Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 4 - UConn v. Notre Dame | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 4 - UConn v. Notre Dame

cferraro04

cferraro04

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Game Analysis - NCAA National Championship - Game 4

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Let’s get ready to punch a ticket to the Final Four. Notre Dame is basically a one-dimensional team with Prosper and Cowles tagging along. If you can starve, at least somewhat, the head of the snake, ND, will fall. It has already happened 10 times this season. Yes, I get it, ND is a different team than they were at the start of the season, but so is UConn. I also get it that Hildago has been trying really hard to paint her squad as the victim/underdog…” nobody expected us to be here”…well, that may be true…but “lady luck” can only take you so far.

Notre Dame is not a disaster of a team, not at all. They have an RPI of 19 and a SoS of 21. Their NET Ranking is also 21. These are all respectable metrics. Even though Hidalgo is averaging an obscene 5.7 steals per game and the team averages a respectable 13.4 steals per game, their defensive Ranking is 87.8, which places their ranking nationally at 125th. Against UConn’s potent offense, I expect that they will fall short in that category. Since they only play a 7-player rotation with the starting five averaging about 33 minutes per game, I also expect to see them fairly “gassed” somewhere around mid-third quarter.

Notre Dame averages 72.8 points per game, but against a motivated UConn team that wants to show that their Sweet 15 game was an anomaly and is looking forward to making it to yet another Final Four, I think it will be hard for ND to break 60 points. They are just short of abysmal when it comes to three-point shooting (6.3 three-pointers per game), but they will make it up on Hildago’s penetration drives and in the paint scoring. However, once again, I believe they will fall short, and this will be a thirty-plus point win for UConn. ND averages 34.4 rebounds, 14.2 assists, and 3.2 blocks per game. They do take pretty good care of the basketball, only turning the ball over 13.1 times per game while forcing 20.1 turnovers on their opponents. UConn will need to be careful and not get sloppy with the basketball, or ND’s band of thieves, led by master thief Hildago, will make them pay.

Notre Dame’s challenge will be stopping or slowing down UConn’s potent (#1 in the country) offense. UConn averages 88.4 points, 9.4 three-pointers, 37.8 rebounds, 23.6 assists, 15.7 steals, and 33.2 points off turnovers while only turning the ball over 12.6 times per game. UConn’s RPI is 3; they have a SoS of 27, and they have the number one NET ranking as well as the number one Defensive ranking in the country.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6’4” - Senior Forward v. Malaya Cowles, 6’3” - Graduate Forward - Malaya Cowles averages 8.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.7 steals, and .8 blocks per game. Malaya averages 28 minutes per game. Serah is averaging 6.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .7 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game in 17.7 minutes of play. While these two players statistically look very similar, here is where I think Serah’s defensive bonifides will separate her from Malaya. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6’2” - Sophomore Forward v. Cassandre Prosper, 6’3” - Senior Guard - Cassandre is a tall guard and probably should be listed as a Forward. She averages 13.9 points, .5 three-pointers, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Cassandre plays 33.2 minutes per game. Sarah averages 18.5 points, 1.6 three-pointers, 7.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.4 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game in 26.6 minutes of play… ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5’11” - Graduate Guard v. Iyanna Moore, 5’8” - Graduate Guard. Iyanna averages 12.0 points, 2.4 three-pointers, 3.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and .3 blocks per game. Iyanna averages 31.5 minutes per game. Azzi averages 17.6 points, 3.1 three-pointers, 2.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.5 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi averages 28.1 minutes per game. Azzi will be looking for a bounce-back game after what was an underwhelming show during the North Carolina game. I think Iyanna is about to find out what happens when you Fudd-around with Azzi. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5’9” - Junior Guard v. Hannah Hidalgo, 5’6” - Junior Guard. Now this is the match-up to watch. One of the country’s best offensive players versus one of the country’s best defensive players, and this is not to detract from Hannah’s exceptional defense play in its own right. I think while KK may be successful in holding Hannah below her averages in the short term, she will eventually find ways to score even when Geno starts switching Heckel (a good defender in her own right) in for KK. Hannah leads ND in almost every category and is every bit a first-team All-American. She averages 25.3 points, 1.0 three-pointers, 6.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 5.7 steals, and .3 blocks per game. She is somewhat turnover-prone, which comes with having the ball in your hands most of the time. Hannah averages 36.2 minutes per game. KK is averaging 7.2 points, .5 three-pointers, 2.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.7 steals, and .1 blocks per game. KK averages 24.3 minutes per game. Even with Heckel splitting time with KK statistically accumulatively, they fall short of the juggernaut play of Hannah Hildago - ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME

