad ankles, and after playing poorly the last 2 games, not able to explode, or elevate on 3`s, he has been 6-26 from the field, and 2-13 from deep. They need scoring from Barry as you see from above, and after playing 48 hours ago on bad ankles, they can`t be any better tonight, and may be worse. This looks like a great spot for Gonzaga, as all the numbers that Carolina needs to work in their favor, show plenty of resistance from the other side. Make the play on Gonzaga.

 

[IMind]

I hate both teams. I was leaning towards UNC because I hate Gonzaga and had predicted that they choke like they always do, but I'm man enough to know when I'm wrong. They're a pretty damn good team. I also heard Roy Williams speak in a post game interview and decided I probably want Gonzaga to win, not to mention the fact that the CBS crew was acting as if the NCAA investigation was some unfair burden that was placed on UNC.

 

[White Dwarf]

Zags win. Better coaching.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I want the Zags, but I'm leading my office pool and my final pick was UNC over Gonzaga. So if it's the heels, I win. Let's be honest, Gonzaga's path thus far has been really easy. West Virginia was the only strong team they have faced.

 

[auror]

The road to the Finals was paved with land mines, we saw a lot of upsets, that saw SC, and Oregon breaking through, but in the end NC and Gonzaga, the nation`s best two teams survived. It is going to come down to a few things, and here is how I see it. NC has for the most part dominated teams on the glass, and thrive on 2nd chance opportunities, but Gonzaga has size and athleticism, and has been out-rebounded just 6 times all season. They have been out-rebounded by 7 just 1 time, and won by 27. NC is 13-3 ATS when they have a rebound margin of 12 or more, where they are also 17-0 SU. When the rebound margin is less than 12, Carolina is 4-14-2 ATS, and 13-7 SU. You can see how important this stat is to Carolina.

I appreciate the analysis, but rebound margin needs to die. It doesn't isolate just rebounding. Find OR and DR%.

I want the Zags, but I'm leading my office pool and my final pick was UNC over Gonzaga. So if it's the heels, I win. Let's be honest, Gonzaga's path thus far has been really easy. West Virginia was the only strong team they have faced.

This is the exact situation I'm in.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Don't want the pampered blue blood to win, would like to see Few win and stand to win money if the Zags win. My only contention to all that is look at the transfer / team development disparity. 3 first year transfers in the starting lineup vs developed upperclassmen. Not a big fan of that, but Few did do a heck of a job with something KO couldn't pull off though.

 

[intlzncster]

If Gonzaga wins I win.

If Gonzaga wins, we all win.

 

[intlzncster]

Don't want the pampered blue blood to win, would like to see Few win and stand to win money if the Zags win. My only contention to all that is look at the transfer / team development disparity. 3 first year transfers in the starting lineup vs developed upperclassmen. Not a big fan of that, but Few did do a heck of a job with something KO couldn't pull off though.

Transfers are the norm in MCBB now. It's just something people haven't gotten really used to yet.

 

[8893]

If Gonzaga wins, we all win.

Yes.

Well, except for the three people in my pool who have UNC winning it.

 

[intlzncster]

Yes.

Well, except for the three people in my pool who have UNC winning it.

f them too. heathens.

 

[8893]

f them too. heathens.

Agreed.

 

[Lefty2one]

If Karnowski & Collins can neutralize Meeks then I think Gonzaga will win. Berry not being at 100% is a killer for UNC, their backcourt situation is ugly without him at full strength. They essentially got nothing out of two starters (Berry, Hicks) against Oregon, they won't be able to get away with that tonight. I'm sure Jackson will have another big game but I don't think it'll be enough. The Zags also execute better on offense from what I've seen.

I guess the wildcard is that Gonzaga hasn't faced a team with UNC's size or athleticism this year. I don't think it'll be a big enough to stop the Bulldogs though.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Transfers are the norm in MCBB now. It's just something people haven't gotten really used to yet.

3 of the top 4 scorers? That's gotta be a first.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

I don't understand the hate for UNC. The whole "fake class" scandal seems ambiguous as it relates to the men's basketball team, if that is the reason for hatred.
Roy Williams runs a great program, not filled with one and dones, but consistent greatness and team basketball. We also have a common enemy with them in Duke.
Plus Roy has shown much respect for UConn and they wanted us in the ACC.

 

[intlzncster]

I don't understand the hate for UNC. The whole "fake class" scandal seems ambiguous as it relates to the men's basketball team, if that is the reason for hatred.
Roy Williams runs a great program, not filled with one and dones, but consistent greatness and team basketball. We also have a common enemy with them in Duke.
Plus Roy has shown much respect for UConn and they wanted us in the ACC.

Ambiguous????? Dude, McCants is the one player who blew the lid. At the bare minimum, they should have a season and a NC vacated. The minimum. It won't happen though.

In the fall of 2004, McCants failed two of his four classes (psychology and algebra) at UNC. Four months later, after leading the Tar Heels to the national title, after all that travel and all those late nights playing basketball and the month-long carnival that is tournament basketball, McCants finished the spring semester with straights A’s in four classes.

And Williams knew nothing about this unbelievable turnaround.

Look at the 2005 championship team:

Jackie Manuel - AFAM degree
Sean May - AFAM degree
David Noel - AFAM degree
Melvin Scott - AFAM degree
Reyshawn Terry - AFAM degree
Quentin Thomas - AFAM degree
Jawad Williams - AFAM degree
Marvin Williams - No degree
Raymond Felton - No degree
Rashad McCants - No degree

I mean seriously. Clean program my @ss. And They've whitewashed MBB involvement. Pinning it on WBB hahahahah. Too much

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

Ambiguous????? Dude, McCants is the one player who blew the lid. At the bare minimum, they should have a season and a NC vacated. The minimum. It won't happen though.

They've whitewashed MBB involvement. Pinning it on WBB hahahahah. Too much

Admittedly, I didn't pay too much attention to it. But it's not a reason for me to hate the current UNC team that had nothing to do with the scandal. And from what I see, the current staff wasn't involved (?)

All I know is Roy Williams seems like a good dude and he has a very likable team.

If news comes out that Roy Williams was involved, then forget me.

 

[intlzncster]

Admittedly, I didn't pay too much attention to it. But it's not a reason for me to hate the current UNC team that had nothing to do with the scandal. And from what I see, the current staff wasn't involved (?)

All I know is Roy Williams seems like a good dude and he has a very likable team. If news comes out that Roy Williams was involved, then forget me.

I edited my post above after I wrote it. The ENTIRE 2005 team were African American Studies majors, the fake program in question. 7 got their 'degrees' in it. And Williams didn't know? Come on.

Also, the UNC whistleblower claims Williams involvement through the academic advisor/tutor.

I don't hate the current kids at all. They had nothing to do with it. But UNC administration and Roy Williams (and associated staff) can go suck it.