Ashlynn Shade, 5’10” - Junior Guard v. Venesa DeJesus, 5’8” - Graduate Guard - Venesa averages 8.4 points, 1.5 three-pointers, 2.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 steals, and .2 blocks per game. Venesa plays 34.1 minutes per game. Ashlynn averages 7.8 points, 1.3 three-pointers, 3.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and .1 blocks per game. Ashlynn plays seven and a half minutes less per game than Venesa. Ashlynn averages 26.9 minutes per game. If you simply compare these players statistically, it would appear that the match-up would be nearly even. However, on a per-minute comparison, the advantage clearly shifts towards Ashlynn. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

While UConn has shortened its bench somewhat in the NCAA tournament, Notre Dame is only playing two players off the bench, KK Bransford and Gisela Sanchez. Together, Bransford and Sanchez account for 13.3 points, .9 three-pointers, 7.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. UConn, on the other hand, will bring Blanca, Kayleigh, Allie, and Jana off the bench. Together they average 29.2 points, 3.1 three-pointers, 11.8 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Niele Ivy and her coaching staff versus Geno and his. Niele deserves some credit for getting ND this far. The UConn coaching staff is ready for this run. They know ND well, they have great scouting reports, and they have the horses to get the job done. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UCONN’s desire to put the North Carolina debacle behind them and their motivation to get to yet another final four is enough to offset ND’s perceived underdog mentality. Notre Dame is running on fumes while UConn is well rested and deep. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 85
NOTRE DAME - 54
MOV - 31
 
My only concern going into this game is that we always seem to think that our depth will wear down an opponent. Maybe not against ND. I don't like the fact that Sarah wanted to come out of the game against UNC and Geno kept her in. This might reinforce the opinion of some Boneyarders that we needed to stop pulling the starters out not later than the start of the fourth qtr and therefore did not get them in shape for 38 minutes, while Hannah Hildago has shown the ability to go the full 40.
 
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UConn vs Notre Dame (Elite Eight) | Torvik Stats Legend

IMG_1620.jpeg


Head-to-Head: 1/19/2026: ND 47, UC 85 - FINAL

Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Torvik | SRCBB
 
Another classic game to go with all the other classic games. Last year when we played Tennessee and lost, that was geno's and the team wake up call. The North Carolina game 2 days ago is the wake up call for this season and I believe a sleeping giant will come out of that game and will play for the next 3 games and finish the season as NO.13. GO HUSKIES!!!!!
 
Can UConn shoot free throws? I think they shot only 73.9% for the year. Vandy was 21/25 from the line against ND.
Hidalgo should have fouled out mid way through the 4th quarter. ND obviously felt foul them and they won't call all of them. They got away with murder. Will they try and be super physical against UConn hoping either they won't all get called or that UConn won't hit the FT?
 
Well, this is the Elite 8 matchup that I didn’t want, but I was afraid that Vanderbilt would not be able to handle the pressure of the game and Hannah Hidalgo. She may not be POY (Sarah Strong), but she is the most dangerous player in women’s college basketball and the one that I least want to see on the opposing team.

If Hidalgo as dynamic as she was against Vanderbilt, the Huskies will have a tough game, particularly if the team is cold from the 3-point line and misses a lot of layups. If Arnold, Heckel, and whomever can keep Hidalgo under control and that means holding her to 20 or less points and can avoid turnovers, then UConn should march on to the Final Four.

Thanks to Quinonez in the first period, Strong in the second, and Fudd in the third, the Huskies gradually pulled away. Unfortunately, the team got little from the two centers and that is a real concern, perhaps not so much against the Irish, but if the Huskies advance to the Final Four, then they will need more production from the center position.

With regards to the team’s performance against the Tar Heels, being 4-20 from 3-points is not a winning formula nor is 26-65 from the field. Fortunately, UNC was even worse from 3-point range and the team committed 24 turnovers. Survive and advance is the formula and the Huskies survived with a less than stellar performance.

With regard to the matchups posted by cferraro04, I disagree with one and question a second - Serah Williams over Malaya Cowles and Ashlynn Shade over Vanesa DeJesus. Williams has underachieved all season and I find it difficult to rate her as superior to any opposing center. With regards to Shade and DeJesus, I would rate it as a tossup.
 
BfromCT said:
Well, this is the Elite 8 matchup that I didn’t want, but I was afraid that Vanderbilt would not be able to handle the pressure of the game and Hannah Hidalgo. She may not be POY (Sarah Strong), but she is the most dangerous player in women’s college basketball and the one that I least want to see on the opposing team.

If Hidalgo as dynamic as she was against Vanderbilt, the Huskies will have a tough game, particularly if the team is cold from the 3-point line and misses a lot of layups. If Arnold, Heckel, and whomever can keep Hidalgo under control and that means holding her to 20 or less points and can avoid turnovers, then UConn should march on to the Final Four.

Thanks to Quinonez in the first period, Strong in the second, and Fudd in the third, the Huskies gradually pulled away. Unfortunately, the team got little from the two centers and that is a real concern, perhaps not so much against the Irish, but if the Huskies advance to the Final Four, then they will need more production from the center position.

With regards to the team’s performance against the Tar Heels, being 4-20 from 3-points is not a winning formula nor is 26-65 from the field. Fortunately, UNC was even worse from 3-point range and the team committed 24 turnovers. Survive and advance is the formula and the Huskies survived with a less than stellar performance.

With regard to the matchups posted by cferraro04, I disagree with one and question a second - Serah Williams over Malaya Cowles and Ashlynn Shade over Vanesa DeJesus. Williams has underachieved all season and I find it difficult to rate her as superior to any opposing center. With regards to Shade and DeJesus, I would rate it as a tossup.
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I agree with the Serah comment - I am concerned that Geno has waited too long for her to get with the program at the expense of Jana’s development. The offense just doesn’t flow with Serah in and Geno will have to rely on a quick trigger pivoting to Blanca
 
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Concerned that when KK goes out of game whether K9 can keep her under control. K9 is a high energy defender but is not as quick as Hidalgo. Few are. The good news is that UConn has tall guards and a great helping defense. In the same sense, while Hidalgo often plays the role of defensive stopper , I believe she is only 5'6" and while a great defender, will have to go against much taller Azzi and K9 and their many drives.
 
I like ND and what Niele has done with the team after the diaspora at the end of last season. And Hannah is a superstar. The key with teams that feature a superstar is 1) to play the scout, and 2) not worry if the star has a big game. Hannah will get her points somehow some way. What matters is to shut everyone else down, especially Cass and Vanessa, and KK Bransford off the bench. They are solid players who know their business. Hannah’s 25 or so points is not enough to win, if she doesn’t get a lot of help from these teammates.

Two players I’d worry about even though they are mediocre talents. First, Malaya has improved her play simply by understanding her role and positioning as the season progressed. She’s still slowfooted and has a spotty midrange game. But she is strong and can hold onto rebounds. Second, Gisela Sanchez is long and moves well, though she’s not a shooting threat. She also plays with an emotional edge and seemed to develop some resentment of Ash last game. At one point, she seemed on the verge of throwing hands.

The problem for ND, as for every team, is to deal with our superstars — Sarah and Azzi — ans well ans our supporting cast of stars like KK Ash Kayleigh Allie and Jana. And the extra difficulty is, of course, to deal with Blanca, who is incredibly talented and utterly unpredictable. Last game she had too many TOs. I suspect she’ll have outgrown this little flaw and cause havoc all over the court.
 
BfromCT:

Serah Williams, 6’4” - Senior Forward v. Malaya Cowles, 6’3” - Graduate Forward -

Malaya Cowles.................Per 40 min.................Serah Williams......................Per 40 min.
8.0 points.........................11.43...........................6.9 points............................15.59
5.4 rebounds......................7,71...........................4.5 rebounds.......................10.17
1.4 assists..........................1.63...........................1.6 assists.............................3. 62
1.7 steals............................2.43.......................xx.7 steals.................................1.58
.8 blocks.............................1.14..........................1.4 blocks...............................3.16
28 minutes per game...........................................17.7 minutes

Put her per-40-minute advantage together with her defensive abilities... she was the Big 10 defensive player of the year last year, and I think I was being polite when I said that Serah was slightly favored. When you factor in each player's defense and put the stats on a per 40-minute basis, clearly it is ADVANTAGE - Serah

We have a similar situation with Ashlynn:

Ashlynn Shade, 5’10” - Junior Guard v. Venesa DeJesus, 5’8” - Graduate Guard -

Venesa DeJesus..........Per 40 min. Ashlynn Shade Per 40 min.
8.4 points.....................9.85.................................7.8 points.......................11.6
1.5 three-pointers.........1.8................................. 1.3 three-pointers...........1.93
2.7 rebounds................3.17.................................3.5 rebounds..................5.20
2.8 assists....................3.28................................. 2.9 assists .....................4.31
1.8 steals......................2.11................................. 1.8 steals.......................2.11
.2 blocks ....................x.23......................................1 blocks......................x.15
34.1 minutes .......................................................26.9 minutes

Clearly, based on the actual minutes played, the match-up is pretty even; however, when you factor in statistics per 40 minutes, Ashlynn clearly dominates the match-up. Factor in each player's defensive play, and I don't see the results changing...ADVANTAGE - Ash
 
Last edited:
DemonDeac22 said:
Really? Didn’t you also predict that we’d lose to Tennessee in Feb by 6 and that we’d only beat Syracuse by 4 points? I’d be genuinely interested in hearing your detailed thoughts behind this one.
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I haven't checked but I wonder if it's posted in the Prognostication thread?
 
Again great job sensei!
There are too many talented players on UConn for ND to stop!
Yes HH is multi talented but Geno will set up a plan to use as many different players to cover her and make it harder for her to do her usual damage!
I agree with those above that say UConn will be super motivated to show that the NoCar game was a fiasco with the rims, new basketballs, etc.
This is what UConn has been working for all season, they won't let it slip away!
 
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